Did Russia use ‘chemical weapons’ in Ukraine?:  WION Indian global news

The latest State Department accusations against Russia for supposedly using chemical weapons on the battlefield against Ukrainian forces were the starting point for my interview this morning with India’s premier English language global broadcaster WION. These charges are said to have been the basis for the latest round of sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, with the Russian military units under accusation being the prime targets.  The conversation went on from there to consideration of the likely effectiveness of the latest 61 billion financial and arms package from the United States.

Nothing is perfect in life.  WION has identified me as speaking from Brussels, though in fact I am in St Petersburg and will remain here till 14 May.  I misspoke when identifying the glider bombs being used by the Russians, which weigh in at 0.5, 1.5 and 3 tons.

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCfpfob1dpk

Transcript below by a reader

Shivan Chanana: 0:00
The U.S. Department of State alleged that Russia had used chemical weapons against the Ukrainian army, and this was the reason to impose additional sanctions against Russia. Interestingly, last week Russia leveled similar charges against Ukraine at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, OPCW. Now, there was a conference which was held and now the question arises, who’s using chemical weapons against the other? To discuss matters, we’re joined by Dr Gilbert Doctorow, who is an author, historian, and political commentator joining us from Brussels. Dr Doctorow, always a pleasure speaking with you. Is this a tit-for-tat move, as Russia levels similar charges against Ukraine?

Gilbert Doctorow: 0:41
Entirely possible that is the case. The first victim of war is the truth. And what we have seen over the past couple of years has borne that truth out all the way. The Russians may very well have used chemical weapons, but I would suggest it was in response to what they reported and complained about for the Ukrainian side a week ago. Generally speaking, everything that comes out of Ukraine and a lot that comes out of Washington is attributing to the Russians what the Ukrainians are doing. So I would take this latest accusation by the State Department with great caution.

Shivan Chanana: 1:26
If chemical weapons are indeed being used on the battlefield by either side, where is this war inching towards? And we have been, you know … the idea of a nuclear war, it’s been way too romanticized at the moment. There have been too many threats around it. Are we really now moving towards it? Is this the first step that we’re going to see?

Gilbert Doctorow: 1:48
No, I wouldn’t consider these latest accusations or charges and counter charges as signifying any particular escalation. I think that the incidents that are at question here are of a very small nature and they are testing the water to see what can be done and how far you can go. I don’t think that this is leading us into a new direction. The weapons already being used in this war are of great destructive power — most recently, the Russians’ use over the past few months of so-called dumb bombs, which have been smartened up and turned into glider bombs. These are [0.5-ton, 1.5-ton], even three-ton bombs with devastating impact, that can tear up large parts of a battlefield and kill most anyone within 20, 30, 40 meters range. So these weapons are weapons of great destructive power, have already been used, and the introduction of some chemical weapons here or there does not change the situation greatly.

Shivan Chanana: 2:59
Dr Doctorow, given your experience and your study of the region spanning over decades, I wanted to understand what consequence do American sanctions have, especially on a nation like Russia? We have seen the U.S. impose several rounds of sanctions in the past. Anything happens and they impose further sanctions. Are these sanctions of any consequence?

Gilbert Doctorow: 3:23
The most significant sanctions, which are of consequence, have been the financial sanctions. Removing Russia from the SWIFT system has had considerable impact on Russia’s commercial relations with the world. It hasn’t– for a few months, there were setbacks in the trade. They were overcome, the workarounds were arrived at and Russia more or less is doing quite well in its commercial relations, particularly with the global south.

Otherwise the sanctions have either been counterproductive– in the sense that they have caused much greater harm to the United States and particularly to Western Europe than they have to Russia– or they have had nil effect. The latest sanctions that are discussed now in connection with the supposed use of chemical weapons will have nil effect. To sanction a country’s military units for one or another abuse is an absurd proposition. You are at war with them or you’re not at war with them. And what difference does it make if individuals are named and are unable to visit the United States or own property there? This is just pro forma. It is checking the box.

Shivan Chanana: 4:38
Doctor, the last time we spoke, you had mentioned very categorically that yes, the bill has been signed into law for the aid, the military aid towards Ukraine, but it’s not going to happen immediately. Would you want to put some kind of a timeline to it? By when can American weapons finally make it to the Ukrainian front lines, because Ukraine is desperately waiting for them?

