How the Ukraine war may end as forecast by leading Western and Russian analysts: a REN TV (Moscow) feature program
I have remarked on various occasions that going back to 2016 I have been an invited guest on Russian commercial and state television channels directed at the RF domestic audience. Among these broadcasters was REN TV, who occasionally call upon me nowadays as well to join other commentators for feature programs on the Ukraine war.
One week ago, I spent half an hour with them on Skype responding to a long list of questions. The hour long program into which my responses were integrated was aired this past Saturday, and yesterday I received the link:
The program is in Russian. I and the other Western participants, with one exception, all were asked to give our answers in English, and the show’s producers then applied a Russian voice over. As for my Western ‘co-panelists,’ I am pleased to say that I was in good company, among them Larry Johnson and Alexander Rahr. The Russian commentators were also well credentialed.
What emerges from this program is the following:
- The Russians are inflicting destruction and death on the Ukrainian armed forces, all of which is shown graphically throughout the film
- The failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive opened the way to a political struggle at the top in Kiev, between Zelensky and his military commander general Zaluzhny, with other ambitious contenders like Tymoshenko adding to the cacophony.
- There is a real possibility of a coup d’etat against the Zelensky government led by the military
- Meanwhile, Western backers of Kiev have lost their enthusiasm and the flow of military and financial aid is drying up
- Continuation of the war will likely lead to further territorial losses for Kiev, with the Russians taking the Black Sea littoral while Hungary, Romania and Poland all seize their historic territories where their own ethnic groups are strongly present today.
- The utter collapse of the Ukrainian military is now a real possibility and would result in capitulation and surrender on Russian terms, meaning neutrality, removal of the neo-Nazi elements from the ruling elites and a reorganization of the military into a small army relying on domestically produced supplies
- Zelensky may be murdered by any one of several foreign intelligence agencies, and his best future will be to leave Ukraine for some foreign residence while the going is good
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Translations below into French (Youri) and German (Andreas Mylaeus)
Comment la guerre en Ukraine pourrait se terminer selon les prévisions
des principaux analystes occidentaux et russes :
un programme de REN TV (Moscou)
J’ai fait remarquer à plusieurs reprises que, depuis 2016, j’ai été invité sur des chaînes de télévision commerciales et publiques russes destinées au public national de la Fédération de Russie. Parmi ces chaînes figurait REN TV, qui fait parfois appel à moi pour rejoindre d’autres commentateurs dans le cadre d’émissions consacrées à la guerre en Ukraine.
Il y a une semaine, j’ai passé une demi-heure avec eux sur Skype à répondre à une longue liste de questions. L’émission d’une heure dans laquelle mes réponses ont été intégrées a été diffusée samedi dernier et j’ai reçu le lien hier :
L’émission est en russe. Les autres participants occidentaux et moi-même, à une exception près, avons tous été invités à donner nos réponses en anglais, et les producteurs de l’émission ont ensuite utilisé une voix off russe. En ce qui concerne mes « co-panélistes » occidentaux, je suis heureux de dire que j’étais en bonne compagnie, parmi lesquels Larry Johnson et Alexander Rahr. Les commentateurs russes étaient également très compétents.
Il ressort de ce programme le constat suivant :
1. Les Russes infligent des destructions et des décès aux forces armées ukrainiennes, ce qui est montré de manière graphique tout au long du film
2. L’échec de la contre-offensive ukrainienne a ouvert la voie à une lutte politique au sommet de Kiev, entre Zelensky et son commandant militaire, le général Zaluzhny, avec d’autres candidats ambitieux comme Timoshenko qui ajoutent à la cacophonie.
3. La possibilité d’un coup d’État contre le gouvernement Zelensky mené par les militaires est réelle
4. Entre-temps, les bailleurs de fonds occidentaux de Kiev ont perdu leur enthousiasme et le flux d’aide militaire et financière se tarit.
5. La poursuite de la guerre entraînera probablement de nouvelles pertes territoriales pour Kiev, les Russes s’emparant du littoral de la mer Noire tandis que la Hongrie, la Roumanie et la Pologne s’empareront de leurs territoires historiques où leurs propres groupes ethniques sont aujourd’hui fortement présents.
6. L’effondrement total de l’armée ukrainienne est désormais une possibilité réelle et entraînerait une capitulation aux conditions russes, c’est-à-dire la neutralité, l’élimination des éléments néo-nazis des élites dirigeantes et la réorganisation de l’armée en une petite armée s’appuyant sur des fournitures produites dans le pays.
7. Zelensky pourrait être assassiné par l’une ou l’autre des agences de renseignement étrangères, et son meilleur avenir serait de quitter l’Ukraine pour s’installer à l’étranger tant que les choses vont bien.
16. Januar 2024
Wie der Ukraine-Krieg laut Prognosen führender westlicher und russischer Analysten enden könnte: ein Beitrag von REN TV (Moskau)
Ich habe bei verschiedenen Gelegenheiten darauf hingewiesen, dass ich seit 2016 bei kommerziellen und staatlichen russischen Fernsehsendern, die sich an das einheimische Publikum der RF richten, zu Gast bin. Zu diesen Sendern gehörte auch REN TV, der mich auch heute noch gelegentlich einlädt, um gemeinsam mit anderen Kommentatoren Beiträge über den Ukraine-Krieg zu senden.
