Three hundred thousand Israelis have fled abroad since 7 October

The opening discussion on yesterday’s edition of Sunday Evening with Vladimir Solovyov centered on the number of Israelis who have fled abroad since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. The host quoted the figure 300,000 and put it into a context that is very closely watched in Russia: how many of their own compatriots fled abroad in the first year of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, most of them in the days immediately following the announcement of a partial mobilization in September of that year.

The flight of several hundred thousand Russians abroad was trumpeted by mainstream Western media, which even sent journalists to remote places in Kazakhstan and Georgia to interview the draft-dodgers. We were told that the young Russians who fled were highly concentrated in IT and that their loss would do irreparable harm to Russian industry and to the war effort. These young men at the start of their professional careers tended to move to the Near Abroad, where they hoped to find employment easily given the universal demand for their technical skills and where they could receive remittances from their parents and friends via the existing banking system, whereas in the West they would be cut off from such sources of funds.

Both at the very start of the Ukraine war and in smaller numbers straight up to this past summer, there were also high visibility Russians in the business world, in the creative arts and especially in the entertainment industry who moved out of Russia to express their disapproval of the Putin ‘regime’ and its armed aggression.  Some were quiet about their motives, but others spoke out openly, saying they could no longer live in a country that invaded its neighbors and violated international law. This group was older, wealthier than the IT nerds and chose to move out into the greater world where they might continue to enjoy the creature comforts to which their money made them accustomed.  Since London and Paris were longer welcoming to Russians of any and all stripes, a good many chose to settle in Israel, both Jews and non-Jews alike. Russia has a visa free regime with Israel and many direct daily flights to Tel Aviv. Other well-to-do Russians moved to Dubai.

As for the first group of Russian ‘war exiles,’ most were disappointed by the professional opportunities they found in the former Soviet republics. Pay was low, the cost of housing was high and rising with each additional refugee arrival looking to rent. Meanwhile, back in Russia it became clear that there were exemptions available for really talented programmers and the likelihood of any further conscription was minimal now that more than 400,000 Russian men were volunteering for military service out of both rising patriotism and very attractive monetary rewards for service in the combat zone. As a result, a great many of the draft dodging young men slowly and quietly packed up and moved back to Russia.

For the second group of Russians, the stars and wealthy, the onset of the Israel-Hamas war put them in a most awkward situation.  The Financial Times was quick to alert us that on 8 October Alfa Bank founder Mikhail Fridman, who had left his London mansion and a good part of his frozen-assets fortune behind to resettle in Israel earlier this year, had taken the first available flight out of Israel and flew back to Moscow, for a ‘temporary’ respite. Abrupt departure from Israel was also the path taken by the aging star Alla Pugacheva, another rather recent ‘settler’ in Israel, ostensibly there for medical treatment at the spas. Pugacheva flew out to Cyprus. We may assume that high-living Russians constituted a significant minority share of the 300,000 folks who fled Israel for safer climes at the start of the war. Hence the particular interest in the subject among Moscow’s chattering classes.

This entire issue of what Russia media today amusingly call the релоканты, ‘relocators’ in English, touches a deep chord among the opinion leaders who appear on the Russian talk shows. We may assume that the topic also figures large when ordinary Russians in Moscow and elsewhere break bread together.

Should these people upon their return be shipped out to Magadan, where the Russian Far East meets the Pacific ocean, best known as a transit hub in the Stalinist gulags? None other than Chairman of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin publicly proposed this fate for them. But Volodin had in mind only those who used their time outside Russia to defame the country, not those who quietly sipped their champagne in restaurants by the sea in Tel Aviv.

No doubt kitchen talk in Russia runs close to what Solovyov says on air: that Russian cultural leaders who moved abroad in protest at the bestial nature of their homeland, like the celebrated authors Lyudmila Ulitskaya or Vladimir Sorokin, must be eating their words as they witness the utter brutality of the Israeli Defense Forces pursuing their atrocities in Gaza.

Coming back to the figure of 300,000 Israelis who have fled the country since the start of the war, Solovyov noted, with justice, that if you project the ratio of these turncoats to the general Israeli population of 9 million onto Russia, with its 145 million plus inhabitants, then the number of Russians who fled after 22 February 2022 would have been 4.5 million, while the actual numbers of Russians were between 10 and 15 times less.  His inescapable conclusion is that Russians are far more patriotic than Israelis are.

The rest of the Sunday night program was largely devoted to fleshing out the argument that Russians have been far too self-deprecating, far too unappreciative of their own strength and their own achievements since the start of the war in Ukraine. The ability of the country within the scope of two years to institute a war economy that has increased many fold the output and delivery to the front lines of latest technology tanks, artillery, kamikaze and surveillance drones, fighter jets is very impressive, especially when set out in detail by a military expert, a retired Lieutenant General who was a panelist on the show. The ability of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and his cabinet to manage the domestic civilian economy was also hailed. Russia is now feeding itself from a vastly strengthened agribusiness sector and is steadily expanding the array of consumer products produced at home, while importing from China and elsewhere in the East other products, including more than half of all new cars sold in Russia, that are often of higher quality and carry price tags way below what had been imported from Europe before the war.

For reasons that will not surprise attentive readers, none of these achievements gets much attention in Western media.  However, the Chinese are watching closely. A delegation of Russian parliamentarians who went to Beijing this past week in an annual visit was exceptionally received by Chinese President Xi, who according to protocol, does not meet with foreign legislators. Russian output in Q3 of this year reached 5% growth. That matches the relatively low pace of the Chinese economy this year. But for Russia it is a new high in this millennium.  The open question on the Solovyov show was how to emulate the Chinese model of relations between the central bank and the government in order to sustain financing of the economy needed to continue at this pace and not have a relapse to 1.5% annual growth, which is the scenario being prepared by the bank director Nabiullina. This is an issue in Russian political discourse that will not go away.

©Gilbert  Doctorow, 2023