The silence among Western media that initially followed the Russian release of tapes of the Bundeswehr plotters seeking to bomb the Kerch bridge was broken after a couple of days when Chancellor Scholz acknowledged the authenticity of the tapes and transcript. He told reporters that the incident was very serious and will now be investigated on an urgent basis.
But what exactly are the Germans going to investigate? The breach of secret communications or the crime that the German government’s own officials were plotting? I would call it a ‘crime against humanity’ in the sense that their intended actions could lead to a world war and the end of civilization on earth.
Regrettably, from all appearances, it is only the first question that interests Herr Scholz, his associates in the coalition government and the Opposition, the Christian Democratic Union. That is what we find in The Financial Times online today in their article “Scholz promises inquiry after Russia publishes tapped military discussions.” There is great consternation that the Russians have accessed what should have been maximally secure communications lines. In its coverage today, Le Monde tells a similar story.
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I have received a couple of comments from readers of these pages, objecting that there will be no consequences if the German plan to bomb the Kerch (Crimea) bridge were to be implemented because Putin is pusillanimous and has repeatedly allowed Russia’s red lines to be breached. Indeed, the bridge was already severely damaged in 2022 without a Russian escalatory response.
But whatever the degree of Putin’s tolerance of NATO aggression for the sake of preventing all-out war up till now, we are clearly at a turning point. In his State of the Nation speech, Putin bluntly threatened to hit back and use Russian missiles to strike targets in countries which enable attacks on Russia. Note: he did not say ‘nuclear,’ and there is no reason why he should. Russian hypersonic missiles are as destructive with conventional warheads as normal missiles would be carrying tactical nuclear warheads. That there can be no back-tracking from this threat was made clear three days later when the Russians released the transcript of the Bundeswehr plotters.
Just like other powers, as a rule Russia does not reveal its intelligence capabilities. The release of the transcripts was extraordinary. For that reason, it is safe to say that President Putin in his speech was sending a clear message to Washington, Berlin and Brussels that there can no longer be hiding behind the skirt of proxy war and legalisms, that they will pay the price for any attack on Russia which nominally is made by Ukraine using Western long-range weapons. Since the Bundeswehr officers noted how Britain is deeply involved in both supplying and guiding the use of its Storm Shadow missiles in Ukraine, London is also now on notice that ‘there will be consequences,’ as the Americans say.
In short, the worm has turned.
Let us hope that our ideologically blinded European leaders are not also deaf, that they have heard and will heed this clear warning of devastation and death to come if they persist in escalatory policies.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)
Auswirkungen des Bundeswehrskandals
Die anfängliche Stille in den westlichen Medien nach der russischen Veröffentlichung von Aufzeichnungen, auf denen Bundeswehrangehörige zu hören sind, die die Brücke von Kertsch bombardieren wollen, wurde nach ein paar Tagen durchbrochen, als Bundeskanzler Scholz die Echtheit der Bänder und der Abschrift bestätigte. Er erklärte gegenüber Reportern, der Vorfall sei sehr ernst und werde nun dringend untersucht.
Aber was genau werden die Deutschen untersuchen? Die Verletzung der geheimen Kommunikation oder das Verbrechen, das von den eigenen Beamten der deutschen Regierung geplant wurde? Ich würde es als “Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit” bezeichnen, da ihr geplantes Handeln zu einem Weltkrieg und dem Ende der Zivilisation auf der Erde führen könnte.
Bedauerlicherweise ist es allem Anschein nach nur die erste Frage, die Herrn Scholz, seine Partner in der Regierungskoalition und die Opposition, die Christlich Demokratische Union, interessiert. Das lesen wir heute in der Financial Times online in ihrem Artikel “Scholz verspricht Untersuchung, nachdem Russland abgehörte Militärgespräche veröffentlicht hat”. Es herrscht große Bestürzung darüber, dass die Russen auf die eigentlich höchst sicheren Kommunikationsleitungen zugegriffen haben. Le Monde berichtet in ihrer heutigen Berichterstattung ähnlich.
