Transcript of ‘Judging Freedom,’ 21 May edition

Transcript submitted by a reader

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iAqvd-rKi4

Napolitano: 0:32
Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for “Judging Freedom”. Today is Wednesday, May 21st, 2025. Professor Gilbert Doctorow joins us now. Professor Doctorow, thank you very much for your time, of course.

Do you see in the reports of the negotiations, whether it’s Donald Trump on the phone or whether it’s Steve Witkoff in Vladimir Putin’s office, that the Americans understand the Russian mentality on things like land areas that have been Russian for 300 years, the attitude about a ceasefire while war is going on. Do the Americans grasp that?

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
Well, the Americans are a different group. If you take Rubio and General Kellogg, of course, they may be more obtuse, and I’m not sure if they’re interested in understanding. But with respect to Donald Trump and to Steve Witkoff and others in his circle, I have little doubt that they understand what’s going on very well.

And the peculiarities that we’ve spoken about in past chats, or that I’ve written about separately, are– the peculiarities in the behavior of Donald Trump may be largely explained by his attempts to ward off and to keep disoriented and away from his back the strong opposition that he faces, of course, within all the Democrats, within a portion of the Republicans on Capitol Hill and with all of the main leaders in the European Union.

2:14
What the Russians are talking about is a threat to Trump of precisely the combination of his domestic opposition in the Democratic Party and the leaders of this coalition of the willing in Western Europe.

Napolitano:
Well, the coalition of the willing in Western Europe seems to be aligned with the neocons in the United States. And I wonder if the Russians understand that Trump is hearing different things in each ear. In one ear he hears the neocons. He hears Rubio and Sebastian Gorka and that crowd saying, “Keep up the war, keep using Ukraine as a battering ram, Ukraine can win, Putin can’t last forever.”

And in the other ear, he hears, I’m going to guess it’s Witkoff and the vice president. I don’t know. The vice president says some things in public that are not always the same as what he’s having been reported as saying in private, but it’s more, “Let’s end this now. It was a waste of money. The Russians are going to win. Let’s save lives.”

So he’s hearing opposite things in his ears, and he says opposite things when he talks. Remember how he said he would end the war in 24 hours? What did he learn from this conversation, or what do we know or believe he learned from his conversation with Vladimir Putin on Monday of this week?

Doctorow: 3:48
Well, I wouldn’t worry so much about Trump being confused. Spreading confusion is his game. And as I say, that’s his best policy against his enemies forming a united front and attacking him in a dangerous way. The fact that he has two different sets of views in his immediate advisors or assistants is obviously intentional. It’s not accidental.

He knew whom he was selecting, and he selected people like Rubio for very clear, understandable political reasons to maintain his position in the Senate where anything foreign policy would be heard. He is keeping his enemies off balance by letting them believe what you just said a moment ago, that he follows the recommendations of the last person to have his ear. I don’t believe that there’s anything more to it than precisely that.

Napolitano: 4:45
Do the Russians understand this? Does the Kremlin know of the neocon forces in his immediate circle as well as the, I’ll call them America-Firsters, I don’t know what that means, but let’s just use it as a handle because the president uses that phrase every once in a while, and the America-Firsters in his orbit. Does the Kremlin get that?

Doctorow:
Oh, they get it very well. And they are satisfied, Putin himself is satisfied, that Trump understands the situation and is sympathetic to their security needs. And they give him a long leash, so to speak, to do what he has to do to maintain himself. They believe that he has achieved something which we don’t talk about so much, but that it pays to bring forth in our discussion now.

5:39
The latest Russian analysis you hear on the talk shows of how this talk how this discussion with between Putin and Trump went highlights the fact that Trump has kept the Europeans out of this game. That they were all waiting to speak to him and they were greatly disappointed that after he spoke to Vladimir Putin, he spoke to them all as a group, including in that group Zelensky. None of them had a chance to get his ear separately. And moreover, they seem to have acquiesced in the way the negotiations are going and which Trump addressed in his remarks following the talk with Putin by telephone, namely that the sides, the Ukrainians and the Russians, are in deliberations directly without any intermediaries. Now let’s remember, go back three years, every time the question of peace talks came up at the initiative, of course, of Zelensky and his European friends, it was always in the context of getting 30, 40 countries all together to talk about condemning Russia.

6:51
Russia was not invited to these first talks, and even if it were invited, it would have faced a united, a combination of all of the sympathetic countries to Ukraine and hostile countries to itself. Now the meetings are going one-on-one. And for Russia, that is a very important achievement which Donald Trump facilitated.

Napolitano:
I don’t want to get too much into the weeds, but prior to the conversation, the telephone conversation between President Putin and President Trump, Trump and his people and everybody– not everybody in the West, but the EU leaders– were saying, “Ceasefire first, ceasefire first, negotiations afterwards.” Now we know that that’s not the way the Russians operate at all, going back to the invasion by Napoleon. They’re not going to talk about, they’re not going to stop the fighting, whether it’s offensive or defensive, just to negotiate.

7:51
However, after the conversation between Trump and Putin, President Trump has stopped asking for a ceasefire. Question: can we conclude from this that Vladimir Putin was very clear? Ceasefire as a prelude to negotiations is off the table.

Doctorow:
I think that’s a correct assumption. And I think that has sunk into the thick brains of the Europeans as well, because they have become much quieter about what’s going to happen at the next meetings, what the timetable will be and so forth.

Although Ursula von der Leyen has got her 17th or whatever number package of sanctions ready to roll out, this is all on the sidelines. In the front page, what we see is the Europeans have fallen back. There’s wide anticipation that Trump is going to remove himself, remove the United States from this war. That’s the current expectation, and I believe it will be fulfilled.

8:53
The Europeans are trying to deal with that fact without having to go into a direct attack on Donald Trump. And Trump has managed to detoxify this decision. I have to take my hat off to him, because I was quite critical of his not dealing with this properly, of his spreading confusion. Now I see that his tactic has achieved a certain result.

The Europeans are backing off. They are gracelessly accepting the fact that … the United States is going to withdraw. He’s not doing it in a fit of anger, in a fit of confrontation with Mr. Zelensky. He’s doing it simply saying, “Look, these sides have many issues on the table that you and we don’t understand, and therefore best if we leave them alone to do it themselves.” That is an enormous achievement, and we didn’t see it coming.

Napolitano: 9:48
Do the people in the Kremlin view the United States as a neutral, sincere mediator between Russia and Ukraine or as a co-belligerent with Ukraine against Russia?

Doctorow:
I think it’s the second. Having said that though, they understand that Trump is trying to extricate the United States from this situation, and they are very happy about that. Generally speaking, the review that I heard last night on these talk shows is flattering towards Trump. They are satisfied with it.

At the same time, they are saying clearly, loudly and clearly, that Trump is not a friend of Russia, that Trump is looking after American national interests, period. So there’s no romanticizing this relationship. And yet they are pleased with what Trump has achieved by getting the Europeans out of the act.

Napolitano: 10:52
Here’s President Zelensky on Monday after reports of the Trump-Putin conversation came out and presumably after President Trump addressed EU leaders along with President Zelensky. I’m going to ask you if this is domestic political claptrap or if he really believes it. Chris, cut number three.

Zelenski: [English voice over]
Nobody will withdraw our forces from our territories. It is my constitutional duty, the duty of our military, to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Yes, there are temporarily occupied territories now because of the aggression of such a huge country. It is understood, but we will accept no ultimatums. We will not give away our land, our territories and our people, our homes.

Napolitano: 11:55
Now, all right, you don’t need my opinion, but I need yours.

Doctorow:
I think these are brave words. They will be undone the moment that Donald Trump acts on what he was hinting at the last couple of days and says that this is not his war, this is not America’s war, it’s Europe’s problem. And he hands it over to Europe to solve, assuming that he does what is logical and connect to such a position, and he stops US supply of finance and military materiel. And he refuses Europe the right to buy US equipment for delivery to to Kiev.

If he does that, then Mr. Zelensky will have to eat his words. And he will do that, unless he gets on a plane and leaves the country, which would be, frankly, a better option for him.

Napolitano:
I don’t see how he can avoid getting on the plane and leaving the country, unless he wants to be a martyr. I mean, if he concedes one inch of territory, notwithstanding how realistic it would be for him to do so, how could he possibly expect to stay in office or even alive back in Kiev?

Doctorow:
Well, yes, if he leaves the country, then he can claim that he has done the honorable thing, he has refused to sacrifice his country’s national interests, and he leaves that unpleasant task, that dishonorable task, to anyone who takes power after him. He would then leave in his own eyes as a hero, and possibly as a hero in the eyes of many of his followers today in Ukraine, such as they are. So I see that as a very real possibility. As for the Russians, they definitely want to have a negotiated settlement. Mr. Putin is not saying that just to please the ears of Donald Trump.

Napolitano: 13:52
Very, very interesting. In the meantime, is there going to be a Trump-Putin– well, before I get to that, what will the EU leaders do if Trump turns off the spigot? What will von der Leyen, Merz, Macron, Starmer, Tusk of Poland, what will they do? Will they try to replace American military equipment with their own?

Doctorow:
Oh, they will try. That will give them a few months of breathing space, during which they can write a new script for themselves and explain– some of them, not all of them– why they are extricating their countries from the coalition of the willing and facing the facts that Russia has won the war. I think in a few months that they pretend to provide aid to Ukraine, they will succeed in developing a common narrative that frees them from their guilt of the last three years, or at least tries to. But they will have to come around to the facts that Ukraine is going to go belly up.

Napolitano: 15:06
Are you surprised that there seems to be a sentiment amongst European leaders that Prime Minister Netanyahu and the IDF have gone too far in Gaza, too many innocents killed, too many children starving, too many babies about to die of malnutrition, it’s time to dial it back.

This seems to be an attitude relatively new amongst European leaders. I point out the British Foreign Minister on the floor of the House of Commons and President Macron. I haven’t actually heard anything from von der Leyen or Merz or Starmer on this.

Doctorow:
Just as we spoke a moment ago about the EU taking its time to reposition itself and actually to reverse itself on the Ukraine war, what you have just said indicates the first baby steps in the direction of sanctions and pariah status being given to Israel if it pursues its present genocide in Gaza. They’re not doing a flip-flop from one day to the next.

These very important remarks by Starmer which were flashed over the BBC every 20 minutes, what is he threatening to do? Not to continue to extend the free trade arrangements that they now have, not to sanction Israel. That will be the next baby step. Other European countries are speaking of sanctions. So as a collectivity, the European states will head towards severe penalties for Israel, but not all at once. They’re feeling the ground under their feet.

