My latest essay on the wrongheadedness of Belgian and French labor leaders fiddling while Rome burns elicited a number of Contact messages that are too important to keep to myself. What is at issue is how we read the scenario for the further course of the ongoing war in and over Ukraine: will it go on for years at the present level of intensity or is some devastating escalation to be feared in the coming months when the long-promised Ukrainian counter-offensive gets under way.
Allow me to say up front that no one knows for sure. But some observers point to schisms within the Washington establishment, in particular within the State Department, over how determined Russia is to react to violation of its red lines.
One can blame Vladimir Putin all one wishes for the restraint in prosecuting this war that is misinterpreted as cowardice or indecisiveness in the halls of power in Washington. Assigning blame for the misreading of Russia’s intentions changes nothing. The result is that the more hawkish side of the Washington establishment is urging upon the President measures that risk the onset of a full-blown war between Russia and the European powers in the immediate future.
I say “European powers” rather than NATO, because nearly all commentators agree that the U.S. has no intention of putting its own soldiers and homeland at risk when it can play with self-sacrificing proxies. The incredible acceptance of such rules by European leaders has been demonstrated manifestly by German Chancellor Schulz’s silence over the U.S. planned and executed destruction of the Nord Stream II pipelines.
Stage one of the Ukraine war as scripted by the USA was to fight against Russia to the last Ukrainian. Stage two is to fight against Russia to the last European.
In the past few weeks, the USA has delivered to Bremerhaven in Germany and to Gdansk in Poland vast quantities of military hardware that is not going to Kiev but is being prepared for a war with Russia to be fought by either of those states with or without NATO backing. A week ago, one of the US “Doomsday Planes” that coordinate action in a nuclear war came to Europe via Iceland. Smart observers noted this could be an exercise to prepare nuclear attacks on Russia using warheads and delivery systems already on European soil.
Let us remember that Victoria Nuland remains the most important personality in the State Department, head and shoulders above her nominal boss, Blinken. This is the lady who famously, while planning the coup d’etat of February 2014 that overthrew Ukrainian President Yanukovich, was recorded as telling the then U.S. ambassador to Kiev “fuck the EU.” Well, according to information in the public domain that is exactly what she is cooking up today and we, Europeans, are in the soup.
Nuland is said to be the loudest mouth calling for provision to Kiev of long range precision missiles for a summer attack on Crimea which will surely elicit a game-changing level of violence in the response from Russia, possibly entailing strikes against the logistical centers in Poland, Romania and Germany which are delivering the new weapons systems to Ukraine. There are ways this can happen which will make invocation of NATO’s ‘one for all and all for one’ Article 5 problematic.
This is not to say that the United States is not at the same time preparing a back-up scenario in case the Russians go for the principal villain and not for the European implementers. In the past week, a nuclear capable B-52 bomber of the U.S. Air Force is said to have been rehearsing an attack on St Petersburg.
In conclusion, I ask those of my European readers who are leaders in financial institutions, in wealth management, in manufacturing industry, in global shipping, in universities and in widely respected think tanks (from my LinkedIn account I know that some of you are daily followers of these essays), I ask you to use your voices, in public and in private to save Europe from the disaster that may befall us in a matter of months. Salvation will come only when several more European heads of state join Viktor Orban in voting against further arms to Kiev and for an immediate cease-fire. What we need now is definitive peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev based on the principle of a neutral Ukraine.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
Translations below into French (Youri), German (Andreas Mylaeus), Brazilian Portuguese (Evandro Menezes) and Spanish (Hugo Guido)
Le scénario de Washington pour la phase deux consiste à combattre la Russie jusqu’au dernier Européen
Mon dernier article sur le manque de lucidité des dirigeants syndicaux belges et français, qui se contentent de bricoler pendant que Rome brûle, a suscité un certain nombre de messages de contact qui sont trop importants pour que je les garde pour moi. La question est de savoir comment nous interprétons le scénario de l’évolution de la guerre en cours en Ukraine et autour de l’Ukraine : se poursuivra-t-elle pendant des années au niveau d’intensité actuel ou faut-il craindre une escalade dévastatrice dans les mois à venir, lorsque la contre-offensive ukrainienne, promise de longue date, sera lancée ?
Permettez-moi de dire d’emblée que personne n’est sûr de rien. Mais certains observateurs font état de clivages au sein de l’establishment de Washington, en particulier au sein du département d’État, quant à la détermination de la Russie à réagir en cas de violation de ses lignes rouges.
On peut blâmer Vladimir Poutine autant que l’on veut pour la retenue dont il fait preuve dans la poursuite de cette guerre et qui est interprétée à tort comme de la lâcheté ou de l’indécision dans les allées du pouvoir à Washington. Le fait de blâmer la mauvaise interprétation des intentions de la Russie n’y change rien. Le résultat est que le côté le plus agressif de l’establishment de Washington exhorte le président à prendre des mesures qui risquent de déclencher une véritable guerre entre la Russie et les puissances européennes dans un avenir immédiat.
