This past week has seen numerous small labor disturbances in Belgium culminating in yesterday’s massive shutdown of all public transport. And yet the pointlessness of these strikes and their utter misjudgment of the political and economic atmosphere of the day were reflected in the remarkable fact that the Friday strike has not attracted a single line of journalistic coverage in the two main French language dailies in Brussels, Le Soir and La libre belgique.
I say ‘pointless’ because the government is under great financial stress, having barely recovered from the extraordinary outlays associated with the Covid pandemic, and staggering under the direct and indirect costs of its support for Ukraine, in which it marches lockstep with the rest of the European Union. Inasmuch as Belgium was heavily indebted well before these latest crises, like France, Italy, Greece and a number of other EU states, it does not have the deep pockets of a Germany to pay for inflation-matching wage settlements for public workers.
I speak of ‘misjudgment,’ because the labor leaders fail to see that the extraordinary inflation which motivates their strike actions comes from strictly political decisions of the Government relating to the Ukraine war and sanctions. In other words, the solution to economic woes can only come from changes in the foreign and military policy of Belgium and the other EU member states.
In the given instance, when there is a real and immediate threat of the Ukraine conflict escalating into a war between NATO and Russia, meaning World War III, it behooves the leaders of the labor movement to acknowledge that posting purely economic demands looks, shall we say, shortsighted.
I do not mean to hold up Belgian labor leaders as being uniquely uncomprehending. Not at all. In neighboring France, the economy and normal life for the vast majority of Parisians are disrupted week after week by mass demonstrations against Macron’s reform of the pension age. What blinkers do these strikers and their leaders wear? Will it make any difference to anyone whether the legal retirement age in France is 64 or 62 when the provocative arming of Ukraine for victory over Russia being pursued by President Macron ends in an exchange of nuclear missiles that annihilates most if not all of the population in the Hexagon.
It is time to stop arming Ukraine, time to present to both parties to the conflict the demand for a cease fire and peace negotiations that go back to the principles Kiev accepted in March 2022 before Boris Johnson wrecked the negotiations by making further war a precondition of Western aid. Going back to the March drafts of a peace settlement means recognition for Ukraine of the status of a neutral state without foreign military bases on its territory. That is the minimum that Russia will accept. Other conditions such as the final borders of the Ukrainian state can be dealt with far more easily and pragmatically based on the territory held by the respective military forces when the cease-fire takes effect. Insofar as the settlement will be by an internationally recognized peace treaty, there can be no further exchanges of artillery across the border and no persecution of civilians for linguistic, ethnic religious or any other reasons on whichever side of the border they end up when the dust settles.
I am fully aware that this modest proposal will not bring joy to warriors awaiting total victory in Kiev or Moscow. But, as they say, a bad peace is better than a good war, especially in our nuclear age. To this I add a further condition that is essential if the economic misery Belgians, Frenchmen and others in the EU is to be corrected: upon conclusion of the peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia all sanctions imposed on Russia should end at once and unconditionally.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
Translations below into German (Andreas Mylaeus), Spanish (Hugo Guido), French (Youri) and Brazilian Portuguese (Evandro Menezes)
In der vergangenen Woche kam es in Belgien zu zahlreichen kleineren Arbeitsunruhen, die in der gestrigen massiven Stilllegung aller öffentlichen Verkehrsmittel gipfelten. Die Sinnlosigkeit dieser Streiks und ihre völlige Fehleinschätzung der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Atmosphäre des Tages spiegeln sich in der bemerkenswerten Tatsache wider, dass der Freitagsstreik in den beiden wichtigsten französischsprachigen Tageszeitungen in Brüssel, Le Soir und La libre belgique, keine einzige Zeile an journalistischer Berichterstattung hervorgebracht hat.
Ich sage “sinnlos”, weil die Regierung unter großem finanziellem Druck steht, da sie sich kaum von den außerordentlichen Ausgaben im Zusammenhang mit der Covid-Pandemie erholt hat und unter den direkten und indirekten Kosten ihrer Unterstützung für die Ukraine taumelt, bei der sie im Gleichschritt mit dem Rest der Europäischen Union marschiert. Da Belgien, wie Frankreich, Italien, Griechenland und eine Reihe anderer EU-Staaten, schon lange vor diesen jüngsten Krisen hoch verschuldet war, verfügt es nicht über die tiefen Taschen eines Deutschlands, um inflationsangepasste Lohnabschlüsse für die Beschäftigten des öffentlichen Dienstes zu zahlen.
