I am pleased to present the link to a half-hour interview dealing with the Ukraine war which was recorded two days ago and has just been released.
This web page provides not only the full video of the interview but also a transcript which, while not perfect, offers a fairly clear record of all the key points in the chat.
The free flowing format of the discussion provided an excellent opportunity to expand on the thoughts underlying my recent essay “The coming existential threat.” That essay has attracted a huge readership because it touches upon the concerns of one and all: what we can do to survive the present conflict given the possibilities it will escalate to a full-blown world war.
I end this introduction on an optimistic note.
In the United States, the antiwar movement will finally come alive this coming Sunday, 19 February, in several mass gatherings organized under the slogan “Rage Against the War Machine.” Former Congressman Ron Paul is one of the best known speakers who will address demonstrators on The Mall in downtown Washington, D.C. On the same day a “Rage” demonstration is scheduled for San Francisco. My colleague and friend Ray McGovern will be one of the well known activists who address that gathering, in his case by remote. I understand that similar events will be organized in other cities across America.
For their part, the Germans, who are most consequential country in Europe as regards continuation of or settlement of the war, are also belatedly organizing public demonstrations under the aegis of wise, responsible and influential speakers led by Bundestag member Sahra Wagenknecht. On 25 February they will appear before the Brandenburg Gates in Berlin to call upon Chancellor Scholz to halt all shipments of arms to Ukraine and to press for a cease-fire and peace talks.
In short, it is time for readers of these lines to stand up and be counted on the side of the angels for the sake of our common welfare. Failure to do so leaves us only with the slim hope of an ‘every man for himself’ escape to some refuge from the conflagration that may consume the Northern Hemisphere if not the whole globe.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
Translations below into French (Youri) , German (Andreas Mylaeus) and Brazilian Potuguese (Evandro Menezes)
Un entretien avec l’animateur Hrvoye P. Moric
du site web Politique et Empire
J’ai le plaisir de vous présenter le lien vers une interview d’une demi-heure traitant de la guerre en Ukraine, enregistrée il y a deux jours et qui vient d’être publiée.
Cette page web fournit non seulement la vidéo complète de l’interview mais aussi une transcription qui, bien qu’imparfaite, offre un enregistrement assez clair de tous les points clés de la discussion.
Le format libre de la discussion a fourni une excellente occasion de développer les idées qui sous-tendent mon récent article intitulé « The coming existential threat » (La menace existentielle qui s’annonce). Cet article a attiré un grand nombre de lecteurs parce qu’il aborde les préoccupations de chacun : ce que nous pouvons faire pour survivre au conflit actuel, compte tenu des possibilités qu’il dégénère en une véritable guerre mondiale.
Je termine cette introduction sur une note optimiste.
Aux États-Unis, le mouvement anti-guerre va enfin prendre vie dimanche prochain, le 19 février, lors de plusieurs rassemblements de masse organisés sous le slogan « Rage Against the War Machine » (La colère contre la machine de guerre). L’ancien membre du Congrès Ron Paul est l’un des orateurs les plus connus qui s’adressera aux manifestants sur le Mall, dans le centre de Washington, D.C. Le même jour, une manifestation « Rage » est prévue à San Francisco. Mon collègue et ami Ray McGovern sera l’un des militants les plus connus à s’adresser à ce rassemblement, dans son cas à distance. Je crois savoir que des manifestations similaires seront organisées dans d’autres villes d’Amérique.
De leur côté, les Allemands, qui sont le pays le plus important d’Europe en ce qui concerne la poursuite ou la résolution de la guerre, organisent aussi tardivement des manifestations publiques sous l’égide d’orateurs sages, responsables et influents dirigés par Sahra Wagenknecht, membre du Bundestag. Le 25 février, ils se présenteront devant la porte de Brandebourg à Berlin pour demander au chancelier Scholz de cesser toute livraison d’armes à l’Ukraine et de faire pression pour un cessez-le-feu et des pourparlers de paix.
En bref, il est temps pour les lecteurs de ces lignes de se lever et de se ranger du côté des anges pour le bien de notre intérêt commun. Si nous ne le faisons pas, il ne nous reste que le mince espoir d’une fuite « chacun pour soi » vers un refuge quelconque pour échapper à la conflagration qui pourrait consumer l’hémisphère nord, voire le globe entier.
