Draft evasion, escalation of military operations and other highly topical subjects in today’s Russia
My good friend and “comrade in arms” in the anti-war community, Ray McGovern, yesterday published an article on how The New York Times is stoking the war in Ukraine and goading the Biden administration to be ever more aggressive and irresponsible. Ray went on to remind us of the ignominious role played by NYT news reporters and their editorial board in promoting the Vietnam War, from the Tonkin Gulf Resolution that heralded the start of the real US engagement to the bitter end, all without a word of apology or regret in later years.
As a member of the Vietnam War generation in the USA, mention of that war brings up for me two words of great importance in the Russia that I see around me on this three week visit to St Petersburg: draft evasion and escalation.
It would be no exaggeration to say that the “partial mobilization” that was announced by the Kremlin in the past week is the number one item of news and discussion in the social networks here as well as on radio and television broadcasting. As I mentioned a day ago in my coverage of the national radio station Business FM, there is extensive examination on air of the implications of the call-up to military service for business and society in general.
A great deal of attention is directed at exemptions from service for various categories of the population, primarily, by relevance of their work to national defense and technological sovereignty. In this regard the most widely discussed industry is IT. The public is being told that software programmers are absolutely needed in their present workplaces to further the import substitution program. But does that extend to individuals and companies developing software for video games? And what about the owners-managers, the finance directors, the legal department heads of IT companies that do serve the defense industry and/or technology more broadly? As we hear on air, these other members of staff are also critical to the viability of the companies and so to the national interest. Without them the companies in question just fold.
Another related issue widely covered in the media here is draft evasion, in particular, by those leaving the country clandestinely by plane, by private car across the land frontiers, and even by electric scooters which move straight to the head of the queues at the border crossings. The Georgian border is now being closed by authorities in Tbilisi. The border with Kazakhstan is being closed down to auto traffic. But there is still the Finnish border, where 7 hour lines are forming.
Media reporting tells us that some 300,000 Russian males eligible for call-up, which now extends to age 55, have already fled the country. The significance of that number, if it is in fact reliable, depends on who these draft dodgers are: if they are skilled and experienced, say in computer programming and communications, then the loss is significant; if they are hair dressers and farm hands, then the loss of 300,000 in a population of 145 million is a drop in the bucket.
Those who are departing to evade the call-up are being denounced as “rats” by socially prominent personalities before the radio and television microphones. Ordinary women interviewed on the streets of Moscow or other multi-million cities across Russia tell members of the opposite sex to “be men” and do their duty.
I have no doubt that the European elites shudder at this very traditional appeal to sexist stereotypes that underlie national defense and patriotism. But such appeals definitely have resonance in Russia today. My 50-year old main taxi driver, infantry captain in the reserves, has little doubt he will be called up, if not in this first “partial” mobilization then in the general mobilization that is sure to follow once Russia declares war on Ukraine, which may be within the coming two weeks. And what does he say about it? “I already have the best years of my life behind me. I am ready to go and, if necessary, to die for my country.” Verbatim and without a hint of jingoism. It sounds a bit like the charming “my country write [sic] or wrong” that my grandfather Max, who emigrated to the U.S. from the Russian Empire in about 1910, wrote to me in the 1960s. Both expressions were heartfelt and merit respect.
In my description of how Business FM covers the impact of the mobilization on society and also the issue of lines at the borders, I said the broadcaster was neither pro-Putin, nor anti-Putin, but that is not entirely true. By its nature, such coverage provides useful information to draft dodgers, meaning the Opposition. I mention this to underline the fact that despite the heightened controls on society that the war has brought with it, Russian media are still often honest, transparent and useful in ways that your average Russia-basher in the West cannot conceive.
