For those who are interested, the leading German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has posted on its website a link to live coverage of the debates taking place in the Bundestag this week over the Ukraine war and German arms deliveries to Kiev.
A vote is expected next week and some observers speculate that the parliament will approve dispatch to Ukraine of the long-range, 500 km version of the Taurus cruise missiles despite the opposition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
As might be expected, the Russians have been following the debates very closely. On yesterday’s edition of the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov talk show, they posted a four or five minute video of one Bundestag deputy addressing the chamber earlier in the day. His anti-Russian rant was delivered with the same kind of insane intensity of Hitler at one of his mass rallies. He concluded with the remark that defeating Russia militarily must become Germany’s national purpose. If this sounds like a re-run of WWII with an ending more favorable to Berlin, then you can understand Solovyov’s switching from Russian to his mock guttural German when presenting the video clip.
This entire experience reminded me of the bits of European wisdom that I was hand-fed by my Italian colleague in ITT Europe soon after my move to Brussels from New York in 1980. Contradicting the prejudices of Americans and the Anglo-Saxons, Luigi insisted that Italians are the most realistic-minded people on the Continent , whereas the Germans are the most Romantic, meaning hot-headed. He thought he knew this from personal experience, since he was married to a German lady at the time.
Today’s edition of the Russian state television talk show and news wrap 60 Minutes featured a senior military expert who is often a panelist on their program discussing the reasons why the Germans may indeed be ready to ship their long-range Taurus to Kiev and what escalatory effect this will have on the war.
As he sees it, the decision in favor of delivering the Taurus is that the Biden administration is saying behind closed doors that it is ready to ship to Ukraine its 500 km version of Himars. The difference between the two missile systems is that Himars is ground launched from an artillery rocket system while Taurus is air launched. In practical terms, given the devastation that the Russians have inflicted on most every military air field in Ukraine and given the drastically diminished fleet of suitable jets owned by the Ukrainians today, the launch vehicles for Taurus might have to be F-16s or other planes based in Romania or another NATO country, which becomes a very risky proposition for reasons we will discuss below. But in terms of threats that both long range missiles present to Russia, the expert left no doubt that these are real and unacceptable.
Yes, Russia’s air defense systems are very effective. Perhaps 90% of incoming missiles of this performance quality are shot down or otherwise disarmed. But that still leaves 10% which will inevitably make their way to targets within the Russian Federation heartland and cause vast damage. They cannot reach Moscow, but they certainly can destroy the Crimea bridge, for example. This threat will exist even if the numbers of such missiles delivered to Ukraine are rather limited, for example, a total of 100 units.
For these reasons, if the United States and Germany do indeed opt to send such long-range missiles to Ukraine, the expert believes that Russia will have to abandon its hitherto ‘humane’ conduct of the war and become similarly vicious. Specifically, he is recommending Russian missiles targeting the Rada (parliament) building in Kiev, leveling it to the ground, the Ukrainian central bank and other decision making centers. This would be the first response but we can easily imagine the Russians proceeding to the escalation that has been mentioned publicly in past weeks, namely striking the factories producing Taurus and perhaps even the Himars wherever they are. NATO military targets would no longer be off limits.
Would this take us closer to WWIII? Of course, it would. But do take note as to which side, Russia or NATO, will be taking us across the River Styx to hell.
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As an historian by training, I always look for contradictory causal factors. In the given instance, they are today present aplenty and there is no need to end this essay on the deeply pessimistic note set out above.
The hopeful signs come from the growing awareness of military officials, politicians and even some media outlets in the West that the struggle of Ukraine against Russia is a hopeless cause, as demonstrated by the major Russian victory in Avdeevka and the Russian advances on the ground and at other parts of the 1200 line of contact.
I put in this context the following amazing remarks by Donald Trump during a campaign talk yesterday. Said Trump: “Russia defeated Napoleon. Russia defeated Hitler. Russia has a military machine.” For those who have been nodding off for the past decade or so, Trump just said what no other American or European politician has admitted over that decade: namely that Russia defeated Hitler, not the Americans by their Normandy landing. If you are a school kid in Belgium, you only hear about Normandy and I imagine the same is true in schools across the Continent and in the U.S. of A. Who put this bee in Trump’s bonnet, I cannot say, but the fellow or gal deserves a medal.