Je parle de « puissances européennes » plutôt que de l’OTAN, car presque tous les commentateurs s’accordent à dire que les États-Unis n’ont pas l’intention de mettre en danger leurs propres soldats et leur patrie lorsqu’ils peuvent jouer avec des intermédiaires qui se sacrifient. L’incroyable acceptation de telles règles par les dirigeants européens a été démontrée de manière flagrante par le silence du chancelier allemand Schulz sur la destruction planifiée et exécutée par les États-Unis des pipelines Nord Stream II.
La première étape de la guerre en Ukraine, telle qu’elle a été programmée par les États-Unis, consistait à lutter contre la Russie jusqu’au dernier Ukrainien. La deuxième étape consiste à combattre la Russie jusqu’au dernier Européen.
Ces dernières semaines, les États-Unis ont livré à Bremerhaven, en Allemagne, et à Gdansk, en Pologne, de grandes quantités de matériel militaire qui n’est pas destiné à Kiev, mais qui est préparé en vue d’une guerre avec la Russie, qui serait menée par l’un ou l’autre de ces États, avec ou sans le soutien de l’OTAN. Il y a une semaine, l’un des « avions du Jugement dernier » américains qui coordonnent les actions en cas de guerre nucléaire est arrivé en Europe via l’Islande. Des observateurs avisés ont noté qu’il pourrait s’agir d’un exercice visant à préparer des attaques nucléaires contre la Russie à l’aide d’ogives et de dispositifs de lancement se trouvant déjà sur le sol européen.
Rappelons que Victoria Nuland reste la personnalité la plus importante du département d’État, dépassant de la tête et des épaules son patron de fonction, M. Blinken. C’est cette femme qui, lors de la préparation du coup d’État de février 2014 qui a renversé le président ukrainien Yanukovich, a dit à l’ambassadeur américain à Kiev « fuck the EU ». Eh bien, selon des informations du domaine public, c’est exactement ce qu’elle prépare aujourd’hui et nous, Européens, sommes dans le pétrin.
Nuland est considérée comme la personne la plus véhémente pour réclamer la fourniture à Kiev de missiles de précision à longue portée en vue d’une attaque contre la Crimée en été, ce qui ne manquera pas de susciter une réaction d’une violence inédite de la part de la Russie, avec éventuellement des frappes contre les centres logistiques de Pologne, de Roumanie et d’Allemagne qui livrent les nouveaux systèmes d’armement à l’Ukraine. Il y a plusieurs façons de procéder qui rendront problématique l’invocation de l’article 5 de l’OTAN « un pour tous et tous pour un ».
Cela ne veut pas dire que les États-Unis ne préparent pas en même temps un scénario de secours au cas où les Russes se tourneraient vers le principal ennemi et non vers les exécutants européens. La semaine dernière, un bombardier B-52 à capacité nucléaire de l’armée de l’air américaine aurait testé une attaque sur Saint-Pétersbourg.
En conclusion, je demande à mes lecteurs européens qui sont des leaders dans les institutions financières, dans la gestion du patrimoine, dans l’industrie manufacturière, dans le transport maritime mondial, dans les universités et dans les groupes de réflexion largement respectés (d’après mon compte LinkedIn, je sais que certains d’entre vous suivent quotidiennement ces articles), je vous demande d’utiliser vos voix, en public et en privé, pour sauver l’Europe du désastre qui pourrait s’abattre sur nous dans quelques mois. Le salut ne viendra que lorsque plusieurs chefs d’État européens se joindront à Viktor Orban pour voter contre l’envoi de nouvelles armes à Kiev et pour un cessez-le-feu immédiat. Ce qu’il nous faut maintenant, ce sont des négociations de paix définitives entre Moscou et Kiev, fondées sur le principe d’une Ukraine neutre.
Mein letzter Aufsatz über die Unvernunft der belgischen und französischen Gewerkschaftsführer, die tatenlos zusehen, während Rom brennt, hat eine Reihe von Contact-Meldungen hervorgerufen, die zu wichtig sind, um sie für sich zu behalten. Es geht um die Frage, wie wir das Szenario für den weiteren Verlauf des Krieges in und um die Ukraine einschätzen: Wird er noch jahrelang in der derzeitigen Intensität weitergehen oder ist in den kommenden Monaten eine verheerende Eskalation zu befürchten, wenn die lange angekündigte ukrainische Gegenoffensive in Gang kommt.
Um es gleich vorweg zu sagen: Niemand weiß das mit Sicherheit. Einige Beobachter verweisen jedoch auf Meinungsverschiedenheiten innerhalb des Washingtoner Establishments, insbesondere innerhalb des Außenministeriums, darüber, wie entschlossen Russland auf die Verletzung seiner roten Linien reagieren wird.
Man kann Wladimir Putin die Schuld für die Zurückhaltung bei der Führung dieses Krieges geben, die in den Machtzentralen in Washington als Feigheit oder Unentschlossenheit fehlinterpretiert wird, so viel man will. Die Schuldzuweisung für die Fehlinterpretation von Russlands Absichten ändert nichts. Das Ergebnis ist, dass die Falken in Washingtons Establishment den Präsidenten zu Maßnahmen drängen, die das Risiko eines ausgewachsenen Krieges zwischen Russland und den europäischen Mächten in unmittelbarer Zukunft mit sich bringen.
