A chat with Professor Glenn Diesen about US Control of Ukraine’s Power Plants and Europe’s Preparation for War

It was a pleasure to join Professor Diesen for what surely will be seen as a controversial discussion of the logic in Donald Trump’s bid to take possession of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and still more controversial discussion of Europe’s latest steps to prepare for war with Russia while defying Trump and facing the total loss of the U.S. defense umbrella.

Where does all this lead us?  As I have said elsewhere in the past couple of days, the U.S.-Russian rapprochement that is now in heated discussion between Putin and Trump is firstly directed at beating Europe and Ukraine into submission to their will.  After all, as Trump said bluntly to Zelensky during their Oval Office altercation, you have to consider who has the cards and who doesn’t.  With respect to Europe and NATO, Trump has all the cards, Europe has none.

U.S. control over Ukrainian nuclear power plants?

Today’s news on the Ukrainian front centers on the one-hour telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday during which Trump suggested that the USA take ownership of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. The BBC’s commentators could make no sense of this.  Let’s give it a try below.

Most of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants are within territory under its own control. However, the largest such plant, indeed the largest nuclear plant in all of Europe, is in Zaporozhye under Russian command. Because of repeated Ukrainian missile and drone attacks which damaged the generators providing electricity needed to control the plant and also damaged administrative facilities, the Zaporozhye plant is not operating presently, but it could be restored in relatively short order.

Now why would the USA be interested in taking control of those plants?

For one thing, these are tangible assets of considerable present and future value. In that sense, they are easy to claim as partial reimbursement for the cash and war materiel that Washington poured into Ukraine over the past three years, much easier to quantify than the much touted rare earth deposits that were first identified as potential compensation to the USA but are likely a chimera.

Secondly, US ownership would, like the imagined rare earths mining, provide a focus for long terms American presence in Ukraine and thereby would be a ‘guarantee’ against possible future Russian ‘aggression’ without the need for boots on the ground.  This would knock down entirely the British-French initiative for a coalition of the willing to position so-called military peace enforcers, which the Russians categorically reject and which could be a trigger for the start of WWIII.

Thirdly, US ownership would prevent the more insane groups within Ukrainian civil and military elites from using the nuclear waste buried just around the power plants to create ‘dirty bombs’ to attack Russia, as the revanchists surely have been plotting.

What surprises me about this proposal is that it found an author within the Trump entourage and was quickly taken up to the level of The Boss.  There were plenty of smart assed Yale and Harvard educated lawyers in the entourage of Joe Biden but all they cooked up for their boss was sophomoric level ideas that lacked any grasp of how the real-world functions.  Not so the people around Trump.  Bravo!

How would the Russians take this idea of U.S. ownership of Kiev’s nuclear power plants?  I think it will go down very well in Moscow. This kind of adult analysis of the situation and preparation of constructive tentative solutions has not been seen on the U.S. side for decades.

If I may here complete the thinking process that I opened yesterday in my chat with Judge Napolitano, I think the essence of the reset Trump is proposing to Putin is for a new Russian-American alliance, as per in WWII, set within a reconfigured understanding of who are the Allies and who are the Axis.  The Axis today is Britain, France and Germany!   If I am right, then it is essential that progress be made on the Ukraine settlement post haste so that Trump can join Putin, Xi and Modi in Moscow on 9 May.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Kontrolle der USA über ukrainische Kernkraftwerke?

Die heutigen Nachrichten an der ukrainischen Front drehen sich um das einstündige Telefongespräch zwischen Donald Trump und Wolodymyr Selensky gestern, in dem Trump vorschlug, dass die USA die ukrainischen Kernkraftwerke übernehmen sollten. Die Kommentatoren der BBC konnten dem nichts abgewinnen. Versuchen wir es weiter unten.

Die meisten Kernkraftwerke der Ukraine befinden sich auf dem Territorium, das unter ihrer eigenen Kontrolle steht. Das größte dieser Kraftwerke, das größte Kernkraftwerk in ganz Europa, befindet sich jedoch in Saporischschja unter russischer Kontrolle. Aufgrund wiederholter ukrainischer Raketen- und Drohnenangriffe, bei denen die Generatoren beschädigt wurden, die den für die Kontrolle des Kraftwerks benötigten Strom liefern, und auch die Verwaltungseinrichtungen beschädigt wurden, ist das Kraftwerk in Saporischschja derzeit nicht in Betrieb, könnte aber in relativ kurzer Zeit wiederhergestellt werden.

Warum sollten die USA nun daran interessiert sein, die Kontrolle über diese Kraftwerke zu übernehmen?

Zum einen handelt es sich hierbei um Sachwerte von beträchtlichem gegenwärtigem und zukünftigem Wert. In diesem Sinne lassen sie sich leicht als Teilrückerstattung für das Geld und Kriegsmaterial geltend machen, das Washington in den letzten drei Jahren in die Ukraine gepumpt hat, und sie sind viel einfacher zu quantifizieren als die viel gepriesenen Seltenerdvorkommen, die zunächst als potenzieller Ausgleich für die USA identifiziert wurden, aber wahrscheinlich eine Chimäre sind.

Zweitens würde der Besitz durch die USA, wie der erdachte Abbau von Seltenen Erden, einen Schwerpunkt für eine langfristige amerikanische Präsenz in der Ukraine bilden und somit eine „Garantie“ gegen eine mögliche zukünftige russische „Aggression“ darstellen, ohne dass Bodentruppen erforderlich wären. Dies würde die britisch-französische Initiative für eine Koalition der Willigen zur Stationierung sogenannter militärischer Friedenstruppen, die von den Russen kategorisch abgelehnt werden und ein Auslöser für den Beginn des Dritten Weltkriegs sein könnten, völlig zunichte machen.

Drittens würde die Übernahme durch die USA verhindern, dass die verrückteren Gruppen innerhalb der ukrainischen zivilen und militärischen Eliten den direkt um die Kraftwerke vergrabenen Atommüll zur Herstellung von „schmutzigen Bomben“ für Angriffe auf Russland verwenden, wie es die Revanchisten sicherlich geplant haben.

Was mich an diesem Vorschlag überrascht, ist, dass er einen Autor im Trump-Gefolge gefunden hat und schnell auf die Ebene des Chefs gehoben wurde. Es gab viele klugscheißerische Anwälte mit Yale- und Harvard-Abschluss im Gefolge von Joe Biden, aber alles, was sie für ihren Chef ausheckten, waren Ideen auf Sophomor-Niveau, denen jegliches Verständnis dafür fehlte, wie die reale Welt funktioniert. Nicht so die Leute um Trump herum. Bravo!

Wie würden die Russen diese Idee des US-Besitzes der Kiewer Kernkraftwerke aufnehmen? Ich denke, das würde in Moskau sehr gut ankommen. Diese Art der erwachsenen Analyse der Situation und der Vorbereitung konstruktiver vorläufiger Lösungen hat man auf US-Seite seit Jahrzehnten nicht mehr gesehen.

Wenn ich hier den Denkprozess abschließen darf, den ich gestern in meinem Gespräch mit Judge Napolitano begonnen habe, denke ich, dass der Kern des Neustarts, den Trump Putin vorschlägt, in einer neuen russisch-amerikanischen Allianz besteht, wie im Zweiten Weltkrieg, innerhalb eines neu gestalteten Verständnisses dessen, wer die Alliierten und wer die Achsenmächte sind. Die Achsenmächte sind heute Großbritannien, Frankreich und Deutschland! Wenn ich recht habe, dann ist es unerlässlich, dass bei der Beilegung des Ukraine-Konflikts schnell Fortschritte erzielt werden, damit Trump am 9. Mai in Moskau mit Putin, Xi und Modi zusammentreffen kann.

Transcript of ‘Judging Freedom,’ 19 March

Transcription submitted by a reader

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6GtErjGGIk

Napolitano: 0:33
Hi, everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for “Judging freedom”. Today is Wednesday, March 19th. 2025. Professor Gilbert Doctorow joins us now. Professor Doctorow, it’s a pleasure. Thank you.

Let’s get right to the news of the morning, which is that the White House is claiming a significant breakthrough in the negotiations that took place between President Trump and President Putin, which appears to have resulted in an agreement by the Russians not to attack energy infrastructure for the Ukrainians. We don’t have any response from the Ukrainians yet, but before we talk about Zelensky and before we talk about the Europeans, is this a ceasefire the way the White House wants us to believe?

Doctorow:
No, we know very little about what was discussed from what Donald Trump has released. And that’s not surprising and nobody can blame him. These discussions are still very sensitive. The opponents to Trump domestically and internationally are extremely powerful and are looking for a fight. So he will not tip his hand at this point. It would be quite inappropriate. It’s also clear that the two gentlemen didn’t spend two hours and 28 minutes discussing the halt of Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure in Ukraine.

2:09
What I’d like to point out is a remark that I haven’t seen highlighted in mainstream, namely the remark made by Peskov after the call was over that the world is a lot safer now than it was before the call was made.

Napolitano:
Well, that’s profound. Do you know what he was talking about? Did they discuss nuclear weapons? I guess we don’t know what they discussed other than Ukrainian infrastructure, energy infrastructure.

Doctorow:
I don’t think that the energy infrastructure took much time in their chat. I’m sure that it was Trump trying to give a vision of what a reset with Russia would look like. And it obviously was very appealing to the Russians. The halt on attack on energy infrastructure was a gesture of goodwill, nothing more.

But it was necessary to support Trump’s statements that progress is being made. Of greater interest, of course, is the announcement that working groups have been assigned again, that there will be further talks this Sunday in Saudi Arabia. And that’s with regard to progress on the, well, it’s a merged issue of a ceasefire and the outcome of possible peace negotiations.

Napolitano: 3:35
When is the last time an American president spoke directly with a Russian president?

Doctorow:
Well, Joe Biden did. This is back in December 2021. And of course, he had his … little summit with Putin in the spring about that year. But the point is no one has spoken for two hours and 28 minutes on the phone, I don’t think anytime. This is a record.

And they had something to talk about. I think it really was on the level of presidents talking about a new cooperative relationship.

Napolitano:
Do we know if whatever they agreed to resembles at all whatever Secretary of State Rubio and Ukrainian President Zelensky agreed to?

Doctorow: 4:30
Oh, I think that’s off the table. That’s a separate issue. I would imagine what we’re talking about, if I could just go straight to the point, we’re talking about a new configuration of the United States and Russia waging war on Europe.

Napolitano:
Well, that new configuration is what people like you and Doug MacGregor and Larry Wilkerson and Jeff Sachs and John Mearsheimer and Scott Ritter and those of us who are decidedly Not neocons have been pushing on the president since he was elected: that grand reset, which I think you will agree with me should involve China and Brazil and India as well as Russia, that grand reset of realism, recognizing the sovereignty of other countries and their legitimate security needs, and interacting with them culturally, socially and above all economically, agreed?

Doctorow: 5:37
Oh, I agree completely, But let’s go step by step. The immediate task is to neutralize Europe. The immediate task is to neutralize the Ukrainians, Zelensky and the others vying for power in Ukraine. And on that I think they could have had a good subject for discussion. Because this is not an abstract issue, it’s a concrete issue which is intended by the Europeans and by Zelensky to sabotage the peace negotiations.

So I think the Russians and the Americans are going to make common cause on this.

Napolitano: 6:15
What do you think motivated President Putin to show up in Kursk in military garb and very publicly and ostentatiously? I’ve never seen him do this. It reminds me of Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam in the mid-60s. Very ostentatiously saying, let’s get this over with, and it’s just about over with. What motivated that?

Doctorow:
Well, it’s critical for the Russian public to understand that the Kursk adventure is coming to an immediate end. That was held out as something to be done before any talks with the Ukrainians could take place. And so Putin was finalizing that, letting his own public know that this is being done and for that reason, we are prepared to enter the talks.

Napolitano: 7:09
What is the Kremlin view of President Trump’s decision, if there is one, I know you monitor Russian media very effectively, Professor, of Donald Trump’s decision to bomb the Houthis, which resulted in the deaths of Yemen civilians?

Doctorow:
Well, it’s easier to bomb the Houthis than just to bomb Tehran. So this was a messaging. Look, there are a lot of cynical things going on here, and bombing the Houthis was one such cynical measure. Lives were lost, civilian lives were lost. They are on, this blood is on Trump’s hands. But I think he exculpates himself by saying, that by his actions, he is avoiding much bigger bloodshed.

7:58
And I think that you have to look at everything that Trump is doing today from the perspective of his prioritizing, his managing his political strengths to achieve one overriding goal. And that is a reset with Russia, which is a precondition for a new world order of the kind that you described a few minutes ago.

/napolitano: 8:25
What does this say for the request that we know is coming to Donald Trump from Benjamin Netanyahu to back up the IDF when it attacks Iran? Has Trump already said, forget about it, Bibi, or I’m thinking about it?

Doctorow:
Well, he might say I’m thinking about it because it’s too early for him to fully alienate Netanyahu and Netanyahu’s backers in the States.

This is a war of great proportions going on between Trump, his domestic opponents, and his foreign opponents in Europe. And he has to find points of leverage. He cannot fight on all fronts. It’s quite enough that he’s got these tariff wars going. He cannot fight on all fronts.

And he has to find leverage. And of course the Israeli supporters are a very effective point of leverage and demonstration that you know, boys, I’m not all bad. I’m doing some things that you want very much. So that is– to have them at his back makes it much easier for him to go into what is going to be a really struggle of enormous proportions with Starmer and Macron and Merz and von der Leyen. That is a hell of a task he has.

Napolitano: 9:54
Well, what do you think those European leaders are thinking this morning, after they read the Kremlin’s version of the two and a half hour conversation and the White House version of the two and a half hour conversation? I don’t see any mention of them.

Doctorow:
No, they’re not there. And practically speaking, Europe has made itself totally irrelevant. There are some people who may appreciate that, but the ones you mentioned don’t.

They will get it. They think they have enormous leverage over Trump because of his domestic opposition, with whom they’re all well connected, and because they overvalue themselves in theworld order. I think they’re in for a rude awakening in the several weeks to come.

Napolitano: 10:42
What is the obligation of the Ukrainians in compliance with whatever Trump and Putin agree to? Do they have to agree to stop attacking anything inside Russia? I mean, a ceasefire, however limited it is, has got to be bilateral.

Doctorow:
To my understanding, it is bilateral. And although some of the mainstream are speaking about this as something that Putin will do, as I understand it, he gave orders to the military immediately after the phone conversation to stop all drone and aerial attacks on the infrastructure, the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. I believe that Kiev has made the same promise.

But let’s step back a bit, because everybody’s talking about the 30-day unconditional ceasefire. And that’s not where this all started. This started from Zelensky speaking about a 30-day partial ceasefire, which was precisely about things like this: against civilian infrastructure and against the free naval transit in the Black Sea. That is what Zelensky proposed. The Americans overrode that and made it much broader, so it would be more impressive. And now it’s been rolled back to where it started when Zelensky first proposed it.

