Alternative Media commentators from among intelligence veterans and military veterans had their time ‘on air’ on Friday, well before the Israeli attack on Iran carried out during the night of 25 – 26 October. For that reason, their evaluations of the attack have not yet appeared on youtube.
Accordingly, what I present here is based on my own layman’s evaluation of the Israeli attacks without reference to what the Martyanovs, Larry Johnsons or Scott Ritters will say eventually. My primary raw inputs are what major media in the West, in Russia and in the Middle East itself have published about the attack. I can point in particular to the video images from Teheran during the attack posted on this morning’s BBC World News.
The text message from all sides repeats the Israeli claims to have struck 20 military targets in Iran comprising missile and drone manufacturing facilities, as well as radar systems of the Iranian air defense. The former targets require no explanation; the latter are targets that are usually chosen by the attacking side to prepare the way for jets that will bomb substantial infrastructure at some time in the future.
As for Iran, the text of major Western media is that Iran denies any substantial damage was done. Such denial is considered to be a face-saving measure enabling Teheran not to respond to this latest Israeli aggression without appearing to be weak even if their losses were serious.
So far so good. We are left with an impression that we are being systematically underinformed by all sides in what is called ‘the fog of war.’
However, even a modest effort shows that there is something that we can divine from these sketchy inputs plus certain diverse information that has appeared in unofficial internet sources but was not tied together to any big-picture interpretation.
First, note that the Israeli attack on targets in and near Teheran was made by air to ground missiles. This is an entirely different type of attack from what Israel has been doing in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria. In those fronts the Israelis are primarily using their jets to drop bombs over or from near their targets, including the multi-ton highly destructive glide bombs that the United States has shipped to Israel in lavish quantities because of their destructive power and lethality.
We do not know the nature of the Israeli attack on two provinces of Iran close to the Iraqi border. No video images from there have been published. Perhaps the Israelis crossed the border into Iran, perhaps not. But they clearly hit the Teheran area from missiles fired at a great distance and the reason should be fairly obvious: because the Iranian air defense is robust and has been further strengthened in recent months by installation of Russia’s advanced S400 ground to air missiles.
Moreover, there is likely a second reason for the Israelis not flying very far into Iran: the lack of refueling tanker jets from the USA, which surely have not been offered to them. The Pentagon wants to prevent escalation of the conflict that would draw the States into the war and potentially into a direct clash with Russia, which will likely stand by its protégé in the region. We saw that in the ‘leak’ of highly confidential intelligence papers setting out the details of a devastating attack on Iran which Netanyahu had been planning. Here, too, by denial of refueling assistance we can discern the same resistance in the high ranks of the US military to the inane policies of the civilian leadership as represented by Biden and Blinken out of considerations of realism.
What do I hear and read in ‘unofficial’ internet sources, mostly Russia-based, that bears on the question at hand? It is that Russia provided to Teheran advance warning of the impending Israeli attack coming from its own technical means of intelligence gathering, presumably meaning satellites and/or AWACS. If this is true, then it demonstrates that Russia will provide effective and highly useful assistance to Iran as the conflict with Israel evolves, even though no binding mutual defense treaty has been signed, let alone ratified. The lack of a treaty in place is simply to prevent Iran from abusing a blank check and behaving irresponsibly.
How much damage was done to Iranian military infrastructure by the Israeli attack? The BBC video images show clearly that their air defense was operating and apparently blowing up incoming missiles. Therefore, we may well believe the Iranian claims that the damage to themselves was relatively minor. We may assume that Russia will be rushing in replacement missiles for those of its S400 expended in resisting the Israeli attack, or where needed to replace damaged Iranian air defense locations. Thus, Tel Aviv will be given pause when planning any deep incursions to stage bombing raids.
To put it in simpler language: for the Israelis Iran is not the relative child’s play of Gaza or Syria just as Hezbollah is not relative sitting duck, Hamas, but is a serious peer military force.