On the question of escalation, there is less public discussion but a lot of grumbling in the kitchens of ordinary folk that the war is proceeding much too slowly, that Russia should apply the devastating conventional weapons at its disposal to put an end to the fighting one-two-three. The hard-line patriots are calling for Defense Minister Shoigu, who in fact never served in the armed forces, to be replaced by someone with “balls,” like Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechnya Republic. Kadyrov sent his forces to the Donbas, where they spearheaded the conquest of Mariupol and are destroying the enemy now by tough urban warfare in other Donbas settlements
War by escalation was the policy which the Kennedy brain trust of the “the best and the brightest” implemented in Vietnam. From a modest expeditionary force, it led finally to the deployment of more than 600,000 troops in Vietnam and to vastly destructive bombing of that country and neighboring Laos and Cambodia. But to no avail. This seemingly rational doctrine was overturned when Nixon came to power and introduced the “madman” leader guise by his Christmas bombing of Hanoi in 1972. The U.S. then projected the image of a dangerous foe ready to inflict all manner of atrocities on the enemy, and some have argued this helped bring the North to the negotiating table. Regrettably, this approach to war seems not to have caught the attention of Mr. Putin’s inner circle of advisers. I recommend it to them.
But perhaps I am mistaken. Perhaps the mobilization is just a cover, suggesting continuation of the war under its present method of attrition, while de facto preparing the way for a change of tactics to destruction of the Ukrainian command and control at the Ministry of Defense and destruction of the civilian decision making instances by precision bombing in Kiev using unstoppable hypersonic missiles for which the latest air defense installations coming from the USA are useless. Perhaps the mobilization is merely to have ready boots on the ground to occupy and hold the Ukraine following the decapitation of its civilian and military leadership. Time will tell.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2022
Gilbert Doctorow 
Dear Sir,
thank you very much for your terrific work – I particularly appreciate the almost poetic language of your articles. I recommend your work to whoever I can.
I am Polish and currently reside in Poland – the amount of visceral anti-Russian propaganda here is mind-boggling and obscene. I have spent some time in Russia between 2007-2008 and come from a family of Polish-Siberian expatriates – despite all the suffering that my family endured during their Siberian years (my Father was born in Siberia and lost his sister and Father, a Polish soldier sent to the GULAG, there) we have always strived to remain objective when it comes to geopolitics.
Could you please comment on the geopolitics the Eastern European countries play against Germany and Russia?
My personal take is that the position Poland has taken in this conflict is not aimed at Russia, but in fact at Germany – Poland has been used by the USA as a wedge between Germany and Russia. George Friedman of STRATFOR wrote back in 2010 that both the American and Polish political establishments saw any political and economic alliance between Germany and Russia as a threat. In addition to that, Poles are afraid that a political and economic alliance between Germany and Russia would result in an economic subjugation of their country to both these powers. I cannot say I disagree with the latter claim, but I would still prefer this over a nuclear war.
Thank you.
Kind regards from Poland,
Andrew, PhD
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thank you for sharing your insights. you may well be right. however, Poland is a special case where other considerations also are important. Like Sweden and Turkey (Ottoman Empire), Polish political classes have a long memory and have never forgotten Polish positioning as Międzymorze. the land from Baltic to Black Seas. Moreover, there has been since the days of Foreign Minister Sikorski the ambition to be the forward shield of Europe against the barbarian hordes to the East, and in doing so, to rank with Germany and France as the driving force and decision-maker for Europe. Realistic or delusional? I leave that for the reader to judge.
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Dear Sir,
thank you very much for your response.
“[…] to rank with Germany and France as the driving force and decision-maker for Europe. Realistic or delusional?” – that, in fact, would be in line with my theory that the Polish political Establishment uses “the Ukrainian card” to undermine and dislodge Germany in Europe.
I have spent 4 years living and working in Germany and speak German fluently – I currently live in Wrocław, which is Lower Silesia. Unfortunately, and I wish that were not the case, but my personal experiences with working with Germans as a Pole have been only negative – there exists a certain degree of xenophobia in Germany against Poles. I hold a PhD in engineering from a Russell Group academic institution in the UK, so I do not get pushed around by my German managers that easily. I can witness, however, on a daily basis the way other Polish employees are treated by our German managers (and you cannot expect a foreigner to get promoted to a managerial position at a German company…). Regrettably, this pattern is fairly prevalent.