12:10
So I think it’s no question, but that Zelensky agrees to this notion of no attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure. It’s Not to say no attacks on Russia, but not on the energy infrastructure, which they have been doing. They were attacking refineries, oil depots, and so forth.

Napolitano: 12:28
Why do you suppose, and do you see any connection, Why do you suppose Donald Trump authorized Benjamin Netanyahu to resume the genocide in Gaza? And do you see any connection between his communication with and agreement with President Putin and this dreadful unleashing of Netanyahu?

Doctorow:
I think they’re directly related. And this is a point that I’ve had in correspondence to some of the readers of my essays. Some people have been extremely outraged that I could speak rather calmly about the green light that Trump gave to Netanyahu.

Napolitano:
Oh, Professor Doctorow, you are, you always speak calmly, no matter what we’re talking about, which is one of your great assets.

Doctorow:
Well, they’re linked because, as I said, Trump is in a struggle of enormous consequence and great danger to himself. And he has to have points of leverage. There’s no better point of leverage in the United States Congress than the Israeli lobby and that end of American foreign policy. So with that at his back, he can look like one of the boys, a continuator of American foreign policy, at the same time that his overreaching aim is to destroy the fundamentals of American foreign policy of the last 80 years.

Napolitano:
Not with respect to Israel.

Doctorow: 14:04
No, not yet. But I would be very cautious in believing that his support for Netanyahu on his miserable, cowardly and deadly attack in Gaza is anything more than a temporary deal with the devil, for the reasons I gave.

Napolitano:
All right, well here is his press secretary– Chris, I’m going to guess this was yesterday or last night or very early this morning– defending, well, revealing the consultation with the Israelis and defending the Trump administration decision to unleash them.

Spokeswoman: 14:48
The Trump administration and the White House were consulted by the Israelis on their attacks in Gaza tonight. And as President Trump has made it clear, Hamas, the Houthis, Iran, all those who seek to terrorize not just Israel but also the United States of America will see a price to pay. All hell will break loose. And all of the terrorists in the Middle East, again the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iranian-backed terror proxies and Iran themselves should take President Trump very seriously when he says he is not afraid to stand for law abiding people, he is not afraid to stand up for the United States of America and our friend and our ally Israel.

Napolitano: 15:32
Now she’s known for her hyperbole, but it doesn’t sound like she’s representing or speaking on behalf of somebody who’s about to say to to Netanyahu enough is enough.

Doctorow:
He is not prepared to do that today. He needs Netanyahu’s supporters on Capitol Hill–

Napolitano:
He needs Netanyahu’s supporters on Capitol Hill
in order to do the re– in your theory, which is very rational in my view– in order to do the reset with Russia, China, India, and Brazil.

Doctorow:
Exactly.

Napolitano: 16:08
This is a fascinating observation. It pains me that human beings’ lives can be sacrificed like this, Yemen lives sacrificed for Iran, and now 400 civilians killed by the IDF yesterday. There is no moral, legal, or even military justification for that whatsoever, and everybody acts like it’s a normal thing for the Israelis to do. Why aren’t people furious about it?

Doctorow:
I agree with you on all the moral, legal issues. At the same time, there’s every political reason to do it. And I think the people misjudge Trump because “he’s a businessman, he’s a transactional operator, he has no experience in international affairs”. I think they’re dead wrong. I think that Trump is a very political animal, probably the most effective political animal we’ve had in the Oval Office since Lyndon Johnson.

He trades IOUs. He uses threats freely and with some effect. I made the remark that his political strength was demonstrated by his getting every single one of his nominees for cabinet-level posts through the nominating process. One of my readers, who was better briefed in history than I am, American history, commented that 285 years of American nominations, only nine nominees were ever rejected by the Senate. However, that’s a very good point and I have to admit it.

17:45
Nonetheless, they weren’t candidates like the ones that Trump put up. I don’t think we’ve had a history of candidates being put up for the Senate process who were openly saying that they would use a wrecking ball against the institutions and policies of this country over the last 80 years.

Napolitano:
Have we ever had a secretary of health and human services who believes the best way to fight a disease is to let it spread, which is what he said yesterday?

Well, look, the Brits and the Scandinavians were saying that about COVID. So it’s not as though he’s promoting a novel approach. It was unproven. It didn’t work. But nonetheless, that idea did float for maybe a year or two during the COVID epidemic.

Napolitano:
All right, I want to balance off your calmness with Scott Ritter’s anger over Trump bombing the Houthies and threats to Iran. It’s a minute and a half long, but he’s over the top and in my view, wonderful, but I’d love you to comment on it. Chris, get ready. Chris, cut number one.

Ritter: 18:55
Because Donald Trump ordered a bomb that blows up with greater explosive force than the bomb that was dropped under Biden, Trump is an idiot. I hate to say that, and my wife is going to be very mad at me for saying this, but this is the kind of stupidity that a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has said, Mr. President, stop, cease and desist.

The Secretary of Defense has to do an intervention and say, please don’t do this. You are making us look stupid. You’re putting us in a bad situation and it’s unbecoming of the commander in chief to speak in this fashion about conflict when American lives are on the line. Mr. President, shut up.

And that’s what he needs to do. Shut up. If you’re going to drop bombs, drop bombs. But quit pretending that because you’re Donald Trump, the earth shakes greater because you dropped the damn bomb than somebody else. The bomb blows up and you know who doesn’t care?

The Houthi. All you can do is drop bombs, and your bombs won’t stop them from firing missiles. And then you want to now threaten the Iranian people the same way. It isn’t going to work, Mr. President, and what’s going to happen are one of two things.

One, you’re going to look foolish because you’re going to have to back down when your Secretary of Defense says, we can’t escalate any further without putting 700,000 boots on the ground. That’s a major invasion that will cause the entire region to blow up. Oil prices will spin out of control and your economy will crash and you’re finished, Mr. President. You’re done.

Everything you’re trying to do, the American people will not tolerate 120-dollar oil, because they can’t economically. All the changes you’re making are predicated upon a foundation of economic stability which will not be here if you throw oil security, energy security out the window by going to war with Iran. Stop it.

Napolitano: 20:32
What do you think, Professor Calmness?

Doctorow:
Well I think he’s very excitable. My question in response, cynical as it is, ugly as it is on a moral and legal basis, as you properly remarked, the question is, what do you want? Do you want to be vaporized in World War III or do you want to let this sort of nonsense go on that the Trump is doing to show that he’s one of the big boys, continuator of certain elements of American foreign policy? I think this is unfortunately a price that has to be paid for you and me and Scott Ritter not to be vaporized.

Napolitano: 21:15
Understood and deeply appreciated. And it brings us back to where we started. They talked for 2 hours and 28 minutes yesterday, probably 5 minutes on the “let’s stop bombing energy infrastructure” and the rest was on these huge issues, the last of which you just alluded to. Nobody wants the world to be vaporized. Agreed?

Doctorow:
Agreed.

Napolitano:
Professor, Doctorow, a pleasure, my dear friend, and thank you for listening to my froggy voice. I’m at the tail end of a late winter cold. It’ll go away soon. And your time and your thoughts are much appreciated. I look forward already to chatting with you next week.

Doctorow:
Well, thanks for having me.

Napolitano:
Of course. And coming up later today at 11 o’clock this morning on all of this, Colonel Douglas MacGregor; at one this afternoon on all of this, Pepe Escobar; at three o’clock this afternoon on all of this Phil Giraldi.

22:16
Judge Napolitano for “Judging Freedom”.

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Transkript von ‘Judging Freedom,’ 19. März 2025

übermittelt von einem Leser

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6GtErjGGIk

Napolitano: 0:33
Hallo zusammen, hier ist Judge Andrew Napolitano mit „Judging Freedom“. Heute ist Mittwoch, der 19. März 2025. Professor Gilbert Doctorow ist jetzt bei uns. Professor Doctorow, es ist mir ein Vergnügen. Danke.

Kommen wir gleich zu den Nachrichten des Morgens, nämlich dass das Weiße Haus einen bedeutenden Durchbruch bei den Verhandlungen zwischen Präsident Trump und Präsident Putin verkündet hat, der offenbar zu einer Vereinbarung der Russen geführt hat, die Energieinfrastruktur der Ukrainer nicht anzugreifen. Wir haben noch keine Antwort von den Ukrainern, aber bevor wir über Selensky und die Europäer sprechen, ist das wirklich ein Waffenstillstand, wie uns das Weiße Haus glauben machen will?

Doctorow:
Nein, wir wissen nur sehr wenig über die besprochenen Themen, da Donald Trump nur sehr wenig darüber veröffentlicht hat. Das ist nicht überraschend und niemand kann ihm einen Vorwurf machen. Diese Gespräche sind immer noch sehr heikel. Die Gegner von Trump im In- und Ausland sind extrem mächtig und suchen den Konflikt. Daher wird er sich zu diesem Zeitpunkt nicht in die Karten schauen lassen. Das wäre ziemlich unangemessen. Es ist auch klar, dass die beiden Herren nicht zwei Stunden und 28 Minuten damit verbracht haben, über die Einstellung der russischen Angriffe auf die Energieinfrastruktur in der Ukraine zu sprechen.

2:09
Worauf ich hinweisen möchte, ist eine Bemerkung, die ich in den Mainstream-Medien nicht hervorgehoben gesehen habe, nämlich die Bemerkung von Peskov nach Beendigung des Anrufs, dass die Welt jetzt viel sicherer sei als vor dem Anruf.

Napolitano:
Das ist ja grundlegend. Wissen Sie, worüber er gesprochen hat? Haben sie über Atomwaffen gesprochen? Ich denke, wir wissen nicht, worüber sie gesprochen haben, außer über die ukrainische Infrastruktur und die Energieinfrastruktur.

Doctorow:
Ich glaube nicht, dass die Energieinfrastruktur in ihrem Gespräch viel Zeit in Anspruch genommen hat. Ich bin sicher, dass Trump versucht hat, eine Vision davon zu vermitteln, wie ein Neustart mit Russland aussehen könnte. Und das hat die Russen offensichtlich sehr angesprochen. Der Stopp des Angriffs auf die Energieinfrastruktur war eine Geste des guten Willens, mehr nicht.

Aber es war notwendig, Trumps Aussagen zu unterstützen, dass Fortschritte erzielt werden. Von größerem Interesse ist natürlich die Ankündigung, dass wieder Arbeitsgruppen eingesetzt wurden und dass es an diesem Sonntag in Saudi-Arabien weitere Gespräche geben wird. Und das im Hinblick auf Fortschritte bei der, nun ja, es ist eine Frage, die Waffenruhe und das Ergebnis möglicher Friedensverhandlungen betrifft.

Napolitano: 3:35
Wann hat ein amerikanischer Präsident das letzte Mal direkt mit einem russischen Präsidenten gesprochen?

Doctorow:
Nun, Joe Biden hat das getan. Das war im Dezember 2021. Und natürlich hatte er im Frühjahr dieses Jahres sein … kleines Gipfeltreffen mit Putin. Aber der Punkt ist, dass noch nie jemand zwei Stunden und 28 Minuten am Telefon gesprochen hat, glaube ich. Das ist ein Rekord.

Und sie hatten etwas zu besprechen. Ich denke, es ging wirklich darum, dass die Präsidenten über eine neue kooperative Beziehung gesprochen haben.

Napolitano:
Wissen wir, ob das, worauf sie sich geeinigt haben, überhaupt dem ähnelt, worauf sich Außenminister Rubio und der ukrainische Präsident Selensky geeinigt hatten?

Doctorow: 4:30
Oh, ich denke, das ist vom Tisch. Das ist ein anderes Thema. Ich würde sagen, worüber wir sprechen, wenn ich direkt zum Punkt kommen dürfte, wir sprechen über eine neue Konstellation, in der die Vereinigten Staaten und Russland Europa den Krieg erklären.

Napolitano:
Nun, diese neue Konfiguration ist es, die Leute wie Sie und Doug MacGregor und Larry Wilkerson und Jeff Sachs und John Mearsheimer und Scott Ritter und diejenigen von uns, die entschieden keine Neokonservativen sind, seit seiner Wahl auf den Präsidenten einreden: Dieser große Neustart, bei dem meiner Meinung nach auch China, Brasilien und Indien sowie Russland einbezogen werden sollten, dieser große Neustart des Realismus, bei dem die Souveränität anderer Länder und ihre legitimen Sicherheitsbedürfnisse anerkannt werden und mit ihnen kulturell, sozial und vor allem wirtschaftlich interagiert wird. Stimmen Sie mir zu?

Doctorow: 5:37
Oh, ich stimme vollkommen zu, aber gehen wir Schritt für Schritt vor. Die unmittelbare Aufgabe besteht darin, Europa zu neutralisieren. Die unmittelbare Aufgabe besteht darin, die Ukrainer, Selensky und die anderen, die in der Ukraine um die Macht kämpfen, zu neutralisieren. Und ich denke, dass sie damit ein gutes Gesprächsthema gehabt hätten. Denn es handelt sich hierbei nicht um ein abstraktes, sondern um ein konkretes Problem, das von den Europäern und Selensky dazu genutzt werden soll, die Friedensverhandlungen zu sabotieren.

Ich denke also, dass die Russen und die Amerikaner in dieser Angelegenheit gemeinsame Sache machen werden.

Napolitano: 6:15
Was glauben Sie, hat Präsident Putin dazu motiviert, in Kursk in Militärkleidung und sehr öffentlich und demonstrativ aufzutreten? Ich habe ihn noch nie so gesehen. Es erinnert mich an Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam Mitte der 60er Jahre. Sehr demonstrativ sagt er: Bringen wir es hinter uns, und es ist fast vorbei. Was hat ihn dazu motiviert?

Doctorow:
Nun, es ist für die russische Öffentlichkeit von entscheidender Bedeutung zu verstehen, dass das Kursk-Abenteuer unmittelbar zu Ende geht. Dies wurde als etwas dargestellt, das getan werden muss, bevor Gespräche mit den Ukrainern stattfinden können. Und so hat Putin dies zum Abschluss gebracht und seine eigene Öffentlichkeit wissen lassen, dass dies getan wird und wir auf dieser Grundlage bereit sind, in Gespräche einzutreten.

Napolitano: 7:09
Wie steht der Kreml zu Präsident Trumps Entscheidung, falls es eine gibt – ich weiß, dass Sie die russischen Medien sehr effektiv beobachten, Professor – zu Donald Trumps Entscheidung, die Huthis zu bombardieren, was zum Tod von jemenitischen Zivilisten führte?

Doctorow:
Nun, es ist einfacher, die Huthis zu bombardieren, als einfach nur Teheran zu bombardieren. Das war also eine Botschaft. Sehen Sie, hier passieren viele zynische Dinge, und die Bombardierung der Huthis war eine solche zynische Maßnahme. Es gab Tote, es gab zivile Tote. Dieses Blut klebt an Trumps Händen. Aber ich denke, er redet sich damit heraus, dass er durch sein Handeln ein viel größeres Blutvergießen verhindert.