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Ich habe einige Kommentare von Lesern dieser Seiten erhalten, die einwenden, dass es keine Konsequenzen haben wird, wenn der deutsche Plan, die Brücke von Kertsch (Krim) zu bombardieren, umgesetzt wird, weil Putin kleinmütig ist und wiederholt zugelassen hat, dass die roten Linien Russlands überschritten werden. Tatsächlich wurde die Brücke bereits 2022 schwer beschädigt, ohne dass es zu einer russischen Eskalationsreaktion gekommen wäre.
Doch wie groß Putins Toleranz gegenüber der NATO-Aggression auch immer gewesen sein mag, um einen totalen Krieg zu verhindern, wir befinden uns eindeutig an einem Wendepunkt. In seiner Rede zur Lage der Nation hat Putin unverblümt damit gedroht, zurückzuschlagen und russische Raketen einzusetzen, um Ziele in Ländern zu treffen, die Angriffe auf Russland ermöglichen. Wohlgemerkt: Er hat nicht “nuklear” gesagt, und es gibt keinen Grund, warum er das tun sollte. Russische Hyperschallraketen sind mit konventionellen Sprengköpfen ebenso zerstörerisch wie normale Raketen mit taktischen Atomsprengköpfen. Dass es von dieser Drohung keinen Rückzieher geben kann, wurde drei Tage später deutlich, als die Russen die Mitschrift der Bundeswehrverschwörer veröffentlicht haben.
Wie andere Mächte auch, gibt Russland in der Regel seine geheimdienstlichen Fähigkeiten nicht preis. Die Freigabe der Abschriften war außergewöhnlich. Aus diesem Grund kann man mit Sicherheit sagen, dass Präsident Putin in seiner Rede eine klare Botschaft an Washington, Berlin und Brüssel ausgesandt hat, dass man sich nicht länger hinter dem Rock des Stellvertreterkriegs und der Legalität verstecken kann, dass sie den Preis für jeden Angriff auf Russland zahlen werden, der nominell von der Ukraine mit westlichen Langstreckenwaffen durchgeführt wird. Da die Offiziere der Bundeswehr festgestellt haben, dass Großbritannien sowohl in die Lieferung als auch in die Steuerung des Einsatzes seiner Storm Shadow-Raketen in der Ukraine verwickelt ist, weiß nun auch London, dass es “Konsequenzen geben wird”, wie die Amerikaner sagen.
Kurz gesagt, das Blatt hat sich gewendet.
Hoffen wir, dass unsere ideologisch verblendeten europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs nicht ebenfalls taub sind, dass sie diese klare Warnung vor Verwüstung und Tod gehört haben und beherzigen werden, wenn sie ihre eskalierende Politik fortsetzen.
Gilbert Doctorow 
I feel that the West still does not take Russia seriously, that the Nuland and Blinken and Sullivan and the rest of their neoconservative echo chamber really believe Russia is weak and will cow to the US. So it feels to me that the West is sleepwalking into a nightmare. I just hope I’m wrong. Thank you for your updates and analysis!
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If that was the case, the SMO would never have started.
The RF seems to have adhered to the established etiquette of proxy war. Supply of guns, money, intel & even specialists/advisors on the ground.
Whilst not welcome is within the “forms”. The more reckless spoiler/terrorist strike are much closer to crossing that line.
Still NATO won’t commit to war even if the RF lashes back in a controlled way.
Simply because they can’t, the only real moment to intervene was 2022. When AFU was as strong as it was ever going to get and the RF had only a peacetime military mobilized.
Too late now. NATO forces are two years more shriveled and have less armament & popular support for the Ukrainian venture.
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Uneducated comment:
Perhaps Germany (with Russian collusion?) deliberately allowed the tapes to be exposed because Germany wants to backtrack on the war.
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Is this likely ? I hope your assumption is correct and if Scholz investigation is more focussed on how these tapes could have been gone public instead of pointing out that a thick red line has been crossed, you are wrong.
What exactly is the position of Scholz on this war? During the press conference where Biden guaranteed to destroy the Nordstream pipelines if Russia would invade Ukraine, Scholz was standing besides him and he did not respond on questions of journalists. I have watched this video many times, but only lately I have seen that Scholz gave a speech before Biden did. How arrogant of Biden to tell the audience that his country will make sure that the Nordstream pipelines will be destroyed while part of the Nordstream is owned by Germand !