Ich spreche von “Fehleinschätzung”, weil die Gewerkschaftsführer nicht erkennen, dass die außerordentliche Inflation, die ihre Streiks motiviert, auf rein politische Entscheidungen der Regierung im Zusammenhang mit dem Ukraine-Krieg und den Sanktionen zurückzuführen ist. Mit anderen Worten: Die Lösung für die wirtschaftliche Misere kann nur in einer Änderung der Außen- und Militärpolitik Belgiens und der anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten liegen.
Angesichts der realen und unmittelbaren Gefahr einer Eskalation des Ukraine-Konflikts zu einem Krieg zwischen der NATO und Russland, d.h. zu einem Dritten Weltkrieg, sollten die führenden Vertreter der Gewerkschaftsbewegung anerkennen, dass es, sagen wir, kurzsichtig ist, rein wirtschaftliche Forderungen zu stellen.
Ich möchte den belgischen Gewerkschaftsführern nicht unterstellen, dass sie besonders verständnislos sind. Ganz und gar nicht. Im benachbarten Frankreich werden die Wirtschaft und das normale Leben der großen Mehrheit der Pariser Woche für Woche durch Massendemonstrationen gegen Macrons Reform des Rentenalters gestört. Welche Scheuklappen tragen diese Streikenden und ihre Anführer? Welchen Unterschied wird es machen, ob das gesetzliche Renteneintrittsalter in Frankreich 64 oder 62 Jahre beträgt, wenn die von Präsident Macron betriebene provokative Aufrüstung der Ukraine für den Sieg über Russland in einem Atomkrieg endet, der den größten Teil, wenn nicht sogar die gesamte Bevölkerung des Hexagons auslöscht.
Es ist an der Zeit, die Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine einzustellen und beiden Konfliktparteien die Forderung nach einem Waffenstillstand und Friedensverhandlungen zu unterbreiten, die auf den Grundsätzen beruhen, die Kiew im März 2022 akzeptierte, bevor Boris Johnson die Verhandlungen zunichtemachte, indem er einen weiteren Krieg zur Vorbedingung für westliche Hilfe machte. Die Rückkehr zu den Entwürfen für eine Friedensregelung vom März bedeutet für die Ukraine die Anerkennung des Status eines neutralen Staates ohne ausländische Militärstützpunkte auf ihrem Gebiet. Das ist das Minimum, das Russland akzeptieren wird. Andere Bedingungen, wie die endgültigen Grenzen des ukrainischen Staates, können viel einfacher und pragmatischer auf der Grundlage des von den jeweiligen Streitkräften bei Inkrafttreten des Waffenstillstands gehaltenen Territoriums geklärt werden. Sofern die Regelung durch einen international anerkannten Friedensvertrag erfolgt, darf es keinen weiteren Austausch von Artillerie über die Grenze hinweg und keine Verfolgung von Zivilisten aus sprachlichen, ethnisch-religiösen oder anderen Gründen geben, egal auf welcher Seite der Grenze sie sich befinden, wenn sich der Staub gelegt hat.
Ich bin mir voll und ganz bewusst, dass dieser bescheidene Vorschlag den Kriegern, die in Kiew oder Moskau auf den totalen Sieg warten, keine Freude bereiten wird. Aber, wie man so schön sagt, ist ein schlechter Frieden besser als ein guter Krieg, besonders in unserem Atomzeitalter. Ich füge eine weitere Bedingung hinzu, die unerlässlich ist, wenn die wirtschaftliche Misere der Belgier, Franzosen und anderer EU-Bürger behoben werden soll: Mit dem Abschluss des Friedensvertrags zwischen der Ukraine und Russland sollten alle gegen Russland verhängten Sanktionen sofort und bedingungslos aufgehoben werden.