Napolitano: 16:56
Here’s Prime Minister Netanyahu’s latest, this is two days ago, stating publicly that the IDF intends to take full control of Gaza, which means controlling food, water and medicine for the Gazan babies. Cut number 14.

Netanyahu: [English voice over]
Eventually, we will have an area fully controlled by the IDF, where Gaza’s civilian population can receive aid, while Hamas gets nothing. This is part of the effort to defeat Hamas alongside the intense military pressure and our massive incursion, which is essentially aimed at taking control of all of Gaza and stripping Hamas of any ability to loot humanitarian aid. This is the war plan and the victory plan.

Napolitano; 17:41
I don’t know if Donald Trump wants the IDF to take full control of Gaza. I mean the cynics would say he wants his son-in-law to develop, but the realists would say, “Where are two million people going to go?”

Doctorow:
Well, I think Donald Trump can only handle– not because of his own limitations, but simply the realities of office– I don’t think he can handle two major crises simultaneously with efficiency and equal logic.

The logic is that he would dump Israel. The question is when will be opportune for him to do that? If the Europeans will come in and go from the baby steps I’ve mentioned a minute ago to some real sanctions against Israel, then the United States can begin to make a move. What Netanyahu is talking about, essentially, is going back to where the situation was before Sharon pulled Israel out of Gaza. But doing it in a most violent, repugnant way that flags Israel as a demonic entity to the whole world.

Napolitano: 18:51
Talking about “demonic entity”, here is a former member of the Knesset articulating about the harshest view imaginable on the relationship between the Netanyahu regime and the babies, the children of Gaza. This is stomach churning. It’s in Hebrew, but there’s a translation. Chris, cut number 10.

Moshe Feiglin: 19:19 [English voice over]
Every child in Gaza is the enemy. We are at war with the Gazan entity, the Gazan terror entity, which we ourselves established in Gaza, in Oslo, and in the disengagement. The disengagement that Prime Minister Netanyahu voted in favor of, that is the enemy now. Every such child to whom you are now giving milk in another 15 years will rape your daughters and slaughter your children. We need to conquer Gaza and settle it. And not a single Gazan child should remain there.

Let’s stop telling ourselves this deception, just to score points in this game between pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi. This isn’t about left or right, it’s about winning this war and it’s about justice.

When will we learn? When will we learn?

Napolitano: 20:05
In other words, slaughter the babies. I mean, this attitude should be unacceptable everywhere on the planet.

Doctorow:
Well, justice will be served when that gentleman is facing court charges in the ICC. Of course, the behavior of Netanyahu and his government is monstrous. It’s taken a lot of time, much too long, for European countries to back away from their unqualified support of Israel with a backward view at the Holocaust and Europe’s complicity in the destruction of European Jewry. But we’re reaching that point, that tilting point, when Europe is facing directly what you were just showing on the screen, the awful nature of Netanyahu government, and it’s calling for a tribunal to try its leaders for genocide. We’re coming slowly to that point.

Napolitano: 21:05
As if Trump doesn’t have enough headaches, what is your take on India-Pakistan?

Doctorow:
The United States shares with Russia a basic alignment with India, whereas China is the basic backer of Pakistan. So here is where both Trump and Putin are really in the same camp, regrettably both American and Russian armaments to India have not been as efficient as cutting-edge as what China has supplied to Pakistan. So there was a very big embarrassment on the Indian side for its failure to show its muscle when it was challenged directly to dogfights with the Pakistani Air Force.

22:03
So the United States surely is embarrassed by this. Russia doesn’t talk much about it, but it isn’t exactly their best hour either, that the Chinese force have assisted Pakistan better than United States and Russia have assisted India.

Napolitano:
Before we go, you have a book coming out pretty soon, don’t you?

Doctorow:
Yes, in the next week, this first volume that’s entitled “War Diaries” will be appearing on Amazon and will be available, of course, from all booksellers.

It is– just to be clear about it, my diaries are diaries in a very specific, personal sense. They are these essays that I have been publishing in great volumes over the last three years relating to the war. Essentially, I see the value of this book will be to those who want to follow the evolution of Russian society under the pressures of the war. I am not pretending to be a front-line follower or a military expert on what has been going on in the field, but how this war has changed Russian society, where it started before the special military operation was launched and where it is today. It’s a dramatically different society with different makeup, composition of leadership and elites to come.

23:35
And that is what the virtue of this book is, particularly the essays from my periodic visits to Russia, at a time when all Western journalists had left the country and there was no serious reporting going on.

Napolitano:
Well, the cover’s very enticing, and you’re a gifted writer and observer of the scene. I wish you well on the book. We’ll talk more about it once it’s available. There it is. “War Diaries”. Very optimistic. “Volume 1, the Russia-Ukraine War 2022 to 2023”.

Professor Doctorow, thank you very much for your time, my dear friend. We look forward to seeing you. We have a short week next week, because Monday is a holiday here in the US, but we’ll see you next week.

Doctorow:
OK, look forward to it.

Napolitano:
Thank you. All the best. And coming up later today, some schedule changes. At 1 o’clock, Pepe Escobar; at 2 o’clock, Matt Hoh; at 3 o’clock, Phil Giraldi; at 4 o’clock, Scott Ritter. Aaron Mate moved to tomorrow.

24:39
Judge Napolitano for “Judging Freedom”.

Steve Witkoff’s visit to Petersburg today: what do we know?

In this evening’s 20.00 o’clock main Russian state news program Vesti the number one topic was the day’s business that brought Vladimir Putin to the Northern Capital.

Why St Petersburg? Because it is the home of the Admiralty and is one of the main shipbuilding centers of Russia.

The video showed Putin seated with a dozen or so high-ranking navy officers, with Finance Minister Siluanov and with several other officials discussing the nearly agreed plans not only for large-scale navy shipbuilding (50 + vessels) in coming years of both surface ships and submarines but also for the integration of all navy ships with robotics, meaning unmanned cutters, for real time communication of all vessels with one another and integrated intelligence from satellites.  The only apparent civilian outside of government present at the meeting was Andrei Kostin, the CEO of VTB bank who also is in charge of nearly all Russian shipbuilding, both for military and commercial purposes. As I have said elsewhere, Kostin has eclipsed Herman Gref as Russia’s most visible and trusted banker.

Only a few remarks by Putin were aired but they were weighty. He said that the Russian navy is now 100% modernized and the aim of the talks is to ensure that it remains a world leader in military equipment and technologies in the future, since the navy is an essential part of Russia’s nuclear deterrence.  A week or so ago, Putin authorized the launch of the latest atomic submarine which carries hypersonic Zirkon cruise missiles with 1,000 km range. Readers in London will know what that means and perhaps will report it to Keir Starmer.  This submarine type is now entering serial production.

                                                                         *****

The number two news item this evening was the visit of Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s personal envoy charged with negotiating a cease-fire in Ukraine.  I call out the order of reporting, because at this level nothing is left to chance. Everything has symbolic value.

Nonetheless, it was reported on state television for perhaps ten minutes, while tidbits of further information about the Witkoff visit appeared on Dzen and various other internet sites.

Let’s for a moment look at the tidbits, because they are also indicative of what is afoot.

We know that following his arrival in Petersburg, Witkoff was met by Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russia Foreign Investment Fund with whom he had met a week ago in Washington. Dmitriev is Vladimir Putin’s personal envoy to the talks on ending the Ukraine war and is thus Witkoff’s direct counterpart. The business part of their talks was held in the Grand Hotel Europe, which has been the most distinguished hotel in the city for the past hundred and thirty or more years. It is where Piotr Tchaikowsky spent his first nights in Petersburg when arriving by train from abroad. I can only see in this choice that the Russian hosts wanted to give a personal touch to the visit and to ensure that his time would be concentrated in a very few city blocks in the center.

We also know that Witkoff was accompanied on this trip by his wife and they both, in the company of Dmitriev, did some high level tourism:  they went to the Grand Choral Synagogue and to the St Isaac’s Cathedral. 

The logic of visiting the Synagogue was that tomorrow is the first day of Passover, and as a practicing Jew, Witkoff would surely have been interested in seeing the best and largest synagogue from the days of the tsars, when it stood at the center of the Jewish community of the capital. Not in a bad location, by the way: the Grand Choral Synagogue is just a five-minute walk from the Mariinsky Theater from where it recruited its cantors. Moreover, this synagogue was largely renovated with financial assistance from American philanthropists early in the new millennium.  Of course, the only actual Jews Witkoff is likely to have seen there apart from the chief rabbi would be members of the Israeli diplomatic community for whom it is a home away from home.

The visit to St Isaac’s needs no special explanation. It is the most beautiful church in Petersburg and a defining edifice in the city’s skyline.  It also has on its outer facade scars from the shelling of the city by the Hitlerite Germans during the Siege, a useful reminder of who was who that Messrs Merz and Pistorius would rather have us all forget.

I must ask myself whether Witkoff’s bringing his wife is an indication of the growing warmth of relations and good prospects for the war’s coming to an end with a nudge from Donald Trump. Or is it a premonition that this will be her last opportunity to see the sights of Petersburg before the Wall comes down again?

As of 20.00 o’clock tonight Witkoff was in a meeting with Vladimir Putin in downtown Petersburg. The venue is the Presidential Library (full name: Yeltsin Presidential Library), a place that is virtually never used for high level meetings.  Normally, such a meeting would be held outside the city at the glorious Constantine Palace on the Gulf of Finland.  But perhaps because the Witkoff visit is under time pressure in the hope of its being followed immediately by a direct telephone call between Putin and Trump, it was decided to meet downtown, just near the Admiralty buildings where Putin had had his conference with the naval officials.

Russian journalists assume that the talks between Witkoff and Dmitriev, like the ones between Witkoff and Putin, cover many subjects beyond the confines of the Ukraine war.  They mention, for example, the likelihood that they discussed the situation with respect to Iran and its nuclear program. This, of course, is another of Witkoff’s briefs, and it is an area in which the Russians are doing what they can to calm things down, not least of which by arranging the meeting that Witkoff has tomorrow in Oman with his Iranian counterpart.

                                                                 *****

Given the paucity of information released by the parties so far, any prediction of what comes next in the American-Russian rapprochement is highly risky.  But there is reason to think that Washington and Moscow now have agreed on the general contours of a peace settlement.  It was remarked on Russian television that the meeting of the representatives of both sides in Istanbul last week made good progress on normalization of diplomatic relations.  It now appears that there is a tentative understanding on the return to Russia of its six diplomatic properties that were illegally seized in the waning days of the Obama administration and early in the Trump 1.0 administration.  The Russians will now be allowed to visit the properties to ascertain what damage may have been done to them. If this report is true, it is a very good token of good will from the American side.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)\Was wissen wir über Steve Witkoffs heutigen Besuch in Petersburg?

