Russia and the military putsch in Niger

This evening’s edition of Sixty Minutes offered an interesting perspective on the military putsch in Niger: that it followed directly from the principles of anti-colonialism which were the overriding theme of the just concluded Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg. What they did not say, but I will consider here, is whether there is more than just an idea nurtured in Russia to explain what is going on in Niger and its neighbors today. Is there a helping hand?

Let us recall that a military unit in Niger has placed the elected pro-Western president Mohamed Bazoum under house arrest. A purge of his supporters in the government is ongoing. Street demonstrations in the Niger capital are shown on Russian television denouncing the French. Some are carrying pro-Putin posters.

Meanwhile the leaders of the coup accuse the former colonial power France of plotting their overthrow. Export of uranium, the main strategic commodity that binds France to this country has been suspended.

Niger happens to represent 5% of the world’s supply of uranium and accounts for a much higher percentage, perhaps 50% of French needs for its nuclear power plants. This assumes a pan-European importance given the key position France occupies in Europe’s overall power generation from nuclear fuels. Although the French company operating the uranium mines insists it will stay on, that may be no more than brave words. French, German, American and other Western expatriates are now being evacuated from Niger.

On the news of the suspension of uranium exports, the global prices of raw uranium rose several percent. Western analysts have said that France and Europe have enough reserves of uranium to cover power generation needs in the short term. However, in the medium and long term that becomes more problematic. And the question bears on whether Europe can and will apply sanctions to the still un-sanctioned Russian uranium and nuclear rods for power generating stations.

A couple of days ago, the Economic Community of West African States, headed by Nigeria, demanded that the constitutional authorities be reinstated in Niger within a week, threatening to take action by force if necessary.  This prompted Niger’s neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso to warn ECOWAS and any others considering intervening in Niger that they would come to the defense of the leaders of the putsch. The military forces of these two countries are not inconsiderable.

The Financial Times speaks of Mali and Burkino Faso from the ideological mindset of autocracy versus democracy: both countries, the FT reminds us, also have leaders who came to power by coup d’état. However, it is just a question of days before the FT sees what I do in front of our noses:  both Mali and Burkino Faso have close relationships with Russia and are well attuned to the anti-colonial message coming from the Kremlin. 

Mali has over the past year booted out French security forces and replaced them with Wagner Group mercenaries. Burkino Faso was named last week as one of the five neediest African countries which will receive between 25,000 and 50,000 tons of Russian wheat free of charge.

And so, while Russia may have puny economic investments and trade in Africa compared to Europe, it is hitting well above its weight in the geopolitical power game even now, before it implements its ambitious plans for Soft Power projection outlined at the Summit.

In closing, it is worth mentioning that Russian news today also speaks about the start of negotiations with several North African states which participated in the Summit to arrive at free trade agreements.  And is Washington still hoping to isolate Russia?  Those are purely delusional aspirations.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023