7:58
Und ich denke, dass man alles, was Trump heute tut, aus der Perspektive seiner Prioritäten und der Verwaltung seiner politischen Stärken betrachten muss, um ein übergeordnetes Ziel zu erreichen. Und das ist ein Neustart mit Russland, der eine Voraussetzung für eine neue Weltordnung ist, wie Sie sie vor einigen Minuten beschrieben haben.

Napolitano: 8:25
Was bedeutet dies für die Bitte, von der wir wissen, dass sie von Benjamin Netanjahu an Donald Trump gerichtet wird, die IDF bei einem Angriff auf den Iran zu unterstützen? Hat Trump bereits gesagt: „Vergiss es, Bibi“, oder „Ich denke darüber nach“?

Doctorow:
Nun, er könnte sagen, dass ich darüber nachdenke, weil es für ihn noch zu früh ist, sich Netanjahu und Netanjahus Unterstützer in den USA vollständig zu entfremden.

Dies ist ein Krieg von großem Ausmaß, der zwischen Trump, seinen innenpolitischen Gegnern und seinen ausländischen Gegnern in Europa stattfindet. Und er muss Druckmittel finden. Er kann nicht an allen Fronten kämpfen. Es reicht völlig aus, dass er diese Zollkriege am Laufen hat. Er kann nicht an allen Fronten kämpfen.

Und er muss einen Hebel finden. Und natürlich sind die israelischen Unterstützer ein sehr wirksamer Hebel und ein Beweis dafür, dass man weiß, Jungs, ich bin nicht ganz schlecht. Ich tue einige Dinge, die ihr sehr wollt. Das heißt also, sie im Rücken zu haben, macht es ihm viel leichter, in einen Kampf von wirklich enormen Ausmaßen mit Starmer und Macron und Merz und von der Leyen zu ziehen. Das ist eine verdammt große Aufgabe, die er hat.

Napolitano: 9:54
Nun, was glauben Sie, denken diese europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs heute Morgen, nachdem sie die Kreml-Version des zweieinhalbstündigen Gesprächs und die Version des Weißen Hauses des zweieinhalbstündigen Gesprächs gelesen haben? Ich sehe keine Stellungnahme von denen.

Doctorow:
Nein, die gibt es nicht. Und praktisch gesehen hat sich Europa völlig irrelevant gemacht. Es gibt einige Leute, die das vielleicht zu schätzen wissen, aber die, die Sie erwähnt haben, nicht.

Sie werden es schon noch verstehen. Die glauben, dass sie aufgrund der innenpolitischen Opposition, mit der sie alle gut vernetzt sind, und weil sie sich in der Weltordnung überschätzen, einen enormen Einfluss auf Trump haben. Ich denke, dass sie in den kommenden Wochen ein böses Erwachen erleben werden.

Napolitano: 10:42
Welche Verpflichtungen haben die Ukrainer im Rahmen der Vereinbarungen zwischen Trump und Putin? Müssen die sich bereit erklären, keine Ziele in Russland mehr anzugreifen? Ich meine, ein Waffenstillstand, wie begrenzt er auch sein mag, muss bilateral sein.

Doctorow:

Meines Wissens ist das bilateral. Und obwohl einige der Mainstream-Medien davon sprechen, dass dies etwas ist, was Putin tun wird, hat er meines Wissens unmittelbar nach dem Telefongespräch dem Militär den Befehl erteilt, alle Drohnen- und Luftangriffe auf die Infrastruktur, die Energieinfrastruktur der Ukraine, einzustellen. Ich glaube, dass Kiew dasselbe Versprechen abgegeben hat.

Aber lassen Sie uns einen Schritt zurücktreten, denn alle reden über eine 30-tägige bedingungslose Waffenruhe. Und damit hat das alles nicht angefangen. Es begann damit, dass Zelensky von einer 30-tägigen teilweisen Waffenruhe gesprochen hat, bei der es genau um solche Dinge ging: gegen zivile Infrastruktur und gegen die freie Durchfahrt der Marine im Schwarzen Meer. Das war es, was Zelensky vorgeschlagen hatte. Die Amerikaner haben das außer Kraft gesetzt und es viel weiter gefasst, damit es eindrucksvoller wirkt. Und jetzt ist es wieder auf den Stand zurückgesetzt worden, auf dem es war, als Zelensky es zum ersten Mal vorgeschlagen hat.

12:10
Ich denke also, es steht außer Frage, dass Zelensky dieser Vorstellung zustimmt, keine Angriffe auf die russische Energieinfrastruktur zu unternehmen. Das bedeutet nicht, keine Angriffe auf Russland zu unternehmen, sondern keine Angriffe auf die Energieinfrastruktur, was sie aber getan hatten. Sie hatten Raffinerien, Öllager und so weiter angegriffen.

Napolitano: 12:28
Warum, glauben Sie, hat Donald Trump Benjamin Netanjahu autorisiert, den Völkermord in Gaza wieder aufzunehmen? Und sehen Sie einen Zusammenhang zwischen seiner Kommunikation mit und seiner Vereinbarung mit Präsident Putin und dieser schrecklichen Entfesselung von Netanjahu?

Doctorow:
Ich denke, das hängt direkt zusammen. Und das ist ein Punkt, den ich in der Korrespondenz mit einigen Lesern meiner Essays angesprochen habe. Einige Leute waren äußerst empört darüber, dass ich ziemlich ruhig über das grüne Licht gesprochen habe, das Trump Netanjahu gegeben hat.

Napolitano:
Oh, Professor Doctorow, Sie sind, Sie sprechen immer ruhig, egal worüber wir sprechen, was einer Ihrer großen Vorzüge ist.

Doctorow:
Nun, das hängt zusammen, denn wie gesagt: Trump befindet sich in einem Kampf von enormer Tragweite und großer Gefahr für sich selbst. Und er muss Druckmittel haben. Es gibt kein besseres Druckmittel im Kongress der Vereinigten Staaten als die israelische Lobby und diesen Teil der amerikanischen Außenpolitik. Mit dieser Unterstützung im Rücken kann er wie einer der ihren wirken, wie ein Fortsetzer der amerikanischen Außenpolitik, während sein übergeordnetes Ziel darin besteht, die Grundlagen der amerikanischen Außenpolitik der letzten 80 Jahre zu zerstören.

Napolitano:
Nicht in Bezug auf Israel.

Doctorow: 14:04
Nein, noch nicht. Aber ich wäre sehr vorsichtig, wenn ich glauben würde, dass seine Unterstützung für Netanjahu bei seinem erbärmlichen, feigen und tödlichen Angriff in Gaza aus den von mir genannten Gründen mehr ist als ein vorübergehender Pakt mit dem Teufel.

Napolitano:
In Ordnung, hier ist seine Pressesprecherin – Chris, ich vermute, das war gestern oder letzte Nacht oder sehr früh am Morgen – der die Absprache mit den Israelis verteidigt, nun ja, offenbart und die Entscheidung der Trump-Administration verteidigt, sie loszulassen.

Sprecherin: 14:48
Die Trump-Administration und das Weiße Haus wurden heute Abend von den Israelis zu ihren Angriffen in Gaza konsultiert. Und wie Präsident Trump deutlich gemacht hat, werden die Hamas, die Huthis, der Iran und all diejenigen, die nicht nur Israel, sondern auch die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika terrorisieren wollen, einen Preis dafür zahlen müssen. Die Hölle wird losbrechen. Und alle Terroristen im Nahen Osten, auch die Huthis, die Hisbollah, die Hamas, die vom Iran unterstützten Terror-Stellvertreter und der Iran selbst sollten Präsident Trump sehr ernst nehmen, wenn er sagt, dass er keine Angst hat, sich für gesetzestreue Menschen einzusetzen, dass er keine Angst hat, sich für die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika und unseren Freund und Verbündeten Israel einzusetzen.

Napolitano: 15:32
Nun, sie ist für ihre Übertreibungen bekannt, aber es klingt nicht so, als würde sie jemanden vertreten oder für jemanden sprechen, der kurz davor steht, Netanjahu zu sagen, dass es genug ist.

Doctorow:
Er ist heute nicht dazu bereit. Er braucht Netanyahus Anhänger im Capitol Hill –

Napolitano:
Er braucht Netanyahus Anhänger im Capitol Hill, um – in Ihrer Theorie, die meiner Meinung nach sehr rational ist – einen Neustart mit Russland, China, Indien und Brasilien zu machen.

Doctorow:
Genau.

Napolitano: 16:00
Das ist eine faszinierende Beobachtung. Es schmerzt mich, dass Menschenleben auf diese Weise geopfert werden können, Leben im Jemen für den Iran, und jetzt wurden gestern 400 Zivilisten von der IDF getötet. Dafür gibt es keinerlei moralische, rechtliche oder auch nur militärische Rechtfertigung, und alle tun so, als wäre es für die Israelis eine ganz normale Sache. Warum sind die Menschen nicht wütend darüber?

Doctorow:
Ich stimme Ihnen in allen moralischen und rechtlichen Fragen zu. Gleichzeitig gibt es jeden politischen Grund, dies zu tun. Und ich denke, die Leute schätzen Trump falsch ein, weil er ein Geschäftsmann sei, ein Transaktionsunternehmer, er habe keine Erfahrung in internationalen Angelegenheiten. Ich denke, die liegen völlig falsch. Ich denke, dass Trump ein sehr politischer Mensch ist, wahrscheinlich der effektivste politische Mensch, den wir seit Lyndon Johnson im Oval Office hatten.

Er handelt mit Schuldscheinen. Er setzt Drohungen frei und setzt sie mit einiger Wirkung ein. Ich habe angemerkt, dass seine politische Stärke darin zum Ausdruck kommt, dass er jeden einzelnen seiner Kandidaten für Kabinettsposten durch den Nominierungsprozess gebracht hat. Einer meiner Leser, der sich mit Geschichte besser auskennt als ich, nämlich mit amerikanischer Geschichte, kommentierte, dass in 285 Jahren amerikanischer Nominierungen nur neun Kandidaten jemals vom Senat abgelehnt wurden. Das ist allerdings ein sehr guter Punkt, und ich muss es zugeben.

17:45
Aber das waren keine Kandidaten wie diejenigen, die Trump hier aufgestellt hatte. Ich glaube nicht, dass es in der Geschichte schon einmal Kandidaten für den Senat gab, die offen gesagt haben, dass sie die Institutionen und die Politik dieses Landes in den letzten 80 Jahren mit einer Abrissbirne zerstören würden.

Napolitano:
Hatten wir jemals einen Gesundheitsminister, der der Meinung war, dass die beste Art, eine Krankheit zu bekämpfen, darin besteht, sie sich ausbreiten zu lassen, wie er es gestern gesagt hat?

Doctorow:
Nun, die Briten und die Skandinavier haben das über COVID gesagt. Es ist also nicht so, dass er einen neuartigen Ansatz fördert. Es war unbewiesen. Es hat nicht funktioniert. Aber nichtsdestotrotz war diese Idee während der COVID-Epidemie vielleicht ein oder zwei Jahre lang im Umlauf.

Napolitano:
In Ordnung, ich möchte Ihre Gelassenheit mit Scott Ritters Wut über Trumps Bombardierung der Huthis und die Drohungen gegen den Iran ausgleichen. Es ist eineinhalb Minuten lang, aber er übertreibt und ist meiner Meinung nach wunderbar, aber ich würde mich freuen, wenn Sie dazu Stellung nehmen würden. Chris, mach dich bereit. Chris, Schnitt Nummer eins.

Ritter: 18:55
Weil Donald Trump eine Bombe bestellt hat, die mit einer größeren Sprengkraft explodiert als die Bombe, die unter Biden abgeworfen wurde, ist Trump ein Idiot. Ich sage das nur ungern, und meine Frau wird sehr wütend auf mich sein, wenn sie das hört, aber das ist die Art von Dummheit, die ein Vorsitzender der Vereinigten Stabschefs gesagt hat: Herr Präsident, hören Sie auf, lassen Sie es sein und unterlassen Sie es.

Der Verteidigungsminister muss einschreiten und sagen: „Bitte tun Sie das nicht. Sie lassen uns dumm aussehen. Sie bringen uns in eine schlechte Situation, und es ist unangemessen für den Oberbefehlshaber, auf diese Weise über Konflikte zu sprechen, wenn amerikanische Leben auf dem Spiel stehen. Herr Präsident, halten Sie den Mund.

Und genau das sollte er tun. Halten Sie den Mund. Wenn Sie Bomben abwerfen wollen, dann werfen Sie Bomben ab. Aber hören Sie auf, so zu tun, als würde die Erde stärker beben, weil Sie Donald Trump sind und die verdammte Bombe abgeworfen haben, als wenn es jemand anderes getan hätte. Die Bombe explodiert und wissen Sie, wen das nicht interessiert?

Die Huthi. Alles, was Sie tun können, ist, Bomben abzuwerfen, und ihre Bomben werden die nicht davon abhalten, Raketen abzufeuern. Und dann wollen sie jetzt das iranische Volk auf die gleiche Weise bedrohen. Das wird nicht funktionieren, Herr Präsident, und es wird eines von zwei Dingen passieren.

Erstens werden Sie dumm dastehen, weil Sie einen Rückzieher machen müssen, wenn Ihr Verteidigungsminister sagt, dass wir nicht weiter eskalieren können, ohne 700.000 Soldaten auf den Boden zu schicken. Das wäre eine große Invasion, die die gesamte Region in die Luft jagen würde. Die Ölpreise würden außer Kontrolle geraten und Ihre Wirtschaft würde zusammenbrechen und Sie wären am Ende, Herr Präsident. Sie wären erledigt.

Alles, was Sie versuchen zu tun, werden die Amerikaner nicht tolerieren, 120-Dollar-Öl, weil sie es sich wirtschaftlich nicht leisten können. Alle Veränderungen, die Sie vornehmen, basieren auf einer Grundlage wirtschaftlicher Stabilität, die nicht gegeben sein wird, wenn Sie die Ölsicherheit und Energiesicherheit über Bord werfen, indem Sie einen Krieg mit dem Iran beginnen. Hören Sie damit auf.

Napolitano: 20:32
Was meinen Sie, Professor Gelassenheit?

Doctorow:
Nun, ich denke, er ist sehr aufgeregt. Meine Frage als Antwort, so zynisch sie auch ist, so hässlich sie auch auf moralischer und rechtlicher Basis ist, wie Sie richtig bemerkt haben, lautet: Was wollen Sie? Möchten Sie im Dritten Weltkrieg ausgelöscht werden oder möchten Sie diesen Unsinn, den Trump macht, um zu zeigen, dass er einer der Großen ist, der bestimmte Elemente der amerikanischen Außenpolitik fortsetzt, weitergehen lassen? Ich denke, das ist leider der Preis, den wir alle zahlen müssen, damit Sie, ich und Scott Ritter nicht ausgelöscht werden.

Napolitano: 21:15
Verstanden und zutiefst gewürdigt. Und damit sind wir wieder am Ausgangspunkt. Sie haben gestern 2 Stunden und 28 Minuten miteinander gesprochen, wahrscheinlich 5 Minuten über das Thema „Lasst uns aufhören, die Energieinfrastruktur zu bombardieren“, und der Rest drehte sich um diese riesigen Probleme, von denen Sie gerade das letzte angesprochen haben. Niemand will, dass die Welt in Schutt und Asche gelegt wird. Einverstanden?

