Transcription of NewsX interview, 16 June

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnVZJl60l7c

NewsX: 0:00
–expertise and sharing your insight with us. We had Ali Abushbakh join us as Middle East researcher. Now we move on to our next story. Russia and Ukraine have declared that a fifth exchange of dead bodies has taken place. Kyiv has confirmed that the bodies of 1,245 Ukrainian servicemen have been returned from Russia as part of a continuing effort under the Istanbul agreements.

These exchanges come after months of negotiations between both sides. According to Ukraine’s coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war, the repatriated remains include soldiers who died in intense combat zones, including Bakhmut and Mariupol.

Meanwhile, Russian presidential aide and chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky told Russian media that Moscow is prepared to transfer an additional 2,239 bodies to Ukraine. He also confirmed that Ukraine has so far handed over 78 bodies of Russian servicemen to Moscow. Medinsky said that since the start of these agreements, Russia has returned a total of 6060 bodies of Ukrainian fallen soldiers.

1:24
Now we are joined by our guest, Gilbert Doctorow. He’s a Russian affairs expert, joining us live from Brussels. Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to NewsX World. What does this fifth round of body, fallen body exchanges signal about the current state of dialogue between Moscow and Kiev despite active conflict?

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
Well, it indicates that at the technical level, the two sides remain in contact. And of course it is extremely good news that there can be a closure to the suffering of the families of these soldiers. They can properly bury their loved ones. And something resembling human behavior returns to that land. Nonetheless, none of this has any implication for the chances of a ceasefire, let alone for the chances of a definitive peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The parties remain very far separated by their ambitions in what they will get from the peace. That is to say, each side is expecting and demanding the capitulation effectively, the capitulation of the other side. And under those conditions, it is not foreseeable that negotiations can result in any agreements.

NewsX: 2:57
And now you will stay with us as we have breaking news. Moscow confirms that newly planned Russia-US consultations have been canceled at Washington’s initiative. Russia’s foreign ministry says it hopes the current diplomatic pause with the United States won’t last long.

Now we come back to our guest discussion, Gilbert Doctorow. He’s a Russian affairs expert joining us live from Brussels. What is your reaction about the breaking news that we just took, that the consultations have been canceled at Washington’s initiative?

Doctorow: 3:41
Well, I don’t think it makes a great deal of difference. Washington’s mind right now is fully focused on the Middle East and on the ongoing conflict, armed conflict, between Iran and Israel. The United States is deeply concerned that its bases in the Middle East will be attacked by the Iranians. And so I don’t think they have too much brain power to spare to consider the furtherance of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which in any case have not yet produced any positive results.

NewsX: 4:25
And building on that, how does the asymmetry in the number of bodies returned– being 6,060 Ukrainian versus 78 Russian soldiers only– reflect the intensity or geography of the frontline losses, and is this being used by Russia as soft power here?

Doctorow: 4:49
I don’t think that the discrepancy in numbers of these corpses fully reflects the discrepancy in the killed or seriously maimed ratio of those in the Ukrainian armed forces versus the Russians. There are other elements here as well. It’s been a safe assumption among most experts that the Russians have enjoyed a seven to ten advantage over the Ukrainians, meaning that seven Ukrainians or ten Ukrainians have been killed or seriously wounded in the combat in Donbass versus one Russian. Now, when you speak about 70 soldiers, Russian corpses being exchanged for so far 6,000 and maybe 7,000 Ukrainian corpses, that, of course, is unrepresentative of the numbers I just gave.

But I think it’s accounted for by something else. The Ukrainians have notoriously left their fallen and dead on the battlefield and have run for their lives when they were subjected to a Russian attack. And I think the Russians have been much more careful about recovering the bodies of their fallen in the military conflict. That is probably a bigger factor than anything else.

NewsX: 6:16
Thank you very much, Dr. Gilbert Doctorow. He’s a Rus–

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Published by gilbertdoctorow

Gilbert Doctorow's latest book, "War Diaries. The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022-2023" is a unique contribution to literature on the war thanks to the author's reports on the Russian home front written during his periodic visits to St Petersburg at a time when Russia no longer issued visas and nearly all Western journalists had left the country. Doctorow's two-volume "Memoirs of a Russianist" published in 2020 also constitutes a category of its own, consisting largely of diary entries rather than reminiscences written decades later.. Volume 2 focuses on the community of 50,000 expatriate managers working and living in Moscow during the 1990s, about which none of his peers has yet to write. Gilbert Doctorow is a professional Russia watcher and actor in Russian affairs going back to 1965. He is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. From 1998-2002, Doctorow served as the Chairman of the Russian Booker Literary Prize in Moscow. During the 2010-2011 academic year, he was a Visiting scholar of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University. Mr. Doctorow is a long-time resident of Brussels.

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3 thoughts on “Transcription of NewsX interview, 16 June”

  1. Dr.G,
    Absence makes the heart grow fonder, –have been waiting patiently for your return.
    As previously noted, Trump had to sacrifice the people of Gaza to keep the neo-cons off his back so he could end the war in Ukraine.
    Now it appears that he has added the people of Iran to his list of sacrificial lambs.
    Here’s hoping the wars and rumors of wars don’t go nuclear.

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      1. I found your newsletter on substack and subscribed
        but not having a smart phone (I’m 78yo with an old flip-phone)
        I can’t activate the Substack QR code to unlock your free posts.
        Will continue to follow your thoughtful essays on WordPress platform.
        Much obliged for your insights on complex issues via Judging Freedom.

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