I consider my most important discussion point in this interview the observation that the attack on Russia’s Novorossiisk oil terminal which has shut down 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports was by one or more Ukrainian naval drones. It is reasonable to believe that the British have enabled this attack which punishes not Russia but the American companies that own the wells and partly own the pipeline transporting the oil to the now damaged port terminal on the Black Sea. Let us remember that it is precisely the British who were behind the naval drone attack on the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia more than a year ago and also behind drone attacks on Russian naval vessels based in Sevastopol. It would be useful if this question of British dirty work were put to Prime Minister Starmer for clarifications.

This video interview on the Indian broadcaster yesterday morning starts at minute 15 and ends at minute 21. It deals with three issues: the significance of Andrii Yermak’s forced resignation for what the US-Ukraine negotiations in Washington will look like at the start of the coming week; the ‘humanitarian’ concerns which Trump say drive his intervention to end the war; and the Realpolitik explanation for his priority on luring Russia away from its close alliance with China.

Rasheed and I were very lucky with the timing of today’s program, because there were dramatic changes in the situation of the Russia-Ukraine War coming out of the denial of confiscation of Russian state assets by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and out of the resignation of Andrii Yermak, the power behind Zelensky’s throne, following a raid on his house by the Anti-Corruption Agency in Kiev. 

The chat is nearly an hour long and covers many issues going back to the 2013 Maidan demonstrations and 2014 overthrow of Ukrianian president Yanukovich and coming straight up to today and the outlook for political collapse in Kiev in the days to come.

NewsX World:  Putin announces military modernization

This midday interview on the Indian television station NewsX World featured several items from breaking news, including President Putin’s remarks at the ongoing Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Putin said that Russia will be making available to the CSTO Member States its latest military hardware that has proven itself on the field of battle. As I say here, providing ‘toys for the boys’ is a sensible way of raising loyalty among these former republics of the USSR and of keeping out of Central Asia, in particular, the meddling US, British and French spoilers.

I will be attending a conference on Eurasian security at the Russian Embassy in Brussels this evening and if there is any information of value to the Community that comes out of that event I will post it here tomorrow.

The other key item in this video concerns Erdogan’s response to President Macron’s efforts to bring Turkey into a British and French force that would be introduced into Ukraine ahead of implementation of a cease-fire to provide security to the Ukrainians.

Occasionally the production team at the Indian broadcaster News X puts me together with someone from the other side of the barricades, so to speak, to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war, now in the Ukraine peace talks.

Going back nine months or more, News X was just getting started filling its stable of experts for these programs and, frankly speaking, the first panelists they selected were rather primitive Ukrainian propagandists. I backed out of that format and was subsequently only interviewed on my own. 

However, now I find that they have brought in some very good spokesmen for the other side of the issues of the day and it was an unexpected pleasure to engage in a debate of sorts with a mainstream kind of expert. Curiously, though we have very different big picture thinking, on the issues put to us by the moderator, especially with respect to the likelihood of von der Leyen’s getting her hands on the frozen Russian assets in Euroclear, we were singing from the same scores.

Pay no attention to the titles on the video. This is a news hour broadcast and the first 5 minutes deal with the breaking news in a great many different places. After that it is strictly Ukraine and the questions to me and my fellow panelist.

US’ 28-Point Peace Plan Empowers Russia, Diminishes Ukraine? | WION GAME PLAN

It was a pleasure this morning to have a 10-minute online chat with presenter Shivan Chanana of India’s largest English-language global broadcaster, WION, who have more than 9 million subscribers.

In keeping with the shifting currents in high politics in Delhi, which always walked a tightrope between the USA and Russia (formerly USSR),  the broadcaster has shifted back and forth between favoring Mainstream commentaries on the Russia-Ukraine war from US military experts over the past several months and then coming back to me for a contrarian opinion as they did today.  Please note that the single largest audience I have ever had in podcasts, more than 350,000 views, was precisely on WION at perhaps 9 months ago.

This link to a brief interview from yesterday has just arrived and I am pleased to share it with the Community. Pay no attention to the ‘China Warning’ heading because this is a news digest and the Russia-Ukraine War is the first topic on the interview agenda after the presenter reads off the top news of the hour.

Yes, as you will notice, my expectations from this latest Trump peace initiative are changing by the day. I emphasize that I have no angst changing my position when the object under examination changes, and the evolution of this initiative is anything but consistent.

Some are saying that Team Trump is overseeing a ‘bait and switch’ operation in which the Russians were offered one fairly acceptable 28-point plan and now instead they will be required to agree to a much less desirable Ukrainian-edited plan.  That may be.  But I think something more characteristic of Trump is underway:  he is preparing for the parties NOT to agree to his mediated settlement and then will lower the boom on both – withdrawing US intel and military hardware support for Ukraine and imposing new draconian sanctions on Russia. This will allow him to wiggle out of the entire project of bringing peace to Ukraine and tell the Europeans to deal with it on their own. 

I mention this as a possible explanation for the peculiar behavior of Dan Driscoll and Steve Witkoff in Geneva, letting the Ukrainians gut the original proposal and then smiling at the end and saying everything is very constructive.

RT International interview:  Trump disappoints yet again…

The news coming out of the Geneva talks today between the US delegation headed by Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Daniel Driscoll is shocking and upsets my optimistic expectations for peace arrived at on Friday and Saturday following the release of the 28-point Trump plan.

It is inconceivable that Trump can expect to get an approving from Moscow after its having been gutted by the Ukrainians acting in consultation with the European war-mongers. Putin’s wager on reestablishing good relations with the USA and neutralizing the Europeans appears to have been lost. Will he now throw in his and Russia’s lot with the Russian ultranationalists and escalate the destruction of Ukraine? Will he finally decapitate the regime?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p_3hj6hDKa0Tf2PODe4_X4V7ycSPM9JJ/view?usp=sharing