If Germany handles Poland in a similar fashion at a state level, I can clearly understand why the Polish political establishment is tempted to align with the US rather than with our self-righteous neighbours…
I sincerely hope I do not come across as mawkish or as a professional victim here – the above is just a personal observation that may shed some light on our regional geopolitics.
Thank you for the terrific work you are doing – I regularly make summaries of your articles in Polish and share them with my friends and family.
Kind regards,
Andrew, PhD
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and we share similar impressions in this domain of German attitudes and behavior towards Poles. I also worked for 5 years from offices in Germany serving UPS Deutschland from 1989 and then Mustangbekleidungswerke in Kunzelsau not far from Stuttgart. And I had family reasons as well as business reasons to visit Poland very often in the 1980s – namely a mother-in-law living in Kielce. From what I saw and heard then, Poland was ‘bite sized’ for Germany. From the late 80s they could slip across the border outside Berlin and run manufacturing plants they had set up on the Polish side to take advantage of colonial level wage scales. For a good long time, Polish manufacturing in German hands was limited to bits and pieces for assembly in Germany, not full cycle production on site. And Polish managers in these German companies by definition would not rise to the top. Here is the great difference with German-Russian relations. Russia was never ‘bite sized’ and Germans never could enjoy feellings of superiority in their dealings with Russian corporate as well as state officials. This is not to say that the Mittelstand did not move into Russia and set up operations. But it never had the satisfaction that came from ruling the roost in Poland.
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Dear Andrew,
May be you are the correct person to ask then. I am trying to find analytics on the current social/political/economic situation in Poland, but not from the perspective of “visceral anti-Russian propaganda”, but perhaps some more balanced view (if it exists in more than trace amounts). Since I grew up in Russia (Siberia to specific), but have been living in US for last ~20 years, I can read Russian and American/UK analytics, but sources on Poland are very very scarce. I found journalist Michal Krupa (e.g., https://consortiumnews.com/2022/04/29/ukraine-the-realist-father-of-polands-hawkish-pm/), but he does not write a lot (at least I cannot find it in English). Perhaps there are source in Polish, but only Russian and English would work for me, unfortunately. 🙂
Anyways, please let me know if anything comes to mind. If not, no problem.
Best
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Dear Kirill,
the only reliable and unbiased source of information I can think of is: “Raport – Wojsko, Technika, Obronność” magazine which is issued monthly. I have been following this magazine since 1998 – I recommend the commentaries by Mr. Tomasz Hypki (https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomasz_Hypki).
In addition to the above, I personally refrain from raising this subject during any social gatherings – if you say anything positive about Russia, you can quickly gain some enemies…
The amount of anti-Russian propaganda in Poland is simply mind-boggling.
Dissident view is suppressed.
Thank you for introducing me to Mr. Michał Krupa.
Best regards,
Andrew, PhD
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Thank you for your response and I am thrilled to discover that you are/were married to a Polish person.
Kind regards,
Andrew, PhD
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Russian folk kitchen talk is spot on. Long past time Russia took off her gloves and pound Ukraine & NATO decision making centers in Kiev & Ukraine. And why hasn’t Russia taken out rail and transportation to Eastern and Southern Ukraine? No excuse exists for that epic fail. Had this been done earlier the war would likely be over by now.
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The U.S. has continually threatened Russia and escalated the situation. Russia does not want to use its stockpile if they don’t need to do so. That’s why the SMO framework limited the support they gave to the Oblasts. Most of the fighting in the Donbas is being done by Donbas Militia forces. The Russian escalation taking place now–the referendums and partial mobilization–is a response to the billions in weaponry and assistance sent to the Ukraine by the U.S. (and, to a much lesser extent, the EU). Russia is now committing the necessary troops to achieve victory and the SMO framework, along with its restrictions, is going away. What that looks like on the future battlefield is yet to be shown. But there is no real doubt that Russia can arm the troops being sent.
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Whst on esrth are you talking about? Russia DOES have the weapons to destroy command centers and take out rail systems. This is widely known. The reason she didn’t use them is because by Russian law she can’t when operating under the SMO.
