Ladies and gentlemen, let me open this discussion with an out-of-the-box explanation as to why Russia appears to be laid back over the destruction of one of its early warning radar installations in the south of the country and undetermined damage to another during the past week. This, while the Western mainstream media speak of severe impairment to Russia’s defenses and some military experts in the USA publish denunciations of the Biden administration for exposing the country to nuclear attack from Russia caused by false positives on their monitors that arise in the final minutes of a supposed attack due to the absence of suitable ground radar to double check what the inadequate Russian satellite warning system tells them.
The fundamental issue, as I see it, was flagged long ago when President Putin said that Russia responds in an asymmetric manner to whatever challenges the US and allied militaries present. Washington pulled out of the treaty on ABMs under George W. Bush thereby undermining the foundations of nuclear deterrence and the Russians then headed off in their own direction to find and implement a devastating counter-measure.
As it turns out, Russia’s IT geniuses who went abroad in the Yeltsin years to set up Google and other wonderful and powerful corporations in Silicon Valley serving primarily the consumer sector did not drain Russia of its brainpower. Indeed, more than enough patriotic IT geniuses remained in country to provide Mr. Putin and the country at large with an adequate talent pool to engineer and produce what, 22 years later, we recognize as world-beating Russian defense systems.
No one in the West talks about the implications of what the Russians have developed and in particular what it means in the present context of concern that the poor, blinded Russians do not get early warning of a nuclear attack. Let me say it out loud: the Russians have first nuclear strike capability thanks to their newly introduced Sarmat missiles carrying smaller, unstoppable hypersonic missiles as payload. A fully loaded Sarmat can level to the ground a country the size of the UK; several of them can fairly well erase the USA from the map. In addition the Russians have short to medium range hypersonic missiles that can be launched from frigates 400 km off America’s shores. And they are working on a nuclear torpedo (Poseidon) that alone can take out entire cities in the tsunamis they create.
What this means is that there is a good probability that when push comes to shove, when their intelligence reports the concentration of nuclear cruise and ballistic armed US submarines in the Arabian Gulf for example, when their satellites tell them about missile concentrations in Western, Central and Eastern Europe that have an ominous message, they will threaten and possibly carry out a devastating first strike against the USA, which as they say openly, is the puppet master not only in Ukraine but in all of Western Europe.
The second argument for not looking down our noses at the Russian military for failing to have an equivalent to the US global missile launch detection capability is the investment the Russians have made in building their own version of Iron Domes to protect major cities, and presumably, major military infrastructure from U.S. nuclear attack.
Two days ago I understood what that means when listening to Great Game host Vyacheslav Nikonov talk about the attacks the day before (29 May) using U.S. ATACMS long range missiles fired from Ukraine against the area of the Kerch bridge and other targets deep in Russia.
See the opening minutes of this 46 minute segment of the program: https://rutube.ru/video/ef8865c657153655c76030b72c5ae5ac/
[see a transcript of this segment below, following the German translation]
Note that these attacks took place a day before President Biden officially announced U.S. acquiescence in Kiev’s intentions to strike inside Russia. The Biden team gave assurances that the weapons would be used exclusively against militarily valuable targets. The Kerch bridge to Crimea, of course, is now purely civilian infrastructure given that all Russian military deliveries to the front have long been redirected to land-based rail lines running parallel to the Sea of Azov that the Russians have expanded over the past year.
The point made by Nikonov is that all of these missiles were shot down by Russian air defense systems. An invited expert informed the audience that the American missiles have their weak spots which the Russians are exploring and exploiting to destroy them in the air.
This does not mean that Russian air defense is 100% reliable. But it means that as regards missiles of all kinds it does a great job. That contrasts, of course, with defense against the much harder to find smaller and more maneuverable incoming drones, which were the weapon of choice in the Ukrainian attack on Russian radar installations. But drones do not destroy cities and kill hundreds of thousands if not millions of people. Missiles do that.
On the same day, 4 – 6 unmanned British cutters valued at 6 million dollars each which were sent against Russian Black Sea vessels were destroyed by the Russian side.
These latest U.S. and British guided attacks were said to be proof that the U.S. led West now understands perfectly well that Ukraine is facing defeat and are doing what they can to raise the stakes. The F16s soon to be introduced into the conflict will be another major escalation by the West. They will be treated by Russia as a NATO nuclear armed task force to contain Russia. The French led effort to put together a coalition of providers of instructors on the ground in Ukraine is still another dimension of the very dangerous ongoing escalation.