Ich sage “europäische Mächte” und nicht NATO, denn fast alle Kommentatoren sind sich einig, dass die USA nicht die Absicht haben, ihre eigenen Soldaten und ihr Heimatland zu gefährden, wenn sie mit aufopferungsvollen Stellvertretern spielen können. Die unglaubliche Akzeptanz solcher Regeln durch die europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs wurde durch das Schweigen des deutschen Bundeskanzlers Scholz über die von den USA geplante und durchgeführte Zerstörung der Nord Stream II-Pipelines deutlich demonstriert.
Die erste Phase des von den USA geplanten Ukraine-Krieges bestand darin, Russland bis auf den letzten Ukrainer zu bekämpfen. Stufe zwei ist der Kampf gegen Russland bis zum letzten Europäer.
In den letzten Wochen haben die USA in Bremerhaven in Deutschland und in Danzig in Polen große Mengen an militärischem Gerät geliefert, das nicht nach Kiew geht, sondern für einen Krieg mit Russland vorbereitet wird, der von einem dieser Staaten mit oder ohne Unterstützung der NATO geführt werden könnte. Vor einer Woche kam eines der “Doomsday Planes” der USA, die den Einsatz in einem Atomkrieg koordinieren, über Island nach Europa. Kluge Beobachter bemerkten, dass es sich dabei um eine Übung zur Vorbereitung von Atomangriffen auf Russland handeln könnte, bei der Sprengköpfe und Trägersysteme verwendet werden, die sich bereits auf europäischem Boden befinden.
Erinnern wir uns daran, dass Victoria Nuland nach wie vor die wichtigste Persönlichkeit im Außenministerium ist und ihren nominellen Chef, Blinken, um Längen überragt. Dies ist die Dame, die bekanntlich bei der Planung des Staatsstreichs vom Februar 2014, der den ukrainischen Präsidenten Janukowitsch stürzte, dem damaligen US-Botschafter in Kiew sagte: “Scheiß auf die EU”. Nun, nach öffentlich zugänglichen Informationen ist es genau das, was sie heute kocht, und wir, die Europäer, sitzen in der Suppe.
Nuland soll die lauteste Stimme sein, die dazu aufruft, Kiew Langstrecken-Präzisionsraketen für einen Sommerangriff auf die Krim zur Verfügung zu stellen, was Russland mit Sicherheit zu einer gewalttätigen Reaktion veranlassen wird, die möglicherweise Angriffe auf die logistischen Zentren in Polen, Rumänien und Deutschland nach sich ziehen wird, die die neuen Waffensysteme an die Ukraine liefern. Dies kann auf verschiedene Weise geschehen, was die Berufung auf den NATO-Artikel 5 “Einer für alle und alle für einen” problematisch machen wird.
Das soll nicht heißen, dass die Vereinigten Staaten nicht gleichzeitig ein Back-up-Szenario für den Fall vorbereiten, dass die Russen sich für den Hauptbösewicht und nicht für die europäischen Vollstrecker entscheiden. In der vergangenen Woche soll ein nuklearfähiger B-52-Bomber der US-Luftwaffe einen Angriff auf St. Petersburg geprobt haben.
Abschließend bitte ich meine europäischen Leser, die in führenden Positionen in Finanzinstituten, in der Vermögensverwaltung, in der verarbeitenden Industrie, in der globalen Schifffahrt, in Universitäten und in weithin angesehenen Denkfabriken tätig sind (von meinem LinkedIn-Account weiß ich, dass einige von Ihnen diese Aufsätze täglich verfolgen), ihre Stimme öffentlich und privat zu erheben, um Europa vor der Katastrophe zu bewahren, die uns in wenigen Monaten ereilen kann. Rettung wird es nur geben, wenn sich mehrere europäische Staatschefs Viktor Orban anschließen und gegen weitere Waffenlieferungen an Kiew und für einen sofortigen Waffenstillstand stimmen. Was wir jetzt brauchen, sind endgültige Friedensverhandlungen zwischen Moskau und Kiew auf der Grundlage des Prinzips einer neutralen Ukraine.
O cenário de Washington para a segunda fase é combater a Rússia até o último europeu
Meu último ensaio, sobre os líderes trabalhistas cabeças-duras belgas e franceses, como que estando tocando o violino enquanto Roma arde, provocou uma série de contatos que são importantes demais para não se os compartilhar. O que está em questão é como inferimos o cenário do curso posterior da guerra em andamento na e pela Ucrânia: continuará por anos no nível de intensidade atual ou atingirá uma escalada devastadora, a ser temida nos próximos meses, quando a delongada contra-ofensiva ucraniana entrar em andamento?
Adianto que ninguém sabe ao certo. Mas alguns observadores apontam para cismas dentro do estabelecimento de Washington, em particular no Departamento de Estado, sobre o quão determinada está a Rússia a reagir à violação de suas linhas vermelhas.