Gilbert Doctorow: 4:59
Well, some weapons will. Other weapons won’t. They won’t for months, if not for years. The United States and its European allies are simply unable to produce in quantity the artillery shells and the air defense systems that Ukraine desperately needs now if it is going to withstand the coming pummeling of a Russian offensive in full force. The Russians have been softening up the lines. They have been taking additional territory. They have been improving their positions, as they say, in a very understated way. And Ukraine, in the coming month or two, is really unable to resist the Russian moves that we see every day. How long it will take for Patriots to arrive? They don’t have Patriots in the warehouse ready to ship out to Ukraine. They don’t have artillery shells in the millions to assist Ukraine.

But the biggest issue has nothing to do with Western supply. It has to do with Ukraine’s own manpower, which is in a shabby state, and they are unable to raise their battlefield numbers. Their various military units are depleted and therefore ineffective. That is nothing that shipment of further tanks or artillery pieces or ATACMS can rectify. So the Ukrainians are in a very difficult position. The United States is, and the British, the Germans are boasting that they’re providing assistance, but it’s of very limited military value in a situation that is dire.

Shivan Chanana: 6:52
So when it comes to the sanctions, at least the current ones will have no significance, at least not on Russia. And as far as the weapons are concerned, it’s going to take a while for it to, for them to reach the Ukrainian front lines. And even if they do, as you mentioned, the manpower still continues to be a problem, as Ukraine is severely outmanned at the moment.

There are hints, or there are allegations of NATO forces and soldiers from other nations making their way to the Ukrainian, to Ukrainian soil, fighting for Ukraine. But, of course, none of that is in the open. So as far as what makes its way to the public eye is Ukrainian soldiers who are outmanned. Ukraine is outmanned at the moment, even if they get the weapons.

We are going to be tracking the Russia-Ukraine developments as they come in, as we have been doing all this while, right here on WION World is One. A big thank you to Dr Gilbert Doctorow, who is an author, historian, political commentator, joining us from Brussels with all your insights

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

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Hat Russland „chemische Waffen“ in der Ukraine eingesetzt: WION Indian global news

Die jüngsten Anschuldigungen des US-Außenministeriums gegen Russland wegen des angeblichen Einsatzes chemischer Waffen auf dem Schlachtfeld gegen ukrainische Streitkräfte waren der Ausgangspunkt für mein Interview heute Morgen mit Indiens führendem englischsprachigen globalen Fernsehsender WION. Diese Vorwürfe sollen die Grundlage für die jüngste Runde der von den Vereinigten Staaten gegen Russland verhängten Sanktionen gewesen sein, wobei die beschuldigten russischen Militäreinheiten die Hauptziele sind. Das Gespräch ging weiter zu Überlegungen über die wahrscheinliche Wirksamkeit des jüngsten 61-Milliarden-Finanz- und Rüstungspakets der Vereinigten Staaten.

Nichts im Leben ist perfekt. WION hat mich als Sprecher aus Brüssel identifiziert, obwohl ich mich in Wirklichkeit in St. Petersburg befinde und dort bis zum 14. Mai bleiben werde. Ich habe mich versprochen, als ich die von den Russen verwendeten Gleitbomben mit einem Gewicht von 0,5, 1,5 und 3 Tonnen bezeichnet habe.

Siehe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCfpfob1dpk

Shades of 1968:  The New York police assault on Columbia University demonstrators

Yesterday’s NYPD storming of Hamilton Hall on the Columbia University campus which had been occupied by student demonstrators protesting Israeli genocide in Gaza has brought the clash between America’s non-academic, pro-Washington narrative university administrators and its more idealistic students to the attention of global media. After taking the building, the police arrested the demonstrators and, before television cameras, paraded them off, wrists bound, to waiting buses for dispatch to jail.

As an alumnus of Columbia who entered graduate school there in the months following similar, shall we say, revolutionary developments in the student body in the spring of 1968, I take special interest in this development. Back then, the hotbed of political action across the nation was on the Berkeley campus in California. Columbia was not in the vanguard, though the campus reeled from internal divisions.

At that time, much of the Columbia faculty sided with the retrograde administration, as I saw in my own department, Russian history. My academic advisor, Leopold Haimson, a leading scholar on the Menshevik movement and closet Marxist himself, was aghast at being in the midst of a real bottom-up revolution and sided with the administrators. It took a long time to heal the wounds to the institution once order was restored.

 As a political analyst today, I also follow these developments at Columbia closely for more serious reasons than nostalgia for the past. They hold the promise of a resurrection of student activism and antiwar sentiment among the young that was snuffed out, very cynically but effectively by Richard Nixon and his immediate followers when they put an end to the draft and introduced an all-volunteer professional army.