Note: Nikonov and his panelists discussed these existential threats in calm and deliberate manner. None is certain how the Kremlin will respond to a successful attack nominally delivered by Ukraine but de facto Western-guided. Perhaps there will be a massive Russian attack made on the city of Kiev.
*****
I truly wonder what is the benefit of having a 15 minute advance warning of an incoming missile attack if, as is 100% certain, an automatic ‘Dead Hand’ launch has already been scripted. Moreover, what would be the sense of lifting the handset of a Red Phone to Washington to speak to….whom? Biden, Sullivan or any other of the liars and card cheats who populate the top echelons of the federal government? Not a trustworthy person among them with whom you would risk the fate of your nation.
The overriding message I wish to convey is that Americans have forgotten their old folk wisdom that “there are many different ways to skin a cat.” Experts in America’s dissident underground can be just as unwilling to comprehend that Russians are not weak and stupid as American generals and their minions in the press were saying when they denounced Russia’s opening moves in its Special Military Operation for failing to do what America does in such instances: use a Shock and Awe campaign to murder everyone and destroy everything in its path.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)
Erstschlagfähig: Warum es Russland gleichgültig ist, ob die eine oder andere bodengestützte Radaranlage beschädigt wird
Meine Damen und Herren, lassen Sie mich diese Diskussion mit einer unkonventionellen Erklärung dafür beginnen, warum Russland sich nach der Zerstörung einer seiner Frühwarnradaranlagen im Süden des Landes und der unbestimmten Beschädigung einer weiteren Anlage in der vergangenen Woche offenbar zurückhält. Dies, während die westlichen Mainstream-Medien von einer schwerwiegenden Beeinträchtigung der russischen Verteidigung sprechen und einige Militärexperten in den USA die Regierung Biden dafür anprangern, dass sie das Land einem nuklearen Angriff aus Russland aussetzt, weil ihre Monitore in den letzten Minuten eines vermeintlichen Angriffs falsch positive Signale anzeigen, weil es kein geeignetes Bodenradar gibt, um zu überprüfen, was das unzureichende russische Satellitenwarnsystem sagt.
Das grundsätzliche Problem wurde meines Erachtens schon vor langer Zeit angesprochen, als Präsident Putin sagte, dass Russland auf alle Herausforderungen, die die USA und die verbündeten Streitkräfte darstellen, asymmetrisch reagiert. Als Washington unter George W. Bush aus dem ABM-Vertrag ausstieg und damit die Grundlagen der nuklearen Abschreckung untergrub, machten sich die Russen auf den Weg, um eine verheerende Gegenmaßnahme zu finden und umzusetzen.
Wie sich herausstellt, haben die russischen IT-Genies, die in den Jelzin-Jahren ins Ausland gingen, um Google und andere wunderbare und mächtige Unternehmen im Silicon Valley zu gründen, die vor allem dem Verbrauchersektor dienen, Russland nicht um seine Intelligenz gebracht. Tatsächlich blieben mehr als genug patriotische IT-Genies im Lande, um Herrn Putin und das Land insgesamt mit einem angemessenen Talentpool zu versorgen, um das zu entwickeln und zu produzieren, was wir 22 Jahre später als weltbeste russische Verteidigungssysteme anerkennen.
Niemand im Westen spricht über die Auswirkungen dessen, was die Russen entwickelt haben, und insbesondere darüber, was es im gegenwärtigen Kontext der Sorge bedeutet, dass die armen, verblendeten Russen keine Frühwarnung vor einem Atomangriff erhalten. Lassen Sie es mich laut sagen: Die Russen sind dank ihrer neu eingeführten Sarmat-Raketen, die kleinere, unaufhaltsame Hyperschallraketen als Nutzlast tragen, zum nuklearen Erstschlag fähig. Eine voll beladene Sarmat kann ein Land von der Größe des Vereinigten Königreichs dem Erdboden gleichmachen; mehrere Sarmat-Raketen können die USA ziemlich sicher von der Landkarte tilgen. Darüber hinaus verfügen die Russen über Hyperschallraketen mit kurzer bis mittlerer Reichweite, die von Fregatten 400 km vor Amerikas Küsten gestartet werden können. Und sie arbeiten an einem Atomtorpedo (Poseidon), der allein durch die von ihm ausgelösten Tsunamis ganze Städte auslöschen kann.