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SCARY TIMES! – There seem to be forces in Germany for and against escalating war with Russia. Germany has had 2 hideous wars on Russia in the 20th Century. In November 2023 it was reported that Alexander Sollfrank Lieut. General in the German Bundeswehr with links to NATO proposed the urgent creation of a “military Schengen” to ease movement of NATO troops across the European Union and overcome obstacles to facing the “Russian threat.” So this guy, highly placed in Germany is all for war on Russia.. But i see Sputnik 2/3/2024 reports that Tino Chrupalla, co-chair of Germany’s far right Party AfD, comments that Germany will be dragged into the conflict between Moscow and Kiev if it transfers its Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Tino Chrupalla, co-chair of Germany’s far-right party Alternative for Germany. No to Taurus transfers he writes. – Kay
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There is a dichotomy lurking here with no middle ground. Either NATO knows that it cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield without the use of nuclear weapons or it does not. Note in passing that that dichotomy does not exist because NATO can in fact not defeat Russia using nuclear weapons. However, let us let the dichotomy stand. The dichotomy can be simplified by by substituting the name Blinken for NATO. I frankly believe that Blinken thinks the enormity of a nuclear first strike by the United States, for which there is a precedent, will so overwhelm psychologically and militarily Russia that NATO will emerge victorious. Think Japan at the end of World War II.
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It seems to me that the neoconservatives in the State Dept. believe that the US has some sort of defense against a nuclear strike from Russia. I haven’t seen any explicit reference to such a defense, but their attitudes and behavior imply high confidence that the US would survive such an attack.
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Wjhat they think in the State Department about first strikes has no importance. The Pentagon knows better. Both Russian and American nuclear deterrence capabilities are presently on a high state of alert. In this situation, the surprise element necessary for a first strike to have any chance of success does not exist. To stage a first strike in the normal sense of decapitation of not just one center but of all launch facilities, you need to have massive preparations which can be observed from space. So rest easy, it will not happen however delusional Blinken and his boss may be.
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Excellent observations, and I was especially glad to read your point that I have tried to get across to people in my little sphere. Russia does not need to use nuclear weapons. With the kinzhal, zircon and the avangard they can do just fine.
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Putin may appear pusillanimous to those who live under leaders who have lost the capacity to understand the civilization-ending consequences of war with Russia. “Sane” is the word I would use to describe the man. Whoever it is who runs the foreign policy of the US, and by extension NATO, seems to be hell bent on pushing Russia into direct conflict. These are not rational actors. Putin then has an exceptionally difficult if not impossible balancing act to perform if the Last War is to be avoided.
I also find it very hard to beleive that this release is the result on an intercept/decryption of NATO secure comms by Russia (rather than a leak by persons in the German military). If Russia truly has this capability it is almost impossible to overestimate the advantage it affords. For Russia to voluntarily give that away it must be convinced that the benefits outweigh the cost.
The movie The Imitation Game includes an excellent scene in which the protagonist; Alan Turing, explains why it is vitally important to keep the break of the Enigma code secret from the enemy.
youtube.com/watch?v=Qdfp5Za0XVg
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Re the results of Putin’s alleged pusillanimity, here is Elena Panina of RUSSTRAT this morning on the dire need for Russia to make an overwhelming demonstration of force to show she is serious about stopping the escalation towards nuclear war (machine translation). I imagine there are voices saying the same thing inside the Kremlin.
“A major war in Europe today can only be avoided through a sharp, proactive escalation on the part of Moscow . That is, a demonstration of determination to physically destroy the most active actors in the game against Russia. So far this is not visible and thus we are getting closer and closer to the point of no return . We are practically already standing on it.
Now is exactly the case when a flexible Russian policy, tuned to compromise and the desire to come to an agreement, can turn into a great misfortune. On the contrary, a sharp increase in military stakes still leaves some chance of resolving the situation without a major military conflict .