Huelgas y más huelgas en Bélgica y Francia: todo sin ningún propósito mientras el mundo se precipita hacia el Día del Juicio Final
La semana pasada se produjeron numerosos pequeños disturbios laborales en Bélgica que culminaron ayer con el cierre masivo de todo el transporte público. Y, sin embargo, el sinsentido de estas huelgas y su total error de juicio respecto a la atmósfera política y económica se reflejaron en el hecho notable de que la huelga del viernes no ha atraído una sola línea de cobertura periodística en los dos principales diarios en francés en Bruselas, Le Soir y La libre belgique.
Digo “sin sentido” porque el gobierno está bajo un gran estrés financiero, apenas se ha recuperado de los desembolsos extraordinarios asociados con la pandemia de Covid, y tambaleándose bajo los costos directos e indirectos de su apoyo a Ucrania, en la que marcha al unísono con el resto de la Unión Europea. En la medida en que Bélgica estaba muy endeudada mucho antes de estas últimas crisis, y al igual que Francia, Italia, Grecia y varios otros estados de la UE, no tiene los suficientes recursos de una Alemania, como para pagar acuerdos salariales que coincidan con la inflación con los cuales compensar a los trabajadores públicos.
Hablo de “error de juicio”, porque los líderes sindicales no ven que la inflación extraordinaria que motiva sus acciones de huelga proviene de decisiones estrictamente políticas del Gobierno relacionadas con la guerra y las sanciones de Ucrania. En otras palabras, la solución a los problemas económicos solo puede provenir de cambios en la política exterior y militar de Bélgica y los otros estados miembros de la UE.
En las actuales circunstancias, cuando existe una amenaza real e inmediata de que el conflicto de Ucrania se convierta en una guerra entre la OTAN y Rusia, es decir, la Tercera Guerra Mundial, corresponde a los líderes del movimiento obrero reconocer que publicar demandas puramente económicas parece, digamos, miope.
No pretendo sostener que los líderes sindicales belgas son particularmente incomprensivos. De ninguna manera. En la vecina Francia, la economía y la vida normal de la gran mayoría de los parisinos se ven interrumpidas, semana tras semana, por manifestaciones masivas contra la reforma de Macron referente a la edad de jubilación. ¿Qué anteojeras llevan estos huelguistas y sus líderes? ¿Hará alguna diferencia para alguien si la edad legal de jubilación en Francia es de 64 o 62 años, cuando el provocador armado de Ucrania para obtener la victoria sobre Rusia, activamente fomentado por el presidente Macron, termina en un intercambio de misiles nucleares que aniquila a la mayoría, si no a toda la población en el Hexágono?
Es hora de dejar de armar a Ucrania, es hora de presentar a ambas partes en el conflicto la demanda de un alto al fuego y negociaciones de paz que se remonten a los principios que Kiev aceptó en marzo de 2022, antes de que Boris Johnson arruinara las negociaciones al hacer de la escalada de la guerra una condición previa para la recepción de ayuda occidental. Volver a los borradores de marzo de un acuerdo de paz significa el reconocimiento para Ucrania del estatus de un estado neutral sin bases militares extranjeras en su territorio. Eso es lo mínimo que Rusia aceptará. Otras condiciones, como las fronteras finales del estado ucraniano, pueden abordarse de manera mucho más fácil y pragmática en función del territorio en poder de las respectivas fuerzas militares cuando el alto al fuego entre en vigor. En la medida en que el acuerdo se realizara mediante un tratado de paz reconocido internacionalmente, no puede haber más intercambios de artillería a través de la frontera ni persecución de civiles por razones lingüísticas, étnicas, religiosas o de cualquier otro tipo, sin importar en cual lado de la frontera se encuentren cuando el polvo se asiente.
Soy plenamente consciente de que esta modesta propuesta no traerá alegría a los guerreros que esperan la victoria total en Kiev o Moscú. Pero, como dicen, una mala paz es mejor que una buena guerra, especialmente en nuestra era nuclear. A esto añado otra condición que es esencial para corregir la miseria económica de los belgas, franceses y otros en la UE: tras la conclusión del tratado de paz entre Ucrania y Rusia, todas las sanciones impuestas a Rusia deben terminar de una vez y sin condiciones.
Des grèves et encore des grèves en Belgique et en France :
en vain, alors que le monde se dirige vers le Jugement dernier.