Das bedeutet, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit groß ist, dass die Russen, wenn es hart auf hart kommt, wenn ihre Geheimdienste beispielsweise die Konzentration von atomar bewaffneten Kreuzfahrt- und ballistischen US-U-Booten im Arabischen Golf melden, wenn ihre Satelliten sie über Raketenkonzentrationen in West-, Mittel- und Osteuropa informieren, die eine unheilvolle Botschaft enthalten, mit einem verheerenden Erstschlag gegen die USA drohen und diesen möglicherweise auch durchführen werden, die, wie sie offen sagen, nicht nur in der Ukraine, sondern in ganz Westeuropa der Marionettenspieler sind.
Das zweite Argument dafür, dass wir das russische Militär nicht von oben herab betrachten sollten, weil es nicht über ein dem US-Raketenabwehrsystem entsprechendes System verfügt, sind die Investitionen, die die Russen in den Bau ihrer eigenen Version von Iron Domes getätigt haben, um Großstädte und vermutlich auch wichtige militärische Infrastrukturen vor einem US-Atomangriff zu schützen.
Vor zwei Tagen wurde mir klar, was das bedeutet, als ich dem Moderator von Great Game, Wjatscheslaw Nikonow, zugehört habe, der über die Angriffe sprach, die am Vortag (29. Mai) mit US-amerikanischen ATACMS-Langstreckenraketen von der Ukraine aus auf das Gebiet der Brücke von Kertsch und andere Ziele tief in Russland abgefeuert wurden.
Sehen Sie die ersten Minuten dieses 46-minütigen Programmteils: https://rutube.ru/video/ef8865c657153655c76030b72c5ae5ac/
Beachten Sie, dass diese Angriffe einen Tag vor der offiziellen Ankündigung von Präsident Biden stattfanden, dass die USA die Absicht Kiews, innerhalb Russlands zuzuschlagen, billigen. Das Biden-Team versicherte, dass die Waffen ausschließlich gegen militärisch wertvolle Ziele eingesetzt würden. Die Brücke von Kertsch zur Krim ist natürlich jetzt eine rein zivile Infrastruktur, da alle russischen Militärlieferungen an die Front seit langem auf landgestützte Eisenbahnlinien umgelenkt wurden, die parallel zum Asowschen Meer verlaufen und die die Russen im vergangenen Jahr ausgebaut haben.
Nikonov wies darauf hin, dass alle diese Raketen von russischen Luftabwehrsystemen abgeschossen wurden. Ein eingeladener Experte teilte dem Publikum mit, dass die amerikanischen Raketen ihre Schwachstellen haben, die die Russen erforschen und ausnutzen, um sie in der Luft zu zerstören.
Dies bedeutet nicht, dass die russische Luftabwehr zu 100 % zuverlässig ist. Aber es bedeutet, dass sie in Bezug auf Raketen aller Art hervorragende Arbeit leistet. Dies steht natürlich im Gegensatz zur Verteidigung gegen die viel schwieriger zu findenden kleineren und wendigeren Drohnen, die beim ukrainischen Angriff auf die russischen Radaranlagen die Waffe der Wahl waren. Aber Drohnen zerstören keine Städte und töten Hunderttausende, wenn nicht Millionen von Menschen. Das tun Raketen.
Am selben Tag wurden vier bis sechs unbemannte britische Kutter im Wert von je sechs Millionen Dollar, die gegen russische Schiffe im Schwarzen Meer eingesetzt wurden, von der russischen Seite zerstört.
Diese jüngsten US-amerikanischen und britischen Angriffe gelten als Beweis dafür, dass der von den USA geführte Westen inzwischen genau weiß, dass der Ukraine eine Niederlage droht, und dass er alles tut, um den Einsatz zu erhöhen. Die F16, die bald in den Konflikt eingeführt werden sollen, werden eine weitere große Eskalation des Westens darstellen. Sie werden von Russland als eine atomar bewaffnete NATO-Eingreiftruppe zur Eindämmung Russlands betrachtet werden. Die von Frankreich angeführten Bemühungen, eine Koalition von Ausbildern vor Ort in der Ukraine zusammenzustellen, sind eine weitere Dimension der sehr gefährlichen Eskalation.
Anmerkung: Nikonov und seine Diskussionsteilnehmer erörterten diese existenziellen Bedrohungen in ruhiger und überlegter Weise. Niemand weiß, wie der Kreml auf einen erfolgreichen Angriff reagieren wird, der nominell von der Ukraine ausgeht, de facto aber vom Westen gesteuert wird. Vielleicht wird es einen massiven russischen Angriff auf die Stadt Kiew geben.