Doctorow:
Einverstanden.

Napolitano:
Professor Doctorow, es war mir ein Vergnügen, mein lieber Freund, und danke, dass Sie meiner Froschstimme zugehört haben. Ich bin am Ende einer späten Wintererkältung angelangt. Sie wird bald verschwinden. Und ich weiß Ihre Zeit und Ihre Gedanken sehr zu schätzen. Ich freue mich schon darauf, nächste Woche mit Ihnen zu plaudern.

Doctorow:
Nun, danke, dass ich dabei sein durfte.

Napolitano:
Natürlich. Und später heute um 11 Uhr wird Colonel Douglas MacGregor zu diesem Thema sprechen, um 13 Uhr wird Pepe Escobar zu diesem Thema sprechen und um 15 Uhr wird Phil Giraldi zu diesem Thema sprechen.

22:16
Judge Napolitano für “Judging Freedom”.

‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 19 March: Putin and Ceasefire

‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 19 March:  Putin and Ceasefire

Today’s chat with Judge Napolitano was an ideal opportunity to explore the links between Donald Trump’s green light to Netanyahu over resumption of bombing in Gaza and over his own direction of U.S. planes to bomb the Houthis on the one hand with his ongoing negotiations with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine and reset relations to a cooperative level, on the other hand.

Yes, what Trump is doing in the Middle East is cynical and he has blood on his hands. However, he could well argue that the deaths he has caused are a very small price to pay for the billions of lives he will save by bringing us back from the risks of WWIII.  I ask the community whether they agree with prioritizing avoidance of our being atomized in a nuclear exchange, which is what Trump is consciously doing.

What did Putin and Trump discuss on the phone? My wager was one big issue was how both will respond to the efforts of the Europeans led by Starmer and Macron to sabotage the peace talks and continue the war.

Chancellor-to-be Merz’s unfortunate remark in the Bundestag a couple of days ago that ‘Germany is Back’ reminds us that what we are witnessing on the Continent is a reconfiguration of the Nazi-led anti-Russian coalition of WWII.  And what we may soon witness is a rebirth of the US-Russian alliance against that coalition.

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

„Judging Freedom“-Ausgabe vom 19. März: Putin und der Waffenstillstand

Das heutige Gespräch mit Judge Napolitano war eine ideale Gelegenheit, die Zusammenhänge zwischen Donald Trumps grünem Licht für Netanjahu zur Wiederaufnahme der Bombenangriffe auf Gaza und seiner eigenen Anweisung an US-Flugzeuge, die Huthis zu bombardieren, einerseits und seinen laufenden Verhandlungen mit Wladimir Putin zur Beendigung des Krieges in der Ukraine und zur Wiederherstellung kooperativer Beziehungen andererseits zu untersuchen.

Ja, was Trump im Nahen Osten tut, ist zynisch und er hat Blut an den Händen. Er könnte jedoch durchaus argumentieren, dass die von ihm verursachten Todesfälle ein sehr geringer Preis für die Milliarden von Menschenleben sind, die er retten wird, indem er uns vor den Risiken eines Dritten Weltkriegs bewahrt. Ich frage die Community, ob sie damit einverstanden ist, der Vermeidung einer atomaren Vernichtung Vorrang einzuräumen, was Trump bewusst tut.

Was haben Putin und Trump am Telefon besprochen? Ich wette, dass ein großes Thema war, wie beide auf die Bemühungen der Europäer unter der Führung von Starmer und Macron reagieren werden, die Friedensgespräche zu sabotieren und den Krieg fortzusetzen.

Die unglückliche Bemerkung des künftigen Kanzlers Merz im Bundestag vor ein paar Tagen, dass „Deutschland wieder da ist“, erinnert uns daran, dass wir auf dem Kontinent eine Neukonfiguration der von den Nazis geführten antirussischen Koalition des Zweiten Weltkriegs erleben. Und was wir vielleicht bald erleben werden, ist eine Wiedergeburt der amerikanisch-russischen Allianz gegen diese Koalition.

Sputnik International on Emmanuel Macron’s bid to make the French force de frappe Europe’s nuclear umbrella

I point out to the generally unmentioned reason for Emmanuel Macron’s offer to provide a nuclear umbrella for all of Europe to replace the American nuclear umbrella, which no longer can be counted upon. That reason is to collect financial contributions from other European Member States in order to update and greatly expand the rather pitiful nuclear arms that French currently posseses

https://sputnikglobe.com/20250318/clout-and-money-primary-objectives-of-macrons-nuclear-posturing-1121651046.html

Why alternative media are ‘down’ on Trump

It never ceases to amaze me how my colleagues in the non-mainstream media express unqualified negativity towards Donald Trump.

Trump’s ‘green light’ to Israel to resume aerial bombardment of Gaza to force Hamas to accept its revised terms of Phase 2 of the cease-fire is taken as proof that Trump is wedded to the Israeli lobby and to the Zionist contributors to his re-election fund.

Trump’s attack on the Houthis and belligerent threats directed at Iran, as the Houthi’s sponsor, are seen as proof of continuation of the ‘forever wars’ legacy of the Democrats.

Moreover, Trump’s selection of Marco Rubio as Secretary State shows his insensitivity to competence for one of the most important posts in his administration.  Rubio is a former Neocon, has held positions with respect to Russia that are diametrically opposed to those attributed to his boss. He is a lightweight, unable to deal as an equal with the likes of Russia’s Sergei Lavrov. His inexperience was most recently demonstrated by his signing in Jedda with the Ukrainians a draft cease-fire agreement which he intended to impose on the Russians, notwithstanding their stated opposition to any such flimsy construct.

                                                                       *****

I do not deny that the aforementioned events do not look good. However, I insist that it is a gross mistake to take them in isolation, on their own merits and to ignore the Big Picture in which Trump is in a titanic struggle with the Deep State at home and with its collaborators abroad, in France, Britain, Germany and the European Institutions who are dead set on frustrating his remaking of U.S. foreign and military policy at their expense.

One big factor in the underappreciation or miscomprehension of what Trump is doing comes from the underappreciation of his political skills.  These skills should have been crystal clear from the very first days of his administration when he successfully pushed through the confirmation process ALL of his candidates for the top slots in his administration.  All, every one, notwithstanding the obvious fact that each and every one did not conceal their plans to apply a wrecking ball to the institutions and policies that had become the bedrock of the U.S. government over the past 30 if not past 80 years.

Was this success in the confirmation votes just the result of the outstanding merits of the candidates and of their brilliant testimony in tough hearings?  Of course not. It was the direct result of Trump’s marshalling his political skills, calling in chits, i.e. IOUs, issuing warnings of hell to pay in the next electoral cycle if he were to be defied.

And why are my peers so unwilling to acknowledge Trump as a very successful wheeler-dealer on Capitol Hill, the likes of whom we have not seen since Lyndon Johnson?  Because they come back to the platitude that Trump is just a real-estate developer, he is a transactional businessman, full stop.

This is, in its own way, as blind as what mainstream says about Vladimir Putin: that his is just a KGB operative, while ignoring his consummate political skills in holding together, consolidating Russian society with all of its diverse and contradictory components.

These analysts in the alternative media are simply mentally stunted: they cannot admit that others might be more capable, more able to learn and grow than they are.

As someone who has a bit of insider knowledge about how Trump operated within his little circle of top managers in his real estate empire that came from my friendship with his long-time vice president for public relations, Norma Foerderer, I say with full confidence that his policy was always to let his people grow to fill all the space available to them however modest their academic or other formal qualifications.

And, by the way, the selection of Rubio as Secretary of State also was a deeply political decision that went far beyond the issue of Rubio’s loyalty which has been adduced by my peers.  No, it was based on a very different self-evident truth:  as an experienced and respected Senator, Rubio could be counted upon to provide substantial help steering Trump’s controversial foreign policies through Senate voting to successful implementation.

                                                              ****

Let there be no doubt about it: the leaders of Great Britain, France, Germany and the European Union are determined to use every means fair and foul to frustrate Donald Trump’s efforts to bring the Ukraine war to an end, likely by conceding the basic terms set down by Vladimir Putin. They rightly understand that the consequences for the world order in which they have flourished will be dire. The USA will withdraw forces from Europe, will step down from its leadership role in NATO, will accept Russia’s demands for a sphere of influence along its borders and for a reversal of plans to introduce American medium range missiles in Europe. The Europeans will be at one another’s throats over who leads their common defense when the outsiders, the fair and just Americans, are no longer there to keep the peace among them.

One must accept that these European leaders are actively seeking to establish common leverage against Trump with his domestic opponents on both sides of Congress and within what remains of the institutions like the Pentagon, USAID, the State Department that oppose the Trump reforms.

In these circumstances, it should not surprise anyone that Donald Trump has been spreading confusion about his intentions at every turn. He has been prepared to back the warlike policies of the Israel Lobby at least for now, while prioritizing the number one issue before him if he is to remake the World Order from the presently unsustainable global hegemony through alliances to Great Power exercising regional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere and sharing global decision-making with two or three other great powers in a Yalta-2 settlement. That number one issue is to reestablish cooperative relations with Russia.

Why such an interpretation of Trump’s doings is beyond the comprehension of my peers escapes me.

                                                                *****

How likely is Trump to succeed in ending the Ukraine War and normalizing relations with Russia? We will know much better tomorrow after the American and Russian presidents have their telephone conversation later today. Trump, Waltz, Witkoff have all been suggesting that they are closing in on an agreement with the Russians on what the peace treaty should look like, and this is key to winning Russian consent to an immediate cease-fire.

Of course, even if the Americans and the Russians agree, there will be major hurdles to overcome in terms of beating down both the Ukrainian politicians and the European war-mongers.  Zelensky’s best known ‘opponents’ for power are as war mad as he.  Starmer, Macron, Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas are not delusional about the correlation of forces on the battlefield as were Biden, Blinken and Sulivan. They are promoters of insane, utterly unworkable policies, and their removal from office through impeachment for abuse of power or through other legal procedures cannot come soon enough.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Warum alternative Medien Trump „ablehnen“

Es erstaunt mich immer wieder, wie meine Kollegen in den Nicht-Mainstream-Medien ihre uneingeschränkte Negativität gegenüber Donald Trump zum Ausdruck bringen.

Trumps „grünes Licht“ für Israel, die Luftangriffe auf Gaza wieder aufzunehmen, um die Hamas zur Annahme der überarbeiteten Bedingungen für Phase 2 des Waffenstillstands zu zwingen, wird als Beweis dafür angesehen, dass Trump mit der israelischen Lobby und den zionistischen Spendern für seinen Wiederwahlfonds verheiratet ist.

Trumps Angriff auf die Huthis und seine kriegerischen Drohungen gegen den Iran, als Sponsor der Huthis, werden als Beweis für die Fortsetzung des Erbes der „ewigen Kriege“ der Demokraten angesehen.

Darüber hinaus zeige Trumps Wahl von Marco Rubio zum Außenminister, dass er bei der Besetzung eines der wichtigsten Posten in seiner Regierung nicht auf Kompetenz achte. Rubio sei ein ehemaliger Neokonservativer und habe Positionen in Bezug auf Russland eingenommen, die denen seines Chefs diametral entgegengesetzt sind. Er sei ein Leichtgewicht, das nicht in der Lage sei, mit Leuten wie dem Russen Sergej Lawrow auf Augenhöhe zu verhandeln. Seine Unerfahrenheit habe sich zuletzt bei der Unterzeichnung eines Entwurfs für ein Waffenstillstandsabkommen mit den Ukrainern in Dschidda gezeigt, das er den Russen habe aufzwingen wollen, obwohl diese sich ausdrücklich gegen ein derart fadenscheiniges Konstrukt ausgesprachen hätten.

                                                                       *****

Ich leugne nicht, dass die oben genannten Ereignisse nicht gut aussehen. Ich bestehe jedoch darauf, dass es ein grober Fehler ist, sie isoliert und für sich allein zu betrachten und das Gesamtbild zu ignorieren, in dem Trump sich in einem gigantischen Kampf mit dem „Deep State“ im Inland und mit seinen Kollaborateuren im Ausland, in Frankreich, Großbritannien, Deutschland und den europäischen Institutionen befindet, die fest entschlossen sind, seine Neugestaltung der Außen- und Militärpolitik der USA auf ihre Kosten zu vereiteln.

Ein wichtiger Faktor für die Unterschätzung oder das Missverständnis dessen, was Trump tut, ist die Unterschätzung seiner politischen Fähigkeiten. Diese Fähigkeiten hätten bereits in den ersten Tagen seiner Amtszeit deutlich werden müssen, als er den Bestätigungsprozess ALLER seiner Kandidaten für die Spitzenpositionen in seiner Regierung erfolgreich durchgesetzt hat. Alle, jeder einzelne, ungeachtet der offensichtlichen Tatsache, dass nicht jeder seine Pläne verheimlichte, die Institutionen und Richtlinien, die in den letzten 30, wenn nicht sogar 80 Jahren zum Fundament der US-Regierung geworden waren, zu zerschlagen.

War dieser Erfolg bei den Bestätigungswahlen nur das Ergebnis der herausragenden Verdienste der Kandidaten und ihrer brillanten Aussagen in harten Anhörungen? Natürlich nicht. Es war das direkte Ergebnis von Trumps politischem Geschick, das er einsetzte, indem er Schuldscheine, sogenannte IOUs [I owe you – ich schulde Dir etwas], einforderte und für den nächsten Wahlzyklus mit der Hölle drohte, falls man sich ihm widersetzen sollte.

Und warum sind meine Kollegen so wenig bereit, Trump als einen sehr erfolgreichen Geschäftemacher auf dem Capitol Hill anzuerkennen, wie wir ihn seit Lyndon Johnson nicht mehr gesehen haben? Weil sie immer wieder auf die Plattitüde zurückkommen, dass Trump nur ein Immobilienentwickler sei, ein Geschäftsmann, der Geschäfte mache, und damit habe sich’s.

Das ist auf seine eigene Art genauso blind wie das, was der Mainstream über Wladimir Putin sagt: dass er nur ein KGB-Agent sei, während er dessen vollendeten politischen Fähigkeiten ignoriert, die russische Gesellschaft mit all ihren vielfältigen und widersprüchlichen Komponenten zusammenzuhalten und zu festigen.

Diese Analysten in den alternativen Medien sind einfach geistig verkümmert: Sie können nicht zugeben, dass andere fähiger sein könnten, lernfähiger und entwicklungsfähiger als sie selbst.

Als jemand, der aufgrund meiner Freundschaft mit dessen langjährigen Vizepräsidentin für Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, Norma Foerderer, ein wenig Insiderwissen darüber hat, wie Trump innerhalb seines kleinen Kreises von Top-Managern in seinem Immobilienimperium agierte, sage ich mit voller Überzeugung, dass es seine Politik war, seine Leute wachsen zu lassen, damit sie den ihnen zur Verfügung stehenden Raum ausfüllen, wie bescheiden ihre akademischen oder anderen formalen Qualifikationen auch sein mögen.

