Nothing to worry about? South Korea sounds the alarm

What a difference a day makes.  Yesterday’s Financial Times informed readers about the red carpet that was rolled out for Vladimir Putin at his various stops in and around the North Korean capital during his two-day stay there. They spoke of the Russian folk songs which local artists performed in Putin’s honor. They mentioned that various state to state agreements were signed but said almost nothing about the contents.

Today the FT has taken a very different approach to Putin’s visit in a feature article entitled “Japan and South Korea sound alarm over Putin-Kim military pact.” Lo and behold, Seoul has read the text of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that North Korea issued and discovered that it contains: “a pledge to deploy ‘all means at its disposal without delay’ to provide ‘military and other assistance’ in the event that one of the signatories was invaded or in a state of war.”

The FT goes on to cite the South Korean foreign ministry’s expression of regret over the strategic partnership: “ …co-operation between Russia and North Korea ‘should not undermine regional peace and stability’.” Seoul warns “that their co-operation on military technology would violate UN Security Council resolutions.”

Those resolutions, by the way, are up for renewal in the not-too-distant future, and Putin has said from Pyongyang that Russia will veto any extensions.

The fact is that this barking from the South Koreans is frustrated by the very opacity of the wording of both the texts and of Putin’s spoken remarks after the signing and at a meeting with Russian journalists before his departure for Vietnam.

One thing is certain: the Russian-North Korean deal is not just transactional: it is a genuine alliance, the first and only one that Russia has at this moment.

What kind of military assistance will the sides provide to the other in case an act of aggression is declared? What kind of military technical cooperation do the parties have in mind?

For example, will Russia be providing North Korea with ICBMs capable of reaching all of the United States, as some American experts believe?  Or is Russia just extending its nuclear umbrella over North Korea, with a pledge to destroy any attacker? Will Russia provide North Korea with its ship sinking hypersonic missiles that could be very useful if this or any future American president sends an aircraft carrier task force to Korean shores to threaten Pyongyang with instant destruction as Trump once did?

Turned around the other way, what can and will North Korea do to help if Russia declares that an act of aggression has been committed against it by NATO in the midst of the Ukraine conflict?  Last evening’s edition of the authoritative Russian talk show, The Great Game, moderated by Duma member and Kremlin insider Vyacheslav Nikonov provided an intriguing insight into what people close to Putin are thinking in this regard.

For some time, Russia’s chattering classes have speculated about possibilities for enlisting some of North Korea’s one million man army to help their forces in the ground war in Ukraine. Now, under conditions of the newly signed military alliance with Pyongyang, these same Russians are saying that should NATO forces enter Ukraine to join the fight against them, as Emmanuel Macron has been urging, then Russia may invite 50,000 or more North Koreans to lend a hand to their cause. Moreover, they note that the North Koreans have some very impressive artillery pieces to bring with them to the fight.

If that kind of talk on Russian television is being ignored by the military attaché in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow I would be very surprised.

In closing, I mention that the fuss raised by Seoul over the Russian-North Korean military alliance was the subject of a 10-minute interview I gave to Iran’s Press TV this morning.

The link is here:  https://www.urmedium.net/c/presstv/129882

As I was alerted by one very attentive reader, this link is usable if you ignore the warnings about possibly compromising security of your computer and opt to proceed at your own risk. The warning is malicious, a bit of disinformation from Iran’s detractors, nothing more.

An alternative link that works directly, without unnerving warnings is here: https://odysee.com/PressTV-2024-06-21:8

Enjoy the show!

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus) followed by the full transcript of the interview in English

Kein Grund zur Sorge? Südkorea schlägt Alarm

Was für einen Unterschied ein Tag macht. Die gestrige Ausgabe der Financial Times informierte die Leser über den roten Teppich, der für Wladimir Putin während seines zweitägigen Aufenthalts in und um die nordkoreanische Hauptstadt ausgerollt wurde. Es wurde über die russischen Volkslieder berichtet, die lokale Künstler zu Putins Ehren vortrugen. Sie erwähnten, dass verschiedene zwischenstaatliche Abkommen unterzeichnet wurden, sagten aber fast nichts über deren Inhalt.

