There are many elements in the agreements signed today by the Russian and North Korean leaders following their 5 hours of one-on-one talks and 90 minutes of talks with the participation of their government delegations. Needless to say, these consequential agreements on an ‘All-encompassing Strategic Partnership’ were not the product of this one day, but of the intense work of both sides at various administrative and executive levels since the visit of Kim Jong Un to the Russian Far East nine months ago.
Allow me to cut to the quick, and set out here the most surprising development which emerged in Vladimir Putin’s speech following the signing ceremonies as stated in the title above that I give to this essay.
Vladimir Putin remarked that the Partnership has a military component which affirms that each side will come to the aid of the other if it is under attack. Then, gratuitously, one might say, he mentioned the impending dispatch of F-16s by NATO countries that are to use Ukrainian territory to strike deep into the Russian Federation heartland. The juxtaposition of these two points in his speech leaves little doubt to those of us trained as Sovietologists that Putin considers what NATO is about to do at its Western borders as the very act of aggression that will trigger Russia’s Strategic Partnership with North Korea and present the United States with a live threat to its military bases in Korea, in Japan and in the broader region.
Whether we choose to consider this scenario as ‘symmetric’ or ‘asymmetric’ response is beside the point. The net result will surely be as effective in waking up the dullards in Washington, D.C., in Brussels, London and Berlin to the fact that Russia means business, is not bluffing, and can wreak massive destruction on U.S. and Western military assets at any moment of its choosing if there is further escalation in the Ukraine war.
At the recently held St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin went up against the political scientist Sergei Karaganov who for more than a year has called for Russia to stage a tactical nuclear strike in Europe to shake the hubristic West from its foolish belief in its invulnerability and exceptionalism. It would appear that with the stroke of a pen today, Vladimir Vladimirovich has accomplished the same with no loss of life and without opening the Pandora’s box of nuclear arms.
Mr. Putin’s travels in East Asia do not end today. On the contrary, he is headed next for Vietnam, where we may expect additional agreements that amount to check-mate to the Aukus and So.Korea-Japan gambit of Messrs. Biden, Sullivan and Blinken. They thought they had done so well to ‘contain’ China and Russia during their first term in office. It would appear now that these vast efforts at cajoling, black-mailing and otherwise dominating America’s ‘allies’ in the Pacific created just an updated version of the Maginot Line that did not survive a German end-run.
And so, ladies and gentlemen, let us all thank our lucky stars that in this day and age of pygmies and cowards at the helm of states in Europe and North America, there is at least one rational and courageous leader to save the day.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)
Russland wird die Entsendung von F16-Kampfflugzeugen in die Ukraine als Aggression betrachten, die sein gegenseitiges Verteidigungsabkommen mit Nordkorea auslöst
Die Vereinbarungen, die die russische und die nordkoreanische Führung heute nach ihren fünfstündigen Einzelgesprächen und 90-minütigen Gesprächen unter Beteiligung ihrer Regierungsdelegationen unterzeichnet haben, enthalten zahlreiche Elemente. Natürlich sind diese folgenreichen Vereinbarungen über eine “allumfassende strategische Partnerschaft” nicht das Ergebnis dieses einen Tages, sondern der intensiven Arbeit beider Seiten auf verschiedenen Verwaltungs- und Führungsebenen seit dem Besuch von Kim Jong Un im russischen Fernen Osten vor neun Monaten.
Gestatten Sie mir, dass ich mich kurz fasse und die überraschendste Entwicklung aus der Rede Wladimir Putins im Anschluss an die Unterzeichnungszeremonien darlege, wie sie im obigen Titel, den ich diesem Aufsatz gebe, zum Ausdruck kommt.
Wladimir Putin wies darauf hin, dass die Partnerschaft eine militärische Komponente hat, die besagt, dass jede Seite der anderen zu Hilfe kommen wird, wenn sie angegriffen wird. Dann erwähnte er sozusagen grundlos die bevorstehende Entsendung von F-16-Kampfflugzeugen durch NATO-Länder, die über ukrainisches Gebiet tief in das Kernland der Russischen Föderation eindringen sollen. Die Gegenüberstellung dieser beiden Punkte in seiner Rede lässt für diejenigen unter uns, die als Sowjetologen ausgebildet sind, wenig Zweifel daran, dass Putin das, was die NATO an ihren westlichen Grenzen zu tun gedenkt, als genau den Akt der Aggression betrachtet, der Russlands strategische Partnerschaft mit Nordkorea auslösen und die Vereinigten Staaten vor eine reale Bedrohung ihrer Militärstützpunkte in Korea, Japan und in der gesamten Region stellen wird.
Ob wir dieses Szenario nun als “symmetrische” oder “asymmetrische” Reaktion betrachten, ist nebensächlich. Das Endergebnis wird sicherlich ebenso wirksam sein, um die Dummköpfe in Washington, D.C., Brüssel, London und Berlin wachzurütteln und ihnen klar zu machen, dass Russland es ernst meint, nicht blufft und jederzeit massive Zerstörungen an den militärischen Einrichtungen der USA und des Westens anrichten kann, wenn es zu einer weiteren Eskalation des Ukraine-Krieges kommt.
