Transcript of News X round table discussion of Ukraine-Russia war

Note: pay attentlon to the reasoning, arguments of my three fellow panelists. OK, one is a die-hard Zelensky regime supporter, but the Americans! Wow, folks who never pick up a mainstream newspaper to see how the war is really going, let alone look to alternative media. They are living in the post-factual world, a bubble of propaganda. Just a reminder: know the enemy!

Transcript submitted by a reader

NewsX: 0:00
Hello and welcome, I’m Joshua Barnes, and today we were having a insightful discussion on the actions and decisions to be made by US President Donald Trump to put an end to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It was believed that the raging Russia-Ukraine war will be significantly impacted by the US administration. The new President, Donald Trump, had claimed to put an end to the war in just a day as soon as he took over office. Now, with his victory, he seems to be working on a– cracking a peace deal between the warring countries. Trump has called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him immediately.

He also talked about the willingness of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate a deal. Replying to Trump’s request, the Kremlin say that Moscow was ready for a dialogue with Trump. What now awaits is the meeting of the two leaders. Trump has also said the Saudi nations and OPEC plus to reduce oil prices which according to him will be able to end the war sooner. Resultingly the oil prices fell down by one percent. With Trump’s repeated warnings to Russia for a peace deal and increasingly aggressive behaviour of Russia on Ukraine, the future of the war remains uncertain.

1:12
Joining us today we have Professor Olexiy Haran, who’s joining us from the Kiev Mohyla University in Kiev. We have John Rossomando, president of the Viking Research Associates and a geopolitical analyst in Washington. We have Gilbert Doctorow, a Russian affairs expert joining us from Brussels and finally Adrian Calamel, a Middle East expert joining us from New York.

Trump’s comments relating to oil, Gilbert Doctorow: he said that if the prices drop, then Russia’s ability to fight in this war will end. But the Kremlin have hit back within the last hour and said that wars are not built off oil, they’re built off security. So looking at the statement that the Kremlin has made, do you think that there is still some friction there between Trump and Putin’s administrations?

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: 2:02
It’s not a question of friction. It’s a question of whether Mr. Trump and his advisors read the records in the State Department to see where the United States has been previously. I was just going over my own notes from April 2021 in the period preceding the first and only summit between Biden and Putin.

And Mr. Biden’s State Department did the same foolish and counterproductive things that Mr. Trump is doing now, threatening Russia, trying to establish negotiations from a position of strength, which is utterly unacceptable to the Kremlin. Mr. Putin stated clearly that they look for fair treatment and equal treatment and equal respect of the parties as they meet.

2:57
Before Biden met with Putin, they introduced new sanctions. They introduced various punishments to show who was calling the shots and that they thought they would bring Mr. Putin to heel. That’s exactly the mistake, the utterly foolish and ignorant position of Mr. Trump today.

When he says what he did about how World War II was fought and how the Russians helped the Americans to win the war, he is committing sacrilege from the standpoint of Russian public opinion and Russian elite opinion. They know that they won the war, not the United States, that the Wehrmacht, three-quarters of its strength, was pitted against Russia, not against the United States.

3:46
Mistakes like this are unacceptable. Mr. Trump is utterly unprepared for a summit with Mr. Putin, and I don’t believe it will take place shortly. The Russians are very close to totally destroying the frontlines of Ukraine, and they have no intention of pausing for a ceasefire to allow Mr. Zelensky to restore his order, to bring in new mobilized forces, and to get further arms equipment from the United States and its allies. This is out of order.

What the Russians want to discuss with Mr. Trump, and they do want to meet with him, is a division of the world order. They expect that Mr. Trump’s emphasis on the Monroe Doctrine, on reestablishing American total hegemony in the Western Hemisphere is balanced by the recognition that the United States cannot keep its arms around the whole world and should be sharing, must be sharing responsibility for step for global stability with the other two superpowers, China and Russia.

NewsX: 5:00
Yes, Professor Olexiy Haran, we have heard Gilbert Doctorow’s response; I’d like your response to Trump’s comments.

Haran:
Well, first of all if we’re talking about the course of Trump well … there’s a lot of uncertainty and on the one thing Trump is saying importance of settlement, importance of stopping the war, but the question is how and what should be the concessions from different sides. For example, if I hear new state secretary, Mr. Rubio, he said very right that, I am quoting him, that we know who is aggressor, aggressor is Russia, Ukraine is a victim. That’s very good.