Pode-se culpar Vladimir Putin, tanto quanto se queira, pela controle na condução desta guerra, que é mal interpretado como covardia ou indecisão nos corredores do poder em Washington. Atribuir culpa pela leitura incorreta das intenções da Rússia não muda nada. O resultado é que o lado mais belicista do contingente de Washington está pedindo do presidente medidas que podem fazer surgir uma guerra plena entre a Rússia e as potências européias num futuro breve.
Digo “potênciaseuropéias” em vez da OTAN porque quase todos os comentaristas concordam que os EUA não têm intenção de colocar seus próprios soldados e país em risco, quando podem jogar com agentes abnegados. A incrível aceitação de tais regras pelos líderes europeus foi demonstrada manifestamente pelo silêncio do chanceler alemão Schulz diante da destruição, planejada e executada pelos EUA, dos gasodutos Nord Stream [I e] II.
A primeira fase da Guerra da Ucrânia, como roteirizado pelos EUA, deveria lutar contra a Rússia até o último ucraniano. A segunda fase é lutar contra a Rússia até o último europeu.
Nas últimas semanas, os EUA entregaram em Bremerhaven na Alemanha e em Gdansk na Polônia vastas quantidades de equipamento militar que não vão para Kiev, mas estão sendo preparados para uma guerra com a Rússia, a ser travada por um destes estados, com ou sem apoio da OTAN. Há uma semana, um dos “aviões do dia do juízo final” dos EUA, que coordenam a ação em uma guerra nuclear, veio para a Europa através da Islândia. Observadores astutos notaram que este poderia ser um exercício para preparar ataques nucleares à Rússia, usando-se ogivas e sistemas de lançamento já em solo europeu.
Recordemos que Victoria Nuland continua sendo a personalidade mais importante no Departamento de Estado, de longe acima de seu chefe no papel, Blinken. Esta é a senhora infame que, planejando o golpe de estado de fevereiro de 2014 que derrubou o presidente ucraniano Yanukovich, foi gravada dizendo, ao então embaixador dos EUA em Kiev, “foda -se a UE”. Bem, de acordo com informações de domínio público, é exatamente o que ela está cozinhando hoje e nós, europeus, estamos na sopa.
Diz-se que Nuland é a voz mais alta clamando pela provisão de mísseis de precisão de longo alcance a Kiev para um ataque à Crimeia no verão, que certamente provocará um nível de violência na resposta da Rússia que mudaria o jogo, possivelmente implicando ataques contra centros logísticos na Polônia, Romênia e Alemanha, donde se estão entregando os novos sistemas de armas à Ucrânia. Existem maneiras pelas quais isto pode acontecer que tornaria problemática a invocação do Artigo 5 da OTAN, ‘um por todos e todos por um ‘.
Isto não quer dizer que os Estados Unidos não estejam ao mesmo tempo preparando um cenário alternativo, caso os russos venham atrás do vilão principal e não dos estafetas europeus. Na semana passada, dizia-se que um bombardeiro B-52 da Força Aérea dos EUA estava ensaiando um ataque a São Petersburgo.
Em conclusão, peço a meus leitores europeus, que são líderes em instituições financeiras, em gestão de patrimônio, na indústria, no transporte, nas universidades e em institutos amplamente respeitados (da minha conta do LinkedIn, sei que alguns de vocês acompanham estes ensaios), peço que vocês usem suas vozes, em público e em particular, para salvar a Europa do desastre que pode nos ocorrer em questão de meses. A salvação ocorrerá apenas quando vários chefes de estado europeus se juntarem a Viktor Orban para se votar contra o envio de mais armas a Kiev e por um cessar-fogo imediato. O que precisamos agora são negociações de paz definitiva entre Moscou e Kiev, com base no princípio de uma Ucrânia neutra.
El escenario de Washington en la fase dos es luchar contra Rusia hasta el último europeo.
Mi último ensayo sobre la equivocación de los líderes sindicales belgas y franceses que juguetean mientras Roma arde provocó una serie de mensajes de contacto que son demasiado importantes para guardarlos para mí. La cuestión es cómo leemos el escenario para el proceso posterior de la guerra en curso en Ucrania y sobre Ucrania: ¿continuará durante años al nivel actual de intensidad o es de temer una escalada en los próximos meses cuando se ponga en marcha la contraofensiva ucraniana prometida desde hace mucho tiempo?
Permítanme decir de antemano que nadie lo sabe con certeza. Pero algunos observadores señalan cismas dentro del establishment de Washington, en particular dentro del Departamento de Estado, sobre cuán decidida está Rusia a reaccionar ante la violación de sus líneas rojas.
Uno puede culpar a Vladimir Putin todo lo que desee por la moderación en la ejecución de esta guerra que se malinterpreta como cobardía o indecisión en los pasillos del poder en Washington. Acusar por la mala interpretación de las intenciones de Rusia no cambia nada. El resultado es que el lado más agresivo del establishment de Washington está instando al presidente a tomar medidas que corren el riesgo de iniciar una guerra en toda regla entre Rusia y las potencias europeas en el futuro inmediato.
