The relevance of the ‘Two Minutes to Midnight’ Doomsday Clock to the “Ninety five percent agreed” settlement of the Russia-Ukraine War

The media are seeking expert commentary on the statements by Trump and Zelensky in Mar-a-Lago that the terms for a peace treaty are 95% complete.

They are overlooking the folk wisdom of ‘missed by an inch, missed by a mile’, meaning that being close to agreement is never good enough. Either you have a deal or you don’t.   I believe that there is no deal and cannot be a deal when neither Putin nor Zelensky has reason to give ground and seek compromises on the fundamental issues of territory, neutrality status and similar.

The Doomsday Clock of nuclear physicists has been stuck at ‘two minutes to midnight’ since 1953.  The deal on Ukraine may well be stuck at 95% for just as long.

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