However, then he’s talking that both sides, it’s important for both sides to make concessions. So my question is what kind of concessions from Ukraine? As far as I understand, Mr. Gilbert, you are apologetic about Mr. Putin.

You are talking that the United States are guilty of what’s going on. I think this is a typical, this is a propaganda from Kremlin. We know who started the war. We know what were the reasons for the war. Putin is not close to crush Ukraine, No.

But he may deliver a lot of troubles and a lot of victims. He doesn’t care about people’s lives at all. And the next, the aim of Putin is not just Ukraine. He would like to change the whole world. Yes, you are right in this sense.

He would like to destabilize the whole world. He would like to create the acts of evil, which will include Iran, North Korea, China, and maybe some other states which are inclined to aggression. So that’s the real aim of Putin. He’s talking about crushing the whole Ukrainian nation. He’s saying Ukrainians don’t exist.

Ukrainians do not exist. Is it the right approach, or this is the approach of aggressor? So here we have very difficult actually question how to proceed. And we Ukrainians we don’t believe in the policy of appeasement of aggressor. You may remember Munich agreement of 1938 at the expense of Czechoslovakia. This was appeasement of aggressor and what happened later? World War II.

7:51
Because aggressor didn’t stop. So this is the whole problem how to react. Yes we think that economic sanctions are not enough but there should be a combined approach of the whole civilised world to stop this crazy total unjustified aggression.

NewsX:
Yes, Adrian Calamel, I want to bring it back to potentially ending a conflict. You of course are a Middle Eastern expert and we’ve seen Donald Trump’s influence in ending one sort of war and one series of fights and catastrophes going on. What do you think that the impact can be of Donald Trump in this conflict. He of course has said in his first day that the war would end. We’ve had his first day, it hasn’t, but his strong rhetoric clearly is leaning towards trying to get this done as soon as possible.

Calamel: 8:44
Thank you for having me. I think we need to take a pause. It’s only been four days since he’s been put in, you know, sworn into office here. He does have a plan going forward. Trump has a approach of playing probably good cop, bad cop in a lot of places in the world. But he’s putting out messaging there for Zelensky, for Putin.

I think from Zelensky he wants clear, defined outcomes. What are we looking for? What are the objectives? And can we meet those? With Putin, we know that he is unwavering. He is not going to sign any type of agreement.

9:24
He wants to recreate a quasi-Soviet Union. He was the one who actually said that the fall of the Soviet Union was one of the greatest travesties of the 20th century. So what Trump needs to do is realize he has enormous leverage right now because North Korea, I mean, Russia is suffering from a manpower problem and a firepower problem. Didn’t have a fire problem before, but now they have both. Manpower problem, they’re bringing North Korean troops onto the battlefield ill-equipped, untrained, and being swooped up.

10:02
And they have a firepower problem that they were bringing in drones, ballistic missiles from the Islamic Republic, which thankfully the Israelis took out those factories. So Trump has a couple of options here, and I don’t think he’s going to sit down and play a game of poker, such as the Blinken administration did, or Blinken State Department, where you sit down with a full house and you act like you got a pair of deuces in your hand when you actually have a full house. Play from a position of strength. And that’s what we have here is we have enormous economic leverage over the Russians. And at this time, they are, they’re pressed militarily.

10:42
And I think at the end of the day, we need to put a NATO blanket. I know this is the thing that Putin will cry about, call foul over and over, but NATO is a defensive alliance and if Ukraine had been in NATO, I highly doubt whether this invasion would have happened because it would have triggered Article 5, and that’s what Putin’s afraid of. That’s why he doesn’t want Poland, didn’t want Poland. That’s why Finland joined because World War II, who did the Soviet Union invade? Finland. NATO is there for a reason.

NewsX: 11:14
John Rossomando, I’d like to bring it back to Trump’s comments about oil. Do you think that there may be an ulterior motive here? Of course, we know a comment that he made during his inauguration speech, “We are going to drill, baby, drill.” Do you think Trump’s comments on oil could be continued, specifically with him looking to work with Saudi Arabia and other oil producing nations?

Rossomando:
Well, if we look back to history, Ronald Reagan went to Saudi Arabia, I think it was like ’85 or something like that, and got the Saudis to ramp up their oil production, which destroyed the Soviet economy, contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, because it couldn’t pay its bills. The number one thing that gave Vladimir Putin the wherewithal following the pandemic to not to second invasion of Ukraine, was the fact that oil and gas revenues started going up precipitously. And if you’re a country like Russia that has one major source of revenue, you know, it would really hurt the ability of the Russians to pay the Iranians, pay the Chinese, pay the North Koreans for whatever they’re getting for their arms and their weapons, and President Trump is hoping that this can be leveraged just as it was at the end of the Soviet period.