*****
Ich frage mich wirklich, welchen Nutzen eine 15-minütige Vorwarnung vor einem eintreffenden Raketenangriff hat, wenn, wie es mit 100-prozentiger Sicherheit der Fall ist, ein automatischer „Dead Hand“-Abschuss bereits geplant ist. Welchen Sinn hätte es außerdem, den Hörer eines roten Telefons in Washington abzuheben, um mit….wem zu sprechen? Biden, Sullivan oder einem anderen der Lügner und Betrüger, die die obersten Ränge der US-Bundesregierung bevölkern? Unter ihnen gibt es nicht eine vertrauenswürdige Person, mit der Sie das Schicksal Ihrer Nation riskieren würden.
Die wichtigste Botschaft, die ich vermitteln möchte, ist, dass die Amerikaner ihre alte Volksweisheit vergessen haben, dass es „viele verschiedene Wege gibt, eine Katze zu häuten“. Experten in Amerikas dissidentem Untergrund können genauso wenig bereit sein zu begreifen, dass die Russen nicht schwach und dumm sind, wie amerikanische Generäle und ihre Lakaien in der Presse sagten, als sie Russlands erste Schritte in seiner speziellen Militäroperation anprangerten, weil sie nicht das taten, was Amerika in solchen Fällen tut: eine „Shock and Awe“-Kampagne durchführen, um jeden zu ermorden und alles in seinem Weg zu zerstören.
Translation to English of transcript
of the Great Game program (in Russian)
————————————————–
Vyacheslav Nikonov: 0:05
Good afternoon Live “Big Game” and me, Vyacheslav Nikonov. At these moments, Russian President Vladimir Putin is holding a video conference meeting with large families from different regions of our country. Today, on the eve of Children’s Day, words are naturally heard about how important the family is, as the main unit of society and as the guarantee of the future of our country, so yes, the question is very important. Today the President will present state awards, including to a number of very famous people, but for now I will not anticipate events.
0:42
The situation on the battlefield, and in the whole world, is, of course, characterized by escalation and increased stakes. Tonight, Ukrainian, and in fact not Ukrainian, Western armed forces launched a strike with high-precision ATACMS systems against targets in the Kerch region, in the Krasnodar Territory. At the same time, in fact, the British unmanned aerial vehicle carried out target setting while loitering over the Black Sea.
1:22
Our side, naturally, also did not sit idly by; a powerful blow was dealt to the Ukrainian armed forces, to military installations on the territory of Ukraine in various places. Once again they hit the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnytsky region, where American-made F-16 aircraft are planned to be stationed. Well, besides this, there were attacks on the Dnepropetrovsk, Cherkassy, Kirovograd, Zaporozhye, Odessa, Kherson, Vinnitsa, and Kyiv regions.
1:55
That is, escalation is underway. And on the battlefield the situation is also maintained. We maintain strategic initiative. But the West clearly feels that Kyiv is ready to lose and is ready to increase the stakes. Yuri Ivanovich Podolyako monitors the progress of the Special Military Operation. Yuri Ivanovich, do you agree that the West is now clearly beginning to cross certain red lines?
Yuri Podolyaako: 2:26
At least it’s probing them. It seems to me that it hasn’t crossed yet, because I closely followed the night attack on Kerch, and they didn’t hit the bridge. They tried to hit other targets, but we were able to protect them. Moreover, their so-called attack without crew boats was a complete failure, and, by the way, not the first. Over the last two months, they have somehow, I don’t want to get into, of course, these unsuccessful attacks, because the price, for example, of one boat, which is used for such attacks, is approximately a quarter of a million dollars,
3:00
that is, about 25 million rubles, a little more than a quarter of a million dollars. Yesterday they managed to hit two small boats worth 6 million each. At least four boats took part, that is, there were no net casualties among our guys. That is, there were boats standing near the pier, which were amazed by boats costing many times more. That is, the meaning of such exchanges, frankly speaking, is strange. One in ten at least in economics, not to mention training, and so on and so forth.
3:26
Even the same British drone that was spinning is still money, all these are expenses, well, that is, in fact, for now there is, well, at least I really hope, I don’t want to climb, we have weapons against these backs, again But we destroy many of them on the approach of our aviation, the Black Sea Fleet, that is, in general, there is a strategy to combat them. ATACMSs, too, like with any weapon, they also have their disadvantages, weak points, gradually we see, we are starting to make things simpler and simpler to destroy them.