Übrigens war die Wahl von Rubio zum Außenminister auch eine zutiefst politische Entscheidung, die weit über die Frage von Rubios Loyalität hinausging, die von meinen Kollegen angeführt wurde. Nein, sie basierte auf einer ganz anderen, offensichtlichen Wahrheit: Als erfahrener und angesehener Senator konnte man sich darauf verlassen, dass Rubio bei der Abstimmung im Senat wesentliche Hilfe leisten würde, um Trumps umstrittene Außenpolitik erfolgreich umzusetzen.

                                                              ****

Es besteht kein Zweifel: Die Staats- und Regierungschefs Großbritanniens, Frankreichs, Deutschlands und der Europäischen Union sind entschlossen, Donald Trumps Bemühungen, den Ukraine-Krieg zu beenden, mit allen Mitteln, ob fair oder unfair, zu vereiteln, wahrscheinlich indem sie die von Wladimir Putin festgelegten Grundbedingungen akzeptieren. Sie gehen zu Recht davon aus, dass die Folgen für die Weltordnung, in der sie sich entfalten konnten, verheerend sein werden. Die USA werden ihre Truppen aus Europa abziehen, ihre Führungsrolle in der NATO aufgeben, Russlands Forderungen nach einer Einflusssphäre entlang seiner Grenzen und nach einer Rücknahme der Pläne zur Einführung amerikanischer Mittelstreckenraketen in Europa akzeptieren. Die Europäer werden sich gegenseitig an die Gurgel gehen, wenn es darum geht, wer ihre gemeinsame Verteidigung anführt, wenn die Außenstehenden, die fairen und gerechten Amerikaner, nicht mehr da sind, um den Frieden unter ihnen zu wahren.

Man muss akzeptieren, dass diese europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs aktiv versuchen, mit ihren innenpolitischen Gegnern auf beiden Seiten des Kongresses und innerhalb der verbliebenen Institutionen wie dem Pentagon, USAID und dem Außenministerium, die sich den Trump-Reformen widersetzen, eine gemeinsame Hebelwirkung gegen Trump zu etablieren.

Unter diesen Umständen sollte es niemanden überraschen, dass Donald Trump bei jeder Gelegenheit Verwirrung über seine Absichten stiftet. Er ist bereit, die kriegerische Politik der Israel-Lobby zumindest vorerst zu unterstützen, während er das Thema Nummer eins priorisiert, wenn er die Weltordnung von der derzeit unhaltbaren globalen Hegemonie durch Allianzen mit Großmächten, die regionale Hegemonie in der westlichen Hemisphäre ausüben, neu gestalten und die globale Entscheidungsfindung mit zwei oder drei anderen Großmächten in einer Jalta-2-Regelung teilen will. Dieses Thema Nummer eins ist die Wiederherstellung kooperativer Beziehungen zu Russland.

Warum eine solche Interpretation von Trumps Handeln für meine Kollegen unverständlich ist, ist mir ein Rätsel.

                                                                *****

Wie wahrscheinlich ist es, dass es Trump gelingt, den Ukraine-Krieg zu beenden und die Beziehungen zu Russland zu normalisieren? Wir werden es morgen besser wissen, nachdem der amerikanische und der russische Präsident heute im Laufe des Tages ihr Telefongespräch geführt haben. Trump, Waltz und Witkoff haben alle angedeutet, dass sie kurz vor einer Einigung mit den Russen darüber stehen, wie der Friedensvertrag aussehen soll, und dies ist der Schlüssel, um die Zustimmung Russlands zu einem sofortigen Waffenstillstand zu erhalten.

Selbst wenn sich die Amerikaner und die Russen einig sind, gibt es natürlich noch große Hürden zu überwinden, um sowohl die ukrainischen Politiker als auch die europäischen Kriegstreiber zu besänftigen. Die bekanntesten „Gegner“ Zelenskys, die ebenfalls nach Macht streben, sind genauso kriegslüstern wie er. Starmer, Macron, Ursula von der Leyen und Kaja Kallas machen sich keine Illusionen über das Kräfteverhältnis auf dem Schlachtfeld, wie es Biden, Blinken und Sulivan taten. Sie sind Befürworter einer wahnwitzigen, völlig undurchführbaren Politik, und ihre Amtsenthebung durch Amtsenthebungsverfahren wegen Machtmissbrauchs oder durch andere rechtliche Verfahren kann nicht früh genug erfolgen.

Germany is Back!

Germany is back!

A day or so ago, Germany’s new chancellor Merz addressed supporters with the good news that ‘Germany is Back!’

Why not cheer the boys and girls up with some good news?  If Trump can claim with glee that ‘America is Back’ as he did as from his inauguration speech, why shouldn’t others have the same right to a rosy future via return to the past?

Halt!  Germany is Back!  Which Germany?  Since most of the content of Merz’s new plan to restore growth to the German economy comes from plans to build up production of German armaments so that his country becomes the defense ‘leader’ in Europe, maybe he should have consulted with some sociologists and historians before he opened his mouth. Listening to Merz today, just like listening to the still foaming at the mouth Annalena Baerbock at the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, you hear echoes of a past that the world still shudders from. The Hitlerite past is only 80 years ago and is still in the living memory of people who walk the earth today.

Maybe the German thinking that a page has turned and they are not responsible for the sins of the fathers has gone too far, too fast. 

That thinking was launched by the Alternative for Germany party, which is generally denounced as overly tolerant of Nazism and as extreme Right, though such accusations are very much exaggerated.  This thinking is virtually the only policy plank from AfD that all other parties in Germany have adopted happily.  It is also a very big mistake, since it blinds people like Merz to the resistance in other Europeans to the idea of German military dominance on the Continent.

Macron does not yet say out loud that he is not delighted for France to take orders from a German High Command, but he is contesting the German claims to be defense leader by touting his own readiness to provide a nuclear umbrella for the Allies from his four or whatever nuclear warheads that are ready to go.  There will be more, of course, if Macron can persuade the others to provide the funds for nuclear rearmament that France by itself does not possess.

For their part, the other Europeans to the East, namely the Russians, remember all too well what ‘Germany is Back’ means for them.  Seeing German Leopard tanks in their own Kursk region was an instant reminder that Kursk had been one of the most hotly contested territories, had been the site of the biggest tank battles in WWII.  Germany is Back!  Indeed.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Translation into German below (Andreas Mylaeus)

Deutschland ist zurück!

Vor etwa einem Tag verkündete der neue deutsche Kanzler Merz seinen Anhängern die gute Nachricht: „Deutschland ist zurück!“

Warum nicht auch die Jungen und Mädchen mit guten Nachrichten aufheitern? Wenn Trump mit Freude behaupten kann, dass ‚Amerika zurück ist‘, wie er es in seiner Antrittsrede tat, warum sollten dann nicht auch andere das gleiche Recht auf eine rosige Zukunft durch eine Rückkehr in die Vergangenheit haben?

Halt! (sic!) Deutschland ist zurück! Welches Deutschland? Da der Großteil von Merz’ neuem Plan zur Wiederherstellung des Wachstums der deutschen Wirtschaft aus Plänen zum Aufbau der deutschen Rüstungsproduktion stammt, damit sein Land zum „Verteidigungsführer“ in Europa wird, hätte er vielleicht einige Soziologen und Historiker konsultieren sollen, bevor er den Mund aufmacht. Wenn man Merz heute zuhört, genau wie der immer noch vor Wut schäumenden Annalena Baerbock im deutschen Außenministerium, hört man Echos einer Vergangenheit, vor der die Welt immer noch zurückschreckt. Die Hitler-Vergangenheit liegt erst 80 Jahre zurück und ist immer noch in der lebendigen Erinnerung der Menschen, die heute auf der Erde leben.

Vielleicht ist die deutsche Denkweise, dass ein neues Kapitel aufgeschlagen wurde und man nicht für die Sünden der Väter verantwortlich ist, zu weit gegangen, zu schnell.

Diese Denkweise wurde von der Partei Alternative für Deutschland ins Leben gerufen, die allgemein als zu tolerant gegenüber dem Nationalsozialismus und als rechtsextrem angeprangert wird, obwohl solche Anschuldigungen stark übertrieben sind. Diese Denkweise ist praktisch der einzige politische Standpunkt der AfD, den alle anderen Parteien in Deutschland bereitwillig übernommen haben. Es ist auch ein sehr großer Fehler, da er Menschen wie Merz den Widerstand anderer Europäer gegen die Idee einer deutschen militärischen Dominanz auf dem Kontinent verschleiert.

Macron sagt noch nicht laut, dass er nicht erfreut darüber ist, dass Frankreich Befehle von einem deutschen Oberkommando entgegennimmt, aber er bestreitet den deutschen Anspruch, Verteidigungsführer zu sein, indem er seine eigene Bereitschaft anpreist, den Alliierten einen nuklearen Schutzschild aus seinen vier oder wie vielen auch immer einsatzbereiten Atomsprengköpfen zur Verfügung zu stellen. Es werden natürlich noch mehr werden, wenn Macron die anderen davon überzeugen kann, die Mittel für die nukleare Aufrüstung bereitzustellen, die Frankreich allein nicht besitzt.

Die anderen Europäer im Osten, nämlich die Russen, erinnern sich ihrerseits nur allzu gut daran, was „Deutschland ist zurück“ für sie bedeutet. Als sie deutsche Leopard-Panzer in ihrer eigenen Region Kursk sahen, wurde ihnen sofort bewusst, dass Kursk eines der am heißesten umkämpften Gebiete und Schauplatz der größten Panzerschlachten im Zweiten Weltkrieg war. Deutschland ist zurück! In der Tat.

Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko and Russia’s terms for a cease fire

Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko and Russia’s terms for a cease fire

This morning’s online edition of Le Monde has a front-page article entitled “Direct report on the war in Ukraine: Russia reiterates its conditions for a truce, including the certainty that Ukraine will not join NATO.”  The article attributes this statement to Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, without explaining who he is and what that tells us about the Russian position.

In this brief survey of latest news on the war and prospects for peace negotiations, I open with a remark on Grushko drawn from my own past experience in one-on-one talks with him here in Brussels going back to the days when he served as Russian Ambassador to NATO, a post he held for five years or more. I think in particular of his role in the days just prior to the launch of the Special Military Operation. In mid-January 2022, Grushko held talks in Brussels with NATO leadership relating to the Alliance’s response to the ultimatum that Deputy Minister Ryabkov had sent to Washington and Brussels in mid-December 2021 calling for a roll-back of NATO infrastructure and personnel to the status quo in 1994, i.e., before the waves of NATO expansion eastward. Note that up to the start of the war Russia maintained three fully-staffed embassies in Belgium: the one headed by Grushko accredited to NATO, an embassy accredited to the European Union (unfilled since the start of the war) and an embassy accredited to the Kingdom of Belgium (still active).

It was perfectly clear from my earlier meetings with Grushko that he was in the Liberal camp of Russian diplomatic personnel, very much dedicated to normal relations with the West. He held these hopes to the very end, as I understood when I heard his debriefing on talks with NATO about the Russian ultimatums.  This took place on 13 January in the Russian embassy, Brussels. He still hoped for better times. Soon afterwards Grushko was transferred back to Moscow.

The relevance of this observation is that Grushko’s coming forward a day ago to restate the Russian position on its hard terms for entering into peace negotiations demonstrates that the Ministry, on instructions from Vladimir Putin, is firm and unwavering in its demands, namely neutrality for Ukraine, territorial concessions to acknowledge Russian annexation of the Donbas and Novaya Rossiya oblasts, no foreign troops or infrastructure in Ukraine. One may say that these are non-negotiable and will either be accepted by Trump or the war will go on as long as needed to bring about Ukrainian capitulation. From statements to the press by Waltz, Rubio and Witkoff this past weekend, it appears that Team Trump is working to agree details on these demands with the Russians so that success is within reach, though by no means guaranteed.

Note: I speak here of ‘peace negotiations’ because the Russians are uninterested in a 30-day ceasefire for a variety of reasons I set out below. They insist on entering at once into talks for a durable peace on terms that respect their security concerns.

                                                                                    *****

Last evening’s Vladimir Solovyov talk show had a lot of empty blather from his usual panelists, plus RT director Margarita Simonyan. As usual, Simonyan took the conversation away from the concrete issues of the day, of which there are many, to the cultural realm in her exploration of the very peculiar words of the Ukrainian national hymn which open with “So long as Ukraine has not yet perished…” – which is almost a word for word borrowing from the opening words of the Polish national hymn, and points to a shared culture of death and self-destruction.

In the midst of this idle chatter, there was one outstanding panelist, Colonel Buzhinsky, who is an occasional contributor to the program, bringing real military experience to bear on his analyses. Buzhinsky pointed out that a 30-day truce is utter nonsense.  In practice, it takes a week or more for shooting to stop along a line of contact that runs between 1,000 and 2,000 km. Moreover, a cease-fire must be monitored by personnel on the ground. All talk about how U.S. and other satellites can assure the proper observance of the cease-fire is groundless. There are climatic issues that interfere with satellite imaging; there are night-time conditions among other factors making such remote, hands-off monitoring imperfect and unreliable. And so some agreement about deployment of neutral monitors is essential. As for actual deployment of monitors, it may take up to six months given the vast length of the line of contact.

That is, per Buzhinsky, monitors, not peace-keepers.  He insists that the British plan for sending troops to Ukraine is a subterfuge for de facto establishment of British bases in Ukraine, with likely emphasis on positioning such bases on the Black Sea coast, where they will be a permanent threat to Crimea and to Russian naval assets.  The French also have in mind putting troops into the Odessa area, which they have coveted for more than two centuries. This is all totally unacceptable to Russia.

                                                            *****

Finally, both the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov and News of the Week broadcasts yesterday directed attention to the fate of the several thousand Ukrainian troops who are now completely surrounded in several pockets within the Kursk oblast and face conditions of surrender or annihilation. President Trump has appealed to Vladimir Putin to release them on humanitarian grounds.  However, as last night’s Russian state television made crystal clear by its reportage on the devastation that Ukrainian forces inflicted on Kursk in the seven months of their occupation going back to the August incursion last year, war crimes have been committed against the civilian population including torture and summary execution. Under Russian law these acts are categorized as terrorism and under no circumstances is simple release to be considered. All those who are detained will undergo a filtration process of debriefing to ascertain their degree of involvement in the crimes.

President Putin said clearly to Zelensky:  order these soldiers to lay down their arms and we will spare their lives and treat them decently, otherwise they face destruction.  Zelensky responded yesterday on television that Putin is lying, that his troops are not surrounded and are performing their orders.  Meanwhile, the United States satellite intelligence supports the Russian claims of the entrapment of the Ukrainians, which alone explains Trump’s appeal to Putin.

When you watch the testimony of the Russians in Kursk who spent seven months in their cellars, deprived of heat, electricity, water, food and fearing for their lives when the Ukrainians by night came around to steal whatever they could, you involuntarily wish for the extermination of these Ukrainian bastards.