NewsX: 12:47
Gilbert, Doctorow, looking at the threats of sanctions that Trump has made and now the comments about dropping oil prices, how debilitating do you think this could be to Russia given the sanctions on other sectors in which they were generating funds and in a war that is depleting funds of the Russian nation?

Doctorow:
These sanctions will have no effect, and they have made Trump the laughing stock of Moscow elites in the last couple of days. The notion that raising tariffs on Russia’s sales of goods to the United States will cripple Russia — he’s failing to see that the total volume of sales in 2024 were 300 million dollars, mostly uranium, which the United States needs to keep its nuclear power plants running.

The United States has no leverage over Russia. Mr. Trump’s statement that “we have a lot of power over Russia” is totally misinformed. It’s bravado, and it hasn’t been researched, which makes him look like a fool. He is now repeating the same mistakes that Biden made only with a different personality and perhaps a more lively mind. But the end result is negative.

14:02
The United States has no leverage over Russia that it has not already exercised under Biden. And if there is more that it could do, it would have led to World War III. And that was perfectly well understood in Washington, which is why they held back. They don’t want to be killed. The only power the United States has over Russia is its nuclear missiles.

And Russia more than outdoes that in its hypersonic and other intercontinental ballistic missiles directed against the United States. So this notion of negotiating from strength is a non-starter and Mr Trump should step back, find some consultants who know something about Russia, which his do not.

NewsX: 14:48
Professor Haran, looking at any potential deal to end the war, if of course the frictions can be resolved and Trump can resume his promised role of mediator between the two warring nations, how do you think Zelensky might deal with a potential concession over land that has been taken by RussiaI

Haran:
I would like to throw the question back to you, Mr. Moderator. What will India do if it’s attacked and its territory is seized and next and the whole country is bombarded? What would be your position? I am sorry for this question. I hope it will never happen. But if it happens, what would you do? Will you agree, you know, to concessions to give part of your territory to other states?

NewsX:
Well looking at the situation where potentially Russia is advancing in Ukraine, there is potentially a thought that that could get worse and that appeasement as you’ve mentioned is not necessarily an option but ending the fighting ending the bloodshed. Do you think that’s something that Zelensky might lean towards if that does mean losing any territory at all?

Haran: 16:03
Look, the situation is difficult, definitely. Putin is moving very slowly and losing lots of Russians. That’s the story, but he is moving, though slowly. So what we need, we need support, we need more support. And it includes economic sanctions, and it includes also military support. If you are talking about economic sanctions, I would like to say the GDP of Russia, Mr. Gilbert do you know, it’s like the GDP of California or Spain or Italy, nothing else. So from economic point of view, Russia cannot compete with Western countries. The only thing Russia can do is nuclear blackmail. And this is what Putin is doing, and this is what you are repeating. Okay?

16:53
So, unfortunately, the West is afraid of nuclear blame, so here I should recognize that Putin’s strategy of blackmailing the West with nuclear catastrophe works. Now, and I think that the best approach should be, as I have said, from the very beginning of this war, you know, to stop Russian aggression. And it can, could be stopped by force, because Putin understands only the logic of force, and he is not a suicide. He doesn’t in reality want nuclear war because he would also die.

Now, regarding concessions, again, let me repeat. The situation is not easy. Now, so my prediction is no Ukrainian president as well as no civilized country would ever recognize annexations of part of Ukraine by Russia. Never ever. And you can see the results of voting in the General Assembly of the United Nations at the beginning of agggression. 140 countries in favor of territorial integrity of Ukraine. Only four countries actually supported Russia.

18:26
So, but there’s no question about legal recognition of annexation. But, you know, if there is approach to freeze the xxxx unfortunately it will mean de facto continued occupation of part of Ukrainian territory, and it would send wrong signals to any nuclear power. Because the signal would be that nuclear power can blackmail other countries and seize whatever territories they would like to seize. And this is true about China, this is true about Iran, even about North Korea. So unfortunately it will create huge precedent for the whole international [relations], not only in Europe, but also in other parts of the world. It would be very, very dangerous.

19:22
That’s why I think that we need to stick to international law, which is very clear. The international law is very clear about territorial integrity of Ukraine. Look, Russia recognized the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Russia had to be a guarantor of territorial integrity of Ukraine, of neutral Ukraine. And neutral Ukraine was attacked by Russia in a very [cynical] way.