Digo “potencias europeas” en lugar de OTAN, porque casi todos los comentaristas están de acuerdo en que Estados Unidos no tiene intención de poner en riesgo a sus propios soldados y patria cuando puede jugar con representantes abnegados. La increíble aceptación de tales reglas por parte de los líderes europeos ha sido demostrada manifiestamente por el silencio del canciller alemán Schulz sobre la destrucción planificada y ejecutada por Estados Unidos de los gasoductos Nord Stream II.
La primera etapa de la guerra de Ucrania según el guion escrito por los Estados Unidos fue luchar contra Rusia hasta el último ucraniano. La segunda etapa es luchar contra Rusia hasta el último europeo.
En las últimas semanas, Estados Unidos ha entregado a Bremerhaven en Alemania y a Gdansk en Polonia grandes cantidades de material militar que no va a Kiev, pero que está disponible para una guerra con Rusia que será librada por cualquiera de esos estados con o sin el respaldo de la OTAN. Hace una semana, uno de los “Aviones del Juicio Final” estadounidenses que coordinan la acción en una guerra nuclear llegó a Europa a través de Islandia. Los observadores inteligentes señalaron que esto podría ser un ejercicio para preparar ataques nucleares contra Rusia utilizando ojivas y sistemas de lanzamiento que ya están en suelo europeo.
Recordemos que Victoria Nuland sigue siendo la personalidad más importante del Departamento de Estado, muy por encima de su jefe nominal, Blinken. Esta es la famosa dama quien, mientras planeaba el golpe de Estado de febrero de 2014 que derrocó al presidente ucraniano Yanukovich, fue grabada diciéndole al entonces embajador de Estados Unidos en Kiev “que se joda la UE”. Bueno, según información de dominio público, eso es exactamente lo que está cocinando hoy y nosotros, los europeos, estamos en la sopa.
Se dice que Nuland es la boca más estruendosa que pide suministrar a Kiev misiles de precisión de largo alcance para un ataque de verano en Crimea que seguramente provocará un nivel de violencia que cambiará el juego en la respuesta de Rusia, posiblemente ocasionando ataques contra los centros logísticos en Polonia, Rumania y Alemania quienes están entregando los nuevos sistemas de armamento a Ucrania. Hay formas en que esto puede suceder que harán problemática la invocación del Artículo 5 de la OTAN “uno para todos y todos para uno”.
Esto no quiere decir que Estados Unidos no esté preparando al mismo tiempo un escenario de respaldo en caso de que los rusos vayan por el villano principal y no por los implementadores europeos. En la última semana, se dice que un bombardero B-52 con capacidad nuclear de la Fuerza Aérea de los Estados Unidos ensayó un ataque contra San Petersburgo.
En conclusión, les pido a aquellos de mis lectores europeos que son líderes en instituciones financieras, en gestión de patrimonio, en la industria manufacturera, en el transporte marítimo global, en universidades y en gabinetes de análisis estratégicos ampliamente respetados (por mi cuenta de LinkedIn sé que algunos de ustedes son seguidores diarios de estos ensayos), les pido que usen sus voces, en público y en privado para salvar a Europa del desastre que puede ocurrirnos en cuestión de meses. La salvación vendrá solo cuando mucho más jefes de estado europeos se unan a Viktor Orban para votar en contra de más armas a Kiev y por un alto al fuego inmediato. Lo que necesitamos ahora son negociaciones de paz definitivas entre Moscú y Kiev basadas en el principio de una Ucrania neutral.
Indeed, but who will break this enchantment? “ What we need now is definitive peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev based on the principle of a neutral Ukraine”.
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The only script was a Russian one and that went belly up in the opening phase of the war. That leaves two rather vague war goals. The Russian one is to hold on to as much face-saving territory as possible and hope that over time the West will lose stomach in its support for the Ukraine. The Western one is to force the Russians back as far as possible to internationally recognised frontier with Western arms and Ukrainian soldiers. Contrary to the farcical claims from Skabaeeva, Soloviov et al, it is not fight Russia per se. Fighting Russia is a distraction from the real challenge of confronting China.
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Forget Skabeeva, Soloviov et al! Do you ever read or watch what is being said in US media about degrading Russia’s military, about breaking up Russia, about installing NATO in Ukraine? Better to follow what is going on in the States, the source of the evil, than to mock Russians who put up on the screen what is shown on CNN and other US mainstream
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Nobody seems to know what the point of this war actually is. Depending on who you talk to, it’s about preventing Ukraine from joining NATO; or it’s about defending the people of Donbass; or it’s about making Ukraine a compliant Russian vassal state; or it’s about fighting Satanism and transgenderism; or it’s about eradicating Ukraine as a nation; or it has some vague goal like “restructuring the security architecture of Europe.”
Your guess (Putin’s original Plan A went awry, so he had to come up with a Plan B rather quickly) makes sense to me based on the evidence, but I still have no idea if it’s actually true. Meanwhile, if you told me in February 2022 that over a year later, the armies would still be duking it out in World War I fashion over a frontline that barely moves, I wouldn’t have believed you.