That Republicans and other political conservatives with their all-in support for Israel whatever it does would uniformly condemn the students as ‘anti-Semites’ is obvious. For their part, Liberals are split on the issue, though many loathe what Israel has been doing in Gaza and the Left Bank, and are sympathetic to the student demonstrators. Liberals are also more concerned with the suppression of free speech, on campus of all places, that the police crackdown at Hamilton Hall signifies. Many are saying out loud that attempts to instill uniformity of thought on the Israeli question destroy the underlying principles of higher education grounded in diversity of views and civilized public debate.

In this regard, I call for a time out to reflect on the destruction of the social sciences and humanities on American campuses that did not start yesterday but goes back in time at least 15 years. This passes unnoticed by our Liberals because it clashes with their own political correctness that acknowledges no other views than their own on the given subject.  I have in mind the anti-Putin, anti-Russian doctrine that totally captured university policies on free speech when Washington launched its Information War on Russia.

In the 2010-11 academic year, I was a Visiting Scholar at Columbia and attended a goodly number of Russia-themed public events hosted by its Harriman Institute. The overriding impression was that anti-Russian speakers and the audiences, consisting of students, faculty and outside visitors, were all totally aligned, singing from the same hymn books. If you dared to pose a question in the time allotted for “discussion” that showed some variance from this consensus, you were immediately denounced as a ‘stooge of Putin.’ In effect, this institution of higher learning had descended to the level of a kindergarten.

From following developments on campus ever since from the weekly program announcements of the Harriman, it is crystal clear that the situation with respect to freedom of speech and thought on the subject of Russia has only gotten worse. Moreover, in the past two years of the Moscow’s Special Military Operation the whole discipline of Russian studies at Columbia has been pulled up by the roots and been replaced by Ukrainian studies and studies of the supposedly colonized nationalities of the former Russian Empire. The process is being called ‘de-colonization.’

Until and unless I see a sobering up of our universities from their intoxication with Russophobia, I will not believe that freedom of speech on campus has been restored, whatever the outcome of the present confrontations over Israeli genocide.

But who knows? Perhaps someone among the present day rebels will move beyond outrage over 34,000 murdered Palestinians and consider the possibility of hundreds of millions of dead civilians globally including in the good old U.S. of A. should the present clash in Ukraine be allowed to escalate to WWIII.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Die Schatten von 1968:  Der Angriff der New Yorker Polizei auf die Demonstranten der Columbia University

Die gestrige Erstürmung der Hamilton Hall auf dem Campus der Columbia University durch die New Yorker Polizei, die von studentischen Demonstranten besetzt worden war, die gegen den israelischen Völkermord in Gaza protestiert haben, hat die Aufmerksamkeit der weltweiten Medien auf den Zusammenstoß zwischen Amerikas nicht-akademischen, Washington-freundlichen Universitätsverwaltern und ihren idealistischeren Studenten gelenkt. Nachdem die Polizei das Gebäude eingenommen hatte, verhaftete sie die Demonstranten und führte sie vor laufenden Fernsehkameras mit gefesselten Handgelenken zu wartenden Bussen, die sie ins Gefängnis brachten.

Als ehemaliger Columbia-Absolvent, der dort in den Monaten nach ähnlichen, sagen wir, revolutionären Entwicklungen in der Studentenschaft im Frühjahr 1968 sein Studium aufnahm, habe ich ein besonderes Interesse an dieser Entwicklung. Damals war der Campus von Berkeley in Kalifornien die Brutstätte politischer Aktionen im ganzen Land. Columbia gehörte nicht zu den Vorreitern, obwohl der Campus von internen Spaltungen heimgesucht wurde.

Damals stand ein Großteil der Columbia-Fakultät auf der Seite der rückschrittlichen Verwaltung, wie ich in meinem eigenen Fachbereich, der russischen Geschichte, feststellen konnte. Mein akademischer Berater, Leopold Haimson, ein führender Gelehrter der menschewistischen Bewegung und selbst bekennender Marxist, war entsetzt darüber, dass er sich inmitten einer echten Revolution von unten nach oben befand, und stellte sich auf die Seite der Verwaltung. Es dauerte lange, bis die Wunden in der Institution verheilt waren, nachdem die Ordnung wiederhergestellt war.