So again there could be different scenarios, good ones, bad ones, some in the middle, but what is really important: to show to Russia as aggressor and to any potential aggression that their nuclear blackmail doesn’t work. That’s really important for the future of international relations.

NewsX: 20:13
Yes, and looking at that potential deal, I want to come back to the fighting, which of course is ongoing. The Ukrainian army, Ukraine themselves, the government have relied heavily on US support. Adrian Calamel, if Trump is, sort of wavers in that support, it could be devastating for Ukraine.

Whether a deal is struck within the next three to six months or not, the losses could be massive. So do you think that this is Trump trying to sort of end a conflict so he doesn’t have to fund it? And if he is looking at the financial implications for the US, what could him withdrawing those funds really do?

Calamel: 20:50
I think, great question, I think before Trump, the discussion withdrawing funds, etc., he needs to get some clear defined objectives. There’s been no end game to this war. There’s been counterattacks. There’s been counteroffensives. There’s been defensive measures taken. We see the American military aid that’s come in. It’s been the Ukraine asking for it six months before they actually get it. They’re begging for it. And it’s basically just been to stay in the fight. It’s not been to press the fight. Now, to press the fight, it’s going to be very difficult.

You know, there’s areas like Donbass, Crimea. I mean, the Russians have been embedded in there for years now. After they baloney-sliced– Putin has taken the Hitler version of foreign policy and baloney-sliced his way across Europe and waiting until someone stands up. Ukraine became the sort of Poland, I would say, in this case, where he went a step too far. So Trump needs clear defined objectives. He wants to find what Zelensky wants, what he needs.

21:55
And he needs to make sure at the end of the day, to end this war, it needs to be a type of outcome where Putin never feels like he can invade another sovereign nation again. And one of those ways to do that is for entrance into NATO and to make sure that he knows that he will be punished and he will be forced to pay for the damages, for the lives, and those types of things. Let’s look at the atrocities he’s committed. Why aren’t we talking about war crimes? You see all these things leveled against the Israeli government for their actions against a terrorist attack.

And then you have Putin invading another country and creating, using terrorist tactics, using these types of things. So this type of evil cannot be invited into the world. It needs to be stemmed off. And we also need to understand, Trump needs to understand that Russia, the Islamic Republic of Iran and China all coordinate. And you can’t compartmentalize them because you take your foot off Russia, play nice with them. And all of a sudden China says, “Oh, this is a green light.” And I just want to pivot back to something Gilbert said before. We need to lose the false binary narrative that it’s either peace, give Putin whatever he wants, or you got World War III. That’s not the situation.

That’s not the situation. That’s fear-mongering. And the United States has enormous leverage. I think we need to remember that. So I object to the fact that we don’t have leverage. And the binary narrative, it just doesn’t work. That’s what we heard with the JCPOA. It’s give the Islamic Republic a nuclear weapon, or it’s going to be World War III.

NewsX: 23:42
John Rossomando, just to finish off quickly, We’ve seen Trump almost dangle the carrot of a meeting with Putin and potentially looking like their relationship is going to be closer than it was between Biden and Putin, but he continues a rhetoric which is very strong in terms of imposing sanctions. Do you think that that meeting will happen and what do you think the result will be?

Rossomando:
Well, I think that there eventually will be a meeting between Putin and Trump. However, the outcome of that meeting is to be determined. I think that President Trump should consider things like sanctions against Kazakhstan, which has become kind of the external battery resource of the Russian economy in a way that the Chinese have been able to clandestinely provide goods and services to the Russian economy, and where Russian companies have been able to go to continue their operations and evade sanctions. So I think that everything needs to be on the table, and I think that the biggest problem we have with Ukraine, as Adrian was pointing out, there’s no strategy for victory. We’ve been just fighting a stalemate for years without any goals, without any offensives.

25:06
I mean, the biggest example that comes to my mind is the 1991 Persian Gulf War, in which the United States and its coalition kicked the Iraqis out of Kuwait. Russia’s using the same tactics, the same strategies, but no one has any strategy for the Ukrainians to knock the Russians out. The Russians aren’t leaving, So there needs to be some sort of pragmatic solution.

NewsX:
John Rossamando, thank you for your time. Thank you also to Professor Olexiy Haran. Thank you, Gilbert Doctorow. And finally, thank you, Adrian Calamel.

25:41
As this ongoing situation between Trump, Putin, Zelensky, and the ongoing war continues, we will bring you all of the latest from Russia, Ukraine, the USA and the rest of the world.