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What is the point of this war? Thank you for bringing that forward.
From my perspective, living in the US, this war is best understood in the context of Great Power contests, or realpolitik, or geopolitics, which I consider interchangeable for this purpose.
After WW II, most of the previous Great Powers (global colonial powers) were destroyed or greatly reduced. For example: England, France, Italy, Germany, and Japan.That left the US and the USSR, the two industrial powers that came out of WW II still standing. Thus, during the Cold War, global power was divided between the USA (and its allies) and the USSR (and its allies). Following the dissolution of the USSR in 1989-1990, the US became the sole global superpower (both economically and militarily). That could have been a happy outcome, but the US pursued a strategy of global empire based on its economic and military power. This imperial ambition was hidden beneath a cloak of ‘liberal democracy and free-market economics’. It was also called the ‘New World Order’ by President George Bush Sr. (sounding somewhat ominously like a Star Wars movie), or the ‘Rules-Based Order’ by President Barack Obama.
Whatever it was called, the new US foreign policy adhered closely to the Wolfowitz Doctrine, drafted in 1991-1992, which extended the earlier Monroe Doctrine to the entire globe. In other words, it proclaimed that the world was America’s oyster and that no competition would be tolerated. This led to the successive debacle of Iraq War I under George Bush Sr., Iraq War 2 and the Afghanistan War under George Bush Jr., the Libya War, Syria War, and Ukraine Civil War (2014) under Barack Obama, and now the Ukraine War under Joe Biden.
In the Great Powers perspective, the US presently faces two major competitors for global power: Russia and China. Russia because it is a nuclear superpower and China because it is an economic superpower (and nuclear power). If that perspective is accurate, then it is reasonable that the US would attempt to subdue Russia, and then China. I believe the current events support that view.
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I doubt that in the terrible scenario of a NATO-Russia war, precious American lives will be spared. Putin said that war would be a modern war. With hypersonic missiles, what is the difference between London and Washington? And there is always Alaska, as one of the panelists in Sixty Minutes once said. That war would be an enormous gamble. But I’m no military expert, so I’m sure others know better. Peace negotiations MUST come as soon as possible, and that is what people on the street want, but governments are not listening. US citizens must speak louder. Meanwhile, I can see that in the UK news of the war have somehow lost the top spot, and in Italy too. Until the next threat close to home, people get accustomed to anything, even a nuclear war looming.
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“US citizens must speak louder.”
Remember 2002-2003? We shouted against the war in Iraq and we were ignored.
To be heard requires something more violent than ‘speaking’.
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I agree on Victor Orban’s importance.
He and Hungry are of massive geolocation importance to the US (and Russia) vis a vis a potential corridor for Russia when Russia finishes Ukraine. Note the “message” in the link below along with the latest US color revolutionist entering Hungry for “democracy” over the last two weeks. The US ramps up for overthrow because Hungry is that important.
https://gatesofvienna.net/2023/03/nice-little-country-you-got-there-hungary/
I hope VO makes the insurrectionist/insurgent communists go away. Quietly. He’ll need to do this in order to keep his country. All of this around the world is a fight to the death. Christ or satanic chaos is the fundamental operating system at work. When people understand this, the pieces fit.
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Hungary is forseen (with Serbia when traitor pro EU Vucic will be regime changed by real Serbs), Hungary will become the main hub for natgaz and oil from Russia (Turkey will become a hub as well). This is why a corridor to the Maygar part of Ukraine is a must not only for Russia but for China brics +, as China also wants to turn Hungary as the BRI hub(already happening), with rail connections to Liege + Liège vast cargo airport and then Antwerp port.Alibaba (chinese sort of Amazon) is building his main cargo and distribution center at Liège Airport. Trains are already linking Budapest with China, these links must be continued to Liège.
Of course the VderLeyen nato clique will try to destroy all of this by any mean possible.
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Too much verbage hides your key point: “Stage one of the Ukraine war as scripted by the USA was to fight against Russia to the last Ukrainian. Stage two is to fight against Russia to the last European.”
Yes.
I am playing what little part I can.
The Decline of Diplomacy
https://yesxorno.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-diplomacy
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Putin’s constant retreats in the face of Western escalation have made the war almost a game of baiting the bear for various governments in the West. America plays for keeps, which is why it routinely does things that if reversed on itself, would cause howls in American media and government. Putin meanwhile is playing the “reasonable man” in his own head, for who knows what audience, while he is called a war criminal all over the entire developed world.
There are consistent shelling and attacks on Belgorod, which result in no response. I strongly suspect strikes on Crimea will also result in no real response, other than an anyway planned new strike on innocent electricity transformers all across Ukraine (with power restored within 24 hours as has now become the norm).
Oh, I think the Ukrainian manpower pool is quite enough to hold the line against Russia for plenty more time, without any need to bring Germany or Poland into the war. Ukraine conservatively has 22 million people under Kiev gov right now, 60% of them men, leaving (many) millions still to potentially be called up. It is basically one big armed camp, all concerns for economy and GDP being put aside as that is covered by the West.