Als heutiger politischer Analytiker verfolge ich diese Entwicklungen an der Columbia aus ernsthafteren Gründen als der Nostalgie für die Vergangenheit. Sie versprechen eine Wiederbelebung des studentischen Aktivismus und der Antikriegsstimmung unter der Jugend, die von Richard Nixon und seinen unmittelbaren Nachfolgern sehr zynisch, aber effektiv ausgelöscht wurde, als sie die Wehrpflicht abschafften und eine rein freiwillige Berufsarmee einführten.

Es liegt auf der Hand, dass die Republikaner und andere politisch Konservative mit ihrer uneingeschränkten Unterstützung für Israel, was auch immer es tut, die Studenten einheitlich als “Antisemiten” verurteilen würden. Die Liberalen ihrerseits sind in dieser Frage gespalten, obwohl viele verabscheuen, was Israel im Gazastreifen und in der Westbank tut, und mit den demonstrierenden Studenten sympathisieren. Die Liberalen sind auch besorgter über die Unterdrückung der freien Meinungsäußerung, ausgerechnet auf dem Campus, was die Polizeirazzia in der Hamilton Hall bedeutet. Viele sagen laut, dass der Versuch, ein einheitliches Denken in der Israel-Frage durchzusetzen, die grundlegenden Prinzipien der Hochschulbildung, die auf Meinungsvielfalt und zivilisierter öffentlicher Debatte beruhen, zerstört.

In diesem Zusammenhang rufe ich zu einer Auszeit auf, um über die Zerstörung der Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften an amerikanischen Universitäten nachzudenken, die nicht erst gestern begonnen hat, sondern mindestens 15 Jahre zurückreicht. Dies bleibt von unseren Liberalen unbemerkt, weil es mit ihrer eigenen politischen Korrektheit kollidiert, die keine anderen Ansichten als die eigenen zu einem bestimmten Thema anerkennt. Ich denke dabei an die Anti-Putin- und Anti-Russland-Doktrin, die die Politik der Universitäten in Bezug auf die freie Meinungsäußerung völlig vereinnahmt hat, als Washington seinen Informationskrieg gegen Russland begann.

Im akademischen Jahr 2010/11 war ich Gastwissenschaftler an der Columbia University und besuchte eine ganze Reihe öffentlicher Veranstaltungen des Harriman-Instituts zum Thema Russland. Der vorherrschende Eindruck war, dass die antirussischen Redner und das Publikum, bestehend aus Studenten, Lehrkräften und externen Besuchern, völlig gleichgeschaltet waren und aus denselben Gesangbüchern sangen. Wenn man es wagte, in der für die “Diskussion” vorgesehenen Zeit eine Frage zu stellen, die von diesem Konsens abwich, wurde man sofort als “Handlanger Putins” denunziert. In der Tat war diese Hochschule auf das Niveau eines kindergarten (sic!) herabgesunken.

Wenn man die Entwicklungen auf dem Campus seither anhand der wöchentlichen Programmankündigungen des Harriman verfolgt, ist es glasklar, dass sich die Situation in Bezug auf die Rede- und Gedankenfreiheit zum Thema Russland nur verschlechtert hat. Darüber hinaus wurde in den letzten zwei Jahren der Moskauer Sonder-Militäroperation die gesamte Disziplin der Russischstudien an der Columbia bei den Wurzeln ausgerissen und durch Ukrainistik und Studien über die angeblich kolonisierten Nationalitäten des ehemaligen Russischen Reiches ersetzt. Dieser Prozess wird als “Entkolonisierung” bezeichnet.

Bis ich sehe, dass sich unsere Universitäten von ihrem Rausch der Russophobie erholen, werde ich nicht glauben, dass die Meinungsfreiheit auf dem Campus wiederhergestellt ist, unabhängig vom Ausgang der derzeitigen Auseinandersetzungen über den israelischen Völkermord.

Aber wer weiß? Vielleicht wird jemand unter den heutigen Rebellen über die Empörung über 34.000 ermordete Palästinenser hinausgehen und die Möglichkeit von Hunderten von Millionen toten Zivilisten weltweit, einschließlich innerhalb der guten alten U.S. von A, in Betracht ziehen, sollte der gegenwärtige Konflikt in der Ukraine zu einem Dritten Weltkrieg eskalieren.

RT’s Cross Talk: discussion of the $61 billion military and financial aid package for Ukraine now signed into law

In today’s edition of Cross Talk, I was pleased to join host Peter Lavelle and Sputnik International political analyst Dmitry Babich for a discussion of likely consequences of the newly signed law appropriating $61 billion in aid to Kiev.