Heute hat die FT in einem Artikel mit der Überschrift “Japan und Südkorea schlagen Alarm wegen des Militärpakts zwischen Putin und Kim” einen ganz anderen Ansatz zu Putins Besuch gewählt. Und siehe da, Seoul hat den Text der umfassenden strategischen Partnerschaft gelesen, den Nordkorea veröffentlicht hat, und festgestellt, dass er Folgendes enthält: “eine Zusage, ‘alle ihr zur Verfügung stehenden Mittel unverzüglich’ einzusetzen, um ‘militärische und andere Unterstützung’ zu leisten, falls einer der Unterzeichnerstaaten überfallen würde oder sich im Kriegszustand befände.”

Die FT zitiert weiter das südkoreanische Außenministerium, das sein Bedauern über die strategische Partnerschaft zum Ausdruck brachte: ” … die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Russland und Nordkorea ‘sollte nicht den regionalen Frieden und die Stabilität untergraben’.” Seoul warnt, “dass ihre Zusammenarbeit im Bereich der Militärtechnologie gegen die Resolutionen des UN-Sicherheitsrates verstoßen würde”.

Diese Resolutionen stehen übrigens in nicht allzu ferner Zukunft zur Erneuerung an, und Putin hat von Pjöngjang aus erklärt, dass Russland gegen jede Verlängerung sein Veto einlegen wird.

Tatsache ist, dass dieses Gebell der Südkoreaner durch die Undurchsichtigkeit des Wortlauts sowohl der Texte als auch der Äußerungen Putins nach der Unterzeichnung und bei einem Treffen mit russischen Journalisten vor seiner Abreise nach Vietnam zunichte gemacht wird.

Eines ist sicher: Das russisch-nordkoreanische Abkommen ist keine bloße Transaktion, sondern ein echtes Bündnis, das erste und einzige, das Russland im Moment hat.

Welche Art von militärischem Beistand werden die beiden Seiten der jeweils anderen Seite im Falle eines Angriffs gewähren? Welche Art der militärisch-technischen Zusammenarbeit haben die Parteien im Sinn?

Wird Russland beispielsweise Nordkorea mit ICBMs ausstatten, die die gesamten Vereinigten Staaten erreichen können, wie einige amerikanische Experten glauben? Oder weitet Russland nur seinen nuklearen Schutzschirm über Nordkorea aus, mit der Zusage, jeden Angreifer zu vernichten? Wird Russland Nordkorea seine schiffsversenkenden Hyperschallraketen zur Verfügung stellen, die sehr nützlich sein könnten, wenn dieser oder ein künftiger amerikanischer Präsident eine Flugzeugträger-Einsatztruppe an die koreanische Küste schickt, um Pjöngjang mit sofortiger Vernichtung zu drohen, wie es Trump einst tat?

Andersherum gefragt: Was kann und wird Nordkorea tun, um zu helfen, wenn Russland erklärt, dass die NATO inmitten des Ukraine-Konflikts eine Aggression gegen das Land verübt hat? Die gestrige Ausgabe der maßgeblichen russischen Talkshow “The Great Game“, moderiert vom Duma-Mitglied und Kreml-Insider Wjatscheslaw Nikonow, bot einen interessanten Einblick in die diesbezüglichen Überlegungen der Putin nahestehenden Personen.

Seit geraumer Zeit spekuliert die russische Klatschpresse über die Möglichkeit, einen Teil der nordkoreanischen Millionenarmee zur Unterstützung ihrer Streitkräfte im Bodenkrieg in der Ukraine zu rekrutieren. Jetzt, unter den Bedingungen des neu unterzeichneten Militärbündnisses mit Pjöngjang, sagen dieselben Russen, dass Russland 50.000 oder mehr Nordkoreaner einladen könnte, um seine Sache zu unterstützen, sollten die NATO-Truppen in die Ukraine einmarschieren, um sich dem Kampf gegen sie anzuschließen, wie Emmanuel Macron es gefordert hat. Außerdem weisen sie darauf hin, dass die Nordkoreaner über einige sehr beeindruckende Artilleriegeschütze verfügen, die sie in den Kampf mitbringen könnten.