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Sean,
1. Russia is claiming territory populated by Russian ethnic and speaking people. This territory is also economically valuable. Russia can only take territory with this composition of people, irrespective of economics. Russia has no interest in Europe. Indeed, it is abandoning Europe. Goodbye.
2. Ukraine has no “man power” left. It is sending troops to the front line in Bakhmut with only a few weeks of training. They are old or very young. They report their chances of returning from the front lines as 30 to 70%. This report is from the “Kiev Independent”. Wake up. Your analysis is poor.
Here is what is going to happen:
A) Bakhmut will fall during the next month or two. Russia will take it, and the high ground to its west. Bakhmut is the central point of the Ukrainian defense in Donetsk oblast, being the center for road and rail transport, and the center of the defensive network it built over the 8 years before the Special Military Operation. When Bakhmut is taken, all of this is lost to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). They are then completely screwed. Russia will roll-up the defensive lines to the north and south west. Their control over road and rail means the AFU have no logistics, and the Russians will position their 10:1 artillery on the high ground. Ukraine then loses the Donetsk oblast up to the Kramatrosk and Slaviansk lines, which are at the western edge of the oblast. Understand?
B) This creates two problems. Russian forces can then move into northern Donestsk oblast from Lugansk. The balance of forces changes in Zaparozhia. Essentially, Russia achieves the core of its war aims (Donetsk and Lugansk) and secures the land-bridge/southern flank. This is a complete loss for Ukraine. They have no way of recovering any significant portion of this territory. They lose.
This is what is about to happen. Russia has 250 000 troops ready to make it so. Ukraine has old men and poorly trained recruits.
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Ukraine even at the most extreme estimates has has had 150,000 KIA, with a similar number wounded enough to be unable to fight again. This sounds like a lot, but remember that there are something like 15 million men of fighting age in Ukraine currently. Ukraine has not come even close to exhausting its manpower. They are doing coercive mobilizations, dragging people off the street. And what has come of it? They can continue to do this for years and years given their population. The Russian military has trouble mounting any offensive at all. Look at what happened at tiny town Ugledar recently. If there are reinforced concrete structures like Soviet-era apartment buildings, that is the end of any Russian army offensive. Wagner can do offensives but even they do so at an absolutely glacial pace. Who among us, honestly, could have predicted that more than a year into this war, downtown Donetsk would still be shelled daily and the Russians would still be struggling to take what amounts to Ukraine’s first line of defense in the Donbas?
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I cannot “like” your comment so I say it here. Thanks! Europeans are scared enough of the possible confrontation with Russia plus they have the US manipulating their governments like puppets in a show. The 2020s have death written all over them so far. It is Mr and Mrs Smith in Ohio who need to be scared into action, as they live in apathy and in their dream of enduring safety.
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You live in a fantasy world, wake up.
https://sonar21.com/rending-americas-fabric-of-lies-is-it-possible/
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Unable to respond to your reply below, Sean, I place it here.
I have made a prediction. We can re-assess in late May and find out whether I was correct.
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I don’t discount the possibility that Russia May exceed its so far poor performance going forward. There are some indications that Russian use of Orlan drones, krasnopol guided artillery, and most recently precision bombs from the air has had a step change up from around January this year. At the least this improves Russian attrition of Ukrainian forces. However, Russian generalship still seems very wanting. I don’t fault the initial Russian assault on Ugledar too much. It failed, lots of attempted assaults fail. But they kept doing the same thing day after day. Armored assaults through mined land, with hardly and artillery counter battery support. It just shows an inability to learn, and I think the failed push to Ugledar single-handedly convinced Putin to give up any broad offensive (luckily I may add, for Russia, if the broader assault would be anywhere near as incompetent as that toward Ugledar)
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You grossly underestimate the impact of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid. First, Russia has systematically targeted the large, high-voltage transformers needed for long-distance transmission. Those transformers will take years to replace. Second, Russia has targeted electrical generating plants, and they will also take years to repair. The fact that the lights are on in Kiev and Lviv and Kharkov does not mean that the electrical supply is adequate; it is not. You might also note that Russia did not begin destruction of Ukraine’s electrical system until after Ukraine attacked the Kerch bridge. Russia seems to choose its own time and place for action, rather than responding reflexively to provocation. In contrast to the US, which has very little impulse control.
As to manpower, there might be 12 million males living in Ukraine, but a lot of them are too old or too young to fight. And an army requires more manpower behind the lines than at the lines, many times more. And Ukraine is losing soldiers at a ratio of about 7:1 compared to Russia, and possibly higher.
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I don’t disagree with you but I think it’s worth noting that the people supporting the war (and here I refer to the common people, not the neocon elites) believe that Russia is losing as many, if not more, men than Ukraine and that the entire Russian army is now in Ukraine. Hence, the mobilized troops were only used to replace losses in the four Oblasts (according to them, up to 200k so far), not to build new formations of any kind. To them, Russia is barely hanging on and taking horrendous losses while doing so.