Auf dem kürzlich abgehaltenen Internationalen Wirtschaftsforum in St. Petersburg trat Putin gegen den Politikwissenschaftler Sergej Karaganow an, der seit mehr als einem Jahr einen taktischen Atomschlag Russlands in Europa fordert, um den überheblichen Westen in seinem törichten Glauben an seine Unverwundbarkeit und seinen Exzeptionalismus zu erschüttern. Es scheint, dass Wladimir Wladimirowitsch heute mit einem Federstrich dasselbe erreicht hat, ohne Menschenleben zu verlieren und ohne die Büchse der Pandora zu öffnen.
Herrn Putins Reisen in Ostasien sind heute noch nicht zu Ende. Im Gegenteil, als Nächstes reist er nach Vietnam, wo wir mit weiteren Vereinbarungen rechnen können, die das Aukus- und Südkorea-Japan-Gambit der Herren Biden, Sullivan und Blinken schachmatt setzen werden. Sie dachten, sie hätten es in ihrer ersten Amtszeit geschafft, China und Russland “einzudämmen”. Jetzt stellt sich heraus, dass diese gewaltigen Anstrengungen, Amerikas “Verbündete” im Pazifik zu umgarnen, zu erpressen und anderweitig zu dominieren, nur eine aktualisierte Version der Maginot-Linie geschaffen haben, die einen deutschen Ansturm nicht überlebt hat.
Und so, meine Damen und Herren, sollten wir alle unseren Glückssternen danken, dass es in der heutigen Zeit der Pygmäen und Feiglinge an der Spitze der Staaten in Europa und Nordamerika wenigstens einen vernünftigen und mutigen Führer gibt, der den Tag rettet.
Gilbert Doctorow 
Your thesis is based on rationality in Washington. It doesn’t exist. Washington is governed by minority constituency politics and the peculiar mentality of the exceptionalist clique in the government. There is not a single constituency in Washington that would demure from a nuclear attack on North Korea should it attack American bases in South Korea. And as for the exceptionalist clique they clearly believe they are omnipotent and governed by a religious imperative. VVP is trying to save humanity. Unfortunately, he’s up against a minuscule minority of humanity who could care less about saving humanity.
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The question is — Is anyone in the Washington DC Swamp listening? Are any of them even capable of listening?
We know that the Swamp is not listening to American citizens. Witness “Joe Biden’s” deliberate open southern border, despite the overwhelming opposition of the US people. Do the Swamp denizens even care about what North Korean might do to US personnel on US military bases in South Korea?
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Gentlemen, The parties have signed a MUTUAL defense pact. If the United Staes attacks North Korea, then Russia is obliged to attack the United States. If the attack on N.Korea were nuclear, the Russians would be obliged to make a massive nuclear attack on the US homeland. As regards the personal fate of Messrs Blinken, Sullivan, Kirby and all the other low life managing the Cadaver in Chief, they would face what Donald Trump would say in his Special English: “You dead!” That is something even these dimwits can comprehend. And so, as I said, the game is up.
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In their public utterances the clique, including the Commander in Chief himself, show not the slightest fear of Russia. Thus if we can be guided by what they say, they prefer vaporization to showing fear. Not true? Where is the evidence? I think a major problem is that in addition to losing on the battlefield they are losing the sanction war which they may also regard as worse than vaporization. Are they in fact suicidal? Hitler took his own life. Are they any different? Or do they know something we don’t know: they’re going to defeat Russia. Unfortunately, VVP did not get that memo. And in the world of the clique that’s all that counts: sending memo’s. That’s how they spend their day.
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“If the United States attacks North Korea, then Russia is obliged to attack the United States.” I don’t believe this if you mean the continental United States- presumably Russia’s obligations are simply to aid North Korea militarily.
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The more one thinks about this, the more obvious it becomes that President Putin simply outclasses & out-thinks the ladies of the West.
Under this scenario, an overt US/NATO attack on Russian territory (which, in Russia’s interpretation, includes the Donbas) would require North Korea to respond. Our Betters in the West seem to have convinced themselves that President Putin is bluffing about responding with nuclear weapons — but what about North Korea? Our Betters also believe that Kim Jong-Un is unstable; there is no telling what he might do if the Mutual Defense treaty is activated. North Korea has ballistic missiles which can reach the Continental US; and the already-low living standards in North Korea make it more robust to any US/NATO counter-strike.
Any honest US/NATO war-gaming of an attack in the Ukraine would have to conclude that the outcome is now much more unpredictable, with significantly larger downsides.
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I think chess is an apt metaphor here. Putin’s move in forming an alliance with North Korea may be analogous to a chess knight jumping over and beyond the direct threats posed by bishops or castles. And I think that changes the whole dynamic of the game.
The American empire is powerful but not, I think, very nimble. The challenge ahead is to de-fang that imperial beast without triggering Armageddon. Putin’s maneuver contributes toward that end by building alliances that cannot be contained by the usual mechanisms of military encirclement or economic sanction. And he does this gracefully, without threats or needless aggression, even as he reminds America that his scabbard contains a saber. Not rattling it, as Blinken or Biden would do, but adjusting it just loudly enough to get attention.
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