In der Hauptnachrichtensendung des russischen Staatsfernsehens Vesti war das Topthema heute Abend um 20:00 Uhr die Angelegenheit, die Wladimir Putin in die nördliche Hauptstadt führte.

Warum St. Petersburg? Weil es die Heimat der Admiralität und eines der wichtigsten Schiffbauzentren Russlands ist.

Das Video zeigte Putin, wie er mit etwa einem Dutzend hochrangiger Marineoffiziere, Finanzminister Siluanov und mehreren anderen Beamten zusammensaß und die fast beschlossenen Pläne besprach, nicht nur für den groß angelegten Marineschiffbau (über 50 Schiffe) in den kommenden Jahren, sowohl für Überwasserschiffe als auch für U-Boote, sondern auch für die Integration aller Marineschiffe mit Robotik, d.h. unbemannte Kutter, für die Echtzeit-Kommunikation aller Schiffe untereinander und integrierte Aufklärung durch Satelliten. Der einzige sichtbare Zivilist außerhalb der Regierung, der bei dem Treffen anwesend war, war Andrei Kostin, der CEO der VTB-Bank, der auch für fast den gesamten russischen Schiffbau verantwortlich ist, sowohl für militärische als auch für kommerzielle Zwecke. Wie ich bereits an anderer Stelle gesagt habe, hat Kostin Herman Gref als sichtbarster und vertrauenswürdigster Bankier Russlands in den Schatten gestellt.

Von Putin wurden nur wenige Bemerkungen gemacht, aber diese waren gewichtig. Er sagte, dass die russische Marine nun zu 100 % modernisiert sei und das Ziel der Gespräche darin bestehe, sicherzustellen, dass sie auch in Zukunft eine weltweite Führungsposition in Bezug auf militärische Ausrüstung und Technologien einnehme, da die Marine ein wesentlicher Bestandteil der nuklearen Abschreckung Russlands sei. Vor etwa einer Woche genehmigte Putin den Stapellauf des neuesten Atom-U-Boots, das mit Hyperschall-Marschflugkörpern des Typs Zirkon mit einer Reichweite von 1.000 km ausgestattet ist. Leser in London werden wissen, was das bedeutet, und werden es vielleicht Keir Starmer berichten. Dieser U-Boot-Typ geht nun in die Serienproduktion.

                                                                         *****

Die zweitwichtigste Nachricht an diesem Abend war der Besuch von Steve Witkoff, Donald Trumps persönlichem Gesandten, der mit der Aushandlung eines Waffenstillstands in der Ukraine beauftragt ist. Ich weise auf die Reihenfolge der Berichterstattung hin, denn auf dieser Ebene wird nichts dem Zufall überlassen. Alles hat einen symbolischen Wert.

Dennoch wurde im staatlichen Fernsehen vielleicht zehn Minuten lang darüber berichtet, während weitere Informationen über den Witkoff-Besuch auf Dzen und verschiedenen anderen Internetseiten erschienen.

Schauen wir uns diese Informationen einen Moment lang an, denn sie sind auch ein Hinweis darauf, was vor sich geht.

Wir wissen, dass Witkoff nach seiner Ankunft in Petersburg von Kirill Dmitriev, dem Leiter des russischen Fonds für Auslandsinvestitionen, empfangen wurde, mit dem er sich eine Woche zuvor in Washington getroffen hatte. Dmitriev ist Wladimir Putins persönlicher Gesandter bei den Gesprächen über die Beendigung des Ukraine-Krieges und damit Witkoffs direkter Ansprechpartner. Der geschäftliche Teil ihrer Gespräche fand im Grand Hotel Europe statt, das seit über 130 Jahren das vornehmste Hotel der Stadt ist. Hier verbrachte Pjotr Tschaikowski seine ersten Nächte in St. Petersburg, wenn er mit dem Zug aus dem Ausland ankam. Ich kann in dieser Wahl nur erkennen, dass die russischen Gastgeber dem Besuch eine persönliche Note verleihen und sicherstellen wollten, dass sich seine Zeit auf einige wenige Stadtblöcke im Zentrum konzentriert.

Wir wissen auch, dass Witkoff auf dieser Reise von seiner Frau begleitet wurde und beide in Begleitung von Dmitriev einige Sehenswürdigkeiten besichtigten: Sie besuchten die Große Choral-Synagoge und die Isaakskathedrale.

Der Grund für den Besuch der Synagoge war, dass morgen der erste Tag des Pessachfestes ist, und als praktizierender Jude hatte Witkoff sicherlich Interesse daran, die beste und größte Synagoge aus der Zeit der Zaren zu sehen, als sie im Zentrum der jüdischen Gemeinde der Hauptstadt stand. Übrigens nicht an einem schlechten Standort: Die Große Choral-Synagoge ist nur fünf Gehminuten vom Mariinski-Theater entfernt, aus dem sie ihre Kantoren rekrutierte. Außerdem wurde diese Synagoge Anfang des neuen Jahrtausends mit finanzieller Unterstützung amerikanischer Philanthropen umfassend renoviert. Natürlich sind die einzigen Juden, die Witkoff dort wahrscheinlich gesehen hat, abgesehen vom Oberrabbiner, Mitglieder der israelischen diplomatischen Gemeinschaft, für die sie ein Zuhause in der Ferne ist.

Der Besuch in der Isaakskathedrale bedarf keiner besonderen Erklärung. Sie ist die schönste Kirche in Petersburg und ein prägendes Bauwerk in der Skyline der Stadt. An ihrer Außenfassade sind Narben vom Beschuss der Stadt durch die Hitlerdeutschen während der Belagerung zu sehen, eine nützliche Erinnerung daran, wer wer war, was die Herren Merz und Pistorius lieber vergessen würden.

Ich muss mich fragen, ob Witkoffs Mitnahme seiner Frau ein Zeichen für die wachsende Herzlichkeit der Beziehungen und gute Aussichten auf ein Ende des Krieges auf Anstoß von Donald Trump sind. Oder ist es eine Vorahnung, dass dies ihre letzte Gelegenheit sein wird, die Sehenswürdigkeiten von Petersburg zu sehen, bevor die Mauer wieder fällt?

Um 20.00 Uhr heute Abend war Witkoff in einem Treffen mit Wladimir Putin in der Innenstadt von Petersburg. Der Veranstaltungsort ist die Präsidentenbibliothek (vollständiger Name: Jelzin-Präsidentenbibliothek), ein Ort, der so gut wie nie für hochrangige Treffen genutzt wird. Normalerweise würde ein solches Treffen außerhalb der Stadt im prächtigen Konstantinpalast am Finnischen Meerbusen stattfinden. Aber vielleicht weil der Witkoff-Besuch unter Zeitdruck steht, in der Hoffnung, dass unmittelbar danach ein direktes Telefongespräch zwischen Putin und Trump folgt, wurde beschlossen, sich in der Innenstadt zu treffen, in der Nähe der Admiralitätsgebäude, wo Putin seine Konferenz mit den Marinebeamten abgehalten hatte.

Russische Journalisten gehen davon aus, dass die Gespräche zwischen Witkoff und Dmitriev, wie die zwischen Witkoff und Putin, viele Themen über den Ukraine-Krieg hinaus abdecken. Sie erwähnen beispielsweise, dass sie wahrscheinlich die Situation in Bezug auf den Iran und sein Atomprogramm besprochen haben. Dies ist natürlich ein weiteres Thema von Witkoff, und es ist ein Bereich, in dem die Russen alles tun, um die Lage zu beruhigen, nicht zuletzt durch die Organisation des Treffens, das Witkoff morgen im Oman mit seinem iranischen Amtskollegen hat.

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Angesichts der Spärlichkeit der Informationen, die bisher von den Parteien veröffentlicht wurden, ist jede Vorhersage darüber, wie es mit der amerikanisch-russischen Annäherung weitergeht, höchst riskant. Es gibt jedoch Grund zu der Annahme, dass sich Washington und Moskau nun auf die allgemeinen Konturen einer Friedensregelung geeinigt haben. Im russischen Fernsehen wurde angemerkt, dass das Treffen der Vertreter beider Seiten in Istanbul letzte Woche gute Fortschritte bei der Normalisierung der diplomatischen Beziehungen gemacht habe. Es scheint nun eine vorläufige Einigung über die Rückgabe der sechs diplomatischen Liegenschaften Russlands zu geben, die in den letzten Tagen der Obama-Regierung und zu Beginn der Trump-Regierung illegal beschlagnahmt wurden. Die Russen dürfen nun die Liegenschaften besichtigen, um festzustellen, welche Schäden möglicherweise entstanden sind. Wenn dieser Bericht wahr ist, ist dies ein sehr gutes Zeichen des guten Willens von amerikanischer Seite.

Trump’s attack on elite American universities:  just punishment but for wrongly identified offenses

There is considerable discussion among the chattering classes in the United States about the war front that the Trump administration has opened on elite universities.  Harvard and Columbia are daily in the news for paying big present and prospective financial penalties.  As an alumnus of both institutions, I take a special interest in what is happening and have an insider’s knowledge of the justness or not of the ongoing federal attack which I intend to share with the community in what follows.

The single issue that is brought against these universities as grounds for suspending federal contracts and grants has been allegations of antisemitic policies that allegedly put the lives and welfare of their Jewish students at risk.  This was the basis for suspending $400 million in grants to Columbia in March. Ultimately, the university agreed to actions that Washington said were necessary to deal with antisemitism. Shortly thereafter, the university’s president Katrina Armstrong resigned. Commentators in the press have criticized the university’s cave-in to the federal demands, calling out what they see as failure to respect due process and threats to academic independence and freedom of speech.

The news yesterday is that Harvard may face a freeze of up to $9 billion in federal funding, also in regard to alleged antisemitic discrimination on campus. The education secretary Linda McMahon further accused the university of ‘promoting divisive ideologies over free inquiry…’

Then there are non-specific motives for Team Trump’s announced plans to impose taxes on the endowment funds of universities. Harvard has the country’s richest endowment and so is also the first in line to suffer from any such new taxation.

But for the moment, let us stay with the antisemitic track because, I believe, it yields a better understanding of how Donald Trump is conducting politics on The Hill to get his various wrecking ball policy initiatives approved or at least tolerated by legislators.

