Transcript of NewsX ‘Big Debate’

NewsX: 0:05
Welcome back. You are watching NewsX. My name is Vineet Malhotra. Well, Ukraine and Russia have in fact agreed to a ceasefire and this is something which, not an actual ceasefire, but this is something that has been worked upon for a very, very long time. And in that sense, both the countries have also listened to the United States.

They have tried to make their stakeholders understand that these attacks need to be paused on the energy infrastructure. And this obviously happened after a call between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. This was after Trump held similar conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but [it] stopped short of a US proposal for a temporary truce. After a roughly hour-long call with Trump, both leaders said that it went well. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that, and I quote, “technical talks in Saudi Arabia, this weekend would seek to resolve what types of infrastructure would be protected under the agreement”. During their call, Trump suggested that Zelensky should consider giving the US ownership of Ukraine’s power plants to ensure their long-term security.

1:30
A ceasefire for energy targets would not only benefit Ukraine, which has struggled for years with Russia’s repeated attacks on its energy grid. It would also come as a relief to the Kremlin. Ukraine has conducted extensive strikes on oil and gas facilities deep into the Russian heartland, jeopardizing Moscow’s most crucial stream of state revenue.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have exchanged 372 soldiers in a prison swap brokered by the United Arab Emirates. A new shipment of western F-16 fighter jets has arrived in Ukraine also is what we are learning. And the Ukrainian president Zelensky stated that several F-16s had arrived but did not reveal the exact number of jets that were delivered.

We will talk about this with our guest joining us on the show is Mr. Prabhu Dayal, former diplomat. Also joining us on the show is Gilbert Doctorow, Russian affairs expert. Ruslan Bortnik, director of Ukrainian Institute of Politics also joins us on the program. And last but by no means the least Mr. Robinder Sachdev, foreign affairs expert with us on the program as well. Thank you gentlemen for being a part of this conversation.

Mr. Dayal, I will begin with you sir. So what do you make of this? You know in fact what the feeling so far is that this seems to be a good start, this seems to be the beginning of the end of the war, but both the sides have recklessly accused each other of not honoring any hint of ceasefire which was agreed upon in the past as well. How can the world be confident because obviously consequently the world has also suffered as a result of this war sir. How can the world be confident that this is not mere posturing?

Dayal: 3:16
Well, first of all thanks for having me in your show. As you rightly said it’s a good development because if we can move towards peace, then I think the whole world will heave a sigh of relief. And the government of India has been very supportive of all efforts made towards securing peace. And in fact, Prime Minister Modi has very clearly said it’s not the era of war.

Now, as regards the present status of the talks, let me mention that from what I have read in the media, the three parties, that is the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, have slightly different views about what the understanding entails. The White House has said that energy and infrastructure would be covered. That means they would not be attacked. The Kremlin has said that the agreement referred to only the infrastructure, the energy infrastructure. That is to say the rest of the infrastructure is not covered by the understanding.

4:28
And of course, Zelensky is insisting that not only does it cover the energy infrastructure but [things] like railways and ports to be protected. So there is presently a lack of clear understanding, but then there are technical talks which are supposed to be held in Saudi Arabia this weekend, and I hope that these talks would be a step forward in resolving this matter and working out what types of infrastructure would be protected under the agreement.

NewsX: 5:02
Mr. Bortnik, what are your impressions of this effort also that America seems to be making? More than Vladimir Putin or Volodymyr Zelensky, it’s Donald Trump who seems to be showing a lot of alacrity, a lot of aspirations when it comes to this peace between these two countries.

Bortnik:
Hello colleagues. Because United States want to be a leader in this moment in peacemaking in Ukraine. And of course, Donald Trump wants to look much better in contrary with the previous American administration, which spent a lot of money on Ukrainian-Russian war and hasn’t achieved any significant result for this mock. But I want to share some of my thoughts about this possible truce, because it’s not easy. For me, it looks like the all sides are trying to resolve one main problem, lack of trust between the sides. So this step-by-step truce, this model, which was proposed for the first time by the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, or the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, a few weeks ago, even before Ukrainian-United States negotiation in Jedda, this model, it’s an attempt to find this trust by small parts, through the small parts.

6:34
But also it will take a lot of time, because this step-by-step approach will take a lot of time to find the final solution, to find even the ceasefire in the end. And during this time, there are significant risks of a war in this negotiation process and worsening relations between the sides, especially between the United States and Russia. And this may be a goal of some powers in this process also.

NewsX: 7:07
Okay, all right. You’ve made a valid point. Let me also open Mr. Gilbert into this conversation. Mr. Gilbert, How are you looking at this initiative? It’s obviously a good sign, but nothing compares to the idea and the feeling of absolute peace between these two nations. Is that affordable? Is that possible in the next few weeks, months, maybe not years?

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
I would put it in the time horizon of months. There are a lot of technical issues at every stage of amelioration of the ceasefire until it becomes something that is broad and comprehensive and understandable to the public.