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Ordinary women interviewed on the streets of Moscow or other multi-million cities across Russia tell members of the opposite sex to “be men” and do their duty.
Women never forget what “men’s duties”, meaning all men can do for the comfort, and needs, of womanhood, are.
It’s one of the few things they aren’t apt to get forgetful of.
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Takes me back to the Great War…Women of England Say Go https://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/14592
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Could you provide a link to the Ray McGovern article?
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https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2022/09/25/nyt-on-ukraine-vietnam-dj-vu/
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Thank you. There is too much to say. Edward Bernays has ruled the U.S. since the time of Wilson… without ever being recognized, a true Wizard of Oz. And now already one of Mr. McGovern’s statements has been overtaken by events, “On the sanctions front, German politicians may not be able to resist turning on the spigot to North Stream 2, lest the European economy and the European people freeze this winter.” Well, that possibility has been taken care of by NATO. Not NATO you say? Russia? Of course, Russia. But for those of us who are delusional, it is reminiscent of the behavior of Britain in WWI maintaining the blockade of Germany for no other purpose than starving its population.
Nuclear weapons? The U.S. will use them first, causing Russia to respond. What will happen then is unfortunately probably predictable. Someone I know, we’ll leave it at that, in a discussion of these possibilities ultimately assured me that the U.S. had a missile defense system that would prevent Russia’s hitting the U.S.
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great write-up as usual. there have been MSM tales popping up about one guy “draft dodging” by setting himself on fire while another fellow supposedly attacked the head of a recruitment station. i just assumed it would be more like what you describe; similar to vietnam “war” avoiders heading over the border to canada.
i’ve been thinking similar thoughts on the “mobilization”: it’s a “Plan B” if thing go sideways but i don’t see any reason to fix what isn’t broken. that said, it depends on whether the new target for “de-ukrainification” is odessa or kiev. or both? i’d say following the nixon “madman” approach isn’t a great choice, though. the west already portrays putin that way and they’d lap up any “craziness” like dogs at a toilet. cold and rational wins the race.
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It will be interesting (forgive me for being academic here) to see how the war changes once the referendums are over and again how it changes when the mobilized Russian forces arrive at the front. Will the Russian army and air force begin a campaign that is far more destructive? Will the new troops be used to open new fronts or simply reinforce and push on the existing ones? Or both? The overall plan is not evident at this point.
One reason I don’t worry about the fighting (ex: around Lyman) is that it really doesn’t matter. Once the Russians bring new force to bear, they can take the ground back fairly easily. How that happens what may be frightening though. Many people have said the framework of the SMO won’t apply anymore. What will the new framework look like?
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You’re oversimplifying. There are always boundaries (and there were quite a few in the framework of the SMO); where will they be in this new stage of the war? Will the West continue to escalate (it seems so) and where will that lead? Where and how will the new Russian troops/weapons be deployed? How hard will Russia hit the Ukrainian infrastructure? There are a lot of questions yet to be answered.
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Take Odessa. Wipe out Kiev.
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Your comparison of Ukraine with Vietnam has some merit. No matter what the Americans threw at the Viet Cong, they never gave up. They were defending their country and the morale was on their side. Same applies to Ukraine.
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I would not, however, use the oversimplified (in my opinion) notion of one people and one monolithic country in the case of Ukraine (I am not sure about Vietnam). I do not really see how people from Donetsk, Lugansk or Kherson en masse defend Ukraine against Russia. Especially if one trusts the results of the referendums. It would be very different with western Ukraine.
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Russia is an infection. You need to remove it fully from the host. The Russia-leaning population of Donetsk, Lugansk or Kherson will not be sufficient, nor will that ‘unlimited’ supply of expensive, hypersonic missles.
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True, deluded Nazi talk by “iji”.
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Well you can put your trust in anything, but frankly I don’t see how you can trust something which 1.Which diametrically contradicts the results of the census taken 20 years ago 2. Took place in war time 3. Ignores the interests on ten of thousands displaced persons 4. Did not provide any alternative on the ballot paper other than yes/no to one proposition 5. Did not allow any other views to be presented prior to the ballot 5. Was the result of teams of workers who combed the streets to collect ballots and 6. Was organised by one side and coincides with the results that that side wanted in the first place. Do you really trust that?