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Readers of these pages will be aware that I have directly linked Donald Trump’s backing for the renewal of Israel’s genocidal bombing in Gaza with his initiative to re-establish normal state-to-state relations with Russia, of which achieving peace in Ukraine is only one part. They are linked insofar as Trump needs leverage on Capitol Hill to neutralize opposition within both his own Republican party and among Democrats for his rapprochement with Russia and abandonment of Ukraine. The Israeli lobby gives him that essential leverage when he backs Netanyahu 150% as he is presently doing.

Similarly, in order to shut up the bleeding hearts for academic freedom in the country at large and in Washington in particular, the antisemitism issue provides Trump with essential leverage. 

What is the essence of the antisemitism allegations?  Namely, it is the tolerance on campus for student demonstrators who support the Palestinian cause and who condemn the murderous policies of Israel in Gaza and the West Bank that are enabled by Washington.

I agree fully with the many commentators who decry the crackdown on free speech on campus over the phony issue of antisemitism.  At the same time, I declare here that the universities themselves have for many years themselves denied free speech to students and faculty in other domains, and so they well deserve their comeuppance today.

Allow me to explain myself.

Note that I am talking about the political and social sciences, not about mathematics, chemistry and the other hard sciences, although I leave open the possibility that other seemingly hard sciences like medicine may be as susceptible to ‘liberal progressive’ ideological trends as the political and social sciences.

Anyone who has heard about the big disputes raging in Europe over rewriting history, over who defeated Hitler’s forces and who freed the concentration camp survivors, anyone who has considered the impact of ‘woke’ in the United States on school curriculums and the dismantling of long-standing statues in our public squares knows that history, the leading ‘social science,’ is a moving object.

This is all the more applicable to ‘political science.’  To my understanding, political science is mostly the personal politics of the faculty, with an admixture of methodology (statistics) and maybe a dollop of substantive facts.  That will be clear to anyone who reads my 2010 study of the most prominent political scientists in the country during the 1990s, Great Post Cold War American Thinkers on International Relations.

From my personal experience going back to my year as a visiting scholar at the Harriman Institute in Columbia University, 2010-2011, I saw firsthand how what had been the oldest and best-grounded area studies program in the country was eviscerated by believers in values-based foreign policy, for whom country knowledge was largely irrelevant since people are the same everywhere. Language courses were dropped, history studies were curtailed. Instead, future M.A. diploma holders were given instruction in statistics and other numerical skills useful to find jobs with international banks or NGOs.

That was true not only of Russian and East European studies.  From others, I received confirmation that exactly the same emptiness applied to Latin American area studies. The graduates were only prepared for work in human rights NGOs upon graduation since they only had studied the human rights abuses in one LA country or another.

From time to time in the past 15 years I have written directly to the presidents of Harvard and Columbia to complain that their departments teaching Russian and East European studies had descended from higher education to kindergarten level. Of course, no answers came back.  As I also discovered in my year at Columbia, all student and public events were disseminating anti-Putin, anti-Russian propaganda and if anyone in the hall dared to pose a question to the speakers or panelists that showed skepticism, that person was immediately denounced by others for being a ‘Putin stooge.’

In the past three years, the situation at Columbia degraded still further, so that the Harriman Institute which was, along with Harvard’s Davis Center (former Russian Research Center) the founding center of U.S. Russian studies as from 1949, has become a center for Ukrainian studies where the slogan of the day is to ‘de-colonize Russia,’ meaning to favor study of one or another of the hundred plus smaller ethnic groups rather than the Russians who actually run the country. From my regular correspondence with Professor Francis Boyle, who followed events at Harvard’s Davis Center closely, I understood that exactly the same degradation was proceeding apace there.  And I wondered who, when this Ukraine war is over and Kiev slips from our memory, who will know anything about that fourth biggest economy on earth, about the territorially largest country on earth, about our principal rival at the level of global governance?  Very few people indeed.

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However, what is motivating Team Trump has nothing to do with my parochial concerns in Russia and East European studies, just as it has very little to do with possible antisemitism on campuses.  It surely has everything to do with Harvard, Columbia, Yale and other elite universities having been the cradle of social engineering at least since the time when I was an undergraduate there. They have been the inventers and promoters of Progressive Democratic ideology that Joe Biden & Co. personified and that Trump is trying to crush in his return to ‘common sense’ thinking about gender, merit as the sole basis for hiring and promotion and much more.

Team Trump’s present bullying of the most prominent private universities clearly is working.  Putin or the Supreme Leader in Iran may be hard nuts to crack, but academics and university presidents are not made of the same stuff: they come crawling or they slink away when faced with threats of losing their grants.

Today’s Financial Times has a splendid feature article on those slinking away: “American academics seek exile as Trump attacks universities.” They name names, which is a delight to read.

The preferred places of ‘exile’ of those slinking away appear to be Canada and Europe.  We are told that European universities are keen to recruit professors from the USA, especially those who happen to be Europeans who had settled on the other side of the pond.  However, true blooded Americans are also sought after. The only problem is shortage of funds to add new staff.

For some American professors the cash is found.  Thus, we read that Yale’s well-known historian Timothy Snyder is headed for the University of Toronto. If you go towards the bottom of the article, you learn that his appointment was made possible ‘thanks to fresh support from the Temerty and Myhal families, two long-standing donors of the university.’  Google tells us that both families have come to Canada from Ukraine during the 1950s or still more recently. This is most relevant given that Snyder has since 2014 been one of the most outspoken defenders of Ukraine and detractors or simply haters of Russia in the U.S. academic world. He was publishing his diatribes almost weekly in The New York Review of Books.

I find it striking that right at the start of the Trump administration Snyder has decided that he will do better in the close company of fellow Ukraine-boosters, of whom there are plenty in Canada.

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We all know that for more than a hundred years there have been alternating waves of anti-intellectualism versus intellectuals on a pedestal.  The ‘pedestal’ part came during Kennedy’s Camelot in the form of the ‘best and the brightest,’ and again under Richard Nixon in the person of Henry Kissinger.

When I was still in high school, we all read a very fine text on just this subject by the American historian Richard Hofstadter. We are now witnessing the onset of the ‘anti’ phase. You can blame the hypocrites among the presently righteous in power, but the best and the brightest of the 1960s and more recently of the 2000s have only led us into forever wars. It was the intellectuals who dictated our mores these past several decades both in the USA and in Europe. They took the swing of the pendulum to the point of ‘civilizational suicide,’ as J.D. Vance has commented.  The present humiliation of academics at the hands of Donald Trump is well deserved.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Trumps Angriff auf amerikanische Eliteuniversitäten: gerechte Strafe, aber für falsch identifizierte Vergehen

In den Vereinigten Staaten wird in den gehobenen Kreisen heftig über den Krieg diskutiert, den die Trump-Regierung gegen Eliteuniversitäten eröffnet hat. Harvard und Columbia sind täglich in den Nachrichten, weil sie hohe Geldstrafen zahlen und mit Geldstrafen rechnen müssen. Als ehemaliger Student beider Institutionen interessiere ich mich besonders für das, was passiert, und verfüge über Insiderwissen darüber, ob der anhaltende Angriff des Bundes gerechtfertigt ist oder nicht, das ich im Folgenden mit der Community teilen möchte.

Der einzige Vorwurf, der gegen diese Universitäten als Begründung für die Aussetzung von Bundesverträgen und -zuschüssen vorgebracht wird, sind Vorwürfe antisemitischer Praktiken, die angeblich das Leben und Wohlergehen ihrer jüdischen Studenten gefährden. Dies war die Grundlage für die Aussetzung von Zuschüssen in Höhe von 400 Millionen US-Dollar an die Columbia University im März. Letztlich stimmte die Universität Maßnahmen zu, die Washington als notwendig erachtete, um mit dem Antisemitismus fertig zu werden. Kurz darauf trat die Präsidentin der Universität, Katrina Armstrong, zurück. Pressekommentatoren kritisierten, dass die Universität den Forderungen des Bundes nachgegeben hat, und wiesen darauf hin, dass ihrer Meinung nach ein ordnungsgemäßes Verfahren nicht eingehalten wurde und die akademische Unabhängigkeit und die Meinungsfreiheit gefährdet sind.

Gestern wurde bekannt, dass Harvard möglicherweise mit einer Einfrierung von bis zu 9 Milliarden US-Dollar an Bundesmitteln rechnen muss, auch im Zusammenhang mit angeblicher antisemitischer Diskriminierung auf dem Campus. Die Bildungsministerin Linda McMahon warf der Universität außerdem vor, „spaltende Ideologien gegenüber freier Forschung zu fördern …“

Dann gibt es noch unspezifische Motive für die angekündigten Pläne des Trump-Teams, Steuern auf die Stiftungsfonds von Universitäten zu erheben. Harvard hat die reichste Stiftung des Landes und wäre daher auch das erste Opfer einer solchen neuen Besteuerung.

Aber bleiben wir vorerst beim antisemitischen Thema, denn ich glaube, es hilft uns zu verstehen, wie Donald Trump auf dem Capitol Hill Politik macht, um seine verschiedenen radikalen politischen Initiativen von den Parlamentariern genehmigen oder zumindest tolerieren zu lassen.

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Den Lesern dieser Seiten wird bekannt sein, dass ich Donald Trumps Unterstützung für die Wiederaufnahme der völkermörderischen Bombardierung Israels in Gaza direkt mit seiner Initiative zur Wiederherstellung normaler zwischenstaatlicher Beziehungen mit Russland in Verbindung gebracht habe, wobei die Erreichung von Frieden in der Ukraine nur ein Teil davon ist. Diese Themen sind insofern miteinander verbunden, als Trump Druckmittel auf dem Capitol Hill benötigt, um den Widerstand sowohl innerhalb seiner eigenen republikanischen Partei als auch unter den Demokraten gegen seine Annäherung an Russland und die Aufgabe der Ukraine zu neutralisieren. Die israelische Lobby gibt ihm dieses entscheidende Druckmittel, wenn er Netanjahu zu 150 % unterstützt, wie er es derzeit tut.

Ebenso bietet die Antisemitismus-Frage Trump ein wichtiges Druckmittel, um die Befürworter der akademischen Freiheit im Land im Allgemeinen und in Washington im Besonderen zum Schweigen zu bringen.

Was ist der Kern der Antisemitismusvorwürfe? Es geht um die Toleranz auf dem Campus gegenüber studentischen Demonstranten, die die palästinensische Sache unterstützen und die von Washington ermöglichte mörderische Politik Israels in Gaza und im Westjordanland verurteilen.

Ich stimme den vielen Kommentatoren voll und ganz zu, die das harte Durchgreifen gegen die Redefreiheit auf dem Campus unter dem Vorwand des Antisemitismus verurteilen. Gleichzeitig erkläre ich hier, dass die Universitäten selbst seit vielen Jahren den Studenten und Dozenten in anderen Bereichen die Redefreiheit verweigern und sie daher heute ihre gerechte Strafe verdienen.