                                                                         ****

I note in conclusion that in his latest online video talk Professor Nicolai Petro at the University of Rhode Island discusses the likelihood of a military coup in Ukraine overthrowing the Zelensky regime. I have had some joint projects with Petro in the past.  He is one of the best-informed experts on Ukraine, bringing to the table not only academic knowledge but personal knowledge from years of travels in Ukraine, where he also has owned an apartment.

I do not know how close a military coup is to realization, but I do believe that it is the only way out of the Ukrainian mess.  There are NO responsible, level-headed leaders of an opposition in Ukraine who could succeed Zelensky and take the country back to normalcy. The big names – Poroshenko, Tymoshenko – are themselves as insane as Zelensky in their fervor to continue the war to victory over Russia.  Ten years of brain-washing have rendered Ukrainian civil society unable to understand their own interests.  The only hope for the country will be some kind of imposed technocratic leadership, most likely coming from the military where some shreds of realism may yet have survived. It will take several years of exposure to real news reporting, to real consideration of the vast losses of men and wealth that the country has suffered before the country is ready for democracy.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Der stellvertretende Außenminister Alexander Grushko und Russlands Bedingungen für einen Waffenstillstand

Die Online-Ausgabe von Le Monde von heute Morgen hat auf der Titelseite einen Artikel mit dem Titel „Direkter Bericht über den Krieg in der Ukraine: Russland bekräftigt seine Bedingungen für einen Waffenstillstand, einschließlich der Gewissheit, dass die Ukraine nicht der NATO beitreten wird.“ Der Artikel schreibt diese Aussage dem stellvertretenden russischen Außenminister Alexander Grushko zu, ohne zu erklären, wer er ist und was uns das über die russische Position sagt.

In dieser kurzen Übersicht über die neuesten Nachrichten zum Krieg und die Aussichten auf Friedensverhandlungen beginne ich mit einer Bemerkung zu Grushko, die auf meinen eigenen Erfahrungen aus Einzelgesprächen mit ihm hier in Brüssel beruht, die bis in die Zeit zurückreichen, als er als russischer Botschafter bei der NATO tätig war, ein Amt, das er fünf Jahre oder länger innehatte. Ich denke insbesondere an seine Rolle in den Tagen unmittelbar vor dem Beginn der militärischen Sonderoperation. Mitte Januar 2022 führte Grushko in Brüssel Gespräche mit der NATO-Führung über die Reaktion des Bündnisses auf das Ultimatum, das der stellvertretende Minister Ryabkov Mitte Dezember 2021 an Washington und Brüssel geschickt hatte und in dem er eine Rückführung der NATO-Infrastruktur und des NATO-Personals auf den Status quo von 1994 forderte, d.h. vor den Wellen der NATO-Osterweiterung. Es ist zu beachten, dass Russland bis zum Beginn des Krieges drei voll besetzte Botschaften in Belgien unterhielt: die von Grushko geleitete, bei der NATO akkreditierte Botschaft, eine bei der Europäischen Union akkreditierte Botschaft (seit Beginn des Krieges unbesetzt) und eine beim Königreich Belgien akkreditierte Botschaft (noch aktiv).

Aus meinen früheren Treffen mit Grushko ging eindeutig hervor, dass er zum liberalen Lager des russischen diplomatischen Personals gehörte und sich sehr für normale Beziehungen zum Westen einsetzte. Er hielt an diesen Hoffnungen bis zum Schluss fest, wie ich verstand, als ich seine Nachbesprechung über die Gespräche mit der NATO über die russischen Ultimaten hörte. Dies fand am 13. Januar in der russischen Botschaft in Brüssel statt. Er hoffte immer noch auf bessere Zeiten. Bald darauf wurde Grushko nach Moskau zurückversetzt.

Die Bedeutung dieser Beobachtung liegt darin, dass Grushkos Auftritt am Vortag, bei dem er die russische Position zu den harten Bedingungen für die Aufnahme von Friedensverhandlungen bekräftigte, zeigt, dass das Ministerium auf Anweisung von Wladimir Putin in seinen Forderungen fest und unerschütterlich ist, nämlich Neutralität für die Ukraine, territoriale Zugeständnisse zur Anerkennung der russischen Annexion der Oblaste Donbas und Nowaja Rossija, keine ausländischen Truppen oder Infrastruktur in der Ukraine. Man könnte sagen, dass diese nicht verhandelbar sind und entweder von Trump akzeptiert werden oder der Krieg so lange andauert, bis die Ukraine kapituliert. Aus den Presseerklärungen von Waltz, Rubio und Witkoff vom vergangenen Wochenende geht hervor, dass das Team Trump daran arbeitet, sich mit den Russen auf Einzelheiten dieser Forderungen zu einigen, sodass ein Erfolg in greifbare Nähe rückt, wenn auch keineswegs garantiert ist.

Anmerkung: Ich spreche hier von „Friedensverhandlungen“, weil die Russen aus verschiedenen Gründen, die ich im Folgenden darlege, kein Interesse an einem 30-tägigen Waffenstillstand haben. Sie bestehen darauf, sofort in Gespräche über einen dauerhaften Frieden einzutreten, und zwar zu Bedingungen, die ihre Sicherheitsbedenken berücksichtigen.

                                                                                    *****

In der Talkshow von Vladimir Solovyov am vergangenen Abend gab es viel leeres Geschwätz von seinen üblichen Diskussionsteilnehmern und der RT-Direktorin Margarita Simonyan. Wie üblich lenkte Simonyan das Gespräch von den konkreten Themen des Tages, von denen es viele gibt, in den kulturellen Bereich, indem sie die sehr eigentümlichen Worte der ukrainischen Nationalhymne untersuchte, die mit „So lange die Ukraine noch nicht untergegangen ist …“ beginnen – was fast eine wörtliche Anlehnung an die Eröffnungsworte der polnischen Nationalhymne ist und auf eine gemeinsame Kultur des Todes und der Selbstzerstörung hinweist.

Inmitten dieses Geschwätzes gab es einen herausragenden Diskussionsteilnehmer, Oberst Buzhinsky, der gelegentlich Beiträge zu der Sendung leistet und seine Analysen auf echte militärische Erfahrung stützt. Buzhinsky wies darauf hin, dass ein 30-tägiger Waffenstillstand völliger Unsinn sei. In der Praxis dauert es eine Woche oder länger, bis die Schießerei entlang einer Kontaktlinie, die zwischen 1.000 und 2.000 km lang ist, eingestellt wird. Darüber hinaus muss ein Waffenstillstand von Personal vor Ort überwacht werden. Alle reden darüber, wie US-amerikanische und andere Satelliten die ordnungsgemäße Einhaltung des Waffenstillstands sicherstellen können, aber das ist grundlos. Es gibt klimatische Probleme, die die Satellitenbildgebung beeinträchtigen; es gibt Nachtbedingungen und andere Faktoren, die eine solche ferngesteuerte, automatische Überwachung unvollkommen und unzuverlässig machen. Daher ist eine Einigung über den Einsatz neutraler Beobachter unerlässlich. Der tatsächliche Einsatz von Beobachtern kann angesichts der enormen Länge der Kontaktlinie bis zu sechs Monate dauern.

Das heißt, laut Buzhinsky, Beobachter und keine Friedenstruppen. Er besteht darauf, dass der britische Plan, Truppen in die Ukraine zu entsenden, ein Vorwand für die de facto Errichtung britischer Stützpunkte in der Ukraine ist, wobei der Schwerpunkt wahrscheinlich auf der Positionierung solcher Stützpunkte an der Schwarzmeerküste liegt, wo sie eine ständige Bedrohung für die Krim und die russischen Marineeinrichtungen darstellen werden. Die Franzosen haben auch vor, Truppen in die Region Odessa zu entsenden, die sie seit mehr als zwei Jahrhunderten begehren. Für Russland ist dies alles völlig inakzeptabel.

                                                            *****

Schließlich lenkten sowohl die Sendung „Abend mit Vladimir Solovyov“ als auch die Sendung „Nachrichten der Woche“ gestern die Aufmerksamkeit auf das Schicksal der mehreren tausend ukrainischen Soldaten, die nun in mehreren Kesseln innerhalb des Oblast Kursk vollständig eingeschlossen sind und vor der Entscheidung stehen, sich zu ergeben oder vernichtet zu werden. Präsident Trump hat Wladimir Putin aufgefordert, sie aus humanitären Gründen freizulassen. Wie das russische Staatsfernsehen gestern Abend in seiner Reportage über die Verwüstungen, die die ukrainischen Streitkräfte in den sieben Monaten ihrer Besetzung von Kursk seit dem Einfall im August letzten Jahres angerichtet haben, jedoch unmissverständlich klarstellte, wurden Kriegsverbrechen gegen die Zivilbevölkerung begangen, darunter Folter und Massenhinrichtungen. Nach russischem Recht werden diese Handlungen als Terrorismus eingestuft und eine einfache Freilassung kommt unter keinen Umständen in Betracht. Alle Inhaftierten werden einem Filterverfahren zur Befragung unterzogen, um den Grad ihrer Beteiligung an den Verbrechen zu ermitteln.

Präsident Putin sagte Zelensky deutlich: „Befehlen Sie diesen Soldaten, ihre Waffen niederzulegen, und wir werden ihr Leben verschonen und sie anständig behandeln, andernfalls droht ihnen die Vernichtung.“ Zelensky antwortete gestern im Fernsehen, dass Putin lügt, dass seine Truppen nicht umzingelt seien und ihre Befehle ausführten. Unterdessen stützen die Satelliteninformationen der Vereinigten Staaten die russischen Behauptungen über die Einkesselung der Ukrainer, was allein Trumps Appell an Putin erklärt.

Wenn man sich die Aussagen der Russen in Kursk ansieht, die sieben Monate lang in ihren Kellern verbracht haben, ohne Heizung, Strom, Wasser, Nahrung und in ständiger Angst um ihr Leben, wenn die Ukrainer nachts kamen, um zu stehlen, was sie konnten, wünscht man sich unwillkürlich die Vernichtung dieser ukrainischen Bastarde.

                                                                         ****

Abschließend möchte ich darauf hinweisen, dass Professor Nicolai Petro von der University of Rhode Island in seinem neuesten Online-Videogespräch die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Militärputsches in der Ukraine erörtert, der das Regime von Selensky stürzen könnte. Ich habe in der Vergangenheit einige gemeinsame Projekte mit Petro durchgeführt. Er ist einer der am besten informierten Experten für die Ukraine und bringt nicht nur akademisches Wissen, sondern auch persönliche Erfahrungen aus jahrelangen Reisen in die Ukraine ein, wo er auch eine Wohnung besaß.

Ich weiß nicht, wie nah ein Militärputsch an der Verwirklichung ist, aber ich glaube, dass dies der einzige Ausweg aus dem ukrainischen Chaos ist. Es gibt KEINE verantwortungsbewussten, besonnenen Oppositionsführer in der Ukraine, die Zelensky nachfolgen und das Land wieder zur Normalität zurückführen könnten. Die großen Namen – Poroschenko, Timoschenko – sind in ihrem Eifer, den Krieg bis zum Sieg über Russland fortzusetzen, selbst genauso wahnsinnig wie Zelensky. Zehn Jahre Gehirnwäsche haben die ukrainische Zivilgesellschaft unfähig gemacht, ihre eigenen Interessen zu verstehen. Die einzige Hoffnung für das Land wird eine Art aufgezwungene technokratische Führung sein, die höchstwahrscheinlich aus dem Militär kommen wird, wo vielleicht noch ein Rest Realismus überlebt hat. Es wird mehrere Jahre dauern, bis das Land bereit für die Demokratie ist, in denen es sich mit echter Berichterstattung auseinandersetzen und die enormen Verluste an Menschenleben und Reichtum, die das Land erlitten hat, wirklich in Betracht ziehen muss.

Transcript of Press TV, Iran, 14 March

Transcript submitted by a reader

https://www.urmedium.net/c/presstv/132998

PressTV: 0:09
Hello and welcome to Spotlight. Iran, China and Russia have called for an end to all of illegal unilateral sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Western countries led by the United States and provoked by the Israeli regime have been pressuring Iran and imposing bans on the country for decades now. Their main pretext in recent years has been Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has constantly proven its good will and proven the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program by fully cooperating with the IAEA and allowing comprehensive inspections of its facilities by the UN agency.

0:43
Now the new US president is trying to increase the pressure even further by using the language of threats, which the leader of the Islamic revolution has strongly condemned and rejected. Let’s discuss that issue and more with our guests on tonight’s Spotlight Edition. We have independent international affairs analyst Gilbert Doctorow joining us from Brussels. And also, executive committee member of the Hamilton Coalition to stop the war, Mr. Ken Stone is joining us from Hamilton, Canada.

1:21
Well, gentlemen, welcome to the program. Let’s start off with Mr. Doctorow in Brussels. Please share with us your views regarding the talks between China, Russia, and Iran in Beijing. The three countries diplomats exchanged views on Iran’s peaceful nuclear program and of course the illegal sanctions imposed on Tehran.

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
I think this has a great symbolic value. Of course it’s not going to change anything in American conduct in the coming days. But it’s a statement that will be important in months to come if, as I expect, Mr. Trump pursues his plans for a reorganization of the governance of the world, from the present management regionally and internationally by coalitions the United States has put together, to a sharing of responsibility with other major powers. By that I mean China and Russia and India. This is likely to come.

2:26
In these circumstances, I would not take any particular statements, accusations, threats, bullying that Mr. Trump has directed against Iran as having any real seriousness. You have to understand that Mr. Trump is in the middle of a massive reform, a wrecking ball against institutions and structures that have been put together in the States for 30, 40 years. He is taking on the deep state directly, going at the jugular.

Mr. Kennedy was murdered for saying just saying a few things that are in line with what Mr. Trump is trying to do now, that is to end the Cold War. Trump has gone beyond lectures at the American University, which is what did in John Kennedy, to actually taking on and firing the people who have been responsible for wars, who have been destructive of democracy all around the world, and who worked for USAID, who worked for the CIA. This is dramatic.

3:37
In this context of a fight to the end that’s going on in the States, Mr. Trump is using language in a way to disarm and to confuse his opponents. Part of that is the bluster and bullying that he has directed at Iran. However, if you look a bit deeper, I think it’s reasonable to expect that Mr. Trump is not in the pocket of Netanyahu, as Joe Biden was.

He is not agreeing to pursue an attack on Iran, which for Mr. Netanyahu is his lifelong ambition. And another example of how in the Middle East, Trump is doing things that are at variance with the rather negative impression he’s made by his remarks about resettling Gaza, was the start of direct talks with Hamas, without the Israelis present. These are things that you have to look at very carefully with a microscope, I understand, because the big picture is all very negative in what he’s doing in the Middle East.

But there are these little hints that give me encouragement that he is not going to be Mr. Joe Biden, that he has no intention of being Genocide Joe, as genocide Donald. So I would be more optimistic. And in this context, what was done in the agreement of Iran, Moscow, and China is very important.