Meanwhile, it is no secret that Zelensky is coming under intense challenges at home, and even within his Servant of the People group of Rada deputies.
Zelensky has cancelled the constitutionally mandated presidential elections in April and, and none other than his predecessor as president Piotr Poroshenko publicly asserted a day ago that Zelensky will have lost his right to hold office after 31 March. With the dismissal of General Zaluzhny as chief of the armies, Zelensky now bears on his own shoulders the shame and disgrace of defeat at Avdeevka and of the further territorial losses that are sure to follow in the days ahead.
For these reasons, it is entirely conceivable that with or without any further deliveries of money and weapons to Kiev the government will fall and whoever takes charge will be empowered to enter into talks with the Russians over capitulation.
Should that happen in April or May, the preconditions will be set for a possibly dramatic shift away from the Center Right European Peoples Party and Center Left Socialists and Democrats in elections to the European parliament in June. These are the parties that have turned the European parliament into a rubber stamp of Cold War ideologists.
Perhaps this hopeful view of developments in the coming several months is too good to be true. But absolutely no one can say with certainty, so why not hazard a guess.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Postscript, breaking news, 22 Feb. pm: the vote on arms deliveries to Ukraine was held this afternoon and several resolutions were put before the Bundestag. One which explicitly named the Taurus missiles as among the weapons systems for immediate delivery sponsored by the CDU-CSU was defeated. Another with a more vague formulation to send to Ukraine ‘long range weapons’ was approved by a vote of 382 to 284 with two absentoins. What exactly will be shipped is unclear.
Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)
Deutscher Bundestag stimmt über Lieferung von Langstreckenraketen an Kiew ab
Für Interessierte hat die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung auf ihrer Website einen Link zur Live-Berichterstattung über die Debatten im Bundestag in dieser Woche über den Ukraine-Krieg und deutsche Waffenlieferungen an Kiew veröffentlicht.
Eine Abstimmung wird für nächste Woche erwartet, und einige Beobachter spekulieren, dass das Parlament trotz des Widerstands von Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz die Lieferung der Taurus-Marschflugkörper mit einer Reichweite 500 km von an die Ukraine genehmigen wird.
Wie nicht anders zu erwarten, haben die Russen die Debatten sehr genau verfolgt. In der gestrigen Ausgabe der Talkshow Der Abend mit Wladimir Solowjow wurde ein vier- oder fünfminütiges Video eines Bundestagsabgeordneten gezeigt, der vor dem Plenum sprach. Seine antirussischen Tiraden wurden mit der gleichen wahnsinnigen Intensität vorgetragen wie die von Hitler bei einer seiner Massenkundgebungen. Er schloss mit der Bemerkung, dass der militärische Sieg über Russland zum nationalen Ziel Deutschlands werden müsse. Wenn dies wie eine Wiederholung des Zweiten Weltkriegs mit einem für Berlin günstigeren Ausgang klingt, dann kann man verstehen, dass Solowjow bei der Präsentation des Videoclips vom Russischen in sein spöttisches Kehlkopfdeutsch gewechselt hat.
Diese ganze Erfahrung hat mich an die europäischen Weisheiten erinnert, die mir mein italienischer Kollege bei ITT Europe kurz nach meinem Umzug von New York nach Brüssel im Jahr 1980 mit auf den Weg gegeben hat. Im Gegensatz zu den Vorurteilen der Amerikaner und der Angelsachsen bestand Luigi darauf, dass die Italiener die realistischsten Menschen auf dem Kontinent sind, während die Deutschen die romantischsten, also hitzköpfigsten sind. Er meinte, dies aus eigener Erfahrung zu wissen, da er damals mit einer Deutschen verheiratet war.
In der heutigen Ausgabe der Talkshow und Nachrichtensendung 60 Minuten des russischen Staatsfernsehens hat ein hochrangiger Militärexperte, der häufig in der Sendung zu Wort kommt, die Gründe erörtert, warum die Deutschen möglicherweise tatsächlich bereit sind, ihre Langstreckenraketen Taurus nach Kiew zu schicken, und welche eskalierende Wirkung dies auf den Krieg haben wird.