La semaine dernière a été marquée par de nombreux petits conflits sociaux en Belgique, dont le point culminant a été la fermeture massive de tous les transports publics hier. Pourtant, l’inutilité de ces grèves et leur erreur totale d’appréciation de l’atmosphère politique et économique du jour se sont reflétées dans le fait remarquable que la grève de vendredi n’a pas attiré une seule ligne de couverture journalistique dans les deux principaux quotidiens de langue française à Bruxelles, Le Soir et La libre Belgique.
Je dis « inutile » parce que le gouvernement est soumis à de fortes pressions financières, ayant à peine récupéré des dépenses extraordinaires liées à la pandémie de Covid, et titubant sous les coûts directs et indirects de son soutien à l’Ukraine, dans lequel il marche au même pas que le reste de l’Union européenne. Dans la mesure où la Belgique était lourdement endettée bien avant ces dernières crises, comme la France, l’Italie, la Grèce et un certain nombre d’autres États de l’UE, elle n’a pas les poches profondes de l’Allemagne pour payer les accords salariaux de compensation de l’inflation pour les travailleurs du secteur public.
Je parle d’erreur d’appréciation, car les dirigeants syndicaux ne voient pas que l’inflation extraordinaire qui motive leurs actions de grève provient de décisions strictement politiques du gouvernement concernant la guerre et les sanctions contre l’Ukraine. En d’autres termes, la solution aux difficultés économiques ne peut venir que de changements dans la politique étrangère et militaire de la Belgique et des autres États membres de l’UE.
Dans le cas présent, alors qu’il existe une menace réelle et immédiate de voir le conflit ukrainien dégénérer en une guerre entre l’OTAN et la Russie, c’est-à-dire en une troisième guerre mondiale, il incombe aux dirigeants du mouvement ouvrier de reconnaître que la présentation de revendications purement économiques semble, disons, à courte vue.
Je ne veux pas dire que les dirigeants syndicaux belges sont les seuls à ne pas comprendre. Ce n’est pas du tout le cas. En France voisine, l’économie et la vie normale de la grande majorité des Parisiens sont perturbées semaine après semaine par des manifestations de masse contre la réforme de l’âge de la retraite de Macron. Quelles sont les œillères de ces grévistes et de leurs dirigeants ? Le fait que l’âge légal de la retraite en France soit de 64 ou de 62 ans fera-t-il une quelconque différence pour qui que ce soit lorsque l’armement provocateur de l’Ukraine en vue d’une victoire sur la Russie poursuivi par le président Macron se terminera par un échange de missiles nucléaires qui anéantira la majeure partie, voire la totalité, de la population de l’Hexagone ?
Il est temps de cesser d’armer l’Ukraine, de présenter aux deux parties au conflit la demande d’un cessez-le-feu et de négociations de paix qui reviennent aux principes acceptés par Kiev en mars 2022 avant que Boris Johnson ne fasse échouer les négociations en faisant de la poursuite de la guerre une condition préalable à l’aide de l’Occident. Revenir aux projets d’accord de paix de mars signifie reconnaître à l’Ukraine le statut d’État neutre sans bases militaires étrangères sur son territoire. C’est le minimum que la Russie acceptera. D’autres conditions, telles que les frontières définitives de l’État ukrainien, peuvent être réglées beaucoup plus facilement et de manière pragmatique sur la base du territoire détenu par les forces militaires respectives au moment de l’entrée en vigueur du cessez-le-feu. Dans la mesure où le règlement se fera par un traité de paix internationalement reconnu, il ne pourra plus y avoir d’échanges de tirs d’artillerie à travers la frontière ni de persécution de civils pour des raisons linguistiques, ethniques, religieuses ou autres, quel que soit le côté de la frontière où ils se retrouveront lorsque la poussière sera retombée.
Je suis pleinement conscient que cette modeste proposition ne réjouira pas les guerriers qui attendent la victoire totale à Kiev ou à Moscou. Mais, comme on dit, une mauvaise paix vaut mieux qu’une bonne guerre, surtout à l’ère nucléaire. J’ajoute à cela une autre condition essentielle pour remédier à la misère économique des Belges, des Français et des autres citoyens de l’UE : dès la conclusion du traité de paix entre l’Ukraine et la Russie, toutes les sanctions imposées à la Russie devraient être levées immédiatement et sans condition.
