In this morning’s interview on WION, India’s premier English-language global television channel, I was given the opportunity to comment on two of the key issues in yesterday’s international news: the latest statement to the press by Hungarian premier Viktor Orban that Russia has no intention of attacking a NATO country; and President Putin’s offer to conclude a cease-fire and negotiate a settlement with Ukraine based on the present line of contact between the warring parties.
Orban made his remark in the context of his efforts to cool down the hotheads among European Union leaders, such as the premier of Estonia, who want to step up the NATO presence in Ukraine arguing that the Ukraine is just the first country on the Continent that Russia seeks to overrun, that an attack on NATO countries will follow if the Kremlin is not stopped now. It also fits into his assertion a day ago that Hungary is reexamining its NATO obligations and refuses to be drawn into out-of-area fighting such as in Ukraine today.
However, as I note in this interview, Orban’s well-meaning statement about Russian war planning is incorrect. If NATO persists in escalatory behavior and poses an existential threat to Russian security, such as by sending aloft F16s on missions to attack Russian territory, then I believe it is highly likely that Russia will respond with a very serious counter-attack against the country that launched the provocation, whether it is a NATO country or not.
As regards President Putin’s answer to questions from the press yesterday during his visit to Minsk over Russia’s intentions for entering into negotiations with Kiev for an end to hostilities, I believe his proposal to declare a cease-fire based on the present line of contact was made in earnest. The context here was how Russia views the about to be convened ‘peace conference’ in Switzerland to which Russia has not been invited.
Putin’s point was that notwithstanding his dismissal of the Swiss gathering as an empty propaganda exercise on behalf of Ukraine, Russia is ready to enter into real negotiations to end the conflict if such an opportunity presents itself and without preconditions.
Yes, this would mean that Russia abandons the prospect of taking the entirety of the predominantly Russian-speaking Donbas. However, territorial conquest was never the motive driving the Special Military Operation, contrary to all the talk in the West of Mr. Putin’s alleged imperial ambitions. The Russian objectives from the day of its armed incursion in Ukraine in February 2022 were clearly stated: demilitarization and denazification. In effect, given the nature of the ruling clique in Kiev, these demands amount to regime change in Ukraine. And it is precisely regime change today, not territorial aggrandizement that motivates Mr. Putin and his government as they pursue the war.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=QMlkxhxH0x-1rDfD&v=IpetuEDD47M&feature=youtu.be
Transcription below by a reader
Eric Njoka, WION: 0:00
Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines. This is according to four Russian sources that have added that Putin is prepared to fight on if Kiev and the West do not respond. In response to Putin, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba said on social media X that the Russian leader was trying to derail a Ukrainian-initiated peace summit in Switzerland next month by using his entourage to send out phony signals about his alleged readiness to halt the war.
Freezing the conflict along current lines would leave Russia in possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions, but without full control of any of them. Such an agreement would fall short of the goals Moscow set for itself at the time, when it said that four of Ukraine’s regions Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, According to sources, Putin has clearly indicated to take on NATO and EU if Kiev does not respond to the proposed ceasefire.
1:09
However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said fears that Russia would mount an attack on any NATO member are unfounded. Hungary, a member of the European Union and NATO, has been refusing to provide military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Orbán said that his country was looking to redefine its membership in NATO to ensure the country cannot be involved in operations outside of the military alliance’s territory.
The Swiss peace summit in June is aimed at unifying international opinion on how to end the war. The talks were convened at the initiative of Zelensky, who said Putin should not attend. Switzerland has not invited Russia. Moscow has said the talks are not credible without it being there. Ukraine and Switzerland want Russian allies including China to attend the forum. Brazil and China signed a joint statement calling for peace talks in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine with the participation of both countries. The document, signed by Celso Amorim, a special adviser to Brazilian President Lula da Silva; and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says that the countries believe negotiation is the only viable solution to the war and the crisis.
2:30
Speaking in China on May 17th, Putin said that Ukraine may use the Swiss talks to get a broader group of countries to back Zelensky’s demand for total Russian withdrawal; but that would be an imposed condition rather than a serious peace negotiation. Both Russia and Ukraine have also said they fear the other side would use any ceasefire to rearm. Meanwhile the US on Friday announced a fresh tranche of 250 million US dollars of military aid for Ukraine, including ammunition, missiles, mines and artillery rounds as Russia presses on with its assault on the Kharkiv region. And the question that arises now is: are NATO and the EU moving closer than ever to conflict with Russia?
3:26
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow is an international affairs analyst, author, and also a historian, is now joining us live from Brussels. Welcome to the show, Doctor. We have seen reports of Hungary seeking to redefine its NATO membership. We have also seen some Baltic states which are NATO members, together with some EU nations marshalling up against Russia. Some critics are speculating a wider conflict or escalation between Russia, NATO, and the EU. How do you see it?
Dr Gilbert Doctorow: 3:56
I think it’s likely that Russia is going to push still harder against the Ukrainian forces in the coming weeks in the hope of forestalling the conflict that you just described. The escalation that is pending will be the introduction of F-16s into Ukraine, which is now talked about for July. And I think that we’re going to see some decisive moves by the Russians to prevent this happening, because it would be precisely a kind of trigger for a serious escalation and the risk of direct conflict with NATO countries.
The remark you made a few minutes ago that Russia could conceivably attack a NATO country, this coming from EU representatives, you have said that that is not in the cards. I don’t agree. It could very easily happen, but only if Russia is provoked in a way that demands a response. If, for example, the F-16s are flying from Moldova, from Romania or from Bulgaria into Ukrainian airspace and are attacking Russian positions, then I think it is entirely thinkable, entirely feasible that Russia would attack a NATO country.
WION: 5:18
Doctor, let’s try and decode this statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who says he is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines. And if the West doesn’t respond, then he will press on with Kiev. Ukraine has called the statement a bluff and a deterrent. But what does Putin really mean by this statement?
Doctorow:
Well, I think it comes back to what the war is all about. And a couple of minutes ago, you said that such a settlement would fall short of Putin’s objectives from the start of the war. I disagree. Putin’s objectives from the start of the war were not territorial gains for Russia, and that is still the case. So I think his statement, his assertion yesterday– this took place during a press conference at his meetings with Lukashenko in Minsk– he answered a question of a journalist in the way that you described, that he would accept a settlement at the present line of conflict, that yes, indeed, that would mean that Russia accepts a solution that falls short of retaking or taking the entire Donbass.
6:31
However, territorial ambitions were never part of the Russian game plan. They had two objectives, and they are still underway. And that is denazification and demilitarization; to put it in other words, regime change in Ukraine. That remains the primary Russian objective. And if that means that they stop their offensive and freeze the conflict at the present territorial situation, that will be perfectly acceptable to Moscow.
WION: 7:00
All right, I’ve been talking to Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, who’s an international affairs analyst. He’s also an author and a historian. Doctor, thank you very much for talking to us today.
For all the latest news, download the WION app and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Gilbert Doctorow 
I have never hear any Russian official saying that they will conduct negotiations following a ceasefire. Russians have said, since the fail of the Istanbul negotiations, that they will continue fighting until an agreement has been reached.
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