Transcript of WION ‘Game Plan’: Macron’s nuclear umbrella

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Shivan Chanana, WION: 0:00
Can France, which has a total of 290 nuclear warheads, defend entire Europe against Russia?

Doctorow:
Most of what he’s been saying for the last couple of weeks is only spun out of his imagination.
The idea that Trump will remove the United States from NATO is a certainty.
Russia has no interest in possessing the whole of Ukraine.

WION: 0:33
As the divide between US and Europe widens, French President Emmanuel Macron came out swinging projecting his country, France, as the possible new saviour for Europe.

In a televised address, Macron made three key points. Russian aggression knows no borders, suggesting that Russia won’t stop at Ukraine and poses a threat to entire Europe. He said Europe must be prepared to defend itself without the US if that comes to becoming a reality. And France is willing to extend its nuclear umbrella to European partners, which essentially means deploying French nuclear assets across Europe. And the trigger still remains in Macron’s hands.

1:10
Now, in response to this, Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president, announced Macron’s termination, even announcing the date when Macron will be terminated. Can France, which has a total of 290 nuclear warheads, defend entire Europe against Russia, which has at least 1,600 deployed warheads and nearly 2,800 stockpiled warheads? Can France replace the US nuclear deterrence? Can France become Europe’s security provider in place of US? Does France want to be Europe’s key security provider and arms manufacturer? What is France’s game plan?

To discuss matters further, I’m being joined by Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, who is an author, historian and international affairs analyst, joining me from Brussels. Sir, always a pleasure speaking with you. Dr. Doctorow, France, is it the new backer of Ukraine and Europe?

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: 2:01
This is the latest policy initiative by President Macron. He has a new major initiative every two days. Now, I want to be fair about this. This particular statement that he’s made last night has an interesting basis in fact, whereas most of what he’s been saying for the last couple of weeks has only spun out of his imagination.

His idea of France taking a leading role in the peace initiative for Ukraine by making available its boots on the ground in Ukraine to provide a security guarantee to whatever peace is arrived at — that is spun out of thin air and was completely ignoring the reality of the world we live in, which is that the Russians will not accept any, any foreign troops in Ukraine, as has been explicitly stated by President Putin and by his minister of foreign affairs, Lavrov.

3:04
And this is quite incredible that he would ignore that reality. What we have today now is the latest initiative, and with the same intention for France to move to the head of the pool of European leaders and to be the spokesperson and commander-in-chief of European defenses. Mr. Macron is so active, hyperactive, because he has a minimal support rating in his country.

If he has more than 10% approval rating, it’s a lot. In domestic politics, he is very weak, has a very weak hand. He does not have a workable government, a workable control of parliament that would enable him to continue his planned program of reforms, government reforms. So in domestic politics, he is close to being out on the street. So how do you make up for this lack of support domestically?

4:12
Well, you go, you devote everything to international affairs where you have absolute control since foreign affairs, military policy are the prerogative of the top executives. That’s what he’s doing. Yes.

WION:
No, no, I wanted to just come into this now. He mentioned expanding French nuclear umbrella to the entirety of Europe. So when the French president says something like this, and when the entire arsenal consists of 290 nuclear warheads, and you’re comparing this to arguably the biggest nuclear force in the world, that is Russia. How far or what would this imply for Europe? How– 290 warheads, how do they get divided across Europe to stand in front of Russia?

Doctorow:
Well, I am not a military expert, but I follow military experts very closely, particularly those that the majority of your audience would not be following. By that I mean Russian military experts and Russian political commentators. And I can tell you, the Russians have been sniggering. The latest remarks are that Russia is not threatened in any way by this French …

WION:
As far as the French nuclear arms are concerned, you mentioned the Russians are perhaps snickering at this. So is it enough or what does France even envision or imagine, I would say, since you said it’s perhaps springing something out of imagination, what are they even thinking? Can they do without the US in even having any kind of discussions with Russia?

Doctorow; 6:03
Well, let’s put this in a context. I was among a number of commentators in the United States and elsewhere who expected on Tuesday night, the 4th, during his address to the joint session of Congress, Donald Trump would announce the United States withdrawal from NATO. Well, he didn’t do that. Actually, the type of speech that he delivered and context for it was not appropriate to the solemnity of such a decision. He was giving another of his famous electoral campaign speeches. But the idea that Trump will remove the United States from NATO is a certainty.

6:45
This is not something that may happen; it’s something that will happen. And the Europeans are bringing this down on themselves by their repeating collectively the disastrous mistake that Volodymyr Zelensky made in the Oval Office last Friday. That mistake is lèse-majesté. You do not insult, you do not challenge directly the opinions of the president of the United States before cameras, and expect to survive politically. Now, Europe has done that.

But no sooner did Zelensky leave the United States, [where he’s pushed or] thrown out of the Whitehouse, than he arrived in London, where he’s embraced warmly by Starmer, by others, 19 assembled leaders of Europe, who gave him their full support, whatever that means, and who stand ready to participate actively in the security arrangements surrounding any peace settlement with Russia, on the assumption that Russia is the aggressor and is a recidivist who will once again be the aggressor that has to be stopped by force.

