Transcript of NewsX panel discussion

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NewsX: 0:00
On New Year’s Day, Russia launched a drone strike on Kiev, killing two and injuring six while damaging buildings in two districts, including a residential building. President Zelenskyy confirmed Russia’s actions, emphasising that even on New Year’s Eve, Russia’s focus was solely on harming Ukraine. In a related development, Russian gas exports through a Soviet-era pipeline running across Ukraine were halted on New Year’s Day. This marks the end of Moscow’s decades-long dominance over Europe’s energy markets. Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned company, confirmed the stoppage at 5 o’clock GMT after Ukraine refused to renew the gas transit agreement.

0:38
While this was widely anticipated, experts suggest that the suspension will not affect European Union gas prices in contrast to the sharp price hikes experienced in 2022 when Russia’s reduced gas supply triggered an energy crisis. First we’re going to be joined by our correspondent Aditya Wadwan. Aditya, I’d like to bring back to the strikes themselves that we saw over the New Year’s period. We know two people have died, six people have been injured. What else do you know?

NewsX correspondent Waghwan: 1:07
Well Josh, absolutely as you rightly pointed out, Russia retaliated to the Ukrainian drone strikes that took place in the Russian city of Kazan, you know, I mean, you know, I mean Russia launched the series of missiles and drones and you know the first explosion was heard at around 3 AM in Kiev and the second explosion was heard around 8 AM in the morning. So, you know, this is you know, this seems to be an unending war, you know, the war has been going on for quite some time now since 2022, the last year Ukraine war started and there has been no stopping since then, you know.

On the other side, if you see, you know, let’s put this into perspective, you know, Russian president, on one hand Russian president Vladimir Putin says that he’s ready to make compromises on the Ukraine war on the position of strength and not on weakness. But on the other hand, the other side, Russia is retaliating, is attacking Ukrainian cities again and again. And you know, so this needs to be seen as to how this entire scenario is, you know, going forward.

It is not clear as of now that after Donald Trump takes office as a US President on 20th January, whether this war will stop or not. So this needs to be seen, George. As we mentioned, the result of this, what has happened is that the Ukraine has stopped the flow or the gas supply to the European this will make really impact Russia’s position as a monopoly and energy supplier to the European also this needs to be seen yes George back to you in the studios.

2:45
Thank you Aditya I’m going to bring it back to the gas flow and I’m going to go to Gilbert Doctorow, a Russian affairs expert who joins us now. Gilbert Doctorow, in terms of the impact that this could have on Russia, we’ve seen, of course, that Zelensky has hailed it as a defeat for Moscow, but what will the impact be felt in Russia and what could be the financial impact?

Doctorow: 3:10
Well, the impact on Russia is likely to be negligible. To put a dollar sign next to this action, Russia has been supplying six and a half billion dollars per year in gas via the Ukrainian pipelines. That will now be zero.

At the same time, Ukraine will lose its transit fees, which have been one billion dollars per year. So both sides will be taking a cut. But I think the Ukrainian economy is vastly weaker than the Russian economy. The Russian economy, just to give you an example, Russia has imposed on itself a deprivation of export sales for its military equipment, for all of its tanks and artillery and whatever else that is purchased by India, by many countries around the world, because this equipment is needed for Russia’s continuing the military action in Ukraine. Russia has been by–

NewsX: 4:15
Sorry, Gilbert, to interrupt. I want to bring it back though to the impact that has been there on Russian businesses. We’ve seen of course that many Western companies have taken business away from Russia even though some are still operating on a smaller scale, but there must be some impact on this. It can’t be nothing. We’re looking at many, many businesses that have stopped trading with Russia. Experts have said that Russia in their current state can’t carry out a continued war for more than maybe one or two years at this rate. So there must be some impact. It can’t be negligible.

Doctorow: 4:46
Those same people who are saying what you just quoted expected that Russia would run out of artillery shells after a few months following the entry into the war in February 2022. So those same people are not to be taken as experts; they are propagandists. As regards money, as I was saying, Russia has cut off 35 billion dollars in its own military exports for a year. So what difference will a six and a half billion dollar loss [make]? And part of that is not a loss, because Russia will replace these pipeline sales by more LNG sales. The European Union imported more LNG from Russia in 2024 than in 2023. There are a lot of complications to this story, and a simple approach that Russia’s a loser is just propaganda from Kiev.

NewsX: 5:40
Ambassador Suresh Goel, I’m going to come to you next, because I really want to look at the impact that this is going to have on the rest of Europe. We saw when the war started– or when the war at least escalated past the 2014 Crimea annexation– we saw gas prices across the continent of Europe rise dramatically, and that is still being felt across Europe. But in terms of the financial impact, the EU are saying it’s not going to [be] that big of an issue. So can you provide some more context potentially on that for us?

Ambassador Goel:
My own sense is that if you look at the overall performance of pressured economy ever since the war with Ukraine began and also from the context of financial instruments to put pressure on any country, most often this pressure or the impact of any kind of financial pressures or the trade or sanctions has the impact only as far as the country subject to this pressure allows it to take it.

6:45
Let me explain what I mean. Iran, I am just giving a context here really. The USA had thought that Iran after all the trade sanctions, all the economic sanctions or the gas on the oil trade etc etc would be subjugated after some time and would actually [submit] to the USA demands on nuclear program. It didn’t happen. They continued with the nuclear enrichment, uranium enrichment.

Russia are in with the beginning of the Ukraine war there has been enormous pressure, and now there is no doubt that the Russian economy has been impacted. And it has been analyzed in the various articles of public domain, but not to the extent that the world thought it would happen.

7:39
They have been able to continue with the war effort despite all the pressure, and there are buyers of the oil, as unanticipated before. So my own sense would be that there would be an impact, but who will suffer from this? Moldova has had to cut down on their own energy xxxxxxx, and they are suffering from heat, a lack of heat. Therefore the countries which could be impacted by gas supply stoppage at this time, at this severe winter, would of course be only the also the countries who were actually buying gas earlier. Therefore, while the impact of Russia could be temporary for a few months till they find alternative buyers, impact on the European economies and people would be far more. And that is my sense.

NewsX: 8:37
Thank you very much, and we will continue to bring you the latest updates from across the Russia-Ukraine war, and any further developments that we have across the EU, with the continuation of the fuel crisis.