Vor einer Woche verbrachte ich eine halbe Stunde per Skype mit ihnen und beantwortete eine lange Liste von Fragen. Die einstündige Sendung, in die meine Antworten integriert wurden, wurde am vergangenen Samstag ausgestrahlt, und gestern erhielt ich den Link:
Die Sendung ist auf Russisch. Ich und die anderen westlichen Teilnehmer, mit einer Ausnahme, wurden alle gebeten, ihre Antworten auf Englisch zu geben, und die Produzenten der Sendung haben dann eine russische Synchronisation vorgenommen. Was meine westlichen “Mitdiskutanten” angeht, so war ich erfreulicherweise in guter Gesellschaft, darunter Larry Johnson und Alexander Rahr. Auch die russischen Kommentatoren waren sehr gut qualifiziert.
Aus dieser Sendung geht Folgendes hervor:
1. Die Russen fügen den ukrainischen Streitkräften Zerstörung und Tod zu, was im gesamten Film anschaulich gezeigt wird.
2. Das Scheitern der ukrainischen Gegenoffensive öffnete den Weg für einen politischen Kampf an der Spitze in Kiew, zwischen Zelenski und seinem militärischen Befehlshaber General Zaluzhny, wobei andere ehrgeizige Anwärter wie Timoschenko die Kakophonie noch verstärken.
3. Es besteht die reale Möglichkeit eines Staatsstreichs gegen die Regierung Zelenskij unter Führung des Militärs.
4. In der Zwischenzeit haben die westlichen Unterstützer Kiews ihren Enthusiasmus verloren, und der Fluss der militärischen und finanziellen Hilfe versiegt.
5. Die Fortsetzung des Krieges wird wahrscheinlich zu weiteren territorialen Verlusten für Kiew führen, wobei die Russen die Schwarzmeerküste einnehmen werden, während Ungarn, Rumänien und Polen ihre historischen Gebiete zurückerobern, in denen ihre eigenen ethnischen Gruppen heute stark vertreten sind.
6. Der völlige Zusammenbruch des ukrainischen Militärs ist nun eine reale Möglichkeit und würde zu einer Kapitulation und Übergabe zu russischen Bedingungen führen, d.h. Neutralität, Entfernung der neonazistischen Elemente aus den herrschenden Eliten und Umstrukturierung des Militärs zu einer kleinen Armee, die sich auf im Inland produzierte Güter stützt.
7. Zelensky kann von jedem beliebigen ausländischen Geheimdienst ermordet werden, und seine beste Zukunft wird darin bestehen, die Ukraine zu verlassen und ins Ausland zu gehen, solange es noch gut geht.
Gilbert Doctorow 
All of these predictions are plausible and events could occur suddenly, dramatically and without notice. But Zelensky’s 15 minutes of fame and his tired road show have been extended many times over. Here he pops up again in Davos, where all of the corrupt leaders of NATO and dying U.S. hegemony flock each year. The only reason that Zelensky is still around is because all of these phony humanitarians will lose face when he goes. Even the likes of Janet Yellen and Christine Lagarde have become little more than campaign propagandists. Propping up the greedy globalists against the ordinary people they pretend to serve. A thorough rebuke of the lot of them is needed before the end of 2024. Zelensky’s regime will likely collapse sometime before that.
LikeLike
Not the first time I’m hearing this crazy prediction that nearby countries (Hungary, Poland, etc.) will seize neighbouring territories. When I was in Ukraine last year I heard this prediction on the ground from some of the local farmers living in the Zakarpattia region. I still think that’s an insane idea, I don’t think that these small EU countries could attempt something like that unless the EU governance structure itself collapsed entirely.
Zelensky’s death might be the best way to save face for all sides, paint him as a martyr, move on.
As a Ukrainian I believe that although a military and political collapse is very much possible and imminent, that does not mean the end of Ukraine as a nation and cultural identity. Ukrainian cultural identity, language, and unity has only been reified by this war, and we’ll reorganize under a new sociopolitical order even if we lose militarily.
LikeLike
Anonymous, I agree that Ukraine will certainly survive in some form. The detail of that final form, and how quickly it comes about, is what is unknown. Ukrainian culture has never been in danger; even in Crimea there has been no attempt to “de-Ukraine” the people.
LikeLike
Ukraine will survive not just in “some form” but a new state may actually emerge stronger and more unified than before (albeit de-militarized).
LikeLike
Re: “Ukrainian cultural identity, language, and unity has only been reified by this war”
Interesting. I’m an outside observer, but it seems possible to me that this reification could go into reverse as the population becomes aware of the lies they’ve been fed by the West. The east and Crimea are already lost to Russia. Who wants to be Ukrainian whens that means forced military service in a losing war?
LikeLike
“..I don’t think that these small EU countries could attempt something like that unless the EU governance structure itself collapsed entirely.”