*****
This morning, I had the opportunity to set out some of the above observations in my status one of two panelists on a live broadcast carried by Iran’s Press TV. My fellow panelist was an expert based in Beirut. As soon as the link is made available, I will post it here.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Gilbert Doctorow 
Please keep up the good work. Being able to hear a synopsis of Russian opinion and thoughts is very helpful for those of us following the slide into WW-3. Cruising for a bruising was a childhood saying that pretty well sums up my opinion of current US foreign policy.
LikeLike
Thank you Gilbert, a sober and well argued set of provisional claims…..
LikeLike
“The BBC video images show clearly that their air defense was operating and apparently blowing up incoming missiles.”
It is the BBC, so we have to assume that the videos have been carefully curated to support a particular political point of view.
But let’s assume that the Iranian/Russian air defenses did indeed do a good job against incoming ballistic missiles. Does anyone remember the Far Left jibes about Ray Gun Ronnie and Star Wars when President Reagan proposed that the US should build anti-missile defenses? Fantasy, they said — technically impossible.
I don’t expect to hear any mea culpas from the Usual Suspects. But it is worth observing that their rejection of anti-missile defenses was probably not their only significant failure of judgment.
LikeLike
If the BBC curates videos to support a particular point of view, as you say, then they should not have shown the videos of the Israeli night attack since we see clearly that there are explosions in the air, not on the ground. This is just an example of the often occurring contradictions in major media between what the program presentre or reporter in the field is saying and what we actually see on the screen.
LikeLike
This depends on one’s assessment of the BBC. Everything seems to suggest that the BBC, like much of the English ruling elite, is anti-Israel. Thus, the BBC is happy to show videos of explosions in the sky and tell us that Israeli ballistic missiles are being shot down. (Star Wars!)
The obvious questions are (1) what was exploding …the incoming Israeli ballistic missile or the Iranian anti-missile missile? and (2) what percentage of the incoming missiles were intercepted and what percentage got through? The BBC videos do not give us much insight on those questions.
We are trying to understand events shrouded by all participants in a fog of war and deliberate mis-information. It is tough, and I appreciate your efforts to try to get to the facts.
LikeLike
» lack of refueling tanker jets from the USA, which surely have not been offered to them
We do not in point of fact know this.
» The Pentagon wants to prevent escalation of the conflict that would draw the States into the war
We do not know that either. Anything the Americans do/say (including the “leak”) serve the purpose of promoting plausible deniability and blostering the image of the US as a restraining force ceaseless working for peace. We do well do treat everything that is said about how the Americans are restraining Israel or Ukraine or apparent differences of opinion as quite possibly propaganda, fodder for the masses. Why else would it be in public view?
LikeLike
Dear Sir, You choose to misinterpret me. I placed my remarks about Pentagon restraint as predicated on my interpretation of the ‘leak’ of the Israeli plans for attack as having come from the Pentagon to effectively make such an attack impossible. And that supposition about the Pentagon having a more realistic appraisal of Who is Who and What is What than the White House can be traced further back several weeks to the Pentagon’s undoing of the Blinken-Biden plans to give Starmer the go-ahead for missile strikes deep inside Russia. This line of reasoning was advanced first by Ray McGovern, former CIA analyst and daily reporter of intelligence to presidents. It has my endorsement.
LikeLike
Not misinterpreting. Your interpretation is quite possible and plausible.
But I remain cautious, especially about what we do in fact know or not.
Perhaps Israel used its own tankers, though operating with 100 planes. US ‘restraint’ did not lead to closing Jordanian/Iraqi airspace, nor likely, withholding of critical ISR data.
But we know almost nothing about what is actually discussed behind closed doors, and everything that comes into the public domain is put there, be it true or not.
LikeLike
Just thought I would point out that US tankers were in all likelihood involved in the attack- in fact, this was the first indicator we had that an attack was imminent. There were multiple reports of large numbers of US tankers mobilized toward the middle east/west Asia on social media in the hours prior to the attack- 10 tankers, I believe was the number. That same day, there was a report by a USAF fighter pilot named Daniel Alwan on Twitter, who stated that he was airborne over the “holly land” around the same time. His tweet has since been deleted, but there are many screenshots circulating. So at minimum, the US supplied fueling logistics, and we already know that the US provides ISR. My guess is that the US, via pilots like Alwan, likely ran patrols over Israeli territory while the Israeli air force was occupied with their attack (BARCAP), but it’s also possible (however I would say unlikely) that they participated in the attack. Either way the air tanker fleet makes the US a direct participant in the attack- I do not see how that can be denied, but my guess is that it will not be talked about, outside well-informed alternative media sources.