7:51
But I’d like to put this in the context. When Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spent two hours and 28 minutes several days ago on their telephone call, you can be certain that the specifics of the ceasefire, temporary, or otherwise, were only a tiny portion of the time they spent. I believe that most of the time they spent was on what the future American-Russian relations will look like in the context of solving the Ukrainian crisis. The Ukrainian crisis is a subset of the general security crisis in Europe and in the world at large.

Mr. Trump is often denounced as an isolationist. I believe that’s an entirely wrong reading of the man. He is denounced as a businessman who is only interested in transactions. That is also an artificial and wrong understanding of the man.

8:45
He and his team have a vision for reordering the world order based on something like Yalta 2. That’s to say, large powers, and India is one of them, India, Russia, the United States, China, as being the major occupants of seats at the governing board of the world. And the alliances that the United States relied upon to control large parts of the Earth will no longer have any relevance. This takes a lot of work, and it is in direct opposition to Europe. I see now a reconstruction of World War II between the Axis powers and the Allied powers.

The Allied powers, two of the Allied powers in World War II, were the United States and Russia. The Axis powers today are Germany, Britain, and France. That is to say, I believe that the nature of discussion between Trump and Putin was about how to counter the attempts at sabotage of the peace in Ukraine that are now being raised by Mr. Merz, by Macron, by Starmer and by von der Leyen in Europe.

NewsX: 10:00
Mr. Sachdev, what are your thoughts on what’s happening at this point in time? According to Mr. Zelensky, he does not trust Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin feels that regardless of what Mr. Zelensky is going to say, his ambitions and aspirations to be a part of NATO [are] also responsible for what we have seen in the last couple of years.

Sachdev: 10:25
Thank you so much. A pleasure to be with you and the distinguished panel. Probably in terms of, let’s pick one by one, let’s say. Let’s look at first the so-called 30-day ceasefire which is being talked about; and then there is a overall peace in the long term which is being talked about. I would think that even this ceasefire, the 30-day ceasefire does not seem, I mean it should happen I would think, it would happen, could happen. But it’s not going to be an easy path, even this 30-day ceasefire.

10:59
We’ve seen the conditions which Russia is putting even for this 30-day ceasefire: no weapons from the West or US or Europe to Ukraine, no intelligence sharing, no recruiting or mobilization of troops by Ukraine; and then the matter of even this 30-day ceasefire being monitored etc. So even this 30-day to my mind is a challenge, and then of course we’ll come to the longer-term issues like NATO and security guarantees for Ukraine and all.

But stepping back into the immediate I think as one of the colleagues I think Ruslan mentioned or others, I see this also as a piece by piece approach, not the peace that is absence of conflict, but a piece by piece, a bit by bit approach by Trump. First, and by the way, this I think approach in a way has been seeded by Zelensky himself. Last year in October when Zelensky came out with I think a five point victory plan which the West and NATO were asking him, okay, what would you do?

11:58
He laid out a five-point plan in which the fifth point or one of the points was that you know West and your American companies can come and invest in Ukrainian you know resources assets etc and thereby they can get the you know resources as well as it would ensure the security of that particular mine or plant etc., right. I think the seed started there. When Trump came to power, I think he seized upon it or he focused on it and found it a very practical approach for him himself.

So one, you have the mineral deal. Now we do not know the details of the mineral deal but in the mineral deal the idea is that you know American companies would invest and you know get the production running maybe and once they get the production running at least those mineral assets would be secured from attacks by Russia that’s one, right.

12:47
Now second, Trump is saying energy of course yes there was this there’s this huge gap. I mean, the White House says energy and infrastructure. Russia was saying only energy, whatever it be, even if it’s energy plants. Right. It would mean, okay, American, you know, investors or whatever, they come in and the energy plants of Ukraine are protected from attacks so this is going bit by bit to prevent attacks in certain segments, but this does not mean a ceasefire.

Okay or it would not mean a ceasefire to my point because a ceasefire is I mean the soldiers are fighting in the trenches okay maybe the next point in this would be no drone attacks by either party. Okay Russia and by the way it has to be reciprocal right, even if no energy attacks on energy infrastructure then I mean Ukraine is agreed, Russia has agreed. So maybe that’s agreed, right? No attacks on energy infrastructure, power plants and all, and the nuclear plants, MPPs, et cetera.

13:41
But on the other hand, the conflict is ongoing. I mean in the trenches, in the grounds, I mean tanks are rolling, armored columns are rolling, individual soldiers are backing and forthing etc. So even this 30-day conflict cessation or a pause, definitely looks very complicated to me. But yes, what would happen, what could happen, Putin will push back to the point that he can still retain the goodwill of Trump and not irritate Trump, and not hurt the ego of Trump.