5:19
And also note who was there. Who was the Russian representative? This was Ryabkov. He’s a Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. He’s a tough guy. This is the one who prepared the rollback of NATO that was delivered to Washington and Brussels in December of 2021.

PressTV: 5:38
Ken Stone, Chinese and Russian diplomats have called for the lifting of the quote “unlawful” sanctions imposed against Iran. They reiterated Tehran’s right to peaceful use of nuclear energy. Give us your analysis, please, of the joint statement following the trilateral meeting. An analyst that we spoke to actually earlier here on Press TV believes that this meeting is a clear expression of solidarity with Iran.

Stone: 6:02
I heartily agree with the assessment that the trilateral meeting was a clear expression of solidarity with Iran. After all, both Russia and China are also subject to unilateral and illegal US and Western sanctions, including those from Canada against their countries.

And these sanctions, these unilateral sanctions, are flagrantly illegal, and they are in fact an act of war, and that’s recognized under international law and the United Nations Charter. In Chapter 7, the Charter says that there’s only one body in the world that can apply coercive economic measures, loosely known as economic sanctions against countries, and that is the United Nations Security Council. Any other sanctions that are leveled by countries such as Canada, the UK, the US against countries mostly in the global south, are acts of war.

They are strictly illegal, and they’re used to force compliance on usually poor and weak countries to come in line with US foreign policy, or they even can be used and have been used in the form similar to a medieval siege of creating regime-change in countries, such as in Iraq between the first and second Gulf War, and recently in Syria, where the government of Bashar al-Assad was brought down largely by these economic sanctions, which impoverished the country and put 80 percent of the people food insecure.

7:50
And we know that these sanctions have often killed more people than bullets. For example, in Iraq, 500,000 Iraqi children were killed between the two Gulf Wars by a lack of access to food and medicines, due to these illegal US sanctions. And when she was confronted about this fact, the former foreign minister of the US, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, said it was worth it, the deaths of 500,000 children. So we know that Russia, China, and Iran are smarting from these sanctions, and they have worked very hard to develop means to get around these illegal sanctions, such as the formation of the BRICS and the talks about the creation of alternate monetary and banking systems.

8:51
So the three countries definitely were in solidarity with Iran about the illegal sanctions. They were furthermore, If you want me to continue, I’ll talk about the peaceful uses of– Tehran’s right to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Under the NNPT, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes to the utmost degree and in fact under the treaty other members are obliged, they are obliged to help Iran develop their nuclear program–

PressTV:
Absolutely.

Stone:
–which Iran has benefited from. So I would say that on those two points and on other points, the Russians and the Chinese were a hundred percent in solidarity with Iran.

PressTV: 9:42
Gilbert Doctorow, talking about the sanctions, there were some important points that Mr. Ken Stone brought up. The ill intentions in these sanctions are evident with preventing access to much-needed medicine and treatment for Iranian patients. So the hostilities [were] not just aimed at the government, but ordinary Iranians were suffering as a result of these sanctions. The imposition of US sanctions on a list of other countries, namely Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Lebanon, they’ve had devastating humanitarian consequences. Talk to us more about the aspect of punishing ordinary civilians with these illegal sanctions.

Doctorow: 10:23
Well I think that my co-panelist has touched upon it very well by making reference to Madeleine Albright. There is no humanitarian concern. There is absolute callousness in the levels of the American State Department, USAID, and other institutions that should be concerned about the impact on the general population of such sanctions, but are not.

And this is, of course, it’s part of a much bigger picture. Right now, Iran is doing well not to be under attack from Israeli and American airplanes and rockets. That’s already a positive. It’s good that we can talk about alleviating the pain of the sanctions. The issue before Iran is one of time. Right now, the Trump administration is very preoccupied with finding a settlement of some kind, some kind of ceasefire in Russia.

Mr. Witkoff, who otherwise has responsibility for the Middle East, is particularly engaged right now on that big issue. The Middle East, in a sense of the Gaza situation, is a second major distraction, shall we call it, for the United States. So Iran’s time to get the attention of Mr. Trump and his colleagues is yet to come.

11:49
It is understandable that Iran was officially offended by Trump’s language and lack of dignity. I agree completely with that assessment. However, these are early days, and I do expect that when Trump is able to move on to dealing with Iran, the situation will be improved. That is not to say at once, but we’re very well aware that the issues that the United States is introducing now go well beyond the question of Iran having a nuclear weapons program. The United States’ ambition is to cripple the development of missiles in Iran, to cripple the relationship that Iran has with its fellow members of the resistance, the proxies.

12:38
These are all the most ambitious sides to the Trump administration view of what it can or should achieve in Iran. I don’t think any of it is achievable, but it will take some time before, as I say, the administration can focus its mind on Iran and see the realities.

PressTV:
Ken Stone, there were years of accusations that Iran was seeking to build a nuclear weapon. Then came the JCPOA deal, which resulted in inspections and etc. Then the US pulled out of the deal. Why should the US be trusted? And is Iran right to ask for assurances when the US has shown it can’t be trusted even when it signs deals?

Stone: 13:24
If you want my opinion, I don’t believe the US can be trusted. Under Obama, it obliged Iran to join the JCPOA. It never lived up to its side of the bargain in the JCPOA. The US sanctions were not totally lifted, which was a violation of the agreement. And then along came Trump in 2018 and abrogated the deal altogether, because as Mr. Doctorow has pointed out, Trump wanted to renegotiate the deal and put an end to Iran’s conventional missile program.

But of course, the Iranian government knows full well that the United States of America has never forgiven the people of Iran for rising up in a popular revolution in 1979 and knocking over their puppet, the Shah of Iran, which reduced the hegemony of the US, their power over West Asia considerably. And they have been trying ever since to overthrow the Iranian state.

14:38
And that includes the war that they sponsored by Saddam Hussein that lasted for eight years against Iran and resulted in millions of deaths. And it includes also the fact that Mr. Trump himself ordered the assassination of General Soleimani, an Iranian high commander, a general, while he was on a mission of peace, bringing a document to a meeting in Iraq at which the Saudi Arabians were going to attend in order to build a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which the US and Israel definitely did not want.

15:20
So, I mean, I’m just giving you a couple of examples here. I do not believe the US can be trusted. They have proved that over and over again. And I do believe that the Iranian government should go ahead on using the language of the NNPT and their friendship with Russia and China to improve and expand their peaceful nuclear program.

PressTV: 15:48
Mr. Doctorow, on that note the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei says experience has shown that negotiations with the US have no effect on solving Iran’s problems and that the negotiations with the US are neither wise nor smart nor honourable. Do you see it in that light as well?

Doctorow:
Not exactly. I understand the aggravation, disappointment. You really, disappointment is an element because with the change of administration in Iran, there was hope that an accommodation could be reached with the states, and that was dashed rather quickly. So the ire, the anger over this disappointed hope for a change for the better is perfectly understandable.

16:33
However, nothing is forever. The United States cannot be trusted, but exactly who can be trusted? In this world, the old Russian wisdom that became commonplace internationally under Gorbachev and Reagan, that is, trust but verify. That verification is of great importance to ensuring honesty and transparency. And so in the case of Iran’s eventual accommodation with the United States, it will not be the honesty or the integrity, which is doubtful among many American senior politicians.

It will be a question of who is standing by Iran, and this was exhibited by the latest agreements between the Russians, the Chinese, and Iran, and who is going to enforce or monitor the implementation of whatever is agreed. So I would not be so pessimistic, even if at the present moment, the anger is real and justified.

PressTV: 17:36
Ken Stone, would you like to respond to that?

Stone:
I’d like to say that Donald Trump’s approach to Iran is wrong-headed and will have the opposite effect–

PressTV:
Yes.

Stone:
–of his intention to bring some kind of rapprochement or understanding or rejuvenation of the JCPOA to fruition. When you come into power and reinstall your maximum pressure campaign, you know, sanctioning every tree and every street in the country and threatening force against the country, a proud country such as Iran, you are going to get exactly the opposite effect that you are nominally aiming for.

18:28
And so I think that it will backfire on the US. I would suggest that if the US wants to achieve friendship with Iran, the thing that he should do first is to remove all the US sanctions on Iran and cease all the hybrid war that’s been going on between the US, from the US point of view, against Iran. And I’m talking about here the NGOs that operate in, or have operated to try and bring about disturbances and regime change in Iran, about other coercive economic measures that the US government is using against Iran.

19:19
And instead show that he’s serious about peace and the fact that he wants to see Iran not have a nuclear weapon by exerting what Qatar, six days ago, I think, called for, the government of Qatar. And they said Israel should be subjected to all the provisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It should have to declare the nuclear weapons stockpile it has built up with the help of France and the United States over the past 50 years. And it should be subject to inspections, very intense inspections the way Iran was during the period of the JCPOA.

20:12
So I think his whole approach is backwards, and it will end in failure or in war. And the war with Iran would be disastrous. It would probably lead to a regional conflict between West Asia and maybe a world war.

PressTV:
You meant to say Iran, you said Iraq, Mr. Ken Stone. Anyhow.

Stone:
Sorry.

PressTV: 20:38
Yeah, no problem. Mr. Doctorow, some important points brought up there by Mr Stone; I want you to address all of them as we wrap up the show. Your thoughts on this approach riddled with military threats by Donald Trump coupled with those of the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu against Iran.

Ayatollah Khamenei has warned that Iran is prepared to deliver a decisive response. Also on a separate note, Mr. Stone mentioned the sheer hypocrisy regarding the Israeli regime which evades the NPT, it evades cooperation with the IAEA, has openly admitted to nuclear sabotage, terrorism, and assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, and of course, assassination of many other figures, which we don’t have time to really cover right now.

Doctorow: 21:25
The difference between me and Mr. Stone is that he is taking Donald Trump’s words at face value. I don’t. I played at the beginning of this. My point is that Trump is involved in a titanic struggle to cut down the deep state and to end those forces within the American institutions that have been promoting war globally, and a cold war with Russia and with China. This means that he has a great many enemies, and he is using confusion as a tool to neutralize his enemies. They don’t know what he’s doing.

22:07
When he made these obnoxious remarks about Iran, was he addressing Iran or was he addressing the people on Capitol Hill who otherwise give him a lot of trouble? I think it was the latter. I think he was trying to shut them up by feeding them this line about Iran when he has no intention of following through on it. Give him time.

I follow closely what he’s doing in Russia. And most everyone, all peers of mine, are completely confused by what he’s trying to do. I think I’m not confused. I think I understand that he is working in contradictions from day to day just to shut everybody up while he gets to the main points that will lead to success.

22:55
So this is his modus operandi. It is not normal. It is not what academically-minded people expect, like Mr. Stone, like myself in general, and people around me. We think of people who behave in a more transparent way. Mr. Trump’s strength is not transparency. It’s confusion; and look at what he does, not what he says.

PressTV: 23:21
Okay, I’m going to have to just to continue with the points, I’m going to have to disagree with you there, Mr. Doctorow, because of looking at the decades of US animosity towards Iran and Washington’s anti-Iran policies. But regardless of that, also, if you may talk to us about this hypocrisy that we’re seeing towards the Israeli regime, which I just mentioned, they evade the NPT, they’ve evaded cooperation with the IAEA, and of course, all the admissions of nuclear sabotage, terrorism and etc.

Doctorow:
Is that for me?

PressTV:
Yes.

Docrorow: 23:59
OK, look, the question of hypocrisy that the United States under Trump today vis-a-vis Israel, the relations with Israel are, I am certain, not what they appear to be. We know where Joe Biden was. He was a hundred percent in the pocket of Netanyahu. That was a personal issue.

In general, there’s a lively debate in the States, particularly in the off mainstream, my peers, over whether the Israel is the tail that is wagging the dog or whether Washington is the head that is wagging Israel, the tail. That is an open question. And the two sides of this issue are being debated by people who are quite serious and quite experienced. There’s no answer to it. But I would say right now that more likely Mr. Trump is not a continuation of Joe Biden, that he is not a great fan of Netanyahu. And so give it some time.

25:03
All right. Sorry, sir. We’re going to have to leave it there. We’re short of, fresh out of time for tonight’s show. Independent international affairs analyst Gilbert Doctorow, joining us from Brussels; and also Executive Committee member of the Hamilton Coalition to Stop the War, Mr. Ken Stone. Joining us from Hamilton, Canada. Gentlemen, thank you for contributing to tonight’s show. And also a special thanks to our viewers for staying with us on tonight’s program.

25:22
It’s good night for now. See you next time.

Transcript of News X ‘Big Debate’ on Ukraine cease fire

Transcript submitted by a reader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu8Yy9Vh5Y4

Rishab Gulati, NewsX: 0:04
Let’s refocus, because we are in times that seem to be showing us a ray of hope after a conflict in Ukraine that has gone on for months that have turned into years. Is there a possibility of an equitable ceasefire agreement that leads to a lasting peace? It’s a loaded question, because not only emotions, passions and life and death have been at stake; but grand geopolitics in what is already a new cold war have to play themselves out as well.

Joining us on the broadcast to discuss this further is Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary of India. Ambassador Pradeep Kapur, Gilbert Doctorow and Professor Madhav Nalapat will also be joining us shortly. Ambassador Sibal, let me begin with you. What is your assessment of what is taking place in the conversation in Saudi Arabia, sir?

Sibal: 1:02
Well, I think the United States is trying to put immediate pressure on Russia to positively respond to the so-called agreement with Zelensky or Ukraine to accept a 30-day ceasefire. Now, if you see the narrative is that the ball is in Putin’s court or Russia’s court. Now, Putin yesterday has in his press conference with Lukashenko spelt out what the concerns of Russia are. And if you have heard that, I think what he has said makes sense and it is very legitimate: that the ceasefire cannot just be declared unless it is embedded in a proper discussion on what happens on the ground and what precautions and measures are going to be taken to ensure a proper implementation of the ceasefire.

2:17
Now as you know the ceasefire proposal has come at a moment when Zelensky has lost virtually his trump card in Kursk. He was all this time saying that this will give him a card to play in negotiations, in terms of exchanging territory with Russia, where Russia gives him whatever he seeks in the regions which have been annexed by Russia, and in return for a withdrawal from Kursk. But that card has been lost, and there is now a danger that Russia may actually go beyond Kursk and actually create, try to create a buffer zone in the future. So, there is need for an immediate ceasefire so far as Zelensky is concerned.

3:11
But there are other issues which are very, very important from the Russian point of view, purely logically. The Europeans have made it very clear that they are going to support Ukraine to the hilt. They will give him all the arms and aid that he needs. They have joined together in various ways. They have held a meeting of the 34 chiefs of staff of NATO to do brainstorming on how to support Ukraine. The European Union has talked about 850 billion dollars to be spent over the next few years by the European Union to rearm themselves.

3:57
And I heard the British Prime Minister say yesterday on television, which seemed a little odd, that Russia is threatening UK in land, water and air and in the streets of the UK. Now this narrative is being spread that if Ukraine is, if Russia wins in Ukraine then the future security of the European Union is [uncertain].

