I used this interview to drive home the fact that the Russians do indeed seek a diplomatic solution to the war, but on their own well-known terms which amount to a Ukrainian capitulation. But the main issue I introduced was the likelihood that the United States now is actively working to bring down Zelensky by encouraging and facilitating the massive demonstrations this past week against Zelensky’s new law stripping the two Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies of independence.
There is some fresh news to add to that story.
First, this weekend’s Financial Times tells us that there is a revolt among deputies of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party against his decision to withdraw or rewrite the offending law on the anti-corruption agencies so as to satisfy domestic and foreign critics. As many as 70 of his deputies to the Verkkhovna Rada will vote against the volte-face by Zelensky saying that they fear prosecution now by the agencies because of their having voted to strip the agencies of power. If this happens, then Zelensky will be caught between a rock and a hard place – unable to move ahead and call off the opposition demonstrations.
Other news on Russian tickers today inform us that several officials now being investigated by the anti-corruption agencies have given testimony incriminating Zelensky. Moreover, the ongoing street demonstrations now carry signs saying that Zelensky and his chief of presidential administration Yermak are both “traitors to Ukraine.”
The foregoing strengthens my argument that this war will end sooner rather than later and it will end due to regime change in Kiev, not to collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces on the front lines.
Gilbert Doctorow 
I guess if you keep saying the war will end soon, eventually you’ll be right. In the real world though, the war still has years left to run its course. The collapse of the Zelensky regime won’t end it any more than Assad’s removal led to the end of the Syrian Civil War. It just moved on to a new phase with slightly different groups and alliances.
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Too clever by half. you are comparing apples and oranges. the whole neighborhood was involved in the Syrian war. the Russia-Ukraine war has only two outside interveners: the EU and the USA. As the USA pulls out and pulls the rug from under Zelensky to facilitate a successor ready for real peace talks, the EU is left powerless. Peace will come in the foreseeable future, not years from now as you evidently hope.
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My hope is irrelevant, no sane person wishes for war at all, let alone that it should continue any longer than necessary. I wasn’t comparing Syria to Ukraine, merely presenting it as an example. Certainly, NATO and Russia, who are fighting in Ukraine, comprise “the whole neighborhood”, downplaying their involvement considering their power is also a bit weird.
The USA is not pulling out of Ukraine, it simply doesn’t have any more weapons to give. And even if Zelensky is replaced, his successor will be faced with the same domestic political pressures he himself is. Just like nobody could force the Ukrainians to fight, they decided this themselves, no one can force them to stop fighting either. The real power in Ukraine lies with the ultra nationalists and their ideology precludes any kind of surrender or peace deal.
Профессор, вы же знаете, русские не сдаются. А хохлы это те же русские. К сожалению, нам еще предстоят долгие и кровавые битвы. Не верите, что я прав? Давайте поспорим, по доброму.
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‘they decided this themselves, no one can force them to stop fighting either” Themselves?? Indeed, they voted for Zelensky because he positioned himself as a peace candidate. what they got was something very different. moreover, the intervention of Boris Johnson to kill the initialed peace treaty was not in Zelensky’s script. No, my friend, if the gang of nationalist madmen is driven from power by the Maidan in formation with CIA assistance, then the Ukrainian nation will breathe a sigh of relief.
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But the Maidan is the gang of nationalist madmen now. War takes on a logic all its own, with the sunken cost fallacy and siege mentality. Ukrainians have been inundated with propaganda for years now about how they are winning the war, that they are unbeatable with the West behind them. That can’t just be reversed overnight.
Remember, Ukrainian separatists fought the Soviets for years after the end of WW2 and any real hope of victory. In order for this war to end, there have to be facts established on the ground that suit the Russians, which will take time. Or, the West and Ukraine have to be willing to take and acknowledge that they have been defeated. I see zero signs that either is imminent.
