New truce possibilities in Gaza: a step to peace? Or a sidestep to war in Lebanon?

New truce possibilities in Gaza: a step to peace? Or a sidestep to war in Lebanon?

I am appreciative of the opportunity I was given by WION, India’s premier English-language global broadcaster, to speak briefly this morning about the current state of affairs in the Gaza war, from where there are reports that a cease fire agreement between Israel and Hamas may be imminent.

I freely acknowledge that the Middle East per se is outside my core competence, however, these days, as the BBC likes to explain in its self-promoting adverts for its business coverage: everything is connected. It is not possible to speak about the forces influencing the direction of the Israel’s confrontation with its neighbors without discussing the Russian factor, which is my core competence.

To be sure, Russia’s influence has till now been to calm things down, not to become a party to the conflict, since Moscow has its hands full with the war in Ukraine.  We are told, in particular, that Russia has applied pressure to its friend Bashar Assad in Syria, to keep Damascus on the sidelines, out of harm’s way. However, an all-out Israeli attack on Lebanon, which may be Mr. Netanyahu’s next move if there is a lull in the Gaza, would likely raise the Russian profile in this conflict sharply: at a minimum as supplier of missiles to the Houthis that can prevent an active and much needed U.S. intervention on Israeli’s behalf if the country goes to war with Hezbollah, and at a maximum by lending support to the militias in Syria and Iraq which participate in the Axis of Resistance under the aegis of Iran.

Full transcript provided by a reader followed by translation into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Transcription below by a reader

Hem Kaur Saroya, WION: 0:00
There’s renewed hope for a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel’s Mossad spy agency said that Israel is studying Hamas’ response to a proposal that would include a hostage release deal. A statement released by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office on behalf of Mossad says that mediators have given the negotiating team the hostage deal outline and that Israel is examining it. Will this finally result in a truce deal in this nine-month war? Are we likely to see a repeat of negotiations reaching an impasse yet again? My name is Hem Kaur Saroya, and to discuss this I am now being joined by Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, international affairs analyst, author and historian. Sir, thank you so much for joining us on WION.

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
Thanks for the invitation.

WION: 0:40
Sir, do you think that this round of negotiations could result in a lasting truce between Israel and Hamas?

Doctorow:
I think the key word in your is “lasting”. That it will result in a truce is almost certain, and the reasons are there for everyone to see. I think there are two factors in Mr. Netanyahu’s thinking at this moment, and these are the position of his own military, the Israeli Defense Force, and the position of the United States. He has been sharply criticized by leaders of his own military, in the last several days, for conducting an operation in Gaza that cannot result in the end scenario that Mr. Netanyahu has posed, namely eradicating Hamas.

1:31
His own military have said that’s an impossible mission, and their open opposition to him has put his continued rule in Israel under question. There are some very sober minds in the States who are suggesting that if Mr. Netanyahu continues his unrealistic, delusional policies, he may find himself confronting his own military in his office with guns to his chest to remove him. So that is one consideration.

The other consideration is the United States, where Mr. Biden has been under great pressure himself for his unlimited support to Netanyahu in what is an ever more shocking humanitarian crisis precipitated by Israel’s wanton destruction of Gaza. So these two factors may explain Mr. Netanyahu’s reluctant agreement to a truce which he otherwise has rejected. But it is doubtful that his intent is that this is where the war in Gaza will end. So, that is the question mark of the day: for how long will the truce last?

WION: 2:39
Right, sir. In fact, I was just going to come to this. You rightly mentioned that pressure is mounting on the Israeli prime minister, on the domestic front as well as on the international front. Do you reckon that this may push him to somehow rethink his strategy in Gaza?

Doctorow:
In Gaza, yes. In the region, not necessarily. I’d like to point out that happy as we may be that the prospect of an end to the daily massacre of innocent civilians in Gaza by the Israeli Defense Force, good as that may be, I would not rest at that point and think that the worst is over. It may well be that Mr. Netanyahu is marshalling his forces for a concentrated attack on southern Lebanon and Hezbollah. That is not to be ruled out. This is his master plan to involve the United States directly in his war in the Middle East.

3:36
And it will be unforeseeable whether this also delusional policy is implemented or whether he is restrained by his military, which has suffered very big losses and disorganization; by the population of Israel, which is running for the exit door– they have lost a lot of citizens, I understand, from departures by people who are afraid for their lives of the consequences of Mr. Netanyahu’s policies. So it remains to be seen whether he will divert attention from Gaza and make a concerted attack on Lebanon.