3:54
That is, Wunderwaffe again fails, despite the fact that it was presented as Wunderwaffe. Well, yes, in such situations the West always tries to raise the stakes, tries to test for the possibility of crossing some red lines, in order to thus try to increase the degree of conflict without being directly drawn into the conflict.
4:12
For them, this is fundamentally important. Well, now, as I understand it, one of the lines outlined by our Foreign Ministry is that for NASA the delivery of the F-16 will be very significant in terms of parity and the possibility of using non-strategic nuclear forces, i.e. This is also a very important point, which I hope we can resolve to our advantage, although in any case, for the enemy, the attack from Stara Konstantin was very serious, there were a lot of things burning, exploding, detonating. If there really is such information that a base for the D-16 was being prepared there, if we destroyed it, then we destroyed the enemy’s months-long preparation for the deployment of these aircraft. We must understand that NATO aircraft cannot be stationed anywhere in Ukraine.
4:59
There is no base that was created under the Union to accommodate other aircraft. Accordingly, the destruction of any such base postpones the possibility of using these aircraft for a certain amount of time.
Nikonov: 5:11
So, what news from the fronts of the Special Military Operation?
Podolyako:
Well, you know, now in some directions where we attacked, regrouping is now underway. This is in the Kharkov direction. Both we and the enemy are obviously preparing a new battle. Moreover, it is very likely that the enemy will try to show some kind of victory for the summit in Switzerland. The only place where he can try to do something, due to the fact that he transferred a huge number of reserves to their direction, is the Kharkov direction.
5:39
Therefore, in the next two weeks there will be very fierce, powerful battles, and we must be prepared for this. But in the Chastoyarsk direction, after we stormed the positions for two weeks, there is now a certain calm, a regrouping is underway. As I understand it, in a week or two more active military operations will be resumed here. Well, our troops are developing serious activity in the Pokrovsky direction, in the Toretsky direction.
6:04
This is the Donetsk section. There are very active battles here. We are fighting for very important enemy fortified areas. I really hope that we will be able to break through the positions here and, accordingly, create problems for the enemy. Well, just like in Krasnogorovka, Nitailovo, where we took a completely populated area and are now trying to force the enemy to leave the position it is holding a little to the north with roundabout maneuvers. That is the general situation along the line of military contact.
Nikonov: 6:33
Yes, thank you very much, Yuri Ivanovich Podolyako, with, as always, an accurate analysis of the situation on the fronts of the Northern Military District. Let’s see which countries have given Ukraine consent to use their weapons against targets on the territory of our country. These are the countries. This is Canada, the United States has so far given half, but there are Finland, Sweden, Great Britain, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia.
7:02
Well, it must be said that most of these countries do not produce weapons, and they do not have their own weapons, they only have weapons that are supplied by other countries. And, in general, a lot depends on the fact that, on the contrary, they are not used their weapons, such as Italy. As for the use of these weapons, well, apparently, it has already begun, I have that feeling, at least the strikes from the ATACMSs. So they began to publish in the Western media the affected area of possible high-precision systems that the Ukrainian armed forces have, in fact the NATO armed forces, this is all the way to Kazan.
7:44
Moscow finds itself in a close defeat zone, in fact. These are serious means. There are countries that are still hesitating, but which are more likely inclined to apply it too. For example, Germany, until recently, was against the use, well, let’s consider what politics writes.
?????: 8:09
Germany is cautiously withdrawing from its words regarding allowing Ukraine to strike military targets on Russian territory. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Ukraine can use weapons supplied by Germany within the framework of international law. This did not sound so clear. Scholz’s press secretary, Steffen Hebbestreit, told reporters that Ukraine’s defensive actions are not limited to its own territory, but can extend to the territory of the aggressor, but stressed that he could not disclose the exact wording of the agreements with Kiev on the use of German weapons. Hebbestrait also said that Scholz’s statement a year ago about the consensus that Ukraine would not use German weapons on Russian territory was a statement of facts that were true at the time, but not necessarily true in the future.
8:57
Until the last moment, the United States of America also said that they were against the use of their weapons on our territory, but here is the latest information from The Washington Post. They still decided to use air defense systems against objects on our territory. Let’s listen.
9:15
About three weeks ago, shortly after Russia launched its offensive on Kharkov, Ukraine asked the United States to ease restrictions on the use of U.S.-provided weapons to attack targets inside Russia. Some senior officials support such a move. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on President Biden to agree to lift the restrictions. The White House is considering such a proposal, but no decisions have been made yet.