So Putin will bit by bit, step by step, yes, give some concessions. Like in this first Putin-Trump call, you know, we do not know the exact details. It was a two-hour call. I mean, we only know the, you know, bits and bytes which came out through the official releases. They must have discussed n number of things and here, yes, I would understand what Mr. Doctorow, Gilbert is saying, that the bigger game that Russia is playing Russia wants to subsume lower the gravity and the context of the Ukraine conflict and is positioning it as, itself as a repair or back to tracks of America-Russia relations

15:03
So therefore if you see amongst the first breakthroughs in Saudi Arabia and all was that okay both countries will open up their missions in each other countries’ embassies right.

So Russia is looking at that, and then yes of course Ukraine. I mean Russia is trying to minimize the “importance” quote unquote if you may say of the Ukraine conflict in the global theater or in the global eye.

NewsX:
OK. All right, let’s see if you know Mr. Prabhu Dayal also feels this way. Mr. Dayal, do you think this is you know a very curated outlook by Russia that they do not want Ukraine to be taken seriously? They are trivializing a lot of aspects. It is a good pointer that Mr. Sachdev has brought out.

Dayal: 15:44
Well, Mr. Sachdev is right. You see, when these two countries, Russia and Ukraine, have been warring it out for so long, bridging the gaps in their positions is a very uphill task. Full credit to President Trump that he is trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war as well as the Israel-Hamas war, but both these are proving more challenging than perhaps he had identified at the beginning.

Now coming back to the Russia-Ukraine issue and the talks that were held between President Trump and Zelensky on one side and President Trump and President Putin on the other side. You know, Putin made it clear to Trump that there must be a cessation of foreign military aid and intelligence sharing as part of any deal. But according to what the White House press secretary Karoline Leaviit said afterwards, the US intelligence sharing in defense of, in terms of defense for Ukraine would continue.

17:02
So while the Russians are saying that there would be a cessation of military aid and intelligence sharing, the Americans are saying that the intelligence sharing would continue. So there are various issues on which there are still big gaps. Both I and Mr. Robindra Sachdev mentioned that there is this very big gap between what the three sides are saying regarding infrastructure. And as we both pointed out what the White House is saying that energy and infrastructure would be covered. Kremlin is saying that the agreement referred more narrowly to energy infrastructure, not energy and infrastructure.

17:54
And Zelensky is of course widening the whole idea and saying that not just energy infrastructure, but railways and ports would also be protected. So there are big gaps, but as I said in my first intervention, hopefully the talks which will be held and in which the three sides will be taking part. I don’t know whether all three will sit together at the table or whether the Americans will be talking separately with the Russians and the Ukrainians, but nonetheless I expect some forward movement in these talks which will be held this weekend in Saudi Arabia.

NewsX: 18:28
Mr. Bortnik, are you positive about these talks converting into a affirmative and positive systematic, you know, stop or rather slowing down of this war?

Bortnik: 18:44
You know, colleagues, I still have a lot of doubts about the future or the ending of the war in Ukraine, because we, now we are far away even from this full ceasefire. And moreover, even the ceasefire, it’s not enough to stop the war, because Ukraine and Russia had a ceasefire between 2014 and 2022, few ceasefires even. And it hasn’t avoided us to the full-scale war game. So it’s not enough even to make ceasefire, all fragments ceasefire. We need to find a solution about the new geopolitical balance, the geoconomical balance around Ukraine.

In other case, the war will be again, will be back again in Ukraine. In some times after that, in the end of the presidential term of Trump or in the beginning of the potential company in Russia. But it will be a question of maximum few years and war will happen again. We need to rebuild and restore the geopolitical and geoeconomical balance in Ukraine if we’re willing to achieve the stable long-term peace.

20:06
Talking about Jedda, I’m almost sure that Ukraine and Russia will accept that partial agreement on the ceasefire or immunity toward the energy infrastructure because all the sides, Ukraine, Russia, United States are willing to continue this diplomatic play, this diplomatic game. It’s very useful. It looks very nice from the public opinion inside all the countries. But we are still far away from the real peace.

NewsX: 20:46
Okay, we are almost out of time. I am going to ask Gilbert to give us concluding thoughts, and then we will wrap up. Gilbert.

Doctorow:
I agree substantially with what the previous speaker just said. I would like to emphasize that the ceasefire is not an objective by itself. The ceasefire is a part of a trust-building exercise for the purpose of the final result, which is a lasting, durable piece that all sides agree to. I think that is within reach.

That is not necessarily going to happen, but it is at this moment within reach. And I think that some of the talks, which are behind closed doors, as they well should be, are presently about the contours of the final settlement, which are being discussed in parallel with the specifics, the technicalities of the ceasefire. That is all to the good. We can only wish this venture well because it is very important for world peace, and of course for the lives of all the people on the ground in the region.

NewsX:
All right. I appreciate everybody who joined us. Thank you so much for these important perspectives.

21:55
We’ll take a short break; we’ll be right back.