Now, European Union and the United States are working at cross purposes. And Russia cannot ignore what is happening on the ground in terms of what the Europeans are doing. So, they have to have a lot of clarity in terms of a future peace process. And that is where the matters are. I think it is going to be a very difficult process as the gap in the position of the two sides is very wide. And–

NewsX:
OK, so Ambassador Sibal, so the Trump administration wants the ceasefire to happen. They are not mincing words upon it; they are saying there has to be a ceasefire. Russia says we are cautiously optimistic but we do not want the Ukrainians simply to use the ceasefire to rearm. The Europeans … how much of it is rhetoric, gamesmanship, or do you actually think that Europe is going to take a different position to the Americans fundamentally?

Sibal: 5:19
For the time being, yes. Now, what the credibility of this [is], is a matter of judgment. There are people who say that at the end of the day, Europe has been used to US security cover and its defenses have been relatively neglected. And to rebuild them in any relevant time frame to the Ukraine conflict is not on the cards. You can’t set up a huge defense industry overnight. It’ll take years. And on top of that, who will then lead Europe in terms of defense?

Will it be Von der Leyen in Brussels? Will it be France? Because President Macron has been extremely active in this regard. So there are a lot of divisions within Europe. Do they have a joint armed forces? Do they have a joint command? Who will then actually man the various commands? So these are– the point is that the Europeans are putting a lot of pressure on United States and putting a spanner in the works as much as they can, so that the entente between USA and Russia under Trump can be delayed.

6:31
The Europeans from a certain point of view are not wrong that look it’s a question of peace in Europe, and you cannot then decide on peace in Europe without involving the Europeans. But what the Americans are saying is, “Well for three years you were involved in this, and what has come of it? You’ve not been able to solve it, so why [do you] at this stage want to come into the process?”

NewsX:
After all that has been–

Sibal:
One important last thing.

NewsX:
Yes.

Sibal
That the Europeans are determined to send their peacekeepers, French and the British have agreed to that, on the ground after a peace solution of sorts. Russia has categorically rejected that time and again. This is going to be a big, big issue in the future.

NewsX: 7:18
Can Volodymyr Zelensky sit [at] a table with Putin or his representative? Is that possible, sir, or does a ceasefire or eventual peace deal in a sense mean that there has to be a change of guard in Ukraine?

Sibal:
Two things. One: Zelensky passed a decree that there cannot be any negotiation with Russia so long as Putin is in charge. Putin in turn has said that Zelensky is illegitimate and the power now lies with the Ukrainian parliament. And therefore there should be a re-election, election in Ukraine to decide on who would be, which would be the legitimate government. Now, Ukraine despite all the peace talks has not undone this decree.

8:06
If Zelensky was to undo the decree, it would be a huge political setback for him domestically. So, he is not going to do that. So, there are a lot of weaknesses in the situation with regard to the legality of the peace process, because Putin has said that don’t be in a situation where I sign an agreement with the government which is not legitimate, and a subsequent government may actually take this as a reason for not honoring the agreement.

NewsX: 8:35
Okay.

Sibal:
So, there are lots of difficulties ahead of all sorts. So, I can’t see Zelensky sitting personally together with the Russians.

NewsX: 8:45
Okay. As you are well aware, sir, Vladimir Putin has specifically mentioned Prime Minister Modi in, while talking about a potential ceasefire. What role can India still play other than that of a well-wisher?

Sibal:
–in which he made this statement, He didn’t want to give credit only to Trump to try and broker some kind of peace in Ukraine. He said that other leaders of other countries have also spent a lot of their time in trying to address this issue. And he mentioned our Prime Minister, he mentioned Xi Jinping, he mentioned Lula and he mentioned South Africa.

9:28
But there is a nuance here, if you want to read it that way, that if and when the issue of peacekeepers has to be decided, Russia would be totally against the idea of European peacekeepers, but these countries, if they so choose, they can actually be part of peacekeepers or peace monitors or whatever. I don’t think we like that word “peacekeepers” because that means you can use violence. But peace monitors on the ground. It is said in that context rather than asking for these countries to mediate. I don’t think so that was his intention.

NewsX: 10:06
We have under UN mandate deployed peace monitors and peacekeepers before, sir. Should it be open for consideration by us if the offer was to come?

Sibal:
Yes. If there is a UN resolution, then we should accept our responsibility. And in fact both sides would be quite happy if countries like India were on the ground, because we maintained a neutral stance. We have a credibility with both sides. We have actually not been mediating, but we have been passing messages to and fro between President Putin and President Zelensky.

Our national security advisor actually went all the way to Moscow to brief President Putin on the conversations our prime minister had with the president Zelensky. So, that credibility is there. So, our position has always been that it has to be part of a UN sanctioned peace keeping move not in any other format.

NewsX: 11:06
Okay, Kanwal Sibal, thank you for joining us with your thoughts. Let me open this up to Professor Nalapat. Professor Nalapat, “cautiously optimistic”, what can actually be achieved? Are we to assume that if the Trump administration is pretty adamant on the ceasefire that per force it will somehow happen.

Nalapat:
Look, I am bit surprised Trump has gone 180 degrees from his earliest months on peace in Ukraine. And frankly both he and vice president Vance clearly recognized Zelensky has a personal interest in keeping the war going and Russia has got a very long history of broken agreements with the western world and Ukraine. Look at Minsk 1, September 14, 2014. The Russians signed it in good faith. Very soon the Ukrainians broke it.

12:04
Then you had Minsk 2 in 2015. Again the Russians signed in good faith, February 2015. But again it is broken. Then in 2022 Prime Minister Modi in press together with Vladimir Putin said it is a time for peace and Putin would have agreed. Nothing happened.

I mean that particular effort was sabotaged by Boris Johnson for his own political reasons. He wanted to survive and President Biden for whatever reason. I mean Biden has always had a soft corner for the Ukrainians. So the fact is that Trump has completely changed his original plan, which was essentially, you know, a pull out of weapons. Now he said I am going to flood Ukraine with weapons.

12:54
Now, that is not going to go down very well with President Putin. Now, you know, and supplies to Ukraine will continue. So, what happens? It is another Minsk 1 or 2 and another 2022 in which Ukraine gets a whole month to rearm and replenish its depleted soldiers and have a ceasefire when the Russians are winning on all fronts. There is nothing in this deal that will attract the Russians and I will be very surprised if Putin agrees to it.

My surprise frankly is that Trump has completely changed his original position on Ukraine peace as a candidate and then as a president and he has now adopted a line which is very favorable to Zelensky. And every single European leader who is for the war has been cheering this. So, I would like to say, I think this is quite a change in tone, a 180 degree change in position. I cannot see Russia agreeing to this kind of a quote unquote deal.

NewsX: 14:02
Okay, Shun. Gilbert Doctorow, what do you make of what is going on?

Doctorow:
When you repeated what is commonly said now, that the ball is in the Russian court, that’s dead wrong. The ball is in the American court. And there may yet be a deal over a ceasefire, but it has nothing to do with anything that mainstream is now discussing. It has to do with what you and me and everyone else doesn’t really know fully, because it’s going on behind closed doors. It is what Witkoff was doing yesterday in Moscow.

14:40
And what we’re talking about is, again, to go back to the start of this discussion when you mentioned the new Cold War. It’s about ending the new Cold War. That is what the Russians want. And everything else is details. The Russians’ position, which CNN tells us has been changed and has become an obstacle, is nonsense.

The Russian position today is exactly what President Putin declared very precisely when he addressed the Russian ambassadors in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in June of 2024. It is we will stop fighting at once if the Ukrainians remove their troops from the four oblasts, regions, which have been integrated into the Russian Federation. It is that Ukraine be neutral. It is that Ukraine not allow any foreign military installations on its territory.

15:36
These are unchanged conditions. They are not making the situation worse today. They’re simply reiterating why Russia got into the war to start. And Russia will not leave the war if these issues are not addressed. I believe they are being addressed quietly behind closed doors as is normal diplomacy.

The fact that we do not know the details, well that’s the way life works. I am not bothered by it. I don’t think it is a hindrance, and I think it is premature to draw any conclusions on whether Donald Trump’s team knows what they are doing or not. I tend to believe that they know what they are doing.

NewsX: 16:13
OK. Ambassador Kapur, it has now been reiterated every time Donald Trump speaks about Ukraine that had he been president, there would have been no war. And the reasons the war happened and one can suspect, that Ukraine was driven to war perhaps against its own best interests with rhetoric and promises. many of which did not come to fruition, like joining NATO and joining the European Union. Is it your assessment that if the American administration wants it to happen regardless of what the Europeans think or Zelensky think it probably will happen?

Kapur:
Well, I think it’s become very complicated over the last few years with so many players, with so many different parameters, with so many different interests, so many vested interests involved and the change of administration here. As far as I can see currently, Donald Trump has a tremendous interest to make sure that the war comes to a close, beginning with the ceasefire, of course. And he put a lot of pressure initially on Zelensky because Zelensky was quite adamant in terms of, you know, security umbrella, in terms of the NATO membership, etc., etc., in terms of getting his territory back. So he had certain conditions, including not to negotiate with Putin, etc., which were quite absurd, to say the very least.

17:56
And Trump realized that, and he had to push Zelensky into a very difficult corner for him to understand that what he was talking was not tenable at all. And thereafter, I think there was a lot of pressure internally in Ukraine, through the parliament, through the polity, through the, you know, common man that what Zelensky was saying was absolutely unachievable. And they would need to change their stance completely, which they did.

Now, once Trump has achieved that, he wants Russia also to become a little bit more malleable in terms of, you know, threatening Russia, giving arms to Ukraine, giving them the intel to be able to attack the Russian forces. So, this is all a ploy to bring Russia in a sort of a slightly comfortable negotiating position onto the table.

18:49
Now Russian demands, as some of the other panelists have mentioned, have been very clear, not from 25, not from 2024, not from 2023, but from maybe 1945 onwards after the Second World War. After that they had also at some stages even tried to become members of NATO. Then they had asked the western world not to push NATO towards its borders. After the breakup of the USSR, the NATO has actively pushed, you know, NATO towards the Russian border incorporating more and more East European countries into NATO. So, they feel a geostrategic threat to their own security.

NewsX: 19:34
Okay. But, Ambassador Kapur, I have to ask you this. What is, why would a Donald Trump administration want peace in Ukraine? It seems to be serving an American purpose, you keep Russia busy, Russia seems to be friends with China, which is your current number one problem, You are keeping them tied down there, you know, you test out the American field artillery and equipment and the new warfare on somebody else’s people, Russians and Ukrainians die. Americans are not, do not have boots on the ground, they are not dying. So why, why other than peace being a reward unto itself, what would be the American interest in ending this?

Kapur: 20:10
Well, the American interest meaning currently the president being Donald Trump, his interests are that he prospers more under peace. His absolute paradigm is that if you have peace, there is more economic progress, there is development, there is real estate, you know, which becomes more profitable, a real estate sector, which he has been very, very good at in his past. So he is definitely not favoring the military-industrial complex here.

He is not favoring the deep state. The deep state, the military-industrial complex, which were profiting phenomenally from this war, were the ones who were pushing for the war to continue for longer. Whereas, the economies of Europe, the economy of Ukraine, the economy of Russia, of US have all been impacted very very badly. So, Donald Trump wants to make sure that the US economy does well. For the US economy to do well, the war has to stop.

NewsX: 21:09
Okay, now we will get Gilbert Doctorow back in. Gilbert Doctorow, is it possible? Is it, are we simply, you know, being drowned out in rhetoric, which is public positioning, which is part of the process, but actually everybody is sick of it and wants it to end?

Doctorow:
The question of where’s the substance? I would like to explain my view that the substance is a new world order. Mr. Trump has been criticized for being isolationist, for wanting to take the United States out of NATO, for being inward-looking. I think this is dead wrong. Mr. Trump is an internationalist, but he has a different vision of what that constitutes from what has been operating in the United States for the last 30, 40 years or more.

22:13
His view is to establish a Yalta 2. That is to say a world that is governed jointly by major powers and not by alliances. The major powers in this world are four, and India is one of them. I believe that Donald Trump wants to have a personal accommodation with Mr. Putin, with Mr. Xi, and with Mr. Modi, and that these four countries will be looking after global peace and will mediate their own differences or differing interests in parts of the world peacefully at a single table. I think this first Yalta 2 meeting may take place on May 9th in Moscow, when both Xi and Modi are there. And I think that Trump will do everything possible to catch up with the other three.

NewsX; 23:17
All right. Professor Nalapat, Is it possible because the complexity of global issues [is] very large, can we disaggregate them? Because if we assume that the Americans under Joe Biden pulled out of Afghanistan with great rapidity, left everything there, immediately after a war started in Ukraine.

Subsequently a war started happening in Gaza, where we are told funding came from Iran. Iran is not full of money so they get funding from China. It’s a very complex global affair. Are we assuming that whatever points had to be scored in Ukraine and whatever intents and purposes this war was serving to whoever has now concluded and actually all sides want peace?

Nalapat: 24:03
I would say that’s really not the side, not what exactly the Europeans are talking about. They’re talking about Ukraine continuing the war until there is a surrender by Russia. And frankly, I mean, ever since, you know, ever since 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, the US and other countries have been trying to see if Russian Federation will collapse. And unfortunately for them, and I think fortunately for Russia, it hasn’t happened yet. I am not very optimistic about China being part of that architecture. India, Russia, US, definitely. As for Europe, Europe had better get on board.

24:51
The fact of the matter is, but the point is that this particular peace deal is an unconditional deal from, I mean, I’m only going by television reports. I don’t know what the behind-the-scenes conversations are or were, But the reality is what Trump is asking is an immediate ceasefire of 30 days, and after that everything is again up in the air. That’s exactly what Zelensky wants. He’s gasping for air. He’s losing practically the whole of Kursk. His forces are retreating across all fronts.

25:25
Given that situation, I am rather, I do not believe that President Putin is going to agree to this kind of a peace in a hurry. And my surprise is frankly that Donald Trump is even suggesting it, because that is not his earlier position vis-a-vis Russia. He is quite correct that Russia has to be a friend of the US and the reason for that is China. Just as Nixon said China has to be a friend and the reason for that was Soviet Union.

So the reason for Russia and America becoming friends because it’s a nightmare for the Chinese, complete nightmare. India and Russia are already good friends and the Prime Minister Modi. So, this nightmare, it’s a nightmare scenario for [the] Chinese. And frankly, given the security choices of President Trump, I am not at all sure that he would like to see China at the table. Rather, I think you know he would like to isolate China and thereby win the new Cold War. It is not between Russia and the US, but between the US and China.

NewsX: 26:38
All right, it is reasonable to still assess three years later that this war should not have started. In many reasons, it has started under false pretext on promises made by those who have not delivered. Russians have died and Ukrainians have died in the tens of thousands. And what exactly we have to show for it three years later is absolutely nothing other than a continuing stalemate. There are global considerations which are far larger than all of us at play over here. But does everybody want peace in Ukraine at this moment? Difficult one to answer.

We are probably closer than we have been to a ceasefire or a peace deal than in the last 6 or 8 months, but who knows whether the next few weeks can deliver one. My thanks to my guests for having this conversation.

27:30
We take a break. See you in a minute.