Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern on ‘Judging Freedom,’ 6 June 2025

Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern on ‘Judging Freedom,’ 6 June 2025

It is not my custom to post links to the video interviews of peers, but I will make an exception for yesterday evening’s ‘Judging Freedom’ Intel Roundup with ex-CIA analysts Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern. The show raises many more questions than it answers and provides stimulating food for thought to fill free moments this weekend. This is so because in what is a rare instance on these programs the two interviewees are in disagreement about most every question tossed to them by Judge Napolitano. That leaves a lot of room for the audience to work the angles and try to come to an independent determination.

See  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrKNU9PUesk

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I use the opportunity to put into the mix some of my own conclusions below relative to the questions posed by Napolitano. But first I note that, in general, I am cautious about expressing my differences with any of my peers. One reason is that some readers think that the Opposition to U.S. foreign policy should be totally aligned, should express solidarity and not show fault lines.  I strongly disagree, saying that solidarity behind wrong-headed analyses demonstrates weakness, not strength. But more importantly because when you spend time looking laterally at what others are doing and saying, you are not looking forward and being constructive.  I stopped reading the political scientists published by Foreign Affairs magazine a decade ago when I understood that critiquing their Neocon-inspired essays did not spread light, only rancor. 

With that waiver behind me, I proceed below to share some thoughts on the ‘Judging Freedom’ edition of Intel Roundup yesterday.

The dispute between Larry and Ray over whose sources in and out of Russia are more reliable in reading Russian thinking was a draw.

I agree with Larry Johnson that the airbase attack was not a pinprick and that Putin did not mention it in his address because it is all too embarrassing.  And yes, the Russian response is still coming, as Ray says.

But there are other aspects of all this that were not discussed.  The terror attacks on the trains were a much bigger issue than Larry Johnson thinks.  His recalling the Crocus massacre a year ago is wrong. Yes, 145 deaths then trump the 7 deaths in the Bryansk train wreck last weekend.   But how many Crocus entertainment centers are there in Russia?  Answer:  one, two, a half dozen perhaps.  How many railway tracks and bridges are there to blow up? The answer is thousands and thousands.  The Russian news a day ago showed the latest sabotage of various rail lines for the sake of derailment.   Russians travel the trains in hundreds of thousands or millions every day and there are a lot of very worried Russians now when they buy train tickets for their summer vacation.

The missile and drone attacks on Kiev and on every major city across Ukraine in the past couple of days IS NOT an appropriate Russian response to any of this.  It is only more of the same targeting arms production research centers and production facilities.  We see how effective they are: it is just sweeping back the tide.

My own guesstimate is that Putin will continue to go slowly, slowly and the level of anger in the broad Russian population will mount.

I never was in accord with Paul Craig Roberts that Vladimir Putin’s reasonable, sage and humane approach to the war with Ukraine is leading to ever more escalation and taking us precisely where Putin does not want to go, namely to a global nuclear war. I never was in agreement with Sergei Karaganov that Russia must stage a devastating strike in Western Europe to puncture the bubble of condescension and scorn for Russia’s supposed weakness and bring the European leaders to their senses.

However, I am becoming much more sympathetic to both of these positions day by day. We have already lost prospects for renewed arms negotiations talks thanks to the airbase attacks.

You cannot watch every kilometer of rail track or rail bridges across Russia to ensure the security of Russian citizens. The only solution, now that Putin has identified the Kiev regime as a terrorist state, is to destroy the decision-making centers, starting with Mr. Budanov and his whole team of terror planners and operatives in downtown Kiev. One Oreshnik hypersonic missile can do that.  Will Mr. Putin do what has to be done, or not?

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

5 thoughts on “Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern on ‘Judging Freedom,’ 6 June 2025

  1. I stopped my subscription to Foreign Affairs magazine some time ago, according to Russian analysis the attack on the air arm of the Russian nuclear triad was a huge publicity victory for NATO and a huge embarrassment for Russia, but these planes that were attacked are obsolete and totally useless for a counter or first nuclear strike for that matter.

    NATO attacking an oil terminal instead would have been far more harmful to the Russian war effort.

    It could have been a disaster for Russia if the Kerch bridge had collapsed in conjunction with the other attacks.

    hopefully what does not kill you makes stronger.

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  2. Thanks again for your analysis and opinion, which I much value.

    Coming from you – I regard seriously your sense of major escalation building.

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  3. Are you acquainted with the acronym FAFO? $%@# Around And Find Out. Ukraine with or without help has done so on a strategic level. I would expect a strategic response; I would also conjecture that Mr. Putin explained this to Mr. Trump. I expect the hazelnuts to rain down, in a bumper crop.

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  4. I cannot fully agree to Mr. Doctorov’s point that the Ukrainians were “fully capable” to carry out the attack on the strategic bomber airfields alone. Certainly they could do the final attack, like deploying the trucks, starting the drones etc. without any external assistance, and certainly they are better in this business than any western military or secret service.

    But satellite reconnaissance short before the attack seems indispensible to me. The positions of the planes change, some are covered with tyres to confuse automatic recog, sometimes there are plane shapes painted on the ground. If drones have to find out where to aim in the first place they are doomed to fail.

    Of course such recon does not need to be minutes fresh, but also not months old. For deniability, western services may claim not to have been aware of the special reason of the recon. Yet this sounds dubious for the Irkutsk region from where never an attack on Ukraine started.

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    1. What you are saying may be of generic value for Russian fighter jets parked at any of the many air bases in the country. But your comments are totally irrelevant in the given case, which was strategic bombers which must be out in the open, not in underground silos and must be identifiable from space.
      Form space!! So they sure as hell were identifiable to drones hled 10 or 15 km away, especially if they were equipped, as these were, with target identification software.

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