But according to one US official, there are no restrictions on Ukraine using US-supplied air defenses to fight Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory if they pose a threat to Ukraine.
Nikonov: 9:53
At the same time, our president the day before yesterday clearly said that we will consider these strikes not as strikes by Ukraine, but as strikes by those countries that, in fact, supply these weapons and carry out goal setting. The conflict becomes more dangerous.
Alexey Leonkov: 10:07
Indeed, the escalation of the conflict is growing and all these initiatives that some European countries have shown, which relate, for example, to the same self-reconnaissance weapons or cruise missiles like Storm Shadow, they actually, from a military point of view, will not affect anything in strategic terms. But they will provoke Russia to make retaliatory moves.
Because the situation has gone so far that critical civilian military infrastructure facilities, as well as nuclear power plants, for example, the Kursk nuclear power plant and so on, can be attacked, which can lead to immediate consequences if this attack is suddenly successful.
10:49
In addition, the enemy always uses sophisticated tactics, and when combined strikes are carried out by drones that hover at the Black Sea, they not only engage in the purpose of indicating, but through them the flight missions of these air attack weapons are adjusted, in particular the ATACMS and Storm Shadow, that is, they change flight missions in flight and can cause more damage.
That is, this is a big load on our air defense system.
What is the enemy trying to achieve? He is going to provoke Russia into the retaliatory actions of which we are warning in order to make another PR campaign out of this, that aggressive Russia is threatening the whole world, so something needs to be done with it. In the NATO bloc there is no clear unity that would unite them. First of all, we need the image of a terrible, insidious, terrible enemy.
And they are ready to go to great lengths, because, in fact, they do not have a plan B for what to do with Ukraine. All their strategy, all their military assistance did not lead to the desired result.
Russia did not break, on the contrary, it became stronger. Therefore, now they are going to great lengths, they are ready to use even chemical weapons.
12:04
Several messages from the command of our RKBZ troops said that in certain sections of the line of combat contact, the enemy used chemical munitions. And this suggests that the West will probably go to the end, but first of all the countries of Europe.
And here are the European politicians who so zealously defend the supposedly international right of the Ukrainian junta to self-defense. And it should shoot down and shoot anywhere, in fact, dragging Europe into the conflict that most Europeans would rather avoid. That is, the conflict can lead from the regional to continental.
12:43
And Russia, of course, is trying to do everything to prevent this from happening. We sometimes do not fall for these provocations, due, as they say, to certain damages that are inflicted on us. But, apparently, everything will come to the point where we will consciously go to prevent this global threat by launching high-precision preventive strikes, which were very sensitive for some countries, which, as our president indicated, are small, but with a very dense population.
13:15
Therefore, we are forced to take these steps, they are forced, unfortunately, and as you can see, in the West there is not a single voice of reason that would warn that this escalation will lead to some consequences, except those more often for those countries that are developing this aggression and further.
Nikonov: 13:32
Among the relatively small countries with a very dense population is France, where Emanuel Macron shouts the loudest. Now his latest initiative, it was revealed by “Le Monde”, is the creation of a coalition of instructors for the Ukrainian armed forces.
13:53
Nothing has been decided yet, but sending French and European instructors to Ukraine could be a matter of weeks or even days. French authorities are trying to assemble a coalition of countries willing to train Ukrainian troops. According to sources, consultations on this issue should intensify in the coming days, with a view to making a possible announcement during Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings on June 6-7. On these days, Emanuel Macron may reveal the outlines of such an initiative.
Nikonov: 14:23
Well, he has many different initiatives, they are already greatly frightening the French. Here Marine LePen, who is now the most popular politician in France on the eve of the European parliamentary elections, is simply sounding the alarm.
Marine Le Pen: 14:39
Emanuel Macron wants France to fully enter the war with Russia. I’m against it. I believe that this will absolutely create a colossal threat, both for the safety of our compatriots and for the integrity of our territory. Like the United States or Germany, I am opposed to allowing Ukraine to use weapons we have supplied to attack Russian territory. This is how entering a world war happens, and I’m sorry to tell you this, but I am against anything that could lead to a world conflict in which France will be on the front line.
Nikonov: 15:18
Well, and, of course, there is a serious question. They will create a collection of instructors. And what will these instructors teach the Ukrainian armed forces that they don’t know? Well, actually, the answer was, well, interesting, from CIA analyst Larry Johnson.
