‘Dialogue Works’ edition of 10 December: Russia and the turmoil in Syria and Georgia

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‘Dialogue Works’ edition of 10 December: Russia and the turmoil in Syria and Georgia

Today’s session with host Nima Alkhorshid focused primarily on the situation in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad.  Who are the winners and losers from this among the foreign interveners? Will the new HTS-backed government, with its just named premier coming from their administration running Idlib province, be able to maintain order throughout the country or is a Libya-like civil war likely to bring chaos and further bloodshed? Will the Russians be able to keep their naval and air bases in the country?  Will Russia contribute to the consolidation of the country given its extensive contacts with local authorities across Syria developed during 2015-2020?

We also discussed at some length how Turkey’s betrayal of arrangements agreed with Russia on dealing with Idlib back in 2020 will affect future relations between the two countries. The word I use to describe these relations going forward is one that will be very familiar to Americans as they contemplate Donald Trump’s approach to foreign affairs: transactional.

And we found time to talk about Donald Trump’s latest remarks on why the Russians must sue for peace. His estimates of Russian war losses and of the state of the Russian economy appear to be as delusional as those we have heard from the Biden administration’s chief propagandists Sullivan and Blinken.  One wonders where is his nominee for head of U.S. intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Can she provide him with an understanding of the present state of the war based on reality? Will he listen? Does his thinking have any relevance to the way the Russia-Ukraine war will end?

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaBxzJleSm0

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

„Dialogue Works“-Ausgabe vom 10. Dezember: Russland und die Unruhen in Syrien und Georgien

Die heutige Sitzung mit Gastgeber Nima Alkhorshid konzentrierte sich hauptsächlich auf die Lage in Syrien nach dem Sturz von Baschar al-Assad. Wer sind die Gewinner und Verlierer unter den ausländischen Interventen? Wird die neue, von der HTS unterstützte Regierung, deren gerade ernannter Premierminister aus ihrer Verwaltung stammt, die die Provinz Idlib leitet, in der Lage sein, im ganzen Land für Ordnung zu sorgen, oder wird ein Bürgerkrieg wie in Libyen wahrscheinlich zu Chaos und weiterem Blutvergießen führen? Werden die Russen ihre Marine- und Luftwaffenstützpunkte im Land behalten können? Wird Russland angesichts seiner umfangreichen Kontakte zu lokalen Behörden in ganz Syrien, die es im Zeitraum 2015–2020 aufgebaut hat, zur Konsolidierung des Landes beitragen?

Wir haben auch ausführlich darüber gesprochen, wie sich der Verrat der Türkei an den mit Russland vereinbarten Vereinbarungen über den Umgang mit Idlib im Jahr 2020 auf die künftigen Beziehungen zwischen den beiden Ländern auswirken wird. Das Wort, das ich verwende, um diese künftigen Beziehungen zu beschreiben, ist den Amerikanern sehr vertraut, wenn sie über Donald Trumps Herangehensweise an die Außenpolitik nachdenken: Transaktion.

Und wir fanden Zeit, über Donald Trumps jüngste Äußerungen darüber zu sprechen, warum die Russen um Frieden bitten müssen. Seine Schätzungen der russischen Kriegsverluste und des Zustands der russischen Wirtschaft scheinen ebenso wahnhaft zu sein wie die, die wir von den Chefpropagandisten der Biden-Regierung, Sullivan und Blinken, gehört haben. Man fragt sich, wo seine Kandidatin für den Posten des US-Geheimdienstchefs, Tulsi Gabbard, bleibt. Kann sie ihm ein realistisches Bild vom aktuellen Kriegsgeschehen vermitteln? Wird er zuhören? Hat seine Denkweise irgendeine Relevanz für das Ende des Russland-Ukraine-Krieges? Siehe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaBxzJleSm0

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Published by gilbertdoctorow

Gilbert Doctorow's latest book, "War Diaries. The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022-2023" is a unique contribution to literature on the war thanks to the author's reports on the Russian home front written during his periodic visits to St Petersburg at a time when Russia no longer issued visas and nearly all Western journalists had left the country. Doctorow's two-volume "Memoirs of a Russianist" published in 2020 also constitutes a category of its own, consisting largely of diary entries rather than reminiscences written decades later.. Volume 2 focuses on the community of 50,000 expatriate managers working and living in Moscow during the 1990s, about which none of his peers has yet to write. Gilbert Doctorow is a professional Russia watcher and actor in Russian affairs going back to 1965. He is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. From 1998-2002, Doctorow served as the Chairman of the Russian Booker Literary Prize in Moscow. During the 2010-2011 academic year, he was a Visiting scholar of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University. Mr. Doctorow is a long-time resident of Brussels.

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4 thoughts on “‘Dialogue Works’ edition of 10 December: Russia and the turmoil in Syria and Georgia”

  1. “people like John Helmer who has an indisputable advantage, at least theoretically, sitting in Moscow and not sitting in Brussels or London or New York”

    Wasn’t Helmer expelled from Russia several years ago? He has stated this on his website. Was he eventually let back in?

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    1. Wherever he is, he’s an utter clown and I’m frankly sick of seeing him referenced in the alt-media sphere. He doesn’t even know what the Russian General Staff is, and how it functions, yet claims to have inside sources there. His real sources: “trust me bro”.

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      1. He’s always struck me as a crank. His overheated writing style and those cartoon images he likes to use contribute to the impression.

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  2. Just a quick note that there are still direct flights between Russia and Georgia, at least I hope there are because I have a ticket on one for the New Year holiday.

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