Greves e mais greves na Bélgica e na França: tudo sem propósito, enquanto o mundo se lança para o Juízo Final
Na semana passada, houve inúmeros pequenos distúrbios trabalhistas na Bélgica, culminando na paralisação maciça de todos o transporte público ontem. E, no entanto, a inutilidade destas greves e sua avaliação totalmente incorreta das atmosferas política e econômica atuais se refletiram no notável fato de que a greve de sexta-feira não atraiu uma única linha de cobertura jornalística nos dois principais jornais de língua francesa em Bruxelas, Le Soir e La Libre Belgique.
Digo ‘inútil’, porque o governo está sob grande pressão financeira, mal tendo se recuperado dos gastos extraordinários associados à pandemia da Covid e cambaleando sob os custos diretos e indiretos de seu apoio à Ucrânia, no qual marcha em sintonia com o resto da União Européia. Como a Bélgica estava muito endividada bem antes destas últimas crises, como França, Itália, Grécia e vários outros estados da UE, ela não tem os fundos, como a Alemanha, para pagar por acordos salariais correspondentes à inflação para os servidores públicos.
Falo de ‘avaliação incorreta’ porque os líderes trabalhistas não conseguem ver que a extraordinária inflação, que motiva suas ações de greve, vem de decisões estritamente políticas do governo, relacionadas à guerra na Ucrânia e às sanções. Em outras palavras, a solução para os problemas econômicos só pode vir de mudanças na política externa e de defesa da Bélgica e de outros estados membros da UE.
No caso em questão, quando há uma ameaça real e imediata do conflito na Ucrânia se transformar numa guerra entre a OTAN e a Rússia, ou seja a Terceira Guerra Mundial, cabe aos líderes do movimento trabalhista reconhecer que se fazerem demandas puramente econômicas parece, diga-se, míope.
Não quero dizer que os líderes trabalhistas belgas sejam excepcionalmente incompreensíveis. De jeito nenhum. Na vizinha França, a economia e a vida normal da grande maioria dos parisienses são interrompidas de semana em semana por manifestações em massa contra a reforma da idade da aposentadoria por Macron. Que antolhos estes grevistas e seus líderes usam? Fará alguma diferença para alguém se a idade legal de aposentadoria na França é de 64 ou de 62 anos, quando a provocação dos armamentos para a Ucrânia, para a vitória sobre a Rússia, sendo perpetrada pelo presidente Macron leva a uma troca de mísseis nucleares que aniquila a maioria da população, senão toda, do Hexagone.
É hora de se parar de armar a Ucrânia, é hora de se apresentar a ambas as partes no conflito a demanda por um cessar-fogo e negociações de paz que volte aos princípios que Kiev aceitou em março de 2022, antes de Boris Johnson destruir as negociações exigindo mais guerra como pré-condição da ajuda ocidental. Voltando-se aos rascunhos do acordo de paz de março significa o reconhecimento da Ucrânia como um estado neutro, sem bases militares estrangeiras em seu território. Este é o mínimo que a Rússia aceitará. Outras condições, como as fronteiras finais do estado ucraniano, podem ser tratadas de forma muito mais fácil e pragmática com base no território detido pelas respectivas forças militares quando o cessar-fogo entrar em vigor. Na medida em que o acordo será um tratado de paz reconhecido internacionalmente, não pode haver mais trocas de balas de canhão através da fronteira e nenhuma perseguição de civis por razões linguísticas, étnicas, religiosas ou quaisquer outras, seja em que lado da fronteira eles terminem quando a poeira assentar.
Estou plenamente ciente de que esta modesta proposta não trará alegria aos guerreiros, que aguardam a vitória total em Kiev ou Moscou. Mas, como dizem, uma paz ruim é melhor do que uma guerra boa, especialmente em nossa era nuclear. A isto, adiciono uma outra condição que é essencial para que a miséria econômica de belgas, franceses e outros na UE seja corrigida: após a conclusão do tratado de paz entre a Ucrânia e a Rússia, todas as sanções impostas à Rússia devem terminar de uma só vez e incondicionalmente.