Larry Johnson: 15:40
Any person who has even a drop of brains understands that Kyiv has no options left. The other day I watched a video where the Russians captured a Ukrainian soldier. This guy literally said the following: “I was picked up last week at the exit of a bakery in Kyiv, then they sent me to training for three days, gave me a uniform and brought me here.”
And now he is already on the front line. I’m not even sure if this guy knows how to load a machine gun, or if he even has a working one. That’s what’s happening. Russia is stretching Ukrainian forces to the breaking point. The Ukrainians are sending more and more people to stop the Russians, who continue to push the front. Everything is over. There are already photographs of soldiers from the French Legion, whose emblem is located not on the helmet, but on the sleeve. That is, they try to hide who they are, but not completely.
16:26
And now he is dead. He was sent there to train the Ukrainians. But this raises another, much more important question. Why will the French train the Ukrainians? To give up, or what?
Sergey Sudakov: 16:38
To give up, or what? Vyacheslav Freidovich, what good words. Probably, correct. Surrender is what we really need to know now, both good and correct. How to capitulate correctly so that everything goes well. But in fact, those voices and calls that are heard now in France, well, it seems to me that they are on the other side of good and evil.
16:54
When I heard the comments, you won’t believe it, they are not really military instructors, this is a kind of military professorship. When I heard this, it turns out that these are not regular troops, these are not military, but these are teachers coming. Therefore, it is impossible to kill teachers, because these are people who transmit knowledge, but how to kill knowledge? Yes, this is knowledge, but the question is different. A coalition is what Macron needs all the time. Macron understands perfectly well that he is not alone, he initially came to power with the help of those bankers who put him in place, and these were US bankers, definitely US bankers, and not just European houses who put him in place.
17:34
And now Macron is on a mission. He needs to create the concept of umbrella legitimacy, at least in some way, at least take the Baltic countries, at least someone, to create the appearance of this legitimacy. But in any case, any presence of instructors in the numbers they want leads to only one thing – they will also be destroyed on the territory of Ukraine. And the escalation of the conflict now is understandable. They need to show their clear contours for the so-called security conference and, of course, for the elections that will determine the European Parliament.
18:07
I believe this is a bad strategy, but there is still room for escalation in the West. The escalation continues, and we haven’t said everything yet. But the real question is this. Well, you have ambitions, but do you have the ammunition? More about this after the advertisement.
18:26
Brilliant. Just brilliant. I am reassured. Liars and card cheats. What can I say. I guess the only thing I can add to what you have said is that Trump though he will do everything in his power to assist Netanyahu in murdering the entirety of the Palestinian population to secure campaign funding, will never deviate from the instructions he receives from his KGB handler Boris Epshteyn.
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Excellent points! Thank you, sir.
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The point made about Russian first strike capability is evident to anyone who understands the nature of maneuverable hypersonic missiles.
The unstated and unexplored question, given the present state of the leadership cadre across the entire Collective West, is where we would be if the situation were reversed and it was the West which possessed first strike capability with the Russians, Chinese and Iranians having no defence against such weapons?
On the available evidence there can be little doubt that in such a scenario most of Makinder’s Eurasian Heartland would long have been a radioactive empty of life wasteland waiting to have its resources plundered to feed the insatiable appetites of those for whom the concept of infinity is even too limiting.
The fact that the West is not already reduced to such a state reveals everything about the respective cultures.
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The question of effective nuclear deterrence arises differently when the (actual) decision-makers of a country, such as the US, may be global multinationals, who are not personally at risk when they reside outside of the US.
It seems to me that Russian leaders “know” who the actual adversaries are, but do what they must in the settings which present, such as Ukraine, where Slav-puppets are dying, not strategic adversaries.
Also, the damage done to the strategic radar sites, which look towards the Mideast and Mediterranean, may have been slight, and might even have been more of a threat to Iran than to Russia…
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The historical analogy may be with the FDR Administration, and its now well-documented provocations of Japan to encourage Japan to strike a blow first. After which, FDR responded to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor by invading … North Africa!
The American people certainly rallied round the flag after Pearl Harbor, and went overnight from isolationist to eager war participants. But that was then, and this is now. It is hard to imagine any great reaction from the US public to, say, Russian missiles destroying NATO assets in Germany and Poland.
However, the “Joe Biden” Administration is so foolish that they may be trying to wriggle out of their domestic failures by provoking Russia into an action that can be presented as Russian aggression. However, the world has changed, and any large-scale moves on the part of the Administration would certainly result in direct attacks on the Washington DC Swamp. The US is no longer protected by the width of two oceans.