Iran is so large and with a low enough population density, that we may not ever hear or see direct accounts of successful strikes on military targets. That said, given that Israel departed from their usual doctrine of attacking primarily civilian targets and political/military leadership targets in favor of military targets illustrates that Israel (and the US- I do not believe the US claims of non-involvement for an instant-I believe the US is directing this conflict-anyone who has read the “Which Path to Persia” published by Brookings can see this given that everything aligns perfectly with the proposed strategies therin. I pay attention to what they do, not what they say) is clearly intimidated by the Iranian military capability, and Iran’s willingness to strike enemy territory (much more willing/aggressive when compared to the Russian Federation).
Unlike everyone else, I saw no actual evidence that Israel made an attempt to attack Tehran. We saw unguided anti-aircraft artillery fire on video recorded from Tehran. AA artillery is fired in pre-planned patterns toward an calculated or assumed incoming attack vector to fill the airspace that incoming attack aircraft or cruise missiles must fly through with a dense cloud of high velocity fragments. I saw zero evidence of any secondary explosions, smoke or explosions on the ground, so the AA artillery may have been purely precautionary and there may have been no actual weapons that targeted Tehran, or alternatively, the incoming weapons were intercepted further away (S-400 and S-300, as well as TOR if TOR was provided to Iran would be AD layers that would be further away from Tehran in a well-planned, layered AD defense). Another indicator that no incoming missiles got close to Tehran is that we saw no activation of point-defense AD, which would be the final layer- point defense systems would be things like the western CIWS/CRAM or the Russian Tunguska/Pantsir systems. These are absolutely unmistakable when fired-they sound like chainsaws and leave very visible lines of closely spaced tracer fire. I’ve seen western reports that Iran took delivery of Pantsir systems, and although I am unsure whether or not this is true, I would guess that they at least have something that is relatively equivalent. The fact that we saw no evidence of point defense activation indicates, to me at least, that the Israeli attack either never targeted Tehran, or never reached Tehran due to being defeated by the outer AD layers.
Anyway-just thought I would share my thoughts. I hope someone finds them useful.
LikeLike
From the statements I have seen/read, Israeli airplane have not penetrated Iran’s airspace…
LikeLike
Who knows what the reality is? However, there is a Reuters report claiming that the Israeli attack successfully damaged Iranian facilities which made solid rocket fuel — thus significantly crimping Iran’s ability to build more missiles to attack Israel.
“Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers,” Eveleth said. “These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them.”
With a limited operation, he said, Israel may have struck a significant blow against Iran’s ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel’s missile defenses.
That kind of target would certainly be rational from the Israeli side — and would be one that the Iranians would not likely admit. However, we are all deep in the fog of dis-information.
GEOINT Data Shows Israel Hit Iran’s Former Nuke Weapons Test Building, Missile Production Facility | ZeroHedge
LikeLike
fog of war or not…my logic tells me that obviously Israeli attack planes approached Iranian border through the US controlled Jordanian and Iraqi airspace, but did not dare to enter Iranian airspace to avoid possible shoot downs of fighter planes by Iranian air defence. A good number of those Israeli missiles coming at Iranian targets appear to have been destroyed by joint Iranian-Russian air defence systems. Some however must have hit targets or so it seems but the actual extent and-or seriousness of damage is uncertain or rather foggy, enemies like to keep their cards close to their chest so to write..success tends to be exaggerated…anyway what really happened will surely be revealed in due time, time will tell as always. Depending on the seriousness of a possible Iranian response attack (a rather must for Iran if it does not want to appear being weak against Israeli aggression)on Israeli military sites we shall have an indication of how serious the damage inflicted by Israeli missiles actually was. All else probably remains guesswork and speculation until Iran makes its next inevitable move in its war against Zionist Israel. Its not over until the fat lady sings on stage!
LikeLike