Transcript of WION ‘Game Plan,’ 3 July

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOBVJPJr2Lo

WION: 0:01
Trump and Zelenskyy, they met last week. They seemed to have a good meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit. And then what happens? The US president goes back home, and within days you hear that the US has halted key weapons supplies to Ukraine, a move that has shocked Kiev, to say the least, and left Ukraine in dire need as the Russian forces continue their advance into Ukraine. The White House said that this decision follows a routine capability review of its military needs.

Now, if it’s a routine review, then why wasn’t it accounted for before, or informed to Kiev in advance? If it’s a routine review, then why is there no specific timeline for the resumption of military aid to Ukraine? A lot of questions here. I’m Shivan Chanana and to discuss this further with me on “Game Plan” is Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, international affairs analyst, author and historian. Doctor, always a pleasure speaking with you. The last time US halted military aid to Ukraine was after that Trump-Zelensky Oval Office fallout. This time there was no fallout. There was a cordial meeting, and yet the same has happened. What happened suddenly?

Doctorow: 1:04
It’s truly difficult to give definitive answers to this very legitimate question you’re posing, because so much is going on that is behind closed doors. Perhaps we will know in 50 years, but I think we will not be around in 50 years. At least I won’t. And we have to make a decision today on the conduct of the war, the conduct of foreign policy by Donald Trump.

The point that has to be made first is that Trump is operating in a hostile political environment. Hostile domestically, Congress is not with him on a rapprochement with Russia. Congress is hostile to Russia. Europe wants the war to continue. For Europe, the Ukrainian war presents Russia as the bogeyman, as the hostile enemy, and justifies further funding of NATO and justifies the very existence of the European Union, which has become a war project instead of a peace project under von der Leyen.

2:07
Now, specifically, what do I have in mind? Let us recall that when Biden pushed through his massive aid, military aid, to Kiev, that would be in the period following his departure from office, there were remarks that this would be Trump-proof. But we didn’t know exactly what that meant, and we don’t know today exactly what it meant. But there’s reason to believe that this worked against Trump’s initial wish to stop arms deliveries from the day after he took office.

2:45
We will remember that, you mentioned the halt that was recent. There was a halt from the first days that he came into office. And then it was reversed, and he continued supplies. And many of my peers in what we call the independent media or alternative media in the United States and in Europe have been saying, “Ah, Trump, how can Trump present himself as a peacemaker when he’s continuing to supply arms to Ukraine?” I would maintain here, for the sake of argument, that he was continuing the arms deliveries because his legal team could not find a way to get around the obstacles that were presented in the Biden orders.

3:29
They finally did that, and now we’ve seen the result. The timing is a separate issue, which, of course, you are interested in, I will respond to “Why now?” But it took some time for the Trump legal team to work its way through the American legislation and find means to stop the supply. And do note, they have not stopped it categorically. They stopped it temporarily. That is part of the ruse, that is part of the trick that the Trump team is using now to frustrate the restrictions on its options that were put in the Biden law.

WION: 4:10
Doctor, Now as for reports these paused shipments, they include items which are vital to Ukraine’s air defense and frontline operations, both of which are key arteries to their defenses against Russian aggression at this point. Is this arm-twisting Kiev into peace talks? And as you mentioned and briefly, you know, why is it happening as of now? And there is no date to when this will resume, so is it an open-ended military halt?

Doctorow: 4:42
It’s an open-ended military halt which is not called that. It’s called a “suspension”. And that certainly is a legal trick that is relevant in relations with Congress and the courts in the United States. We have to pay attention to that. Now, you mentioned defensive. But this halt is on both defensive and offensive weapons. The defensive side are the interceptors, Patriots, and other equipment which the United States has provided to Ukraine, but much of which it withdrew at the outset of the 12-day Israeli-Iran war to take to the Middle East to safeguard American bases in the Gulf states.

5:28
So not only is the United States not supplying further Patriots as requested, or should we say demanded by Zelensky in his last meeting with Trump here in The Hague, but it has reduced what little they had before the Iran-Israeli war. That’s the defensive side. On the offensive side, they have cut back on deliveries of precision missiles. This we can assume takes in the various short- to medium-range missiles which the United States supplied earlier. And we may assume it has cut back on artillery shells, which are of vital importance to Ukrainians on the front lines.

6:20
So this is very important. And to whom is this a signal? Well, yes, of course to Kiev, but I’d say also a signal to the European Union and NATO that the United States is withdrawing from this war.