Lassen Sie mich das näher erläutern.

Ich spreche hier von den Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften, nicht von Mathematik, Chemie und den anderen harten Wissenschaften, obwohl ich die Möglichkeit offenlasse, dass andere scheinbar harte Wissenschaften wie die Medizin genauso anfällig für „liberale progressive“ ideologische Trends sein könnten wie die Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften.

Jeder, der von den großen Auseinandersetzungen in Europa über die Umschreibung der Geschichte gehört hat, darüber, wer Hitlers Streitkräfte besiegt und wer die Überlebenden der Konzentrationslager befreit hat, jeder, der über die Auswirkungen von „woke“ in den Vereinigten Staaten auf die Lehrpläne und die Demontage von langjährigen Statuen auf unseren öffentlichen Plätzen nachgedacht hat, weiß, dass die Geschichte, die führende „Sozialwissenschaft“, ein bewegliches Objekt ist.

Dies gilt umso mehr für die „Politikwissenschaft“. Meines Erachtens ist Politikwissenschaft hauptsächlich die persönliche Politik der Fakultät, mit einer Prise Methodik (Statistik) und vielleicht einer Handvoll substanzieller Fakten. Das wird jedem klar sein, der meine Studie aus dem Jahr 2010 über die prominentesten Politikwissenschaftler des Landes in den 1990er Jahren, Great Post Cold War American Thinkers on International Relations, liest.

Aus meiner persönlichen Erfahrung, die bis in mein Jahr als Gastwissenschaftler am Harriman Institute der Columbia University 2010–2011 zurückreicht, weiß ich aus erster Hand, wie das ehemals älteste und fundierteste Programm für Regionalstudien des Landes von Anhängern einer wertebasierten Außenpolitik ausgehöhlt wurde, für die Landeskenntnisse weitgehend irrelevant waren, da die Menschen überall gleich seien. Sprachkurse wurden gestrichen, Geschichtsstudien gekürzt. Stattdessen erhielten zukünftige M.A.-Absolventen Unterricht in Statistik und anderen numerischen Fähigkeiten, die nützlich sind, um bei internationalen Banken oder NGOs Arbeit zu finden.

Das galt nicht nur für die russischen und osteuropäischen Studien. Von anderen erhielt ich die Bestätigung, dass genau dieselbe Leere auch für die lateinamerikanischen Regionalstudien galt. Die Absolventen waren erst nach ihrem Abschluss auf die Arbeit in Menschenrechts-NGOs vorbereitet, da sie sich nur mit den Menschenrechtsverletzungen in dem einen oder anderen lateinamerikanischen Land befasst hatten.

In den letzten 15 Jahren habe ich mich gelegentlich direkt an die Präsidenten von Harvard und Columbia gewandt, um mich darüber zu beschweren, dass ihre Abteilungen für Russisch und Osteuropastudien von der Hochschulbildung auf das Kindergarten-Niveau abgesunken seien. Natürlich habe ich keine Antwort erhalten. Wie ich in meinem Jahr an der Columbia auch herausgefunden habe, wurde bei allen studentischen und öffentlichen Veranstaltungen anti-Putin- und anti-russische Propaganda verbreitet, und wenn jemand im Saal es wagte, eine Frage an die Redner oder Diskussionsteilnehmer zu stellen, die Skepsis zeigte, wurde diese Person sofort von anderen als „Putin-Marionette“ denunziert.

In den letzten drei Jahren hat sich die Situation an der Columbia noch weiter verschlechtert, sodass das Harriman Institute, das zusammen mit dem Harvard’s Davis Center (ehemaliges Russian Research Center) das ab 1949 zum Gründungszentrum der US-amerikanischen Russlandstudien wurde, zu einem Zentrum für Ukrainistik geworden ist, wo das Motto des Tages lautet: „Russland entkolonialisieren“, was bedeutet, dass man lieber die eine oder andere der über hundert kleineren ethnischen Gruppen untersucht als die Russen, die das Land tatsächlich regieren. Aus meinem regelmäßigen Schriftverkehr mit Professor Francis Boyle, der die Ereignisse im Davis Center der Harvard University genau verfolgt hat, ging hervor, dass dort genau die gleiche Degradierung vor sich ging. Und ich fragte mich, wer, wenn dieser Ukraine-Krieg vorbei ist und Kiew aus unserem Gedächtnis verschwindet, etwas über die viertgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt, über das flächenmäßig größte Land der Welt, über unseren Hauptkonkurrenten auf der Ebene der globalen Regierungsführung wissen wird? Sehr wenige Menschen in der Tat.

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Was das Team Trump jedoch motiviert, hat nichts mit meinen provinzlerischen Bedenken in Bezug auf Russland und Osteuropastudien zu tun, ebenso wenig wie mit möglichem Antisemitismus an den Universitäten. Es hat sicherlich alles mit Harvard, Columbia, Yale und anderen Eliteuniversitäten zu tun, die zumindest seit meiner Zeit als Student dort die Wiege des Social Engineering sind. Sie waren die Erfinder und Förderer der progressiv-demokratischen Ideologie, die Joe Biden & Co. verkörperten und die Trump bei seiner Rückkehr zum „gesunden Menschenverstand“ in Bezug auf Geschlecht, Leistung als alleinige Grundlage für Einstellungen und Beförderungen und vieles mehr zu zerschlagen versucht.

Das derzeitige Mobbing des Teams Trump gegenüber den bekanntesten Privatuniversitäten zeigt eindeutig Wirkung. Putin oder der Oberste Führer im Iran mögen zwar harte Nüsse sein, aber Akademiker und Universitätspräsidenten sind nicht aus demselben Holz geschnitzt: Sie kommen angekrochen oder sie schleichen davon, wenn ihnen der Verlust ihrer Stipendien droht.

Die heutige Ausgabe der Financial Times enthält einen großartigen Leitartikel über diese Schleichenden: „Amerikanische Akademiker suchen das Exil, da Trump Universitäten angreift.“ Sie nennen Namen, was eine Freude zu lesen ist.

Die bevorzugten „Exil“-Orte dieser Abtrünnigen scheinen Kanada und Europa zu sein. Uns wurde berichtet, dass europäische Universitäten gerne Professoren aus den USA einstellen, insbesondere solche, die zufällig Europäer sind und sich auf der anderen Seite des Teichs niedergelassen hatten. Allerdings sind auch waschechte Amerikaner gefragt. Das einzige Problem ist der Mangel an Mitteln, um neues Personal einzustellen.

Für einige amerikanische Professoren ist das Geld vorhanden. So lesen wir, dass der bekannte Historiker Timothy Snyder von Yale an die Universität von Toronto berufen wurde. Wenn man den Artikel weiter unten liest, erfährt man, dass seine Ernennung „dank der erneuten Unterstützung der Familien Temerty und Myhal, zwei langjährigen Spendern der Universität“, ermöglicht wurde. Google sagt uns, dass beide Familien in den 1950er Jahren oder noch später aus der Ukraine nach Kanada gekommen sind. Dies ist von großer Bedeutung, da Snyder seit 2014 einer der schärfsten Verteidiger der Ukraine und Kritiker oder einfach Hasser Russlands in der akademischen Welt der USA ist. Er veröffentlichte seine Schmähreden fast wöchentlich in The New York Review of Books.

Ich finde es bemerkenswert, dass Snyder gleich zu Beginn der Trump-Regierung beschlossen hat, dass er in enger Gesellschaft von anderen Befürwortern der Ukraine, von denen es in Kanada viele gibt, besser abschneiden wird.

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Wir alle wissen, dass es seit mehr als hundert Jahren abwechselnd Wellen von Anti-Intellektualismus und Intellektuellen auf einem Podest gibt. Der Teil mit dem „Podest“ kam während Kennedys Camelot in Form der „Besten und Klügsten“ und erneut unter Richard Nixon in der Person von Henry Kissinger.

Als ich noch zur Schule ging, lasen wir alle einen sehr guten Text zu diesem Thema von dem amerikanischen Historiker Richard Hofstadter. Wir erleben jetzt den Beginn der „Anti“-Phase. Man kann den Heuchlern unter den derzeit an der Macht befindlichen Gerechten die Schuld geben, aber die Besten und Klügsten der 1960er Jahre und in jüngerer Zeit der 2000er Jahre haben uns nur in ewige Kriege geführt. Es waren die Intellektuellen, die in den letzten Jahrzehnten sowohl in den USA als auch in Europa unsere Sitten diktiert haben. Sie haben das Pendel so weit in Richtung „zivilisatorischer Selbstmord“ ausgeschlagen, wie J.D. Vance es ausdrückte. Die gegenwärtige Demütigung dieser Akademiker durch Donald Trump ist wohlverdient.

Latest twist in the ceasefire talks: Trump says he is “pissed off with Putin”

Perhaps it would be good for Donald Trump to just shut up for several days. His loud daily declarations of dire threats, military or financial, against every country the U.S. seeks to bully into submission has reached the point where he has overplayed his hand, if we may apply to him the card players’ terms Trump seems to favor.

A week ago, in connection with the U.S. bombing raids against the Houthis in Yemen, he intimated that the U.S. is ready to attack Iran for backing the Houthis in their actions against Israel-related shipping through the Suez Canal and Red Sea, and against the U.S. warships now in the region supposedly to protect that shipping.

American B2s stealth bombers were flown to the Indian Ocean base on Diego Garcia to practice bombing runs against Tehran. This was on top of previous threats of secondary sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil, with intent to fully choke off Iranian exports. The objective for that was not only to close down Iran’s nuclear industry but also to halt their production of missiles and to cancel their sponsorship of the Axis of Resistance countries generally.  The response from the Supreme Leader in Tehran was a resounding ‘no’ and ‘hell no.’ In short, the threats have lost their impact there.

Now today we read that Trump has said he is ‘pissed off’ with Vladimir Putin for foot dragging over implementation of the talks on a ceasefire with Ukraine. He says he will impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports as punishment, so that any country buying Russian oil would be barred from selling anything to the United States. 

Sounds tough?  Yes, indeed, till you consider who is buying Russian oil. The largest buyers are China and India.  Does Trump really believe either country will humiliate themselves by bending the knee and kissing his ring?  Does he really believe that he can shut down all Chinese exports to the USA without bringing the American economy to collapse? This is as delusional as anything we heard a few months ago from Blinken and Sullivan in the Biden administration.

