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NewsX: 0:00
We now move on once again and stay in the region. Tensions are once again escalating in the Russia-Ukraine border. Ukraine says its forces are still engaged in combat inside Russia’s Kursk region, pushing back against claims from Moscow that the incursion has been repelled. The governor of the Kursk said that Ukrainian drones targeted civilians near the border, killing three and injuring seven others. Ukrainian drones also targeted Moscow for the second night in a row.
Russian air defences said that they intercepted nearly 19 drones approaching the capital from multiple directions. All four of Moscow’s airports were temporarily shut down during the strikes, with operations resuming only after the threat passed. Russia attacked Kharkiv after Ukrainian drones caused the temporary closure of Moscow’s airports. Four people are said to have been injured in this strike. Russia also struck Ukrainian cities of Odessa and of Sumy, which killed four people in total.
1:06
The Russian military also said that it shot down more than 105 drones across the country. Meanwhile, Ukraine reportedly attacked a power substation in Russia’s Kursk region, knocking out electricity in a town and injuring two teenagers. These moves come just ahead of a planned Russian ceasefire to mark the anniversary of the Russian Victory Day. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump, responding to Vladimir Putin’s ceasefire declaration, said that while it doesn’t sound like much, it’s a lot compared to previous efforts. Additionally, Trump remarked that Moscow and Kiev wanted to settle the war and that Putin was more inclined towards peace after recent fall in oil prices. Let’s listen in to Trump’s comments.
Trump: 1:57
Putin just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a lot if you knew where we started.
I think Russia with the price of oil right now, oil’s gone down, I think we’re in a good position to settle. They want to settle. Ukraine wants to settle.
NewsX:
We are now joined by Gilbert Doctorow, Russian affairs expert located in Brussels, Belgium, to discuss this in further detail. Gilbert, thank you very much for joining us. I want to get your immediate response and hope and see what you think of the proposed ceasefire by Vladimir Putin, obviously to celebrate Russia’s anniversary of their Victory Day. Do you think that It will go a bit better than the one that occurred at Easter, where there was violations on both sides of the spectrum and on that declared ceasefire. How do you think this one is going to go?
Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: 2:58
Well, it may go in the same manner as the preceding’s one-day ceasefire. There certainly will be violations. But I think we have to put this in the perspective of the overall situation. The overall situation is: the Russians do not anticipate that the Ukrainians will honor the ceasefire. This was a unilateral ceasefire. There were no conditions made on Ukrainian participation. The Russians have prepared for the Ukrainians not to expect it at all, in which case they have prepared to respond to any egregious violations which threaten their security.
At the same time, they’re also talking about proactive strikes against areas that they believe have caches of drones and other attack weapons which they might be using for the period of the Russian-ordered ceasefire. That is to say the Russians hope to wipe out drones that the Ukrainians have prepared to use during the ceasefire. The biggest issue, though, is whether Ukrainians will carry out the threats that they have been making for the last week or more, that they would like to interrupt the parade in Moscow or in some other Russian cities by firing drones or missiles at these places.
4:25
If that were to happen, then the war would escalate in a completely different nature from what we have seen for the last three years. The Russians are prepared to use devastating force against Kiev, including remarks by military leaders that they have a squadron of their Oreshnik hypersonic missiles ready to hit Kiev and, I say, destroy Kiev, if the Ukrainians are mad enough, are crazy enough to try to interrupt the parade in Moscow, which will have 25 or more foreign guests on the reviewing stand.
But just keep in mind that the Ukrainians are under great pressure. The Trump administration is pressing them hard to accept concessions of territory for a settlement with the Russians. The regime in Kiev is unable to do that, as Mr. Zelensky can do that only at the risk of his own life, because he is threatened by the neo-Nazi gangs who have been in control of Kiev since the change in government in 2014. So you have a situation of real panic among leaders in Kiev. They cannot agree to the peace terms that Mr. Trump is proposing, and yet they cannot publicly denounce them. So what they can do is try to attack Russia in a way that will be deeply embarrassing to Mr. Putin’s government, as I said, attacking the parade in Moscow.
NewsX: 6:04
I just want to get your outlook on some of the developments that have been going on on the battlefield. Obviously you’ve mentioned briefly about the drone strikes that attacked the Russian capital today, which included the temporary closure of all four major airports in the Russian capital. There’s also a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, that region that has been so hotly contested during this conflict, where Ukrainian forces have initiated a new offensive in the region. Reportedly, some reports saying that they’re capturing up to 500 square miles and displacing 130, 000 residents. Can I get your views on those battlefield developments, Gilbert?
Doctorow: 6:55
These are battlefield developments, public-relations developments. The practical value of these repeated incursions into either Belgorod or Kursk border regions of Russia is to get the attention of news agencies like your own and to remind the world that the Ukrainian forces are still active and haven’t been completely demolished by the Russian army. The reality is that this is a partly drone war now, and all the news that you have broadcast is about the drone war. At the same time, it remains a war of attrition and an artillery war in which the Russians continue to make advances of several hundred meters and several kilometers on various parts of the Donbas front every day.
7:39
They have not taken critically important logistics hubs, which have been under attack for months in the Donbas by the Russians. They haven’t succeeded yet, but they’re very cautious, because they try to avoid casualties. The attacking side always has greater casualties than the defending side, and the Russians are going slowly and carefully in their Donbass movements. As regards the border regions that you have mentioned, this is for publicity reasons. You are doing exactly what they expect the world global press to do, calling attention to their remaining attacks.
8:18
And let’s make it clear: the Russians have declared officially that Kursk region is freed of the Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians suffered 75,000 or 76,000 casualties, meaning both deaths and their soldiers who were removed from from the army because they are maimed and and are incapable of continuing soldierly life. This is the fact. The public relations side of it is to get the attention of the world and to hope to get more aid. On the ground, the Ukrainians are only losers.
NewsX: 8:57
Gilbert Doctorow, thank you very much for joining us. We now move on to the Indo-Pacif–
Gilbert Doctorow 