Earlier today I published an analytical essay on how major international broadcasters are playing into the Hamas strategy by publicizing the atrocities of the Palestinian fighters, thereby putting pressure on Netanyahu to act recklessly. Meanwhile, they say almost nothing about the forces which Hamas can muster in the Arab world as the conflict escalates.

Here I offer the link to an interview this afternoon with WION, India’s leading English language global broadcaster, in which we talked about the risks Israel will incur if they proceed with a bloody ground invasion of Gaza.

See  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhZmMTu2BcE

Transcript by Andreas Mylaeus

October 11, 2023

Israel-Palestine war: Can regional players negotiate ceasefire as Russia, China want a stake | WION

WION

Bhairavi Singh:

And we now have Dr. Gilbert Doctorow joining us live from Brussels. He is an international affairs analyst, author and historian. Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, thanks very much indeed for joining us on the show. I want to begin by saying that there is a lot of misinformation out there to sift through. There are always going to be two narratives, two stories. But now it seems the gap is unbridgeable. The scale of the violence is unprecedented. What happens next according to you? Children, babies, have been killed in Israel while Gaza has been cut off. There is no food, there is no water supplies. This is a massive humanitarian crisis on both sides.

Gilbert Doctorow:

This is a massive military crisis on both sides. I’d like to point out that by the nature of news cycles, by the nature of major global news providers like CNN, like BBC, like yourselves, the humanitarian side of this disaster is easier to comprehend and easier to present on the screen. The military side tends to be more abstract, experts speaking about the various military capabilities of this or that group in the Middle East and it is less attractive and receives less television time.

However, both sides of the story are equally important and in emphasizing these horrible massacres which you are correct about – in fact, not you the station WION – but the news industry is playing into the hands of Hamas because these massacres, these atrocities were not committed by angry Muslim youth. They were committed by hardened soldiers who are acting clearly under instructions to do what they have done for military purposes. The military purpose here is to draw the Israeli Army into a lair, into a trap, which is what Gaza will be during a ground invasion. Mr. Netanyahu is under great pressure from the public everywhere to do that.

Bhairavi Singh:

Right, okay. I take your point there that this is not just a humanitarian crisis but a military one as well and then therefore the question being: can this become a fullscale regional war? Israel’s northern front has been hit by missiles from the Hezbollah, Syria. Turkey is at odds with the U.S. about sending a carrier ship. How do you see this panning out?

Gilbert Doctorow:

Well, I think you have identified the most important local regional factor and that is Hezbollah in Lebanon. So far the exchange across the border between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has been very modest, only symbolic. There are estimates that Hezbollah has 100,000 missiles that it can fire against Israel. When the supreme religious leader of Iran spoke on television yesterday, saying that the West underestimates the capabilities the skills, the dedication of Palestinians, he was right on target.

The issue is that Hamas has allies in the region the most important of which, the most powerful of which, is Hezbollah. So if Israel goes into Gaza and commits the acts that it is now prepared to do, which will be massive destruction, the loss of perhaps thousands of lives among the Israeli Defense Force and the loss of lives one factor, 10 times more perhaps among Gaza civilians, then that will regionalize the war. That will bring in volunteers from Syria, from Iraq, from Yemen, all under the instructions and training of Hezbollah and then you have a real threat to the existence of Israel.

Bhairavi Singh:

Right. Well, that’s not a pretty picture at all. Where do you think the West is coming in? The U.S. is deploying weapons systems. But at the same time the U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is on his way to Israel. They say, it’s an attempt to find some middle ground. You know, a possible ceasefire. But given the situation, is that even possible?

Gilbert Doctorow:

It is possible, if it’s not done by the United States alone. If the United States believes that it can monopolize the solution-finding to this problem, then we will have an unmitigated disaster. There are other states in the region, including Egypt, including Turkey, there is at some distance Russia, who are all interested in finding a diplomatic and peaceful solution to this, not just the United States.

The position that President Putin said on television yesterday is that his country stands for implementation of the United Nations resolutions on the creation of a two-state outcome in Palestine: Israel and Palestine. There are other countries in the region which are equally interested in such an outcome. They have to get together among themselves and not fight with one another over who has the lead role or the only role in finding a solution.

Bhairavi Singh:

Right. But the stakes are really high here for the Netanyahu government that is under immense pressure, both by the domestic voters on one side, but the hardline factions in its own government on the way forward. You say that a ceasefire is possible if there are outside foreign countries and other stakeholders in this. But domestically, is there an appetite for that at all?

Gilbert Doctorow:

After all, Israel is left with no choice. It isn’t a question of what Israel would like. Israel’s very existence will be put in question if it follows the line that Mr. Netanyahu is now about to take under pressure from the public in Israel and the world over the atrocities. If he goes in and does massive destruction in Gaza it will regionalize the conflict and he and Israel will lose control of the situation. So the best solution for all the parties is indeed a ceasefire now, before things get totally out of hand. And a ceasefire would be best put in place by the major powers getting together and I add China to the list, not by the United States acting on its own as global leader.

Bhairavi Singh:

Right, not by U.S. alone, of course. There are regional factors, regional players in this and also Russia and China wanting to have a stake in this negotiation as well and given the fact that Hamas in some reports has indicated that they are willing to talk now that they have found a way into this war and on the winning side by at least by some in some narratives.

Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, pleasure talking to you. Thanks very much indeed for joining us.

Gilbert Doctorow:

Thanks for the invitation.