Es würde mich sehr wundern, wenn der Militärattaché in der US-Botschaft in Moskau derartige Äußerungen im russischen Fernsehen ignorieren würde.

Abschließend möchte ich erwähnen, dass die Aufregung, die Seoul über das russisch-nordkoreanische Militärbündnis ausgelöst hat, Gegenstand eines zehnminütigen Interviews war, das ich heute Morgen dem iranischen Press TV gegeben habe.

Der Link ist hier:  https://www.urmedium.net/c/presstv/129882

Wie ich von einem sehr aufmerksamen Leser erfahren habe, ist dieser Link nutzbar, wenn Sie die Warnungen vor einer möglichen Gefährdung der Sicherheit Ihres Computers ignorieren und auf eigenes Risiko fortfahren. Die Warnung ist böswillig, eine kleine Desinformation von den Gegnern des Iran, nichts weiter.

Ein alternativer Link, der direkt und ohne nervige Warnungen funktioniert, ist hier: https://odysee.com/PressTV-2024-06-21:8

Viel Vergnügen mit der Sendung!

Transcript below by a reader

PressTV: 0:00
We are now joined by Gilbert Doctorow, independent international affairs analyst, who joins us from Brussels, Belgium. And we wanted to welcome him, first of all, to the program to discuss the developments in the deepening ties between the DPRK and Moscow. Mr. Doctorow, welcome to the program.

Gilbert Doctorow, Ph.D.:
Thanks for the invitation.

PressTV: 0:31
Mr. Doctorow, can you hear me?

Doctorow:
I hear you perfectly, yes.

PressTV:
OK, great. So yeah, the first question that I was going to ask you is: the defense pact that is signed between the DPRK and Moscow has drawn anger from South Korea first, and also its ally the U.S. Now considering that this is a defense pact what is there to be worried about, what is there to be angry about on the side of South Korea and the U.S.?

Doctorow: 0:58
Well there’s everything to be worried about, and there are even a few things that one might be angry about, although you can’t pin it down, you can’t say exactly how this defense pact, or mutual assistance pact, would be implemented, under what circumstances. It is a mutual pact, which means not only is Russia standing ready to assist in unspecified ways in case North Korea is attacked, but North Korea is ready to assist in unspecified ways if Russia is attacked.

We ask, what does Russia being attacked mean? And that is also a very, very fine issue. Does it mean that the United States and its allies send F-16s nominally under Ukrainian flag with nominally Ukrainian pilots and they attack the heartland of Russia? Is that, does that mean that this, that North Korea is obliged to take Seoul off the face of the earth? Well, who knows? One thing I can say is that “Financial Times”, which had an article saying very much what you have just said today, yesterday was saying, “Ah, it was just pomp and ceremony that Mr. Putin was treated to in his visit to Pyongyang, that yes, they sang Russian songs and everybody had a good time.” But they didn’t say anything about the content or the nature of the documents that were signed.

2:37
Here in Belgium, the leading French-speaking newspaper yesterday, “Le Soir”, was saying, “Ah, we can breathe easy, they haven’t yet reached agreement on a military alliance.” Well, that is rubbish. Mr. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said on the sidelines yesterday, or the day before yesterday, in Pyongyang, that they had indeed reached what is a military alliance. They are allies. “We are allies, he said, regardless of what this piece of paper is called.”

In the West, the first reactions were to say this is transactional, that Putin is going to get more 155-millimeter artillery shells, which are needed very badly for the ongoing fight in Ukraine, and the North Koreans will get unspecified military technical assistance. What that means, nobody has been able to say; one can guess. But I think many of the guesses are far wrong.

PressTV: 3:46
Doctor, is there any significance on the timing of this particular pact? I mean, we’ve known that the partnership between South Korea and the U.S., it has meant that over the past few months there has been an escalation in their military drills. Does that have anything to do with the timing of this particular pact?

Doctorow: 4:10
Well, there are a number of considerations. The Russians are always looking for anniversaries of one kind or another, the first time that they establish diplomatic relations with a given country, or similar type of events, to time their visits to one or another country. This was certainly true in Vietnam also, where there was an event being celebrated. But you make mention of the exercises. Of course, this is a response to them, it’s a response to the rumors that the United States would be giving a nuclear submarine to South Korea or parking one in South Korea.