Ein Interview mit dem Gastgeber Hrvoye P. Moric von der Politics and Empire website
Ich freue mich, den Link zu einem halbstündigen Interview über den Ukraine-Krieg zu präsentieren, das vor zwei Tagen aufgezeichnet und gerade veröffentlicht wurde.
Auf dieser Website finden Sie nicht nur das vollständige Video des Gesprächs, sondern auch eine Abschrift, die zwar nicht perfekt ist, aber alle wichtigen Punkte des Gesprächs ziemlich genau wiedergibt.
Das freie Format der Diskussion bot eine ausgezeichnete Gelegenheit, die Gedanken zu vertiefen, die meinem jüngsten Aufsatz “Die kommende existenzielle Bedrohung” zugrunde liegen. Dieser Aufsatz hat eine große Leserschaft angezogen, weil er die Sorgen von uns allen berührt: Was können wir tun, um den gegenwärtigen Konflikt zu überleben, wenn die Möglichkeit besteht, dass er zu einem ausgewachsenen Weltkrieg eskaliert?
Ich schließe diese Einleitung mit einer optimistischen Bemerkung.
In den Vereinigten Staaten wird die Antikriegsbewegung am kommenden Sonntag, dem 19. Februar, in mehreren Massenveranstaltungen unter dem Motto “Rage Against the War Machine” endlich wieder lebendig werden. Der ehemalige Kongressabgeordnete Ron Paul ist einer der bekanntesten Redner, der auf der Mall in der Innenstadt von Washington, D.C., zu den Demonstranten sprechen wird. Am selben Tag ist in San Francisco eine “Rage”-Demonstration geplant. Mein Kollege und Freund Ray McGovern wird einer der bekannten Aktivisten sein, der zu dieser Versammlung sprechen wird, in seinem Fall per Fernübertragung. Soweit ich weiß, werden ähnliche Veranstaltungen auch in anderen Städten in ganz Amerika organisiert werden.
Auch die Deutschen, das für die Fortsetzung oder Beilegung des Krieges wichtigste Land in Europa, organisieren ihrerseits mit Verspätung öffentliche Demonstrationen unter der Ägide kluger, verantwortungsbewusster und einflussreicher Redner unter der Leitung der Bundestagsabgeordneten Sahra Wagenknecht. Am 25. Februar werden sie vor dem Brandenburger Tor in Berlin auftreten und Bundeskanzler Scholz auffordern, alle Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine zu stoppen und auf einen Waffenstillstand und Friedensgespräche zu drängen.
Kurzum, es ist an der Zeit, dass die Leser dieser Zeilen aufstehen und sich auf die Seite der Engel stellen, zum Wohle unseres Gemeinwohls. Tun wir dies nicht, bleibt uns nur die schwache Hoffnung, dass jeder für sich selbst einen Zufluchtsort vor der Feuersbrunst findet, die die nördliche Hemisphäre, wenn nicht gar den ganzen Globus verschlingen könnte.
Uma entrevista com o apresentador Hrvoye P. Site Moric do sítio Politics and Empire
Tenho o prazer de apresentar o enlace para uma entrevista de meia hora sobre a guerra na Ucrânia, gravada há dois dias e que acaba de ser divulgada:
Gilbert Doctorow: The U.S. & Russia Are Testing Each Other’s Red Lines
Esta página fornece não apenas o vídeo completo da entrevista, mas também uma transcrição que, embora não seja perfeita, oferece um registro bastante claro de todos os pontos-chaves da conversa.
O formato livre da discussão proveu uma excelente oportunidade para se expandirem os pensamentos subjacentes ao meu recente ensaio “A próxima ameaça existencial”. Esse ensaio atraiu um grande número de leitores porque aborda as preocupações de todos: o que podemos fazer para sobreviver ao conflito atual, dadas as possibilidades de que ele se intensifique numa completa guerra mundial.
Concluo esta introdução com uma nota otimista.
Nos Estados Unidos, o movimento contra a guerra finalmente ganhará vida no próximo domingo, 19 de fevereiro, em várias manifestações de massa organizadas sob o slogan “Fúria Contra a Máquina de Guerra”. O ex-congressista Ron Paul é um dos oradores mais conhecidos que se dirigirá aos manifestantes em The Mall, no centro de Washington, D.C. No mesmo dia, outra manifestação está marcada para San Francisco. Meu colega e amigo Ray McGovern será um dos ativistas mais conhecidos que se dirigirá a esse encontro, no caso dele, remotamente. Entendo que eventos semelhantes serão organizados em outras cidades dos Estado Unidos.