I only mention this to note the lack of reality among the people supporting the war. They are fed by Western propaganda and they take it in with glutenous approval.
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Passa da hora dos EUA abandonarem a arrogância que os caracterizam desde o final da segunda guerra, hoje a informação sobre fatos, é disseminada ao público mundial quase que em tempo real.
Muitos já estão vacinados contra notícias falsas, método predileto das autoridades norte americanas, sabem comparar seu modus operandi, massivamente utilizado na Síria, Iraque, etc.
Particularmente acredito que a maioria dos americanos, são gente de bem e de paz, muito alienados, porém pessoas de bem.
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Multiple reports (tbc) of hypersonic strikes on central NATO command and control in Kiev. Dozens high nato officers deads, 200 losses on nato side.
🔥🔥Des ressources américaines rapportent que lors d’une récente attaque sur Kiev, des missiles Kinzhal ont touché un centre de contrôle avec des officiers de l’OTAN, parmi lesquels il y a des morts et des blessés 💥
The link to the intel military article is now down (by nato, cia?)
https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/03/09/disaster-russian-hypersonic-missiles-wipe-out-us-nato-secret-command-in-kiev-dozens-of-top-us-officers-vaporized/?__cf_chl_tk=iQdTAxKUIFmjj_jyVCjKO5qAsBJ7.dOaLCHLphox_X0-1678638258-0-gaNycGzNDFA
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Note to readers: none of this destruction has been announced by official Russian military sources, including the daily briefings by Konoshenkov. Meanwhile Russian television reports from the field including from Bakhmut/Artyomovsk are far more restrained, far more cautious regarding the potential dangers posed by enemy forces with Western assistance than any of Russia’s cheerleaders in the West convey.
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Of course Russia will not confirm they destroyed nato headquarters in Kiev, even less Nato will ever confirm it..
The sudden use of multiple hypersonic missiles is clearly a ‘message’ to nato.
It already happened in march 22, near Llov where 350-400 nato officers and personnel had been killed or wounded by the first ever hypersonic missile ever used in a war in Europe.
Back to Syria the same happened in Alep in ‘western forces’ headquarter in a bunker(80 killed) including mossad agents, but with a more classical kalibr missile.
Everybody knows that in he intel community.
Plausible deniability is used on both sides strikes (same for the fake Biden scenario of the NS sabotage).S Hersh will provide us with more revelations this coming week.
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China’s share of manufacturing added value is greater than US and EU combined:
So I say bring it on. Why? To also see all US bases in Europe assaulted by enraged mobs given the body bags, the economic fall, the cut in social safety nets, etc., etc., etc.
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The funny thing is that it is easier for Ukrainians to buy Chinese goods than it is for Russians. Chinese companies pretty much adhere to American secondary sanctions on Russia.
For that matter, ever notice the large number of DJI (a Chinese company) quadracopter drones that Ukraine flies, jerry rigging them to drop bombs on Russian troops? Chinese companies are literally arming the Ukrainian military.
What China is doing regarding its only ally of note Russia is simply maintaining neutrality in this war. It is not sanctioning Russia, that is the extent of Chinese help.
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Thank you, Gilbert. Your essays are consistently my reliable source for cool-headed, even-handed analysis of the Ukraine situation. I hope and pray for the realists in my government to prevail over the neoconservatives.
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Sorry I am a bit confused and given the seriousness of the situation, I want to ensure I understand you correctly. In the beginning of the article you state: “In the past few weeks, the USA has delivered to Bremerhaven in Germany and to Gdansk in Poland vast quantities of military hardware that is not going to Kiev but is being prepared for a war with Russia to be fought by either of those states…” Then you state further down: “the logistical centers in Poland, Romania and Germany which are delivering the new weapons systems to Ukraine. ” Could you clarify? Thanks for everything you are doing to give us the facts
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Russia will continue to fight this war as a continuation of The Great Patriotic War, which it is.
The United States will continue to fight this war as a continuation of the out-sourcing strategy it erected after Vietnam. As noted by Dr. Doctorow, the out-sourcing continues. Now European troops will be used.
Ask yourself, which strategy will win? We see today that out-sourcing does not work in industry. Do you really think it will work in war?
And ask yourself at the same time, who benefits from outsourcing? Certainly not the people!
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You see, the United States out-sourced WWII to Russia. Deny it if you can.
Out-sourcing industry to China has not worked. And the U.S. can no longer outsource war to Russia.
Curtains.
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Seems to have worked for the Chinese pretty well.
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And also remember that it was supposed to be the other way around. The U.S. wanted to outsource the destruction of Russia to Hitler. Now they are out-sourcing the destruction of Russia to Hitler’s heirs. Do you really and truly think that will work… when it didn’t work the first time?
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Xi will meet with Zelensky (remotely) after he meets with Putin. If I were Washington, particularly in the context of the rapprochement he has achieved between Iran and Saudi Arabia, I would be sh*itting in my pants. Washington is about to get side-lined again… and the threat of WWIII, so-called, will be over.
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We can only hope.
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