Er sieht die Entscheidung für die Lieferung von Taurus darin, dass die Biden-Administration hinter vorgehaltener Hand erklärt, sie sei bereit, ihre 500 km-Version von Himars an die Ukraine zu liefern. Der Unterschied zwischen den beiden Raketensystemen besteht darin, dass Himars von einem Artillerie-Raketensystem aus am Boden abgefeuert wird, während Taurus aus der Luft abgefeuert wird. In Anbetracht der Verwüstungen, die die Russen auf fast allen Militärflugplätzen in der Ukraine angerichtet haben, und angesichts der drastisch geschrumpften Flotte geeigneter Flugzeuge, die die Ukrainer heute besitzen, könnten die Trägersysteme für Taurus F-16 oder andere Flugzeuge sein, die in Rumänien oder einem anderen NATO-Land stationiert sind, was aus Gründen, die wir weiter unten erörtern werden, ein sehr riskantes Unterfangen ist. Was jedoch die Bedrohung Russlands durch die beiden Langstreckenraketen angeht, so ließ der Experte keinen Zweifel daran, dass diese real und inakzeptabel ist.
Ja, Russlands Luftabwehrsysteme sind sehr wirksam. Vielleicht 90 % der ankommenden Raketen dieser Leistungsqualität werden abgeschossen oder anderweitig entschärft. Aber es bleiben immer noch 10 % übrig, die unweigerlich Ziele im Kernland der Russischen Föderation erreichen und großen Schaden anrichten werden. Sie können Moskau nicht erreichen, aber sie können zum Beispiel die Krim-Brücke zerstören. Diese Bedrohung besteht selbst dann, wenn die Zahl der an die Ukraine gelieferten Raketen eher begrenzt ist, beispielsweise auf insgesamt 100 Stück.
Sollten sich die Vereinigten Staaten und Deutschland tatsächlich für die Entsendung solcher Langstreckenraketen in die Ukraine entscheiden, müsste Russland nach Ansicht des Experten aus diesen Gründen seine bisher “humane” Kriegsführung aufgeben und ähnlich brutal werden. Konkret empfiehlt er russische Raketen, die das Rada-Gebäude (Parlament) in Kiew, die ukrainische Zentralbank und andere Entscheidungszentren dem Erdboden gleichmachen. Dies wäre die erste Reaktion, aber wir können uns leicht vorstellen, dass die Russen zu der in den letzten Wochen öffentlich erwähnten Eskalation übergehen, nämlich die Taurus-Fabriken und vielleicht sogar die Himars-Fabriken zu treffen, wo immer sie sich befinden. Die militärischen Ziele der NATO wären dann nicht mehr tabu.
Würde uns das näher an den Dritten Weltkrieg heranführen? Natürlich würde es das. Aber achten Sie darauf, welche Seite, Russland oder die NATO, uns über den Fluss Styx in die Hölle führen wird.
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Als ausgebildeter Historiker suche ich immer nach widersprüchlichen Kausalfaktoren. Im vorliegenden Fall sind sie heute in Hülle und Fülle vorhanden, und es gibt keinen Grund, diesen Aufsatz mit der oben dargelegten zutiefst pessimistischen Note zu beenden.
Die hoffnungsvollen Zeichen kommen aus dem wachsenden Bewusstsein von Militärs, Politikern und sogar einigen Medien im Westen, dass der Kampf der Ukraine gegen Russland eine hoffnungslose Angelegenheit ist, wie der große russische Sieg in Awdejewka und die russischen Vorstöße am Boden und an anderen Teilen der 1.200 km der Kontaktlinie zeigen.
In diesem Zusammenhang möchte ich die folgenden erstaunlichen Äußerungen von Donald Trump während einer Wahlkampfrede gestern nennen. Trump sagte: “Russland hat Napoleon besiegt. Russland hat Hitler besiegt. Russland hat eine Militärmaschinerie.” Für diejenigen, die in den letzten zehn Jahren eingenickt sind: Trump hat gerade gesagt, was kein anderer amerikanischer oder europäischer Politiker in diesem Jahrzehnt zugegeben hat, nämlich dass Russland Hitler besiegt hat und nicht die Amerikaner durch ihre Landung in der Normandie. Wenn man in Belgien zur Schule geht, hört man nur von der Normandie, und ich nehme an, dass dies auch in den Schulen auf dem ganzen Kontinent und in den USA der Fall ist. Wer Trump diesen Floh ins Ohr gesetzt hat, kann ich nicht sagen, aber der Kerl oder das Mädel verdient einen Orden.