In the Financial Times article this evening, they say that ‘Trump’s outburst at Moscow’ relates also to Putin’s ‘attacking Zelensky’s legitimacy as Kyiv’s leader.’  This is striking in that Trump himself in a public address called Zelensky a dictator who has not held elections.

I conclude from this that Team Trump has indeed read closely Vladimir Putin’s remarks to the crew of the submarine Arkhangelsk in Murmansk on 27 March and understood that the Russian president has prepared an alternative scenario for ending the war when Trump’s initiatives fail.  And they are headed for failure unless Trump can beat down Macron, Starmer, von der Leyen and the other European leaders who are working against his peace plans and plotting in every way to keep the war going. 

Judging by what this same FT article says about the 7 hours that Trump spent in Mar a Lago with the visiting Finnish premier Stubb, who is one of the most active plotters against the lifting of sanctions on Russia, it appears that Trump has decided against challenging the Europeans and is instead challenging Putin. 

Needless to say, Trump has no cards to play against Putin. The secondary sanctions are nonsense, as I say above. And military pressure is equally nonsensical, given that NATO has done its best to defeat Russia till now, staying just short of actions that would precipitate WWIII.

My conclusion is that Trump is now throwing away his chances of achieving anything on the Ukraine-Russia war, and with that, throwing away his hopes for participating in the making of the New World Order that BRICS now are directing.

Of course, Trump being Trump, he may well have a 180-degree reversal of his position on all these matters tomorrow.  But as I say, he would do much better just to shut up.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Die Waffenstillstandsgespräche nehmen eine neue Wendung: Trump sagt, er sei „stinksauer auf Putin“

Vielleicht wäre es gut, wenn Donald Trump einfach mal ein paar Tage lang den Mund halten würde. Seine täglichen lauten Drohungen, militärischer oder finanzieller Art, gegen jedes Land, das die USA zur Unterwerfung zwingen wollen, haben einen Punkt erreicht, an dem er sich übernommen hat, wenn wir die Bedingungen der Kartenspieler auf ihn anwenden dürfen, die Trump zu bevorzugen scheint.

Vor einer Woche deutete er im Zusammenhang mit den US-Bombenangriffen gegen die Huthis im Jemen an, dass die USA bereit seien, den Iran anzugreifen, weil dieser die Huthis bei ihren Aktionen gegen israelische Schiffe im Suezkanal und im Roten Meer sowie gegen die US-Kriegsschiffe unterstütze, die sich derzeit in der Region befinden, um diese Schiffe zu schützen.

Amerikanische B2-Tarnkappenbomber wurden zur Basis im Indischen Ozean auf Diego Garcia geflogen, um Bombenangriffe auf Teheran zu üben. Dies geschah zusätzlich zu früheren Drohungen mit sekundären Sanktionen gegen Käufer von iranischem Öl, mit der Absicht, die iranischen Exporte vollständig zu unterbinden. Das Ziel dabei war nicht nur, die iranische Atomindustrie zu schließen, sondern auch die Raketenproduktion des Landes zu stoppen und das Sponsoring der Länder der „Achse des Widerstands“ im Allgemeinen einzustellen. Die Antwort des Obersten Führers in Teheran war ein klares „Nein“ und „Auf keinen Fall“. Kurz gesagt, die Drohungen haben dort ihre Wirkung verloren.

Heute lesen wir, dass Trump sagte, er sei „stinksauer“ auf Wladimir Putin, weil dieser die Umsetzung der Gespräche über einen Waffenstillstand mit der Ukraine hinauszögere. Er sagt, er werde als Strafe sekundäre Sanktionen gegen russische Ölexporte verhängen, sodass jedes Land, das russisches Öl kauft, daran gehindert würde, irgendetwas an die Vereinigten Staaten zu verkaufen.

Klingt hart? Ja, in der Tat, bis man bedenkt, wer russisches Öl kauft. Die größten Abnehmer sind China und Indien. Glaubt Trump wirklich, dass sich eines dieser Länder demütigen wird, indem es vor ihm auf die Knie geht und ihm die Füße küsst? Glaubt er wirklich, dass er alle chinesischen Exporte in die USA stoppen kann, ohne die amerikanische Wirtschaft zum Zusammenbruch zu bringen? Das ist genauso wahnwitzig wie alles, was wir vor ein paar Monaten von Blinken und Sullivan aus der Biden-Regierung gehört haben.

In dem Artikel in der Financial Times von heute Abend heißt es, dass „Trumps Wutausbruch in Moskau auch mit Putins Angriff auf Selenskys Legitimität als Kiewer Staatschef zusammenhängt“. Dies ist insofern bemerkenswert, als Trump selbst Selensky in einer öffentlichen Ansprache als Diktator bezeichnet hatte, der keine Wahlen abgehalten hat.

Daraus schließe ich, dass das Team Trump tatsächlich Wladimir Putins Äußerungen an die Besatzung des U-Boots Archangelsk in Murmansk am 27. März aufmerksam gelesen und verstanden hat, dass der russische Präsident ein alternatives Szenario für die Beendigung des Krieges vorbereitet hat, falls Trumps Initiativen scheitern. Und sie sind auf dem Weg zum Scheitern, es sei denn, Trump kann Macron, Starmer, von der Leyen und die anderen europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs, die gegen seine Friedenspläne arbeiten und in jeder Hinsicht versuchen, den Krieg am Laufen zu halten, besiegen.

Wenn man bedenkt, was in demselben FT-Artikel über die sieben Stunden steht, die Trump in Mar a Lago mit dem finnischen Premierminister Stubb verbracht hat, der zu den aktivsten Gegnern der Aufhebung der Sanktionen gegen Russland gehört, scheint es, dass Trump beschlossen hat, nicht die Europäer herauszufordern, sondern stattdessen Putin.

Es versteht sich von selbst, dass Trump keine Karten gegen Putin in der Hand hat. Die sekundären Sanktionen sind, wie ich oben bereits sagte, Unsinn. Und militärischer Druck ist ebenso unsinnig, da die NATO bisher ihr Bestes getan hat, um Russland zu besiegen, und dabei nur knapp von Aktionen Abstand genommen hat, die den Dritten Weltkrieg auslösen würden.

Ich komme zu dem Schluss, dass Trump nun seine Chancen verspielt, im Ukraine-Russland-Krieg etwas zu erreichen, und damit auch seine Hoffnungen auf eine Beteiligung an der Gestaltung der neuen Weltordnung, die jetzt von den BRICS-Staaten geleitet wird.

Natürlich ist Trump Trump, und es kann gut sein, dass er morgen seine Position in all diesen Fragen um 180 Grad ändert. Aber wie gesagt, es wäre viel besser, wenn er einfach den Mund halten würde.

Transcript of News X ‘Big Debate’ on Ukraine cease fire

Transcript submitted by a reader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu8Yy9Vh5Y4

Rishab Gulati, NewsX: 0:04
Let’s refocus, because we are in times that seem to be showing us a ray of hope after a conflict in Ukraine that has gone on for months that have turned into years. Is there a possibility of an equitable ceasefire agreement that leads to a lasting peace? It’s a loaded question, because not only emotions, passions and life and death have been at stake; but grand geopolitics in what is already a new cold war have to play themselves out as well.

Joining us on the broadcast to discuss this further is Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary of India. Ambassador Pradeep Kapur, Gilbert Doctorow and Professor Madhav Nalapat will also be joining us shortly. Ambassador Sibal, let me begin with you. What is your assessment of what is taking place in the conversation in Saudi Arabia, sir?

Sibal: 1:02
Well, I think the United States is trying to put immediate pressure on Russia to positively respond to the so-called agreement with Zelensky or Ukraine to accept a 30-day ceasefire. Now, if you see the narrative is that the ball is in Putin’s court or Russia’s court. Now, Putin yesterday has in his press conference with Lukashenko spelt out what the concerns of Russia are. And if you have heard that, I think what he has said makes sense and it is very legitimate: that the ceasefire cannot just be declared unless it is embedded in a proper discussion on what happens on the ground and what precautions and measures are going to be taken to ensure a proper implementation of the ceasefire.

2:17
Now as you know the ceasefire proposal has come at a moment when Zelensky has lost virtually his trump card in Kursk. He was all this time saying that this will give him a card to play in negotiations, in terms of exchanging territory with Russia, where Russia gives him whatever he seeks in the regions which have been annexed by Russia, and in return for a withdrawal from Kursk. But that card has been lost, and there is now a danger that Russia may actually go beyond Kursk and actually create, try to create a buffer zone in the future. So, there is need for an immediate ceasefire so far as Zelensky is concerned.

3:11
But there are other issues which are very, very important from the Russian point of view, purely logically. The Europeans have made it very clear that they are going to support Ukraine to the hilt. They will give him all the arms and aid that he needs. They have joined together in various ways. They have held a meeting of the 34 chiefs of staff of NATO to do brainstorming on how to support Ukraine. The European Union has talked about 850 billion dollars to be spent over the next few years by the European Union to rearm themselves.

3:57
And I heard the British Prime Minister say yesterday on television, which seemed a little odd, that Russia is threatening UK in land, water and air and in the streets of the UK. Now this narrative is being spread that if Ukraine is, if Russia wins in Ukraine then the future security of the European Union is [uncertain].

Now, European Union and the United States are working at cross purposes. And Russia cannot ignore what is happening on the ground in terms of what the Europeans are doing. So, they have to have a lot of clarity in terms of a future peace process. And that is where the matters are. I think it is going to be a very difficult process as the gap in the position of the two sides is very wide. And–

NewsX:
OK, so Ambassador Sibal, so the Trump administration wants the ceasefire to happen. They are not mincing words upon it; they are saying there has to be a ceasefire. Russia says we are cautiously optimistic but we do not want the Ukrainians simply to use the ceasefire to rearm. The Europeans … how much of it is rhetoric, gamesmanship, or do you actually think that Europe is going to take a different position to the Americans fundamentally?

Sibal: 5:19
For the time being, yes. Now, what the credibility of this [is], is a matter of judgment. There are people who say that at the end of the day, Europe has been used to US security cover and its defenses have been relatively neglected. And to rebuild them in any relevant time frame to the Ukraine conflict is not on the cards. You can’t set up a huge defense industry overnight. It’ll take years. And on top of that, who will then lead Europe in terms of defense?

Will it be Von der Leyen in Brussels? Will it be France? Because President Macron has been extremely active in this regard. So there are a lot of divisions within Europe. Do they have a joint armed forces? Do they have a joint command? Who will then actually man the various commands? So these are– the point is that the Europeans are putting a lot of pressure on United States and putting a spanner in the works as much as they can, so that the entente between USA and Russia under Trump can be delayed.