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Where are reports that the Voronezh-DM radar installation near Armavir, in the Krasnodar region was destroyed?
Bloomberg
May 25, 2024 at 6:14 PM GMT+3
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Very good–indeed I would have liked more. I notice also that this departs somewhat from the tenor of your remarks to Judge Nap this week; or perhaps it was your citation of Paul Craig Roberts that led me to overestimate the degree to which you share his views on Putin’s foolish moderation.
As for the calm, I get the sense that we in the world are for the first time seeing what it is to be a Stavka and Russian General Staff already at war. They are not twitching and fidgeting at every move the Enemy makes. They are embarked, committed, ready to endure and have already resolved to act as their judgement dictates.
If, as I’ve heard VV Putin say, it all goes sideways, at least they will arrive at the Gates of Heaven as martyrs, whereas their counterparts will be dispatched before they’ve had time to repent to their Maker.
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The reason Russia is “blasé” about attacks on its early warning radar systems is because this fits a long established pattern of Putin pretending inconvenient things never happened. He is both risk averse and also very stubborn, he refuses to knock out 750v transformers, of course he is not going to start a nuclear war over a few radar systems destroyed.
My best guess is this was Ukraine acting out, perhaps with the help a certain power factions in the west (who knows, the UK, CIA) but not the White House leadership. Or perhaps just on its own. My “feel” for how Western escalations work is they reflect pent up anger and frustration at Russia, with each strike a sort of lashing out, “what are you going to do about it? Nothing” It soothes that anger while Putin in his slow turtle way keeps attritioning Ukraine until finally Ukraine will come to the table and agree to a “civilized” compromise that will leave all western Russia supporters scratching their heads “you (Putin) agreed to that even though you were winning??”
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Where are their submarines?
where are ours?
all out to sea it’s real.
it looks to me we are the bad guys.
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Thank you for the text.
There is no reason to assume the Poseidon is not already operational. I believe this was already communicated by the RUs a few years ago. The official payload is a 9Mt warhead. According to Theodor Postol it could carry a 50Mt device, too.
I am waiting for a broader assessment on the hypersonics. There is still lack of enough scholarship by nuclear arms physicists, I have the impression, to really draw a solid conclusion.
As counterstrikes are concerned I am not sure how dead-hand is intended to be outmaneuvered by US planners. I would speculate that the idea is a full blown sneak attack by the entire covert US triad forces that can reach RU silos and airports undetected.
Again the true extent and nature here are top secret by both sides. Issues are e.g. how are the rumours to be judged about US Navy tailing RU SSBNs. How likely are F-35 and B-3 and stealth cruise missiles to destroy RU C&C and WMD installations 85-90% which is one figure. Any of this of course planned to be registered by RU only after the fact.
The underlying understanding of any such discussion is viable MAD. Which some segments in the US seem or have seemed to regard to not be in effect any more.
But whatever the reality would be, I seriously doubt – call me naive – that the RUs would enact a first strike outside Russia in any way. And even in Ukraine I see no sense in any WMD use. What good would it do? It has to be remembered that NATO is in essence a WMD force. That´s what it was set up for.
Besides any doctrine and discussion is not worth the paper if nukes have been used. That is a completely new reality with its own terrifying rules which nothing can prepare us for.
There is a time before and after. And there is no fog of war in between. Instea it´s a huge wall of concrete which we cannot see through.
If the Russians really did commit to first strike that would a) not stop NATO from doing anything the wanted to b) on the contrary deliver NATO the great gift of offering another case of “just war” – just like the RUs did with Febr. 24th. It would be another Art. 51 case. Which is the single biggest obstacle for the European antiwar movement.
Whenever there is discussion on legitimacy in Europe bottom-line is RU is the aggressor. Which thus gives Europe (aka USA) every right to escalate.
Do not believe you will scare NATO once damage has been inflicted. Those people (not all of them of course) are maniacs. RU has never been the true “Crazy Ivan” in this. It has always been the US. (A stupid prejudiced quote from a US Cold War flick.)
I doubt Putin would do this mistake. Attacking would mean to hand over the game plan to NATO. So that´s what they want. Until RU stays stoic NATO won´t be able to act using it´s potent arms.
RU should rather gather the world´s nations and exert resistance and pressure on the US. I know how this sounds. But there must be other ways out of this than a WWIII stand-off.
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