Washington pushes China into Russia’s arms, pushes Iran into Russia’s arms

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All discussion in the Washington foreign policy establishment on how the Ukrainian war has pushed Russia into China’s arms and made it a ‘junior partner’ is utter nonsense.  My contention is that a hubristic U.S. foreign policy that pays no attention to what adversaries are saying because that is ‘disinformation’ has pushed China into Russia’s arms.

This took time to achieve: two years plus of the Special Military Operation, to be precise.  And this is not due just to blunders of the incompetents manning the top posts in the National Security Council and the State Department. No, the bipartisan majority in Congress has also enabled the incoming disaster for U.S. global standing by its full-voiced approval of punitive sanctions on Chinese goods and approval of what constitute kinetic war plans against Beijing as well as the formation of a military alliance directed against China in its neighborhood.  

The handwriting is on the wall. Beijing must support the new robust nuclear doctrine of Russia to ensure its neighbor’s victory over the U.S.-led coalition supporting Ukraine.

By the same token, unqualified U.S. support, including active participation in Israel’s latest atrocities in Lebanon that resulted in the death of Hezbollah’s high command has pushed Iran into Russia’s arms. The liberal-minded new president of Iran has reversed his recently declared readiness for dialogue with the signatories of the now suspended Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on nuclear arms. We saw the proof of that yesterday when Iran moved from wait-and-see mode into retaliatory mode for the humiliations Israel has inflicted on the Axis of Resistance. One hundred eighty ballistic missiles were fired at Israeli military targets and it would appear that they got through both the Iron Dome and air defenses provided by the U.S. fleet and by French anti-aircraft systems.

I contend that Iran’s missile attack on Israel was approved in advance by Moscow when Vladimir Putin sent his envoy to Teheran a few days earlier. It is unthinkable that Iran would challenge Netanyahu so directly without the certainty that Russian air defense systems give it the best protection known on this planet.

After serving as a reliable if unacknowledged guarantor of the state of Israel for decades, Russia has clearly changed sides.

There are also other important conclusions that we can draw from the above observations.

One of these relates to the open discussion I am having with John Helmer over Vladimir Putin’s commitment to defend Russia’s national interests.  Does he or does he not have backbone?  I insist that Russia’s backing for Iran, which surely made yesterday’s attack possible, is proof positive that the Russian president is ready for a fight with Washington that he previously avoided at all costs.  It is inevitable that Russia’s support for Iran will bring it into direct confrontation with Washington.

Who will blink first?   Given the vulnerability of all U.S. assets in the West Asian region starting with the aircraft carrier task force, I believe that Washington will blink first.

I intend to further develop these points as the situation evolves in coming days.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation into German below (Andreas Mylaeus)

Washington treibt China in die Arme Russlands, treibt den Iran in die Arme Russlands

Alle Diskussionen im außenpolitischen Establishment Washingtons darüber, wie der Ukraine-Krieg Russland in die Arme Chinas getrieben und es zu einem „Juniorpartner“ gemacht hat, sind völliger Unsinn. Ich behaupte, dass eine anmaßende US-Außenpolitik, die nicht darauf achtet, was die Gegner sagen, weil das „Desinformation“ sei, China in die Arme Russlands getrieben hat.

Dies hat Zeit gekostet: zwei Jahre und mehr der Militärischen Sonderoperation, um genau zu sein. Und das ist nicht nur auf die Fehler der Inkompetenten zurückzuführen, die die Spitzenpositionen im Nationalen Sicherheitsrat und im Außenministerium innehaben. Nein, auch die parteiübergreifende Mehrheit im Kongress hat durch ihre uneingeschränkte Zustimmung zu Strafzöllen auf chinesische Waren und zur Genehmigung von kinetischen Kriegsplänen gegen Peking sowie zur Bildung eines Militärbündnisses gegen China in seiner Nachbarschaft die Katastrophe für das weltweite Ansehen der USA heraufbeschworen.

Die Zeichen sind an der Wand. Peking muss die neue robuste Nukleardoktrin Russlands unterstützen, um den Sieg seines Nachbarn über die von den USA angeführte Koalition, die die Ukraine unterstützt, sicherzustellen.

Ebenso hat die uneingeschränkte Unterstützung der USA, einschließlich der aktiven Beteiligung an Israels jüngsten Gräueltaten im Libanon, die zum Tod des Oberkommandos der Hisbollah führten, den Iran in die Arme Russlands getrieben. Der liberal gesinnte neue Präsident des Iran hat seine kürzlich erklärte Bereitschaft zum Dialog mit den Unterzeichnern des nun ausgesetzten Gemeinsamen Umfassenden Aktionsplans für Atomwaffen rückgängig gemacht. Gestern haben wir den Beweis dafür gesehen, als der Iran von seiner abwartenden Haltung in den Vergeltungsmodus überging, um sich für die Demütigungen zu rächen, die Israel der Achse des Widerstands zugefügt hat. 180 ballistische Raketen wurden auf israelische Militärziele abgefeuert und es scheint, als hätten sie sowohl den „Iron Dome“ als auch die Luftverteidigung der US-Flotte und die französischen Flugabwehrsysteme durchbrochen.