WION:
That’s a very strong signal if that’s exactly how the European Union also perceives it, it is going to be a message with a thousand words. At this point also, Doctor … Russia has declared that they have taken over Luhansk. Luhansk has fallen to the Russian government at this point. That’s what they’re claiming. And in the midst of this, to halt military aid to Ukraine, is it just really bad timing for Ukraine or strategic timing for the U.S.? And after, Luhansk, is Sumy next?

Doctorow:
Well, let’s take a look at the Luhansk story, Luhansk, Lugansk, which is the Ukrainian or Russian pronunciation of these oblasts. There are two oblasts that constitute the core of Russia’s move into what was once Ukraine. This is Donbas. There is Donetsk and Lugansk. From the very beginning, Russia’s occupation or possession of Lugansk was relatively high.

Seventy-five, 80 percent, perhaps, was held by Russian forces or Russian-friendly forces, because after all It was the local militias that held the territory, not the Russian army, when this war started. And in Donetsk it was less than 50 percent. Maybe 40 percent was held by Russia-friendly forces. The reasons are clear. There was very heavy fortification, building defensive concrete bunkers from which the Ukrainians could send their artillery shells or missiles into Donetsk.

8:15
That was very difficult to overcome. And even after two and a half years of war, it was still marginal, with a town that settlements 10, 15 kilometers away from Donetsk city, which is the capital of the province or region of the same name, were held by Ukrainians from which they were daily firing artillery shells into residential neighborhoods. Now, in Lugansk, the advance was slow, from a very high level to begin with. And this conquest of all of it is three percent. Let’s be clear about that. It was the final three percent of the Lugansk oblast that was taken in the last several days by Russian forces.

9:03
Donetsk, where are they now? The Russians are not staging a massive assault. They are go slow, pushing here, pushing there, wherever they detect a weak spot, because the Ukrainians really are undermanned to hold a 1,200-kilometer-long front with equal force and strength. So the Russians have been feeling for weak points and striking there, but making progress every day. And their interest is, first of all, to remove from the field the Ukrainian soldiers, by killing them or wounding them so they’re taken away, to reduce the size of the Ukrainian defenses.

9:47
That has been their primary objective. Taking territory is a result of the first. They have been making progress, and they are concentrating their efforts on a couple of … one could call them, logistics hubs, which supply the Ukrainian front lines. First and foremost is the city of Pakrovsk. Pakrovsk is the Ukrainian name. The Russians know the same town as Krasnoyarsk. So you hear both terms in daily news, depending on what the source was, Russian or Ukrainian. The Russians are not storming the city. That type of behavior, which was typical in the first year of the war, is no longer practiced because it’s very expensive in loss of life on the offensive side, on the attacking side. But they are destroying it systematically by bombardment, artillery, and drones.

10:39
They will capture Pakrovsk, which will greatly weaken the Ukrainian forces along the line, because that’s where their supplies have been coming from and food. Then further afield, a little bit away from Pakrovsk, there are the towns of Kramatorsk and Slaviansk. These were the towns of great importance, iconic importance, in the start of the DAPAC in 2014, when these two oblasts rebelled against the newly installed regime in Kiev following a coup d’état. This is in February 2014. These two towns, or particularly Slaviansk, was held by a very small militia force against a much larger Ukrainian army force.

11:31
And to take it to something that will resonate with American viewers was kind of Alamo of Ukraine. Alamo was a last stand, a last, known in American history for patriotic self-sacrifice. And that’s what was going on in Slaviansk for 85 days in 2014. And so to be retaken by Russian forces is significant, because from there it’s a clear plain straight to the Dnieper River. And that is the east-west divide 50-50 between West Ukraine, which is where the ultra-nationalists come from, and the East Ukraine, which was always heavily populated, majority populated by Russian speakers.

WION: 12:19
Understood. Thanks so much Dr. Gilbert for encapsulating all that information. You’ve really taken the trajectory right from 2014, Crimea to now and what Russia may plan to do next. But as of what Trump has done or what the US is doing with Ukraine, that is anyone’s guess at this point. There’s a lot happening behind closed doors, which one will need to wait and watch. Perhaps sometime from now, the truth is going to come out.

As of now, one knows for sure that there is a lot of backdoor negotiation which is going on, results of which we are seeing in these headlines. Kiev is left scratching their head, they are trying to figure out what to do next when US has halted their military aid and Russia is definitely advancing. With a friend like the US and a foe like Russia, what kind of options does Ukraine have?

13:04
We will be, you know, tracking all these developments closely right here on “Game Plan”. That was Gilbert Doctorow joining me on the show. Thank you so much, Doctor.