Transcript of Firstpost ‘Spotlight’ interview

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ_NDwd-GIg

Spotlight: 0:00
–the two leaders of Ukraine and of Russia. Of course, Donald Trump announcing this meeting with Putin, a meeting with Zelensky, expected later today. Who do you think Donald Trump trusts?

Doctorow:
I don’t think he trusts anybody. He is tilting this way and pivoting that way; these are just his negotiating tactics, and they don’t tell you anything about where he really stands.

What I’d like to take issue with is the notion that Mr. Trump is in charge, fully in charge, that everything that’s going on is because of decisions that he is making. It’s not that simple. In the case of this meeting that will take place in Budapest, I think that is a last chance for the Russians to find some common grounds with Trump on ending the war. In a sense, Mr. Zarensky was right in saying that the prospect of Tomahawks being delivered to Ukraine has forced the hand of Mr. Putin. He had been under severe criticism by colleagues and by members of the political establishment in Moscow for having been weak, for having looked weak by his go-slow, moderate, turn-the-other cheek, and by his allowing Russia’s red lines to be crossed without any penalty over the last several years, resulting in the most insulting, derogatory remarks about Russia from someone like Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, who spoke within the past week in terms that are unthinkable when you’re talking about one of the world’s biggest and most powerful military establishments, which is Russia.

2:03
So the coming to a head, the issue of the Tomahawks forced the hand of Putin. And I believe that there were remarks by back channels in the week preceding the telephone call, in which the Russians made it clear to Donald Trump that if the Tomahawks are delivered, then Russia will declare war on Ukraine, and there will not be one brick left standing on second brick in Kiev.

So that was the message, and I think was well received in Washington, and they decided in that case there will be no Tomahawks, and in that case we should prepare for final negotiation to put an end to this war. That’s where we are today.

Spotlight: 2:51
Gilbert, building on that, of course, talks that took place between Donald Trump and President Putin in Alaska led to optimism, but a lack of concrete action towards ending this conflict, which has raged on for multiple years now. Why could these talks in Hungary be different?

Doctorow:
Well, first they’re taking place in Hungary, which all by itself is a political statement. The reason for– there was a dispute in Moscow one week ago, which was very important. The general public, your general audience, would not appreciate what this was, but we experts in Russian affairs who followed it for decades saw a dispute between the designated successor, eventual successor to Lavrov as the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry. He is a deputy minister, Mr. Ryabkov, very important man. And he had come out saying that the delivery of Tomahawks meant the destruction of relations with the United States, which is another way of saying war.

He was reprimanded publicly by an adviser to President Putin, Mr. Ushakov, by the press secretary to Mr. Putin, Peskov, and eventually by Mr. Putin himself. And that doesn’t happen. The number two man in the foreign ministry is never publicly rebuked. He was. And now it’s clear what was going on. The tactic of Mr. Putin has been to make sure that the United States remains separate from Europe, that Mr. Trump does not make common cause with the European war hawks. And for that reason, he has humored Mr. Trump. He has said that, well, if you send the Tomahawks, it will damage our relations, when in fact from a Russian standpoint it would ruin the relations.

4:54
He didn’t say that. He doesn’t want to humiliate or seem to force his will on Trump, which would be a very bad idea given the man’s vanity. And so he said it will damage our relations. But behind the scenes you can be sure the message went out to Washington that it will ruin the relations, and there will be total destruction of Ukraine to follow.

As a result, we have this meeting in Budapest. And why Budapest? Because Mr. Orban is the closest to the Russians in the European Union and has called for a peace and wanted to be a peacemaker for some time. You can be sure that the war hawks in Europe, Von der Leyen, Rutte, Kaja Kallas, the foreign minister of the EU, will not be present. If I am wrong and they are present, then nothing will be achieved in Budapest.

5:50
But let’s assume that I’m right and they’re not present. That will let the whole world know that Europe has no geopolitical power and counts for nothing. It will also let the world know that Europe is deeply divided between those who want a war, which I mentioned them, and those who want a peaceful settlement and resumption of normal relations with the big neighbor to the east, which is now three member states of the European Union. It is Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary. It’s not just Mr Urbán by himself.

So it’s a very big political statement that this is taking place not in Saudi Arabia, not in some neutral third country, but in the heart of Europe where it will drive a knife between those who want peace and those who want war in the European Union.

Spotlight: 6:41
Yes, absolutely. Of course, lots of questions still remaining, but looking towards now those meetings, of course, later today with Vlodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump, and then President Vladimir Putin and President Trump. Gilbert Doctorow thank you ever so much for joining us.

Doctorow:
Well thanks for inviting me.

[closing]
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