Inzwischen ist es kein Geheimnis mehr, dass Zelensky zu Hause und sogar innerhalb seiner Gruppe der Diener des Volkes unter den Abgeordneten der Rada heftigen Herausforderungen ausgesetzt ist.
Zelensky hat die verfassungsmäßig vorgesehenen Präsidentschaftswahlen im April abgesagt, und kein Geringerer als sein Vorgänger im Präsidentenamt, Piotr Poroschenko, hat vor einem Tag öffentlich erklärt, dass Zelensky nach dem 31. März sein Recht auf das Amt verloren haben wird. Mit der Entlassung von General Zaluzhny als Oberbefehlshaber der Streitkräfte trägt Zelensky nun die Schmach und Schande der Niederlage bei Avdeevka und der weiteren Gebietsverluste, die in den kommenden Tagen mit Sicherheit folgen werden, auf seinen eigenen Schultern.
Aus diesen Gründen ist es durchaus denkbar, dass mit oder ohne weitere Geld- und Waffenlieferungen an Kiew die Regierung stürzt und derjenige, der die Führung übernimmt, ermächtigt wird, mit den Russen Gespräche über die Kapitulation aufzunehmen.
Sollte dies im April oder Mai geschehen, sind die Voraussetzungen für eine möglicherweise dramatische Abkehr von der Mitte-Rechts-Partei der Europäischen Volkspartei und den Mitte-Links-Sozialisten und -Demokraten bei den Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament im Juni gegeben. Das sind die Parteien, die das Europäische Parlament zu einem Stempel der Ideologen des Kalten Krieges gemacht haben.
Vielleicht ist dieser hoffnungsvolle Ausblick auf die Entwicklung in den kommenden Monaten zu schön, um wahr zu sein. Aber niemand kann das mit Sicherheit sagen, also warum nicht eine Vermutung wagen.
Postskriptum, Eilmeldung, 22. Feb. nachmittags: Die Abstimmung über Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine fand heute Nachmittag statt, und dem Bundestag wurden mehrere Entschließungen vorgelegt. Ein Antrag der CDU-CSU, der ausdrücklich die Taurus-Raketen zu den sofort zu liefernden Waffensystemen zählt, wurde abgelehnt. Ein anderer mit einer eher vagen Formulierung, wonach “Langstreckenwaffen” an die Ukraine geliefert werden sollen, wurde mit 382 zu 284 Stimmen bei zwei Enthaltungen angenommen. Was genau geliefert werden soll, ist unklar.
Gilbert Doctorow 
Hitting and destroying the production facilities will also result in loss of civilian life in terms of the workers in those production facilities.
Any serious ‘gloves off’ response in terms of the key objective of ending the existential threat to Russia and its peoples needs to eliminate those across the Collective West responsible for the decisions which pose that existential threat.
It seems that the leadership which now concedes as a result of its misplaced faith in due process and the Minsk agreements that the Western elite and its culture is non agreement capable may be repeating the same flawed assumptions in terms of the possibility of internally generated regime change and removal of those elites across the Collective West.
Put simply; there is no credible evidence that this is ever likely to happen. If the Russian people and its leadership wish to end the existential threat posed by the dangerous narcissists running the West the Russian State and its people are going to have bite the bullet and do it themselves one way or another.
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As an expat German all I can say is: so what. If the workers participate in the production of weapons to be used against Russia or any other nation, they deserve what they get. They are no longer civilians, because their participating in production, they are participants.
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That’s a reasonable enough position Peter.
However, account has to be taken of context. Those workers, like most workers, are likely to have little choice in terms of finding available employment sufficient for them to earn a living when they enter the employment market which does not fall foul of the very real principles you have articulated.
In cases in which workers have attempted to get such weapons production facilities switched to civilian manufacture they have not had too much success. For example when in Britain – it may have been British Aerospace(?) – it was announced by the company involved that they were closing down a weapons production factory in Lancashire in the 1970’s the workers Shop Stewards Committee at the factory came up with an alternative corporate plan to switch production to a range of more socially useful products.
Even with a so called ‘Labour’ Government in administration the detailed Shop Stewards Committee plan was rejected and the factory closed rather than doing the sensible thing. Throwing many workers onto the dole queue. The irony was that many of the products within the Shop Steward Committee plan were successfully taken up by companies in other European Countries.