WION: 4:22
Right, and I will just come to that, but I’m just seeking more clarity here on what you said earlier. When we talk of lasting peace, what are some of the contentious issues which you still require careful deliberation for there to be lasting peace here?

Doctorw:
Well, it is Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence that Hamas be eradicated, which is the single biggest obstacle to a peace that is durable. His own military, who know better than he does what the situation is on the ground, are saying that this is not feasible. And they are resisting his directions to continue the war on the ground in Gaza. Whether they will persuade him and he will back down, as seems to be the case now, that’s something we will learn in the next few days.

WION: 5:13
Right, sir. Now, coming to the Hezbollah threat, I want to understand what your assessment of that is. Of course, there are rising tensions of a wider regional war between Israel and Lebanon.

Doctorow:
Yes, there are. First of all, Hezbollah has the backing of Iran. Several days ago, the Iranian government made it clear that if Hezbollah is severely attacked by Israel and is facing any possible military defeat, that Iran will step in militarily. That is one step in escalation of this war. The next step is that Iran has a similar backing from Russia, which is: the two countries are now joined at the hip in defense matters.

6:01
And if Iran were to be seriously threatened by Israel as a consequence of its entering the war on the side of Hezbollah, then Russia would be taking steps, not necessarily boots on the ground, but it has many options for putting enormous pressure on Israel and on Israel’s backers, the United States, by doing what Mr. Putin said he would do several weeks ago. That is, act in an asymmetrical manner with regard to the war in Ukraine, and find ways to assist militarily the enemies of Russia’s enemy, the United States.

And there have been reports in recent days that Russia either has shipped or will be shipping its Zircon hypersonic attack missiles, ship-killing missiles, to the Houthis. The Houthis in Yemen have so far been using their own homemade drones and missiles provided by Iran to attack naval vessels and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and even in the Mediterranean, and even to reach into Eilat and Haifa, the main ports of Israel.

07:11
If they receive these weapons, these devastating weapons from Russia, then the American military presence in the Middle East will be put under question.

WION:
All right. Well, Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, thank you so much for joining us on WION with your insights on this.

Doctorow:
Thanks again.

WION: 7:31
For latest news, download the WION app and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

ranslation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Neue Möglichkeiten für einen Waffenstillstand in Gaza: ein Schritt zum Frieden? Oder ein Ausweichmanöver für den Krieg im Libanon?

Ich bin dankbar für die Gelegenheit, die mir WION, Indiens führender englischsprachiger globaler Fernsehsender, gegeben hat, um heute Morgen kurz über den aktuellen Stand der Dinge im Gaza-Krieg zu sprechen, wo Berichten zufolge ein Waffenstillstandsabkommen zwischen Israel und der Hamas unmittelbar bevorstehen könnte.

Ich gebe gerne zu, dass der Nahe Osten an sich nicht zu meinen Kernkompetenzen gehört, aber wie die BBC in ihrer Eigenwerbung für ihre Wirtschaftsberichterstattung gerne erklärt: Alles hängt zusammen. Es ist nicht möglich, über die Kräfte zu sprechen, die die Richtung der Konfrontation Israels mit seinen Nachbarn beeinflussen, ohne auf den russischen Faktor einzugehen, der meine Kernkompetenz ist.

Der Einfluss Russlands bestand bisher darin, die Dinge zu beruhigen und sich nicht in den Konflikt einzumischen, da Moskau mit dem Krieg in der Ukraine alle Hände voll zu tun hat. Es heißt, dass Russland Druck auf seinen Freund Bashar Assad in Syrien ausübt, um Damaskus aus der Schusslinie zu halten. Ein israelischer Totalangriff auf den Libanon, der Netanjahus nächster Schritt sein könnte, wenn es im Gazastreifen zu einer Flaute kommt, würde das russische Profil in diesem Konflikt jedoch wahrscheinlich deutlich schärfen: zumindest als Lieferant von Raketen an die Houthis, die ein aktives und dringend benötigtes Eingreifen der USA im Namen Israels verhindern können, wenn das Land gegen die Hisbollah in den Krieg zieht, und maximal durch die Unterstützung der Milizen in Syrien und im Irak, die an der Achse des Widerstands unter der Ägide des Iran beteiligt sind.