Transcript of WION interview, 26 May

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-5KO68FMFE

WION 0:00
US President Donald Trump has lambasted his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, describing him as “absolutely crazy” after Moscow launched its largest air attack of the war on Ukraine, killing at least 13 people. The comments came as Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia had launched a record number of drones against Ukraine overnight on Sunday. The Russian attack was the largest of the war in terms of weapons fired, although other strikes have killed more people. So what happened to the Bonhomie? And does that mean the ongoing talks are in limbo?

Dr. Gilbert Doctorow is an international affairs analyst. He’s also an author and a historian. He is now joining us live from [Brussels]. Dr. Gilbert, thank you very much for your time. What do you make of Trump’s fury over Putin? They just spoke days ago, and it seemed as if it was smooth sailing for them.

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: 0:53
Well, he had to respond to the outrage that European leaders have expressed and that the mass, the mainstream media have expressed over the sharp increase in Russian strikes on Kiev and other major cities. Though we knew in advance that that would happen, since the Russians had pointed out that 1,000 drones and other objects had been fired at Russia by Ukraine in the preceding week, including many focused on Moscow. So this was anticipated, but nonetheless it brought outrage. And Donald Trump had to show that he is listening to what his critics are saying. But is he really listening? That is the question for discussion.

WION: 1:40
Doctor, Moscow has intensified its warfare by using drones and even missiles. What’s the message that Putin is trying to pass to his adversaries in the West?

Doctorow:
That Russia has gained, after a lot of work to increase its technology and production, that Russia has now mastered drone warfare, which really is decisive or defining the stage of warfare today in the Russia-Ukraine war. It was originally strictly an artillery duel. This was, most of the three years were an artillery duel, but Russia enjoyed a very large advantage in supplies, 10 to 1 in armaments advantage over Ukraine. But in recent, in the last six months, eight months, the Ukrainians showed that they had great capabilities in drones, and the drones could be effective in preventing a mass attack on the front line, because soldiers were obliged to break up into small units to avoid carnage from attack drones. The Russians have now more than mastered drones, and this is demonstrated by the latest attacks.

2:59
The drones are also used as a way of diverting the attention of the air defence from the missiles that are incoming and which do the real damage.

WION: 3:12
President Putin recently visited the Kursk oblast and some critics were saying that was a kind of provocation. What do you make of Putin’s visit to Kursk?

Doctorow:
The single most remarkable thing about the visit is that he got there. He was subjected to massive drone attack by the Ukrainians. Somehow they had been made aware of his plans to visit Korsk. So he got there. That was a big achievement. What he did on the ground was also very important. He met with officials, he met with the victims of the Ukrainian occupation of this territory.

3:55
He spoke with the people who are rebuilding, the volunteers who are facilitating the reestablishment of people whose homes were destroyed by the Ukrainian occupiers of this basically Russian territory, part of the Russian Federation. And so it was to build confidence, both locally and nationally, that he made that visit.

WION:
Is President Volodymyr Zelensky’s shuttle diplomacy working, do you think?

Doctorow:
Well, he doesn’t stop traveling, that’s for sure. What comes out of it is public relations, and he is a public relations man. It’s regrettable for the life of Ukrainian soldiers that their military command is directed by a public relations man, and that they are viewed as fodder for the demonstration of Ukrainian strength and resilience to get more assistance from the West. So it has been. But he is visiting everywhere to find new support, financial and material, for the war, which he will really need to have as the United States withdraws from the conflict.

WION:
Sanction threats towards Russia have returned. President Putin seems unperturbed, even after the EU said it will push forward with sanctions. Trump is also considering sanctions as another option. But how far will these threats go if Putin continues to give them a deaf ear?

Doctorow:
Well, Putin is holding out that possibility of a [deaf]. So the more immediate military task that he discussed when he was in Kursk is to ensure a buffer zone that protects Russian civilian settlements as in Kursk or Belgorod, the neighboring frontier or border provinces of Russia, from attacks by Ukrainian short-range missiles and drones. That is where the emphasis is going, not on seizing new territory, however desirable it is for Russian patriots to take Odessa.