Certainly, once in the system many workers tend over time to internalise the logic of that wider context of a ‘Hobsons Choice’ between a lower paid job further away or unemployment and working to produce weapons which kill and maim others. The contextual brutality inherent in the principle being argued can also be extended to the workers in the supply chains and local supporting economy.
Do the workers who produce special steels or engineering tools which go on to service both civilian systems as well weapons production and their delivery systems further down the production chain deserve what they get?
Or those workers, most likely in other countries, who mine the ore? The workers who transport those ores from one country to another? Or even the workers at the local bakery and sandwich shop outside the factory whose daily customers are from that weapons factory?
Context is a real bugger of an issue. Which is why it often gets ignored.
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Here in Sweden the globalist press is full of articles almost every day with big headlines about how Putin is ready to attack (always Putin not Russia). Then follows vivid descriptions of how and where it will be done.
This looks like being part of the plan to prepare the people here for what is coming when NATO intends to provide Kiev with the long range missiles.
When Russia hits back every non thinking and from propaganda deceived person which are the wast majority here will believe that NATO had no part in the escalation of hostilities.
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The Kerch bridge remains difficult to destroy with air-borne ordinance.
It took hundreds of Himars rounds to make the Khakovka dam unusable, but it was still standing.
Also one of the reasons why Russia has not targeted communications across the bridges spanning the Dnieper. The Kerch bridge is relatively new, and will not cut off Crimea.
The most likely targets of long range missiles are more terrorist civilian attacks, like the British on the IL-76 with Ukrainian POWs.
The chances that Russia will respond by bombing Kiev or national symbols is low, as is the chance they will choose to expand the war to NATO territory. Expect the response to be highly asymmetrical.
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Agreed. Emphasis terrorism. Nuland predicted this but mistakenly said it would be a surprise.
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from Kay:
RT reported in October 2023 on a member of the German Parliament’s defense committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. She urged Berlin to supply long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Kiev. She also claimed that Ukrainian attacks on targets inside Russia using those German-made munitions would be in full compliance with international law. Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president, now head of Russia’s Security council, responded, saying: “In this case, the [Russian] strikes on German factories where those missiles are being made would also be in full compliance with international law,” adding:“Still, those idiots are actively pushing us towards World War III.” http://www.rt.com/russia/583855-medvedev-ukraine-uk-germany
It’s frightening that Germany of all countries is getting ready for war against Russia, AGAIN, not having learned from its awful past in WW1 and WW2. And the rest of Europe hasn’t learned either, and forget that Russia was their ally and did the most to defeat the tyranny of Hitler’s nazi Germany at great cost to 27 million Russians who died, and thousands of destroyed cities. .
More proof Germany is whipping up war against Russia is its military Schengen plan – Drago Bosnic reported in November 2023: Excerpt:
28/11/2023,” “On November 23, Alexander Sollfrank, a Lieutenant General in the German Bundeswehr and effectively chief of logistics in NATO, proposed the urgent creation of what he called a “military Schengen” to ease the movement of NATO troops across the European Union. Sollfrank complained that current bureaucratic rules are a major obstacle to operations in Europe and that they’re supposedly “jeopardizing everyone” due to the mythical “Russian threat“. It should be noted that this isn’t the first time a German high-ranking official or military officer has suggested Europe should prepare for war with Russia. Since the start of the special military operation (SMO), Berlin has been extremely hostile to Moscow, evoking its genocidal policies of the first half of the 20th century policies.
Germany’s ideas of racial superiority and desire for global dominance led to both world wars that killed up to 100 million people, the majority of whom were Russians (nearly 30 million in WWII only). Just like Berlin feels responsible for committing the Holocaust against Jews, it should be no different in regards to other peoples it killed en masse, including Russians/Soviets, Poles, Serbs, Czechs, etc. However, for some reason, Germany doesn’t feel the same responsibility toward any of these nations, particularly the Russians. Worse yet, German weapons have been killing the people of Donbass for nearly a decade now, while its unadulterated support for the Neo-Nazi junta is more than disturbing enough, as it’s yet another proof that Berlin has never actually renounced its Drang nach Osten ambitions.” SEE Germany’s ‘Military Schengen’ Proposal: To Ease Movement of NATO Troops across the European Union” By Drago Bosnic 28/11/2023 https://www.globalresearch.ca/military-schengen-shows-eu-nothing-more-than-geopolitical-pendant-nato/5841454
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