‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 2 January: How the War in Ukraine Will End

Uncategorized 2 Minutes

‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 2 January:  How the War in Ukraine Will End

The title which Judge Napolitano assigned to this chat says it all. We discussed in particular why Vladimir Putin is amenable to meeting with Donald Trump given the bellicose statements that General Kellogg and others whom Trump is bringing into his administration have been making and their nonstarter proposals for simply postponing Ukraine’s accession to NATO for some more years, which the Russians have rejected outright. 

The Russians may have no illusions about the United States but they know, as the Soviets once did, that all of the European leaders count for nothing, that they are all underlings or proxies for the USA. 

In short, the Russians can pulverize the Ukrainian army and may do so in the coming weeks before the inauguration in Washington.  But to find peace in Europe they must strike a deal with Washington over the downsizing or dissolution of NATO.

I appreciated the opportunity to remind viewers that Russia is a democracy, in its own fashion, and that Mr Putin is not only a statesman but also a politician who has to deal with pressures from various strata of the population. And that is why this war has been drawn out so long: for the Kremlin to overpower Ukraine at a stroke, they would have had to bring into play far more troops than were available in February 2022, meaning through mass mobilization.  And such a mobilization would have been very unpopular.  This political stress was avoided by using the war of attrition method that Russia has applied.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

„Judging Freedom”-Ausgabe vom 2. Januar: Wie der Krieg in der Ukraine enden wird.

Der Titel, den Judge Napolitano diesem Chat gegeben hat, sagt alles. Wir haben insbesondere darüber diskutiert, warum Wladimir Putin zu einem Treffen mit Donald Trump bereit ist, angesichts der kriegerischen Äußerungen von General Kellogg und anderen, die Trump in seine Regierung holt, und ihrer untauglichen Vorschläge, den NATO-Beitritt der Ukraine einfach um einige Jahre zu verschieben, was die Russen rundheraus abgelehnt haben.

Die Russen mögen sich keine Illusionen über die Vereinigten Staaten machen, aber sie wissen, wie einst die Sowjets, dass alle europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs nichts zählen, dass sie alle Untergebene oder Stellvertreter der USA sind.

Kurz gesagt, die Russen können die ukrainische Armee vernichten, und das möglicherweise in den kommenden Wochen vor der Amtseinführung in Washington. Aber um Frieden in Europa zu finden, müssen sie mit Washington eine Einigung über die Verkleinerung oder Auflösung der NATO erzielen.

Ich habe die Gelegenheit genutzt, um die Zuschauer daran zu erinnern, dass Russland auf seine eigene Art und Weise eine Demokratie ist und dass Herr Putin nicht nur ein Staatsmann, sondern auch ein Politiker ist, der sich mit dem Druck verschiedener Bevölkerungsschichten auseinandersetzen muss. Und deshalb hat sich dieser Krieg so lange hingezogen: Um die Ukraine mit einem Schlag zu überwältigen, hätte der Kreml weitaus mehr Truppen ins Spiel bringen müssen, als im Februar 2022 verfügbar waren, d.h. durch eine Massenmobilisierung. Und eine solche Mobilisierung wäre sehr unpopulär gewesen. Dieser politische Stress wurde durch die von Russland angewandte Zermürbungskrieg-Methode vermieden.

Unknown's avatar

Published by gilbertdoctorow

Gilbert Doctorow's latest book, "War Diaries. The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022-2023" is a unique contribution to literature on the war thanks to the author's reports on the Russian home front written during his periodic visits to St Petersburg at a time when Russia no longer issued visas and nearly all Western journalists had left the country. Doctorow's two-volume "Memoirs of a Russianist" published in 2020 also constitutes a category of its own, consisting largely of diary entries rather than reminiscences written decades later.. Volume 2 focuses on the community of 50,000 expatriate managers working and living in Moscow during the 1990s, about which none of his peers has yet to write. Gilbert Doctorow is a professional Russia watcher and actor in Russian affairs going back to 1965. He is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. From 1998-2002, Doctorow served as the Chairman of the Russian Booker Literary Prize in Moscow. During the 2010-2011 academic year, he was a Visiting scholar of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University. Mr. Doctorow is a long-time resident of Brussels.

Published

One thought on “‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 2 January: How the War in Ukraine Will End”

  1. The wider issues of NATO might be on the table for some degree of discussion.

    However I think the issue of Ukraine gets settled, as it is now. On the battlefield.

    Russia has no true incentive to tolerate the existence of a congenitally hostile anti-Russia. They played *that* game for thirty years.

    The costs of allowing Ukraine to exist as a sovereign or proxy entity both, past, present & future. Outweigh the cost of destroying it.

    Particularly given the hardest days of the war for Russia are done. Whilst Ukraine is about to “Paraguay itself”.

    By recruiting/running off, it’s very shallow remaining manpower pool of under 25 y/o men.

    Like

Comments are closed.