6:31
The Europeans from a certain point of view are not wrong that look it’s a question of peace in Europe, and you cannot then decide on peace in Europe without involving the Europeans. But what the Americans are saying is, “Well for three years you were involved in this, and what has come of it? You’ve not been able to solve it, so why [do you] at this stage want to come into the process?”

NewsX:
After all that has been–

Sibal:
One important last thing.

NewsX:
Yes.

Sibal
That the Europeans are determined to send their peacekeepers, French and the British have agreed to that, on the ground after a peace solution of sorts. Russia has categorically rejected that time and again. This is going to be a big, big issue in the future.

NewsX: 7:18
Can Volodymyr Zelensky sit [at] a table with Putin or his representative? Is that possible, sir, or does a ceasefire or eventual peace deal in a sense mean that there has to be a change of guard in Ukraine?

Sibal:
Two things. One: Zelensky passed a decree that there cannot be any negotiation with Russia so long as Putin is in charge. Putin in turn has said that Zelensky is illegitimate and the power now lies with the Ukrainian parliament. And therefore there should be a re-election, election in Ukraine to decide on who would be, which would be the legitimate government. Now, Ukraine despite all the peace talks has not undone this decree.

8:06
If Zelensky was to undo the decree, it would be a huge political setback for him domestically. So, he is not going to do that. So, there are a lot of weaknesses in the situation with regard to the legality of the peace process, because Putin has said that don’t be in a situation where I sign an agreement with the government which is not legitimate, and a subsequent government may actually take this as a reason for not honoring the agreement.

NewsX: 8:35
Okay.

Sibal:
So, there are lots of difficulties ahead of all sorts. So, I can’t see Zelensky sitting personally together with the Russians.

NewsX: 8:45
Okay. As you are well aware, sir, Vladimir Putin has specifically mentioned Prime Minister Modi in, while talking about a potential ceasefire. What role can India still play other than that of a well-wisher?

Sibal:
–in which he made this statement, He didn’t want to give credit only to Trump to try and broker some kind of peace in Ukraine. He said that other leaders of other countries have also spent a lot of their time in trying to address this issue. And he mentioned our Prime Minister, he mentioned Xi Jinping, he mentioned Lula and he mentioned South Africa.

9:28
But there is a nuance here, if you want to read it that way, that if and when the issue of peacekeepers has to be decided, Russia would be totally against the idea of European peacekeepers, but these countries, if they so choose, they can actually be part of peacekeepers or peace monitors or whatever. I don’t think we like that word “peacekeepers” because that means you can use violence. But peace monitors on the ground. It is said in that context rather than asking for these countries to mediate. I don’t think so that was his intention.

NewsX: 10:06
We have under UN mandate deployed peace monitors and peacekeepers before, sir. Should it be open for consideration by us if the offer was to come?

Sibal:
Yes. If there is a UN resolution, then we should accept our responsibility. And in fact both sides would be quite happy if countries like India were on the ground, because we maintained a neutral stance. We have a credibility with both sides. We have actually not been mediating, but we have been passing messages to and fro between President Putin and President Zelensky.

Our national security advisor actually went all the way to Moscow to brief President Putin on the conversations our prime minister had with the president Zelensky. So, that credibility is there. So, our position has always been that it has to be part of a UN sanctioned peace keeping move not in any other format.

NewsX: 11:06
Okay, Kanwal Sibal, thank you for joining us with your thoughts. Let me open this up to Professor Nalapat. Professor Nalapat, “cautiously optimistic”, what can actually be achieved? Are we to assume that if the Trump administration is pretty adamant on the ceasefire that per force it will somehow happen.

Nalapat:
Look, I am bit surprised Trump has gone 180 degrees from his earliest months on peace in Ukraine. And frankly both he and vice president Vance clearly recognized Zelensky has a personal interest in keeping the war going and Russia has got a very long history of broken agreements with the western world and Ukraine. Look at Minsk 1, September 14, 2014. The Russians signed it in good faith. Very soon the Ukrainians broke it.

12:04
Then you had Minsk 2 in 2015. Again the Russians signed in good faith, February 2015. But again it is broken. Then in 2022 Prime Minister Modi in press together with Vladimir Putin said it is a time for peace and Putin would have agreed. Nothing happened.

I mean that particular effort was sabotaged by Boris Johnson for his own political reasons. He wanted to survive and President Biden for whatever reason. I mean Biden has always had a soft corner for the Ukrainians. So the fact is that Trump has completely changed his original plan, which was essentially, you know, a pull out of weapons. Now he said I am going to flood Ukraine with weapons.

12:54
Now, that is not going to go down very well with President Putin. Now, you know, and supplies to Ukraine will continue. So, what happens? It is another Minsk 1 or 2 and another 2022 in which Ukraine gets a whole month to rearm and replenish its depleted soldiers and have a ceasefire when the Russians are winning on all fronts. There is nothing in this deal that will attract the Russians and I will be very surprised if Putin agrees to it.

My surprise frankly is that Trump has completely changed his original position on Ukraine peace as a candidate and then as a president and he has now adopted a line which is very favorable to Zelensky. And every single European leader who is for the war has been cheering this. So, I would like to say, I think this is quite a change in tone, a 180 degree change in position. I cannot see Russia agreeing to this kind of a quote unquote deal.

NewsX: 14:02
Okay, Shun. Gilbert Doctorow, what do you make of what is going on?

Doctorow:
When you repeated what is commonly said now, that the ball is in the Russian court, that’s dead wrong. The ball is in the American court. And there may yet be a deal over a ceasefire, but it has nothing to do with anything that mainstream is now discussing. It has to do with what you and me and everyone else doesn’t really know fully, because it’s going on behind closed doors. It is what Witkoff was doing yesterday in Moscow.

14:40
And what we’re talking about is, again, to go back to the start of this discussion when you mentioned the new Cold War. It’s about ending the new Cold War. That is what the Russians want. And everything else is details. The Russians’ position, which CNN tells us has been changed and has become an obstacle, is nonsense.

The Russian position today is exactly what President Putin declared very precisely when he addressed the Russian ambassadors in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in June of 2024. It is we will stop fighting at once if the Ukrainians remove their troops from the four oblasts, regions, which have been integrated into the Russian Federation. It is that Ukraine be neutral. It is that Ukraine not allow any foreign military installations on its territory.

15:36
These are unchanged conditions. They are not making the situation worse today. They’re simply reiterating why Russia got into the war to start. And Russia will not leave the war if these issues are not addressed. I believe they are being addressed quietly behind closed doors as is normal diplomacy.

The fact that we do not know the details, well that’s the way life works. I am not bothered by it. I don’t think it is a hindrance, and I think it is premature to draw any conclusions on whether Donald Trump’s team knows what they are doing or not. I tend to believe that they know what they are doing.

NewsX: 16:13
OK. Ambassador Kapur, it has now been reiterated every time Donald Trump speaks about Ukraine that had he been president, there would have been no war. And the reasons the war happened and one can suspect, that Ukraine was driven to war perhaps against its own best interests with rhetoric and promises. many of which did not come to fruition, like joining NATO and joining the European Union. Is it your assessment that if the American administration wants it to happen regardless of what the Europeans think or Zelensky think it probably will happen?

Kapur:
Well, I think it’s become very complicated over the last few years with so many players, with so many different parameters, with so many different interests, so many vested interests involved and the change of administration here. As far as I can see currently, Donald Trump has a tremendous interest to make sure that the war comes to a close, beginning with the ceasefire, of course. And he put a lot of pressure initially on Zelensky because Zelensky was quite adamant in terms of, you know, security umbrella, in terms of the NATO membership, etc., etc., in terms of getting his territory back. So he had certain conditions, including not to negotiate with Putin, etc., which were quite absurd, to say the very least.

17:56
And Trump realized that, and he had to push Zelensky into a very difficult corner for him to understand that what he was talking was not tenable at all. And thereafter, I think there was a lot of pressure internally in Ukraine, through the parliament, through the polity, through the, you know, common man that what Zelensky was saying was absolutely unachievable. And they would need to change their stance completely, which they did.

Now, once Trump has achieved that, he wants Russia also to become a little bit more malleable in terms of, you know, threatening Russia, giving arms to Ukraine, giving them the intel to be able to attack the Russian forces. So, this is all a ploy to bring Russia in a sort of a slightly comfortable negotiating position onto the table.

18:49
Now Russian demands, as some of the other panelists have mentioned, have been very clear, not from 25, not from 2024, not from 2023, but from maybe 1945 onwards after the Second World War. After that they had also at some stages even tried to become members of NATO. Then they had asked the western world not to push NATO towards its borders. After the breakup of the USSR, the NATO has actively pushed, you know, NATO towards the Russian border incorporating more and more East European countries into NATO. So, they feel a geostrategic threat to their own security.

NewsX: 19:34
Okay. But, Ambassador Kapur, I have to ask you this. What is, why would a Donald Trump administration want peace in Ukraine? It seems to be serving an American purpose, you keep Russia busy, Russia seems to be friends with China, which is your current number one problem, You are keeping them tied down there, you know, you test out the American field artillery and equipment and the new warfare on somebody else’s people, Russians and Ukrainians die. Americans are not, do not have boots on the ground, they are not dying. So why, why other than peace being a reward unto itself, what would be the American interest in ending this?

Kapur: 20:10
Well, the American interest meaning currently the president being Donald Trump, his interests are that he prospers more under peace. His absolute paradigm is that if you have peace, there is more economic progress, there is development, there is real estate, you know, which becomes more profitable, a real estate sector, which he has been very, very good at in his past. So he is definitely not favoring the military-industrial complex here.

He is not favoring the deep state. The deep state, the military-industrial complex, which were profiting phenomenally from this war, were the ones who were pushing for the war to continue for longer. Whereas, the economies of Europe, the economy of Ukraine, the economy of Russia, of US have all been impacted very very badly. So, Donald Trump wants to make sure that the US economy does well. For the US economy to do well, the war has to stop.

NewsX: 21:09
Okay, now we will get Gilbert Doctorow back in. Gilbert Doctorow, is it possible? Is it, are we simply, you know, being drowned out in rhetoric, which is public positioning, which is part of the process, but actually everybody is sick of it and wants it to end?

Doctorow:
The question of where’s the substance? I would like to explain my view that the substance is a new world order. Mr. Trump has been criticized for being isolationist, for wanting to take the United States out of NATO, for being inward-looking. I think this is dead wrong. Mr. Trump is an internationalist, but he has a different vision of what that constitutes from what has been operating in the United States for the last 30, 40 years or more.