WION: 6:12
What about the sanctions? Because they are increasing by the day, and President Trump says that he may consider advancing the sanctions on Russia.

Doctorow:
This is all rhetoric. The fact of the matter is that Russia is sanction proof. Three years of sanctions have made it the country with the largest number of sanctions ever imposed on any state in history. They have survived quite well, and are doing very nicely, thank you. So this is just rhetoric addressed by European leaders in particular and by opponents of Trump in the States hoping to pressure him to apply greater sanctions; it is rhetoric.

The, frankly, the West has no leverage over Russia. That is a fact that is coming out, and I want to make the point that the most important development in the past week or two has been that mainstream media have caught up with alternative media in describing accurately the dire situation of Ukraine, militarily, financially, and otherwise.

WION: 7:19
Let’s now talk about the negotiations or the talks. Russia’s demands were Ukraine’s recognition of Russian-occupied Crimea, independence for separatist-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk, and demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba stated that while his country was ready for talks to resume, Russia’s demands had not changed, critics call those demands unfathomable.

Doctorow:
You are exactly right. The claims or the expectations of the warring parties are irreconcilable. And that is why discussion of a peace arrived at in the current negotiations is not realistic. It has served political purposes, particularly in the States, where Donald Trump is the one who first called for peace talks.

But the reality is that they will fail in their present composition, because the Ukrainian leadership is unwilling to face the reality on the ground that even its friends like “Financial Times” are openly acknowledging. So I do not believe there will be a military victory. In that respect, I’m in agreement with JD Vance and others in the administration of Donald Trump. But there will be a political collapse.

8:48
And we’ve seen that coming in the growing fissures within leadership in Ukraine, most recently by the statements by the Ukrainian ambassador to England, Zaluzhin, admitting the dire situation the country is in.

WION:
Doctor, finally, let’s talk about this issue that has been going on for a long time. A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive. What will it take for both sides to calm down, meet, talk, agree and end the conflict? What’s your message to both Putin and Zelensky?

Doctorow:
Well, I don’t believe that Mr. Zelensky will be around to conclude the peace. So my commenting on him is not really relevant. Putin most likely will be around. And I think this will take place before the end of the year, not because of some massive Russian advance on the front that breaks the Ukrainian line. I don’t believe that they will collapse.

But I think they will capitulate because of a political breakdown. That is to say the leaders, the political leaders within Ukraine will move away from Zelensky towards another person who is willing to accept reality. That person might very well be Mr. Zaluzhny, judging by what he said last week.

He was put forward some time ago as America’s preferred replacement for Zelensky. So in that event, a political collapse will bring the parties to the table. The terms will be rather similar to what Mr. Putin has demanded at the current negotiations.

WION: 10:33
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow is an international affairs analyst. He’s also an author and a historian. We’ll have to leave it there. Thank you very much for giving us time and for talking to me on World Is One today.

Doctorow:
Thanks for the invitation.

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Published by gilbertdoctorow

Gilbert Doctorow's latest book, "War Diaries. The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022-2023" is a unique contribution to literature on the war thanks to the author's reports on the Russian home front written during his periodic visits to St Petersburg at a time when Russia no longer issued visas and nearly all Western journalists had left the country. Doctorow's two-volume "Memoirs of a Russianist" published in 2020 also constitutes a category of its own, consisting largely of diary entries rather than reminiscences written decades later.. Volume 2 focuses on the community of 50,000 expatriate managers working and living in Moscow during the 1990s, about which none of his peers has yet to write. Gilbert Doctorow is a professional Russia watcher and actor in Russian affairs going back to 1965. He is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. From 1998-2002, Doctorow served as the Chairman of the Russian Booker Literary Prize in Moscow. During the 2010-2011 academic year, he was a Visiting scholar of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University. Mr. Doctorow is a long-time resident of Brussels.

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