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The courage of the taxi driver definitely merits respect. However, the idea of dying for “King and country” may sound romantic but precisely because of it, I find it abominable, much like crusades in the Middle Ages. People are forced to give up their lives for the geopolitical ambitions of those in power, and good for them if they find courage in some idea of the fatherland, but alas they are not going to Valhalla or to Heaven, like Kirill said, and that idea is wrong and evil. They are not even defending their homes (so far). As to the women, I bet if they were called up too they’d be less vocal. And surely not all are. My Russian colleague was pretty downbeat today, as I think someone in her family will go to war, an unthinkable idea until a few months ago.
I think the same of the Ukrainian leaders and their mad cry for resistance and whoever supports them. Surrendering and negotiating early on would have saved so many lives, civilian lives as well, and spared the world much woe.
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Elena,
I believe you are out of your depth commenting on the words of patriarch Kirill. He is, after all, more concerned with spiritual aspects of this struggle than temporal ones, such as defending one’s home. If we refer to the Bible, there is this text: “This is My commandment, that you love one another as I have loved you. 13Greater love has no one than this, that he lay down his life for his friends.” John 15:13. If we consider that through its military operation Russia is trying to protect extremely vulnerable people in Donetsk, Lugansk, etc. from the atrocities that they have expereinced for the last 8 years, who have appealed to Russia for help and who are absolutely no different from those people that live just across the border in Russia proper, these are precisely the “friends” that Russian soldiers are dying for. And if we consider that the words of John reflect those of the Lord, I think the meaning of patriarch Kirill’s words becomes very clear indeed and is very, very far from being “wrong and evil” as you have judged it.
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Just very happy that god/goddess is on the right side of this SMO. However if this was a war it might be different
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Dear Irina, I don’t follow Kirill much, so I may be wrong in interpreting his words. But as a Christian leader, for him to encourage war, in whichever way he does it, and especially by promising Heaven in exchange for death in battle, it is frankly medieval. I have no other word. He should be working relentlessly for a negotiated solution which would save many more vulnerable lives. To justify war in the name of the Gospel is the greatest blasphemy of all, for those who are believers. Instead, he speaks of the “satanic” ways of the West (e.g. the evil LBGTQ community, the transgenders, gender theory) and I’m sure he’s happy some of those will be shipped to hell by a bullet or a bomb. . Even today, Putin mentioned gender. Why? What does this have to do with war at all? Why is this important to his Russian audience?
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If by war you mean the present “interaction” between Russia and Ukraine, than I do not think that the speech was focused on it. My understanding was that the whole event had two parts: (i) recognition of new regions, and (ii) that, very roughly speaking, “Russia parts ways with the West” because “России с Западом не по пути”. Hence all those comments about colonization, genders etc. My impression is that you, for some reason decided for yourself, what the speech should be about (war), and then was confused about finding gender-related remarks there. To me, it sounds similar to all those mainstream western media sources when they say “Putin miscalculated, because he thought one thing and it turned out to be something totally different”. It is just pure guessing, they do not know who thinks what. So, please do not guess what the speech should have been about to only get confused about the appearance of gender there.
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Questioning balance of power thinking, the Flemish branch of peace movement Pax Christi argues for full spectrum security rather than the current individual model of alliances of selected nations which exclude “unwanted” members. Referring to events in Ukraine, in its “Manifest for Peace” it launched early September, it denounces NATO’s continued existence since the fall of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact.
The organisation concretely proposes an upgraded version of the OSCE to become a regional collective security organisation replacing NATO, and a relatively small European army with limited tasks. Working intelligently on conflict prevention and pacification of conflicts is urgently needed, Pax Christi argues.
An analysis of Pax Christi’s Manifest now features on Geopolitiek in context, see https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/manifest-voor-vrede-moedig-pleidooi-voorcollectieve-veiligheid/
For a translated version, juist hit the Google Translate box in the right upper corner.
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