Poland is not so small in fact. But anyway, those are exactly the circumstances under which such annexations may occur. How likely is a collapse of the EU? Well protests in Germany (whose economy is shrinking at a faster rate than Russia’s) are growing and the AfD is in the ascendant. Attempts to turn the EU into an autocratic dictatorship (by removing Hungary’s voting rights) have just suffered a blow in the form of Slovakia’s leader backing Orban in opposing EU funding for the war. This war is testing EU unity to breaking point and it is stirring up nationalist sentiment across the continent.
I think it is likely the EU would collapse as a result of ‘irreconcilable differences’ before Ukraine’s military does and certain that it would before Russia capitulates. Whether the crazy neocons in the US and Britain try and forestall this by pushing other NATO nations into direct war with Russia beforehand is an interesting question.
LikeLike
I wonder if Hungary for example will have a choice, there is after all a Magyar ethnic enclave in Ukraine. Who could themselves push for reintegration into Hungary. There’re only stuck there because of Stalin after all.
A somewhat ethno-nationalist government like Orban’s which has made noises about the injustice of the Treaty of Trianon, would be hard pressed to refuse that.
As for the others I don’t believe there’s enough “native” Poles in Ukraine to make the idea of seizing Lvov practical now, dunno about the Romanians.
For Ukraine proper, it might be this’ll end like US Civil War (to which there are more parallels than WW2), where the separatist “Southern” identity is finally suppressed into a meare regional one by the “North” after long-years of simmering conflict & war.
After all, if the Chechens, Yakuts, Tuvians, Tatars and many many others can live peacefully within Russia. There’s frankly no excuse for Ukrainians not to do so.
That’s seems to be where the war heading, as I don’t see why Russia will go for a Minsk III nor trust *any* seprate Ukrainian state, not to dig up Bandera or remain infested by cargo cultists so long as NATO exists.
LikeLike
As things are so dire in Ukraine now, it’s likely Zelensky is desperate. Is there a possibility for a nuke strike? Has anyone seen confirmation of this recent article from Reuters?:
Russia’s Medvedev Warns of Nuclear Response if Ukraine Hits Missile Launch Sites By Reuters Russia’s Medvedev Warns of Nuclear Response if Ukraine Hits Missile Launch Sites (usnews.com)
Jan. 11, 2024 MOSCOW (Reuters) – “A senior ally of President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday that any Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites inside Russia with arms supplied by the United States and its allies would risk a nuclear response from Moscow. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that some Ukrainian military commanders were considering hitting missile launch sites inside Russia with Western-supplied long-range missiles.
He did not name the commanders or disclose more details of the alleged plan and there was no immediate reaction from Ukraine to his threat. “What does this mean? It means only one thing – they risk running into the action of paragraph 19 of the fundamentals of Russia’s state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence,” Medvedev wrote on the Telegram messaging app. “This should be remembered,” Medvedev said.
Paragraph nineteen of Russia’s 2020 nuclear doctrine sets out the conditions under which a Russian president would consider using a nuclear weapon: broadly as a response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or to the use of conventional weapons against Russia “when the very existence of the state is put under threat.” Medvedev made specific mention of point “g” of paragraph nineteen which deals with the nuclear response to a conventional weapons attack. Putin is the decision-maker when it comes to Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal, but diplomats say Medvedev’s views give an indication of hawkish thinking at the top of the Kremlin which has cast the war as an existential struggle with the West.
Kremlin critics have dismissed some of Medvedev’s nuclear threats in the past as attempts to grab attention or to dissuade the West from supplying Ukraine with more weapons. The United States and its allies have pledged nearly $250 billion in military and other support to Kyiv. he risk of nuclear escalation has hung over the Ukraine war since Russia sent thousands of troops into its neighbour in February 2022. Washington feared a Russian nuclear escalation in late 2022 and Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, that year communicated concerns to Moscow about any steps towards the use of a nuclear device. Russia and the United States are by far the world’s biggest nuclear powers: Putin controls 5,889 nuclear warheads while U.S. President Joe Biden controls about 5,244 nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Medvedev cast himself as a liberal moderniser when he was president from 2008-2012, but now presents himself as one of the fiercest anti-Western Kremlin hawks. (Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Andrew Osborn)
LikeLike
IMO, the question of the Biden administration resuming significant military aid depends more on the situation in Israel and the middle East. They’ll need to conserve any air defense resources if they want to keep all those bases in Islamic countries. Congress doesn’t really have a voice here, the White House can just declare yet another case of state of emergency and do whatever it wants (as it did sending Israel a big load of ammunition to slaughter the Gazans). Biden’s campaign can’t afford another “Afghanistan” scene until after November.
So the war continues at full strength in WWI mode. Today RF MoD reported over 900 hard losses of UA manpower, which is even on the high side. The weapons continue getting more potent and more easily accessible to anyone with an AliBaba account and a halfway decent education. Which doesn’t give a great deal of comfort to either Russian or Ukrainian fighters, nor for that matter to all the western PMC’s guarding the previously mentioned US bases. US policymakers likely to be indecisive and attempt to do “all of the above”, which is rarely good.
LikeLike