Gilbert Doctorow 
Indeed – I agree – unconditionally. I suppose we can dream 😎
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A Dutch national with 42 years in Belgium, I think I know something about the extremely complex Belgian society and national and regional politics. I think that the trade unions rightly stand up for the purchasing power and working conditions of the “common” people. In my book “De wereld na Trump en Merkel” (The world after …) I advocate a basic income for everyone, and a drastic simplification of the social system.
What Gilbert does not mention are issues such as the index, the wage law and the explosive rise in corporate profits. It is not necessarily wages in Belgium that fuel inflation, but rather corporate profits. Shareholders have nothing to complain, the working class does. The Belgian economy is characterized, among other things, by a productivity that greatly overshadows neighboring countries. The index only covers part of inflation.
Furthermore, the tax system is very much out of balance. Divisions in the country hold back any serious tax reform that would distribute the burden more equitably. And there are too many governments, sub-governments, parliaments, paid political seats in parastatal utilities. In each of those parliaments there are too many “people’s representatives” who only act as voting cattle, after all, the party chairmen determine the policy. Democracy would be served with far fewer parliamentarians. Brussels alone has 19 municipalities, each with its own mayor, aldermen and councillors. The “compensation” to all those mandataries is simply excessive. That’s where the pain is. “Ordinary” people shouldn’t be the victims of everything.
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@Paul Lookman
I think you have missed Gilbert’s point entirely. The West is entering a period of epochal change. All the complexities of the current system you describe no do not matter at all. They cannot be untangled, they cannot be corrected with some new policy like basic income. Those are old answers that don’t match the coming reality. What we are more likely to see is a rapid and painful de-complexification. Assuming that the future will be just like the past is a serious mistake.
As in an old Western movie, the bridge is out but the train keeps going at full speed. Will the train stop or plunge into the abyss? Sadly, I see know sign that the conductor is ready to apply the breaks. Meanwhile the passengers, like the striking workers Gilbert mentioned, are squabbling over trivialities.
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Have I? With or without any financial consequences of the Ukraine war, the burden of any government expenditure must be born fairly between those who earn an income from labour and those who do so from capital. Higher incomes must be taxed progressively, and enterprises/multinationals on their business in the country. I oppose a society in which the government curbs the labor market and lets employers set their prices freely. The factor ‘labour’ must be allowed to equally compete freely.
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Dear Paul,
You have in your Comment given a fairly detailed description of why labor in Belgium has grievances that bring them to strike. I will agree with most of the points in your critique, however I see justifications for the bloated and inefficient government levels that you overlook. And I also see a major injustice in the tax system that you overlook. I will speak to these issues at the end of this comment.
I begin with what I see as the overarching issue today: the war. In order to improve the share of the economic pie that goes to labor, to make government more efficient and democratic (an objective which I believe is dead wrong given the nationalities question in Belgium) you have to live a few months if not years longer than you, I and the rest of our compatriots here in this country and fellow citizens of the European Union are likely to live if the present war in and over Ukraine takes the course that Washington is preparing for us.
Stage one of the Ukraine war as scripted by the USA is to fight against Russia to the last Ukrainian. Stage two is to fight against Russia to the last European. In the past few weeks, the USA has delivered to Bremerhaven in Germany and to Gdansk in Poland vast quantities of military hardware that is not going to Kiev but is being prepared for the NATO-Russia war. A week ago, one of the US “Doomsday Planes” that coordinate action in a nuclear war came to Europe via Iceland. Smart observers noted this could be an exercise to prepare nuclear capabilities for the coming war.
Victoria Nuland remains the most important personality in the State Department, head and shoulders above her nominal boss, Blinken. This is the lady who famously, while planning the coup d’etat of February 2014 that overthrew Ukrainian President Yanukovich, was recorded as telling the then U.S. ambassador to Kiev “fuck the EU.” Well, my friend, that is exactly what she is cooking up today and we are in the soup.
For all of these reasons, I say put hold on defending workers’ claims to better take home pay and put all efforts behind finding a diplomatic solution to the ongoing war before it spins out of control.
Now as regards the complexities of Belgian governance, the duplication, triplication of government jobs and parliamentary slots: it all has a justification specific to this kingdom, and that is to keep Flemings and Walloons from slitting one another’s throats. For better or worse, this is one country constituted by two nations, of which one, the Flemish, outnumbers substantially the French-speaking part. In any transparently democratic structure, the minority would be outvoted permanently, much as is the case in a number of African countries whose borders were drawn up by colonial powers without an interest in the ethnic balances of the population. Those countries have bloody civil wars. Belgium doesn’t, which is why it is better not to try to improve democracy here.