22:13
His view is to establish a Yalta 2. That is to say a world that is governed jointly by major powers and not by alliances. The major powers in this world are four, and India is one of them. I believe that Donald Trump wants to have a personal accommodation with Mr. Putin, with Mr. Xi, and with Mr. Modi, and that these four countries will be looking after global peace and will mediate their own differences or differing interests in parts of the world peacefully at a single table. I think this first Yalta 2 meeting may take place on May 9th in Moscow, when both Xi and Modi are there. And I think that Trump will do everything possible to catch up with the other three.

NewsX; 23:17
All right. Professor Nalapat, Is it possible because the complexity of global issues [is] very large, can we disaggregate them? Because if we assume that the Americans under Joe Biden pulled out of Afghanistan with great rapidity, left everything there, immediately after a war started in Ukraine.

Subsequently a war started happening in Gaza, where we are told funding came from Iran. Iran is not full of money so they get funding from China. It’s a very complex global affair. Are we assuming that whatever points had to be scored in Ukraine and whatever intents and purposes this war was serving to whoever has now concluded and actually all sides want peace?

Nalapat: 24:03
I would say that’s really not the side, not what exactly the Europeans are talking about. They’re talking about Ukraine continuing the war until there is a surrender by Russia. And frankly, I mean, ever since, you know, ever since 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, the US and other countries have been trying to see if Russian Federation will collapse. And unfortunately for them, and I think fortunately for Russia, it hasn’t happened yet. I am not very optimistic about China being part of that architecture. India, Russia, US, definitely. As for Europe, Europe had better get on board.

24:51
The fact of the matter is, but the point is that this particular peace deal is an unconditional deal from, I mean, I’m only going by television reports. I don’t know what the behind-the-scenes conversations are or were, But the reality is what Trump is asking is an immediate ceasefire of 30 days, and after that everything is again up in the air. That’s exactly what Zelensky wants. He’s gasping for air. He’s losing practically the whole of Kursk. His forces are retreating across all fronts.

25:25
Given that situation, I am rather, I do not believe that President Putin is going to agree to this kind of a peace in a hurry. And my surprise is frankly that Donald Trump is even suggesting it, because that is not his earlier position vis-a-vis Russia. He is quite correct that Russia has to be a friend of the US and the reason for that is China. Just as Nixon said China has to be a friend and the reason for that was Soviet Union.

So the reason for Russia and America becoming friends because it’s a nightmare for the Chinese, complete nightmare. India and Russia are already good friends and the Prime Minister Modi. So, this nightmare, it’s a nightmare scenario for [the] Chinese. And frankly, given the security choices of President Trump, I am not at all sure that he would like to see China at the table. Rather, I think you know he would like to isolate China and thereby win the new Cold War. It is not between Russia and the US, but between the US and China.

NewsX: 26:38
All right, it is reasonable to still assess three years later that this war should not have started. In many reasons, it has started under false pretext on promises made by those who have not delivered. Russians have died and Ukrainians have died in the tens of thousands. And what exactly we have to show for it three years later is absolutely nothing other than a continuing stalemate. There are global considerations which are far larger than all of us at play over here. But does everybody want peace in Ukraine at this moment? Difficult one to answer.

We are probably closer than we have been to a ceasefire or a peace deal than in the last 6 or 8 months, but who knows whether the next few weeks can deliver one. My thanks to my guests for having this conversation.

27:30
We take a break. See you in a minute.

Transcript of yesterday’s solo interview on News X World

Transcript submitted by a reader

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFB8q8REXSs

NewsX: 0:02
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has voiced support for all efforts to end the war in Ukraine. In a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s commitment to dialogue and a political resolution. The call comes after US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah proposed a 30-day ceasefire, a plan Putin says raises serious concerns. Meanwhile, Washington has resumed military and intelligence sharing with Kiev after suspending it due to a past dispute between Zelensky and Trump. The two leaders also discussed their OPEC commitments and Saudi Arabia’s mediation efforts between Russia and the US.

0:46
We are joined to discuss this further with Gilbert Doctorow, Russian affairs expert located in Belgium. Thank you very much for joining us. Gilbert, President Putin has listed a range of tough requirements for Moscow to even consider a truce. This includes no NATO membership for Ukraine and it also includes these territories including Crimea. Can you explain why the Kremlin insists on these demands and whether it truly wants a workable ceasefire or are these conditions primarily for show?

Doctorow: 1:23
For show. They’re substantive, and the Russians insist that they be addressed. Otherwise, the sacrifice of 150,000 Russian soldiers over the last three years will be unjustified and the Kremlin will find itself opposed by patriots at home.

This is nothing new. In June, 2024, Mr. Putin stated very clearly– I believe it was a meeting of the Russian ambassadors in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs– he stated clearly these terms that we heard again in the last several days, that Russia is ready to halt all hostilities at once if the Ukrainians evacuate their forces from the Russian provinces. That is the two Donbass provinces and the two Novorossiya provinces of Kherson and Zaporozhya, which they have incorporated into the Russian Federation.

02:24
This is nothing new, but the main issue here was also stated in 2024, and has been repeated several times since. And that is the agreements that have to be reached with the United States, not with Ukraine, with the United States, because the overarching issue that caused Russia to unleash the special military operation was to roll back the NATO expansion since 1994, which is in violation of all the promises given to Gorachov by Baker and by the German leadership when Russia agreed to withdraw from the Warsaw Pact countries.

NewsX: 3:05
The United States, as you say, under President Trump, has pushed for this 30-day pause in the fighting, yet Putin’s reaction is described as incomplete. From the Russian viewpoint, why isn’t a short-term pause an appealing step towards ending the conflict? Doesn’t it least offer a humanitarian window?

Doctorow: 3:25
Not at all. It provides Ukraine with a window to rearm and reposition at a moment when they are on the run, when the Russians have, after very great efforts and heroic action in Sudzha, where they marched 16 kilometers in a gas pipe to attack the Ukrainian forces holding a major city that was in their possession since the incursion into Kursk. The Russians have made enormous efforts to seize the initiative. They have it. And they have no intention of sacrificing this, allowing Mr. Zelensky to rearm and reposition and to take away the advantages that the Russians have won at great cost.

NewsX: 4:13
Ukrainian President Zelensky has called Putin’s response manipulative. What’s your perspective on that accusation? Does Russia accept any responsibility for prolonging negotiations? Or do you see Zelensky’s criticism as baseless?

Doctorow:
No, it’s not baseless. He is correct. But I point to the fact that the expectation could have been that the Ukrainians and all the propagandists in the EU would have attacked Putin for turning down the American-Ukrainian initiative. No, they haven’t done that. They’ve been much more cautious, because Mr. Trump wants this to go ahead, and he knew fully well that Mr. Putin would never accept the terms of the ceasefire as they were first agreed with the Ukrainians.

So for the Russians, the response in the West has been acceptable. Yes, they are manipulative, but what else do you do in negotiations if not try to manipulate? What is Mr. Trump doing all the time? You can call that manipulative. That is what negotiations are all about.

NewsX: 5:22
Yeah, but one final question: Moscow often criticises for what it sees as Western meddling in the region, yet a ceasefire brokered by the US would arguably bring both relief to the Russians and Ukrainian civilians. How do you reconcile Russia’s distrust of Western involvement with the need for a credible international mediator?

Doctorow:
Well, the United States is not a credible international mediator. Let’s be clear about it. The United States is a co-belligerent. And the moment that Mr. Trump restarted the sharing of intelligence data with Ukraine, which is critical to their offense as well as defensive operations; the moment that Mr. Trump released a continuing supply of weapons that were allocated to Ukraine in the last days of the Biden regime, the United States once again became a co-belligerent.

6:18
You cannot be both a co-belligerent and an honest outside broker. So the situation is rather peculiar in all senses. Nonetheless, the Russians fully appreciate that Mr. Putin made this clear at his press conference yesterday together with Belarusian President Lukashenko, that the Kremlin is highly appreciative of all of Mr. Trump’s efforts and that they will likely succeed, but only after the terms, the details in which the devil exists are clarified, because we all received from Mr. Rubio in his press conference after the meeting in Jeddah only procedural remarks: that groups have been named to negotiate and so forth. But as to content, we learned nothing, which is not surprising. However, I suspect that Mr Putin also learned nothing because the Trump administration hasn’t yet put together a logical, consistent path to peace.

NewsX: 7:20
Gilbert Doctorow, thank you very much for joining us. We now move to some ore news updates.

‘Dialogue Works’ edition of 7 November 2024: Trump Wins! But Huge Challenges Await in Ukraine & Israel!

In fact the greater part of this interview was devoted to news about the candidates Donald Trump is said to be considering for the key positions of Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State. These include Mike Pompeo, Richard Grenell and several other ugly personalities who, during Trump’s first term, not only tried to implement the worst of Neocon policies, in defiance of the stated objectives of their boss; but who swaggered on the world stage and treated all their counterparties with contempt.

If this is indeed a signal on how Trump intends to lead the country in the coming four years, then he is in for a rude shock just after his inauguration, because the world has changed significantly in the four years since he left office. American global hegemony is on the way out. Apart from Europe; where the collective leadership seems to be suffering from incurable subservience to the States and a sort of masochism that notches well into Trump’s customary aggressiveness and disdain for ‘losers,’ the Rest of the World is in revolt against American domination and hubris. Moreover, the objective factors of respective military might and geopolitical heft of the Russian-Chinese alliance today vis-à-vis the United States make it virtually impossible for Trump to end the war in Ukraine by fiat without due regard for Russian interests or to enable Netanyahu to destroy Iran and subjugate its neighborhood in West Asia. The seeming restraint of Joe Biden with respect to Russia and to Iran was due not to his being soft in the head or lacking force of will, as Trump seems to believe. No, it was because folks at the Pentagon told him firmly that ‘you cannot do that boss’ without risking America’s assets abroad if not nuclear attack on the Continental USA. This is the advice these career officers will likely administer on Trump as well, if they do not simply subvert or overrule his orders, as General Mark Milley once did in Trump’s first term. We go into a detailed discussion of these matters in the interview, and I trust that viewers will find this to be of value.

Global politics are now moving along very quickly. It appears that the German federal government has just collapsed as ministers are abandoning ship without waiting for some long delayed vote of confidence in the Bundestag. And, notwithstanding my remark in this interview that Vladimir Putin is in no rush to congratulate Trump on his victory since the countries are de facto if not de jure in a state of war, at his talks during the session of the annual Valdai Club gathering in Sochi last night Putin did just that and made a fairly conciliatory outreach to Trump. As the Russians are now fond of saying, the ball is now in Trump’s court.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgZt-uJS-Mg