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@ royotoyo
Ich selber glaube auch nicht, dass nach dem Krieg – bzw. nach dem Zusammenbruch der Ukraine – der Krieg tatsächlich zu Ende ist, weil besonders in den russophoben Köpfen der deutschen Führungskasten der Krieg gegen Russland bloß aufgeschoben ist. “Russland wird ewig unser Feind” bleiben, tönt es aus mindestens einem Mund (war’s Kiesewetter?). Was wird das wohl bedeuten?! Von dem Moment an, so mein Eindruck, wo sie sich militärisch in der Lage sehen, werden sie wieder gen Osten ziehen wollen – am besten natürlich im Verbund mit den USA. Und danach steht dann China auf dem Programm. Wozu denn sonst dieser irrsinnige Aufrüstungswille im Verbund mit dem Aufbau schlagfähiger Truppen, wozu denn sonst diese angestrebte “Kriegstüchtigkeit” – bevor Russland in Deutschland einmarschiert, wird es wohl eher Deutschland sein, das in Russland einmarschieren will. Üble, ganz üble Zeiten sind das!
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I am not so pessimistic as you appear to be. The “leaders” in Germany, France, the UK are frantically trying to change the subject from Russia must be defeated, Ukraine must win to we have to prepare for war with Russia in 2029.
They will be driven out of power long before that because Trump absolutely does not support that madness and by the time he leaves office the world will have moved on to other problems.
The challenge in each country will be to impeach the bastards and vote in normal human beings who have some interest in the welfare of their own nation.
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Thanks for the reply.
“We must prepare for war with Russia in 2029”:
Yes, exactly!
Why do Mr. Merz, Mr. Kiesewetter, Mr. Pistorius, and all the others have to prepare for a war with Russia that, strangely enough, is predicted to happen in 2029?
And if they are “driven out of power,” it won’t get any better, because those who come after them are no different! No matter who you vote for, the politics always remain the same. The BSW was kicked out, I can’t say much about the AfD, but I’m not voting for them for various reasons. There is no one, absolutely no one, who has any competence – let alone leadership skills. A big mouth – yes, they have that.
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There’s also the point for all the brave talk, they don’t have the means to fight Russia.
Attempting to build such would break them, the political situation in those countries is already febrile. The regimes as a whole are increasingly unpopular.
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Ich mache mir darüber aus mehreren Gründen eigentlich keine Sorgen. Erstens fehlt nicht nur Deutschland, sondern der gesamten NATO die Fähigkeit, eine Invasion Russlands auch nur in Betracht zu ziehen. Dazu gehören Ressourcen, Fertigung und vor allem Arbeitskräfte. Außerdem fehlt ihnen die Kapazität, die Kapazität zu schaffen! Auch wenn ein solcher Krieg ausbrechen würde, würde es nicht so aussehen, wie es in der Ukraine passiert. Russland möchte so viel von der Ukraine und den Ukrainern wie möglich bewahren, weil es beabsichtigt, sie zu erobern und zu behalten. Die Russen würden Europa einfach mit Atomwaffen angreifen und es vollständig zerstören, ohne sich um Kollateralschäden zu kümmern. Die Europäer wissen das, ihre Kriegspläne sind nur ein großer, letzter Crash Grab, eine Art goldener Fallschirm, weil sie spüren, wie ihnen die Macht entgleitet. (Machine Translation)
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Europe has been in a never ending, literal death spiral for over a century now. If anything, that trend is now accelerating.
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To add to the confusion by disputing; “The foregoing strengthens my argument that this war will end sooner rather than later and it will end due to regime change in Kiev, not to collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces on the front lines.”
The conflict in the Ukraine is a war of attrition. Russia will probably prevail over the Ukranian Army in the field at some point in time, even if 20 yrs hence.
With probable certaintity, Russia will not accept NATO presence in whatever is left of Ukraine.
It seems highly unlikely, that NATO, the EU, M16, , the CIA, or the US will cease to want to establish a ‘base’ in Ukraine or cease to aggravagte Russia, all the time, anywhere it can, and by whatever means available. Trump has no more control over the latter than I do. With this collection there will be no security arrangement with Russia.
In the Game of Thrones, the questions become: a) who will replace Zelensky and b) by whom will Zelensky be replaced.
If then, Zelensky is deposed, the key question will be what will be the relationship of a new leader with the ‘collective west’ . Would this leadership seek peace with Russia (no NATO) or will it seek a way to prolong a war by escalating NATO’s presence in the the conflict.
My counter argument is that, based on (my) observation and (my) logic, if a new regime, the ‘west’ will opt to to do the most stupid thing possible, and escalate its presence in the neighborhood of Ukraine (under the guise to protect a newly installed leadership) and to provke Russia, i.e. this will not result in a peace agreement.
IMO, Russia is in an ‘existential struggle with the “West’ and Ukraine will be an unsettled front for a long time.
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