There are no more good solutions, only bad and very bad ones remain. And if Russia in the near future (without waiting for the United States) does not conduct large-scale nuclear tests and does not close the Black Sea to NATO reconnaissance aircraft, then it needs to immediately prepare for at least a limited nuclear war .
Only through overwhelming escalation can one convince the enemy that his actions are disastrous for himself. The time for streamlined political statements ended yesterday . Now they are only aggravating the situation and provoking the other side. It’s too late to express concern; it smells too much like gunpowder.”
t.me/s/EvPanina/12989 (Russian)
This new Cuban Missile Crisis has a dream-like quality, as populations in the West are largely unaware of how close we are to the precipice.
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Elsewhere on the internet. It has been noted that the goal of the NATO initiated, sponsored and conducted war by Ukraine has been aimed, specifically and exclusively at the destruction of the Russian state or as one American solon has stated the de-colonization of Russia.
Now that these contemptible, pusillanimous and contriving creatures have been defeated– but of course they have not been defeated because they never have themselves joined the battle– they are calling upon their citizens to die to support their psychotic and self-enriching dream. King Leopold would be proud. Increasingly it looks as though they will be very fortunate if they do not all die. Their constituencies are so many beaten dogs that they will not object. Thus ends humanity.
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“Russian hypersonic missiles are as destructive with conventional warheads as normal missiles would be carrying tactical nuclear warheads.”
That is an extreme exaggeration:
Kinetic energy = 0.5 * m [kg] * v^2 [m/s]
–> high subsonic (e.g. USN Tomahawk) vs hypersonic (e.g. RuAF Kinzhal) kinetic energy difference is thus ~100 times, on the order of ~90 mln J (for Tomahawk) and ~9 bln. J (for Kinzhal)
Explosive energy TNT (see e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent): ~2 bln. J for 500 kg conventional explosive (typical warhead mass for such missiles).
–> total energy Kinzhal: ~11 bln J (overestimate as Kinzhal doesn’t impact at M=9, but let’s ignore that)
–> total energy Tomahawk: ~2.1 bln J
So the Kinzhal is up to ~5 times more powerful upon impact (in reality somewhat less).
Typical nuclear warhead yield of the type that easily fits into a Tomahawk or Kinzhal: 150 kt TNT equivalent, i.e. ~600 trln. J
–> total energy Tomahawk with nuclear warhead: ~600 trillion Joules, i.e. ~300.000 times more powerful than the conventional Tomahawk
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There is a lot of room here for game playing. What counts is the mission not the raw power. If you want to take out an army, then the difference if important. If you want to take out, meaning vaporize, a control and command center in a national capital, then it is not necessary to have a Hiroshima style blast. A separate but useful comparison: The Russians estimate that it wouldtake 100 US cruise missiles to destroy one of their Sarmat undergound launch silos.
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I do agree that Russia has a much more potent ability to quickly and reliably destroy enemy command centers far behind the line of contact.
This becomes even more scary when considering that e.g. the hypersonic Tsirkon can be launched from extremely silent cruise missile submarines (project 885/M, i.e. Yasen(-M)-class SSGNs) even with nuclear warheads.
Those submarines (4 are in service already, 5 more under construction, 3 more to be laid down) could sneak up to the US coastlines and vaporize e.g. Washington with almost no warning (~3 minutes at best, almost certainly a lot less due to small size, relatively low trajectory and – likely – a hypersonic scramjet cruise engine), which is very relevant for an effective first-strike capability (comparison: ICBMs take ~30 minutes and are much more easily detected when they launch – they are big, use only rocket engines and have a very high ballistic trajectory).
That is why I think officially Putin has said that these missiles are not in service yet on those submarines; the geostrategic impact is very severe. Meanwhile, back in Dec. 2021 the lead submarine (K-560 Severodvinsk) had demonstrated successful Tsirkon launches from submerged and surfaced positions (bolstering Putin’s “ultimatum”), so there really is no plausible technical reason why they should not be able to be put in service on those submarines.
And most recently, in his speech to the Duma last week, Putin has explicitly mentioned Tsirkon and that it has been successfully used in combat in Ukraine (Ukraine even confirmed that). I interpret that as another very strong warning signal.
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