De sua parte, os alemães, cujo país é o mais importante da Europa no que diz respeito à continuação ou à solução da guerra, também estão organizando tardiamente manifestações públicas sob a égide de palestrantes sensatos, responsáveis e influentes, liderados pelo membro do Bundestag Sahra Wagenknecht. Em 25 de fevereiro, eles comparecerão aos Portões de Brandemburgo, em Berlim, para pedir ao chanceler Scholz que interrompa todos os envios de armas para a Ucrânia e pressione por um cessar-fogo e por negociações de paz.
Em suma, é hora dos leitores destas linhas se levantarem e serem contados do lado dos anjos em prol do nosso bem-estar comum. O fracasso em fazê-lo nos deixa apenas com a tênue esperança de uma fuga do tipo “cada um por si” para algum refúgio da conflagração que pode consumir o Hemisfério Norte, se não o globo inteiro.
Gilbert Doctorow 
Dear Gilbert,
I was surprised to see you here as I am a fan of Hrvoje’s. I think you should do more of this cross-collaboration, you are highly respected in the dissident but it is important to “cross-pollinate”, as it helps the message spread
LikeLike
Consider signing the petition by aforementioned Sarah Wagenknecht https://www.change.org/p/manifest-f%C3%BCr-frieden
LikeLike
Thanks for another informative interview. A few brief comments not especially related to the interview. One major “constraint” of the Russian intervention is the Russian wish/demand to minimise the number of casualties taken by their side. Might the seeming willingness by the Russian side to extend the conflict be a simple consequence of this aim. The idea of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian does not have universal appeal to all Ukrainians. Is there a possibility that at some time this negative public opinion, which seems to be becoming stronger, might eventually be strong enough to influence Ukrainian government policy? Hypersonic missiles are clearly a mortal threat to aircraft carriers and the like, but, at least I think, hardly to the continental United States, so their existence seems unlikely to affect US policy much. Finally, Victoria Nuland stated today that the US position is that Ukraine is “owed and due all of their territory within their international borders,” which means Crimea as well. She added that Ukraine is not going to be safe unless Crimea is – at a minimum, at a minimum – demilitarized. Perhaps a Russian strategist might similarly think that the only way to make Russia safe is to take Odessa, and hence to block Ukraine’s access to the sea. The question might eventually become: is Russia able to take Odessa?
LikeLike
I thought that this article was interesting because it provides further evidence that not all Ukrainians are happy to die for “their” country- who could possibly blame them? It also contains the comment from a Russian military correspondent: “We do not take high losses in our offensives, or even in our defensive postures. This explains, by the way, the slow pace of our offensives. Surely, old-school generals are sad that it is not possible to send 10,000 soldiers out in dashing attacks and then, having lost some 30% or whatever, report success to the top-command. For today’s good divisional commanders, everything is completely different. They take care of people, actively using military deceptions, as needed.”
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/02/dmitry-kovalevich-update-on-the-situation-in-ukraine-january-2023-ukraines-defeat-in-soledar-and-the-forced-conscriptions-of-military-recruits-on-the-countrys-streets/
LikeLike
In the following section of the transcript, you were speaking of Patrick Armstrong of patrickarmstrong.ca, weren’t you?
“you are fortunate, in a way, to have had such limited deprivation of income compared to what was experienced by a close colleague in Canada, a retired Canadian diplomat who spent time and he had never seen Moscow and who had a very influential blog. He was visited by the Canadian Intelligence Services, they told him that if he kept this up, his pension would be terminated and his life savings would be confiscated. He very wisely threw in the towel. In Canada with all those Ukrainian Bandera kids, grandkids, it is much more difficult place to find freedom of speech than United States is.”
You don’t have to answer, but I think I’ll just leave this here so others can make the connection. I can think of nobody else it might be, especially considering the content of his final entry. Chilling, but sadly, quite effective.
LikeLike
If what you say is true, and I reached the same conclusion, it tells a shocking story of the shape of Canada. Is there not a single MP, Senator or newspaper columnist who will publicly protest at such an astonishing assault on freedom of speech and opinion?
Small wonder that the government in Kiev, notoriously under the influence of Ottawa, has developed into a full blown fascist dictatorship.
LikeLike
Worst Case Scenario.