Ich behaupte, dass der iranische Raketenangriff auf Israel im Voraus von Moskau genehmigt wurde, als Wladimir Putin einige Tage zuvor seinen Gesandten nach Teheran geschickt hat. Es ist undenkbar, dass der Iran Netanjahu so direkt herausfordern würde, ohne die Gewissheit, dass die russischen Luftverteidigungssysteme ihm den besten Schutz bieten, den es auf diesem Planeten gibt.

Nachdem Russland jahrzehntelang als zuverlässiger, wenn auch nicht anerkannter Garant für den Staat Israel gedient hatte, hat es eindeutig die Seiten gewechselt.

Aus den oben genannten Beobachtungen können wir noch weitere wichtige Schlussfolgerungen ziehen.

Eine davon bezieht sich auf die offene Diskussion, die ich mit John Helmer über Wladimir Putins Verpflichtung zur Verteidigung der nationalen Interessen Russlands führe. Hat er Rückgrat oder nicht? Ich bestehe darauf, dass die Unterstützung Russlands für den Iran, die den gestrigen Angriff sicherlich ermöglicht hat, ein eindeutiger Beweis dafür ist, dass der russische Präsident bereit ist, sich mit Washington anzulegen, was er zuvor um jeden Preis vermieden hat. Es ist unvermeidlich, dass die Unterstützung Russlands für den Iran das Land in eine direkte Konfrontation mit Washington bringen wird.

Wer wird zuerst nachgeben? Angesichts der Verwundbarkeit aller US-Einrichtungen in der Region Westasien, angefangen beim Flugzeugträger-Einsatzverband, glaube ich, dass Washington zuerst nachgeben wird. Ich beabsichtige, diese Punkte weiter auszuführen, während sich die Situation in den kommenden Tagen weiterentwickelt

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Published by gilbertdoctorow

Gilbert Doctorow's latest book, "War Diaries. The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022-2023" is a unique contribution to literature on the war thanks to the author's reports on the Russian home front written during his periodic visits to St Petersburg at a time when Russia no longer issued visas and nearly all Western journalists had left the country. Doctorow's two-volume "Memoirs of a Russianist" published in 2020 also constitutes a category of its own, consisting largely of diary entries rather than reminiscences written decades later.. Volume 2 focuses on the community of 50,000 expatriate managers working and living in Moscow during the 1990s, about which none of his peers has yet to write. Gilbert Doctorow is a professional Russia watcher and actor in Russian affairs going back to 1965. He is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. From 1998-2002, Doctorow served as the Chairman of the Russian Booker Literary Prize in Moscow. During the 2010-2011 academic year, he was a Visiting scholar of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University. Mr. Doctorow is a long-time resident of Brussels.

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One thought on “Washington pushes China into Russia’s arms, pushes Iran into Russia’s arms”

  1. Dr. Doctorow:

    As you develop this subject (Israel-Russia relations, and how they’ve changed) I hope you’ll use your Russian contact base to determine and report:

    a. How dependent upon Jewish oligarchs is Putin’s economy? How much can Putin afford to rock the production boat while he’s involved in one, and soon two major wars?

    b. How is the emergence of BRICS changing the financial and resulting trade dependencies such that Russia is less constrained by the Wests, and certainly the Zionist’s hold over banking? Those trade and financial sanctions are certainly executed by, if not authored by Zionist (Israel-centric) players.

    While this subject is surely a sensitive one to raise in the current journalistic climate, I wonder if conditions haven’t changed sufficiently such that it’s more possible to draw more-revealing linkages between what Israel’s supporters want, and what Putin’s Russia can actually do, and how that’s changing.

    Here in the West, we have the Zionist-control problem much worse than Russia does. U.S. foreign policy has, for years, been dictated by the NeoCons, who are strong Zionists. Our foreign policy, to a great degree, is directed toward “what’s good for Zionists”.

    And now we’re at the Main Fight, the one the Zionists have been angling for all these years. It’s finally here, sides are being chosen, alliances are being made, battlefields are being prepared, and the world’s dividing on the “what’s good for Zionists .vs. what’s good for the world” boundary-line.

    It’s that stark. *

    We, the public, have been systematically intimidated into _not_ expressing the reality that many clearly see. I understand – very well – the restraint that journalists must exercise with respect to articulating, clearly and concisely, this Zionist problem.

    It needs to get done anyway. Restraint, fear, intimidation or not, it needs to get done.

    The peculiar thing about many of us armchair commentators is the fact that we’re rooting for the Russians and the Chinese to face up these bullies _for_ us, because we’re too cowed to do it for ourselves. We’re co-opted, and we’re hoping the rest of the world will somehow rescue us.

    How much will the rest of the world respect us in the years to come?

    ========

    (*) : Some will say that attributing all the trouble to Zionism is too simplistic. It was simplistic, but it’s rapidly becoming less simplistic. For evidence, I draw your attention to the horror-show that occurs within the U.S. Congress chambers when Netanyahu makes an appearance.

    Can you think of any spectacle that would be more revealing of who drives the bus?

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