The United States has been very provocative. And that is now under the Biden administration. It was still more provocative with respect to North Korea in Mr. Trump’s administration, when he sent a nuclear-armed aircraft carrier task force to virtually the shores of North Korea, to make the point that “We can destroy you in a moment.” I think that with the signing of this agreement between North Korea and Russia, that type of provocation is over. With a little bit of technical assistance, shall we say, from the Russians, the North Koreans will be able to sink that aircraft carrier and the whole task force in 30 minutes. So this type of 19th-century ship diplomacy will no longer work in the Far East.

PressTV: 5:49
Now in the wake of this pact and also quite a while before it, we’ve heard the term “new world order” being thrown around a lot, particularly by Mr. Putin and Kim Jong-un themselves. How likely… First of all, what do you think that means? In this supposed new world order, what are the countries that are going to become more prominent, play a more prominent role in this supposed new world order? And how does the US and its ally, South Korea, going to be responding to these … claims of a new world order?

Doctorow: 6:30
Well … responding– I think that the Russians’ new world order is the response to the existing so-called … rules-based order which is, as Mr Putin has said in recent speeches, just another way of … covering up or putting lipstick on the pig of American imperialism and global hegemony. The new world order will mean that there are more equal participants in the governing board of the world, whether it is the G20 or it is an expanded BRICS, which might even one day include the United States, whatever the institutional framework is for these great powers coming together.

And we can easily determine who they are. This is economic and military strength taken together. They will not be suffering the diktat from one country, namely the United States. There’ll be much more trading of interests to reach consensus, and there’ll probably be more regionalization. The new world order– it was assisted by the deconstruction of American hegemony in the Far East. Russia has reasserted its interest and its ability to be a full player in the Far East by this visit to both North Korea and Vietnam. So the days of the unipolar world are over.

8:09
Let’s go back– a bit in history. It’s not so long ago when Mr. Obama was the president, and he said, “Ah, yes, Russia is just a regional player.” Mr. Putin’s response to that was, “Which region?” Which was not a joke. Russia is the world’s largest landmass, 13% of the earth is Russia, and it has borders with many countries and interests in many directions, east, west, north, and south. And the eastern direction, which was allowed to lapse after Russia imploded in the 1990s, has now been restored and raised to an ever higher level of importance. So that Russia is a major player, if not a decisive player, in the creation of this world order is obvious.

PressTV: 9:03
Now, very briefly, Mr. Doctorow, what can you tell me about the responses to this pact, which has mainly focused on the military aspect of the pact, the military consequences that the pact may bring. But we may be missing certain key factors in the pact about, like, economical cooperations and the economical ramifications of such a pact. What are we missing here in the, you know, mainstream analyses?

Doctorow: 9:33
You’re very correct in directing attention to the non-military side. The economic possibilities of cooperation between these two countries, which have a common border, are very great, starting from a very low level, to be sure. When one speaks about Russian-Korean trade increasing by a factor of 10, you have to keep in mind we’re speaking about millions and not billions of dollars. So there’s a long way to go, but North Korea has for twenty years been suffering severe problems with food production, and it is unable to feed itself, at the same time that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of foodstuffs. First it was grains, and now it’s even poultry and meat and so forth.

10:23
So, Russia is in an excellent position to assist the North Korean economy to feed its own people. That is a good start. The logistical discussions are very important. The two countries have a common border, but almost no roads to get from one side to the other. There is a railway bridge. They have to be building highways, automobile bridges. And in this process of reconstruction and establishing new infrastructure, one of the elements will be to remove an antiquated bridge now across the river separating them, which is very low to the water, too low for ships from a third country that also has access to this waterway, China, to use it. And when they rebuild this, China will be a big beneficiary, and China will have naval access to the Sea of Japan, which is an economic issue, and I’d say also a [military] issue for the Japanese.

PressTV: 11:31
Okay, thank you very much, Mr. Gilbert Doctorow. He’s an independent international affairs analyst. Thank you for joining the program and giving us your insights.