It occurred to me recently that Russian “over-preparation” to launch a large-scale offensive in Ukraine and certain recent operational moves they’ve made have probably been driven by what has been a continuing Russian concern throughout the conflict: the prospect of outright NATO intervention. The VSU right now is a force that is low on fuel, ammunition and equipment, somehow both filled with press-ganged conscripts and obviously understrength at the same time. It can be expected to crack immediately under serious attack. The real danger is what comes after the Ukrainian Army routs.
As the front line collapses, pro-Ukrainian personalities from Zelensky to the lowliest Twitter trolls will scream for NATO to intervene at the top of their lungs, claiming that the Ukrainian nation will be annihilated in an act of genocide surpassing the Holocaust in a matter of weeks. Western politicians will come under extreme pressure to act. USEUCOM and SHAPE have doubtless prepared plans to march into Ukraine and throw the Russians back over the old border, a staple scenario of Western training exercises and one executed to great effect against Baathist Iraq in 1991. Some of those war planners doubtless have started believing their own propaganda and will recommend decisive action instead of cutting their losses. Decision-makers may very well make the wrong decision and order an operation to roll back the Russians.
As things currently stand, however, this mission verges on impossibility. Russian forces will be concentrated in eastern Ukraine and any NATO aircraft incoming on attack runs will have to fly through hundreds of miles of highly contested airspace to deliver their payloads, with their own airfields under constant missile attack. NATO ground forces will have to traverse hundreds of miles of sketchy railroads and get across one of the largest rivers in Europe to even enter combat.
The VSU will die before it can be relieved.
LikeLike
Concerning the existential nature of the war for the West, I think the strengthening of BRICS and the open movement of the Global South towards the East is what really makes this existential for the West. That connects, somewhat indirectly, back to Russia not only winning in Ukraine but remaining a viable country on the National stage.
The fact that Russia is doing so–and may in fact win this war (I believe they will although I don’t know how that will look)–is overwhelmingly destructive to the Western Narrative. Even the best propaganda, and the worst people, will at some point be slapped in the face with Reality. What will it take for that “slap” to take place? Perhaps this is one reason why Russia refuses to launch a “big arrow” offensive? It would be a cold reality check for the West and may bring about a knee-jerk reaction that results in a major disaster for the world.
All these things seem to link together–and those links are tightening in a fearful manner now.
Side note: I do wish your microphone issues could be solved!
LikeLike
“stand up and be counted on the side of the angels”
Rallies and demonstrations aren’t likely to have any effect at all, given the nature of the current quagmire. Above all, the globalists don’t care what their respective publics think. (I am equating globalists with warmongers here because I believe they are the same, to a ‘t’.)
The globalists know (or at least believe) that no revolution is in the works.
As far as I’m aware, there have been no signs of mutiny in the ranks of security forces anywhere in the West, so the globalists also have them on their side. They therefore have no fear of any resistance. They are confident they can crush it.
So, sorry to be the bearer of bad speculation (it’s not ‘news’ yet), but no amount of standing up and being counted is likely to have any effect at all. I might feel differently if I saw any effort at all being expended toward organizing mass civil disobedience. Everyone just seems to be tweeting, blogging, making videos, and face-palming.
(I believe my position approximates that of John Mearsheimer.)
LikeLike
And what do you propose instead? that we follow the Russian proposal in such situations: put a sheet over your head and slowly march to the cemetery? The impact of demonstrations depends on numbers, frequency, geography. When they reach a certain magnitude, the media cannot ignore them, meaning the broader public cannot close its eyes to the issues and has to do something very, very hard: think! At present the general public is brain dead by its own choosing. When an ass like Baerbock tells the cameras that Putin has to change his policies 360 degrees as she dd yesterday in Munich and no one laughs in her face, and tells her to resign you know we are still brain dead.
LikeLike
“the general public is brain dead”
There. You’ve said it yourself. And then reiterated it re the brain dead response to Baerbock.
The way Trudeau got the upper hand in the case of the truckers convoy is instructive. If the population had joined them in large numbers, he would not have been able to get away with it.
But they didn’t. So Trudeau doubled down and went to work wrecking the lives of many of the truckers. And again the people just sat by and did nothing.
“And what do you propose instead?”
As I suggested at the end of my prior comment, widespread civil disobedience would throw a monkey wrench in the works. Or at least might.
But that needs to be organized and coordinated by skilled activists. Otherwise people just end up in jail.
Other than that I really don’t know what can turn the tide.
LikeLike