Finally, as regards the tax system: Yes, it is cruel to the working classes. I find it abhorrent that the 50% tax on wages begins at the paltry level of tram drivers. But the tax system is also overly indulgent to owners of real estate. Since a large percentage of the readers of these essays lives in the USA, allow me to bring them into the picture in terms they will understand at once: the taxes that Belgian homeowners pay on their property are about 10 times lower than what US homeowners pay. Yes, ten times. And so the government plays catch-up with its tax on wages. That may be fine for the middle income folks, but is cruel to low wage earners who are, for the most part not property owners. Can this be fixed? Yes, and surely it will be fixed by some future legislators, but for that to happen we have to live through a few more days. Which is why ending the war has to be the top priority of everyone.
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I still stand by my belief from the beginning of this war that sanctions are the only good thing to come out of all this for Russia (ok, sanctions and the land bridge to Crimea).
For the past 30 years, Russia has been plagued by enormous capital flight, cumulatively running into the trillions of dollars, as rich Russian oligarchs took as much of their liquid wealth to the West as they could, and later as the Russian government built up very large forex reserves (a form of capital flight). All that money which used to leak out of Russia, the fruit of its natural resource exports propping up various European asset markets, is now stuck in Russia. This will over time lead inexorably to lower domestic interest rates, and a very large increase in domestic investment capital. This, coupled with all the various economic niches previously filled by Western companies in Russia which are now open, opens the way to a Russian development that goes well beyond natural resource extraction and agricultural sales. It also will force the Russian government and society to (once again) place greater emphasis on domestic science and technology.
Russia has been a large capital exporter. It doesn’t need Western capital, literally doesn’t need it from a balance of payments and investment perspective. Russia was dependent on western technology and professional expertise, but this could be the kick in the pants the Russian elite needs to develop its own expertise. What it can’t develop domestically it can source from China, but naturally the Russian state will try to avoid total dependence on China and as a result pursue domestic competencies.
So while this is bad for Europe, I’m not convinced sanctions are bad for Russia. If domestic competition is maintained (Russian regulatory agencies are actually quite good), and if capital stays in Russia instead of just flowing to Dubai and HK instead of London and rest of Europe, then sanctions will be a good thing for Russian development
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I believe the sanctions, along with the extreme Russophobia and outright hatred from the West, have shaken Russia out of any stupor they were in. If the sanctions ended today, then Russia would still pursue the policies of domestic growth and competencies to which you refer. So, yes, I agree with your assessment of the impact of the sanctions. It has, and will in the end, be a positive for Russia.
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Blood. Russia has shed the blood of its sons and daughters in Ukraine. The outcome of the war will be determined solely by Russia, not by the labor unions or the governments of the West. Having said that, the unbelieveable pressure on the neocons, particularly their need to win the next Presidential election, may make them resort to a nuclear exchange, which as I have pointed out will be commenced by a Russian first strike.
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A Russian first strike is not in Moscow’s playbook. It neither needs them. Hypersonic missiles appear to be outpacing nuclear weapons, and nuclear disarmament out of object, see https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2023/03/06/will-hypersonic-missiles-make-nuclear-weapons-obsolete/
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Impressive and terrifying account, Gilbert, in reply to my post. However, I am less pessimistic about the outcome of the current war than you appear to be. The war of attrition will, according to most observers, last at least another year, maybe two, and then we will be in the middle of election time in the US. Thats not a time for war. The arms transports to Germany and Poland are one aspect, but they also need to be manned. Is it perhaps more a matter of Washington rollling its muscles? In any case, NATO cannot assemble enough well-trained troops. And there is hardly enough ammunition production capacity in the West. An attack with nuclear weapons will immediately be answered, not nuclear but with hypersonics. The Americans fear those.
I really don’t see any connection between a possible imminent major European war in one or two years’ time, and the legitimate rights of ‘ordinary’ people. It is precisely the better off who must be motivated to donate more to the government budget to finance the war. We agree that we must put all efforts behind finding a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine war. With China having successfully brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, why not take another look at China’s proposal?
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