WION: 8:10
Now Dr. Doctorow, as far as Starmer mentioning that you know they offer Ukraine their full support or Europe coming out and saying we stand with Zelensky; and Zelensky– it took all of one day or within 24 hours of US halting and pausing aid to Ukraine, and out came that statement from Zelensky saying we are ready to sign that minerals deal. Within hours of that, you also had a statement from the German Defense Ministry saying that they have run out of ammunition to send to Ukraine. And in the midst of all of this, you have the French president saying they are willing to become the key security providers and they all need to boost their military spending, most of the European countries, and the nuclear umbrella needs to be spread across Europe.

8:58
When you take all these statements together, with Russia clearly outlining that it is a red line for them to have any NATO troops in Ukraine, because of which this entire war had even started. That’s as per the Russian, you know, narrative. Do you feel any of this will come to fruition? Do they stand a chance in front of Russia or is this all a rhetoric at this point?

Doctorow:
I think that the people who are making these statements will be swept from power in the coming months. The net result of their present efforts to stand up directly to defy present-day United States will be the withdrawal of US participation in NATO, after which NATO is an absolutely hollow and useless instrument.

Therefore, by their actions today, which are– nominally the argument is that defending Ukraine means defending European security, the net result of what they are doing is a much more serious threat to European security, because it removes the Americans from the equation.

10:04
And that is something that their people, that their voters will find utterly unacceptable and will find a way to force the resignation of the people who collected in Mr. Starmer’s offices in London.

As to standing up to Russia, once it is clear that Europe has no proper defense– which it hasn’t, for the reasons that you explained, they simply don’t have the armaments, and without the United States, they have no overall capability to stand up to Russia– when that sinks in, then they or their successors in office will approach the Russians to do a general settlement and new security arrangements.

10:55
That is to say, I do believe that at the end of the day, common sense will prevail, because what we’re seeing now is nonsense, not common sense. And Mr. Macron is among the leaders in the nonsense alliance. Everything that he says, yes, France arguably is the best positioned of European countries to provide a nuclear umbrella. The UK also has nuclear arms, but they are almost exclusively, if not exclusively, on their Trident submarines, which may or may not actually be able to fire them. That’s a separate issue. But they would not be suitable for extension of missile coverage across Europe, which is what, if I understand you properly, Macron’s argument seems to include.

11:47
Nonetheless, the imbalance in forces, nuclear forces, is such that Europe, under a French umbrella, is going to get rained on. Moreover, it ignores entirely Russia’s strategic developments in nuclear and non-nuclear weapons of destruction. It has with its hypersonic missiles the ability to decapitate all of the participating countries in any alliance directed against itself. This makes utter foolishness of the pretentious statements by Mr. Macron.

WION: 12:31
Dr. Doctorow, one last question I want to take with you. As per what the French president said, that Russian aggression knows no borders, do you feel Russia has its eyes anywhere beyond Ukraine as well?

Doctorow:
It doesn’t even have its eyes on all of Ukraine. This is all utter Russophobic slander. And why does it exist? Because Europe needs some unifying theme. Europe is falling apart, for good reason. The European Union does not deserve to continue its [existence] in its present form, which is a dictatorship.

Ursula von der Leyen, seeing around her the completely cowardly leaders, so-called leaders, and parliamentarians coming from European countries has grabbed power and is using it in a way that is not foreseen in the European constitution. Therefore, Europe is falling apart. And the only way that Ursula and others like Macron and Starmer from outside the EU hope to keep Europe together is a unifying cry, “We have to save ourselves from Russia.” As I was saying, Russia has no interest in possessing the whole of Ukraine, not to mention moving west to Lisbon. It does not have the means and is not intending to expend its valuable resources, its funds and its arms to hold on to territory that is hostile to it.

14:08
The rest of Ukraine is hostile to Russia, and always will be. So Russia doesn’t want to move west to the Dnieper, let alone to move into the hostile Baltic states, which have no economic or demographic value to anybody, or to Poland, which is a wonderland of political, what can I call them, they live in a Disneyland. They are, the Poles are wonderful people, and have a magnificent culture, but their political elites are as they were since the 18th century, out of touch with reality. So these countries that are screaming about a Russian danger now picked up by Macron in his usual opportunistic manner, they are saying nonsense.

WION: 14:58
I hear your point. Dr. Doctorow, thank you so much for joining me here on “Game Plan”. It’s always a pleasure speaking with you. A lot of big statements coming out, but as far as the summit in Europe is concerned, we will get to know what next. They do plan to spend more on their defense establishment. We need to know what they have in mind if the US is out of the equation.

And Trump is mincing no words when he says that NATO is not really on his radar any more and apart from other organizations. And there is a very, very evident rift that you see between US and the European Union at this point. What this means for the entire equation, geopolitics, we need to discuss that further, perhaps in our next “Game Plan” episode we’ll speak again. Thank you so much.

15:38
That was Dr. Gilbert Doctorow joining us.