Put in simplest terms, this aid package will prolong the war, continue the decimation of Ukraine’s male population and the destruction of its economic viability. It may also hasten our descent into WWIII.

RT programs are subject to intense censorship in the USA and Europe. The links below may or may not work depending on your jurisdiction:


https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/CT2904-:c

https://rumble.com/v4s796n-crosstalk-bullhorns-ensuring-defeat.html

https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/596708-us-foreign-aid-bill-ukraine/

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus) followed by full transcript in English

RT’s Cross Talk: Diskussion über das 61 Milliarden Dollar schwere Militär- und Finanzhilfepaket für die Ukraine, das jetzt in Kraft getreten ist

In der heutigen Ausgabe von Cross Talk habe ich mich gefreut, mit Gastgeber Peter Lavelle und dem politischen Analysten von Sputnik International, Dmitry Babich, über die wahrscheinlichen Folgen des neu unterzeichneten Gesetzes zu sprechen, das Kiew 61 Milliarden Dollar an Hilfsgeldern zuweist.

Vereinfacht ausgedrückt wird dieses Hilfspaket den Krieg verlängern, die Dezimierung der männlichen Bevölkerung der Ukraine fortsetzen und die wirtschaftliche Lebensfähigkeit des Landes zerstören. Es könnte auch unseren Abstieg in den Dritten Weltkrieg beschleunigen.

Die RT-Programme unterliegen in den USA und Europa einer strengen Zensur. Die nachstehenden Links können je nach Herrschaftsbereich funktionieren oder nicht:


https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/CT2904-:c

https://rumble.com/v4s796n-crosstalk-bullhorns-ensuring-defeat.html

https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/596708-us-foreign-aid-bill-ukraine/

Transcription below by a reader

Peter Lavelle 00:15
Hello and welcome to Crosstalk Bullhorns. I’m Peter Lavelle. Here we discuss some real news. With the passage of Biden’s huge foreign aid bill, it is important to ask, what is next? What is really the purpose of this aid? To help Ukraine win or only just starve off defeat? For now. To discuss these issues and more, I’m joined by Gilbert Doctorow in St. Petersburg. He’s an independent political analyst and author of memoirs of an expat manager in Moscow during the 1990s. And here in Moscow we have Dmitry Bobich. He is a political analyst at Sputnik International. All right, gentlemen, Crosstalk rules in effect. That means you can jump any time you want, and I always appreciate it.

00:51
All right, let’s start out with Dima here in Moscow. Well, we’ve had a week now to kind of digest the passage of Biden’s huge foreign aid bill, in an election year, of all things. And, of course, we have the bipartisan consensus of foreign wars and intervention. You saw the results after the vote was taken on the House floor with the waving of the flags and everything. For a lot of people in Congress it was a feel-good thing, but at the end of the day, even in mainstream media that is hardly fair or unbiased towards Russia, they’re even asking the same questions that all of us have been asking all along. I mean, fine, you can dedicate money and weapons, but is it going to make any difference? After a week of this here, Dima, what do you think?

Dmitry Babich 01:45
Well, first, some people just don’t understand that a huge part of this 61 billion that is going to be spent on Ukraine, a huge part of it is going to be spent for previous deliveries. I mean, the budget is going to compensate Pentagon for the deliveries that it already made, for the expenses that it already made. About 11 billion are actually going to be spent on NATO troops, American troops next to Ukraine, right?

And the other thing is that even though– I think it was Trump who insisted on that via Mike Johnson– even though formally it is a loan, I like the phrase from Senator Thomas Tuberville, a Republican from Alabama. He said, “Don’t let yourself be fooled. Not a dollar of this is going to be paid back. It’s not a loan.” We know the regime that exists in Ukraine since 2014. Once they get the money, forget it, you know, they never pay back. So basically, I think everyone is worse off. The war will continue longer. More people are going to die, probably in areas far removed from the frontline, because Zelensky will buy himself or just get for free long-range missiles. The American taxpayer will never get his or her money back.

03:16
And, again, Tuberville said, “Don’t let yourself be fooled; none of this is going to be paid. We’re going to print these dollars or we’re going to borrow it from China.” If Americans are concerned about their dependence on China, it’s going to increase.

Peter Lavelle:
Yeah, well, Dima, and I’ll throw it over to Gilbert, I mean, if you read the fine print of the bill, it’s a sweetheart loan. You don’t have to pay it back. It’s in the bill itself, it was marketed in a very different way. But if you look at the black and white, it is an absolute giveaway. Gilbert, I mean, it seems to me, and all of us have been watching this very closely, not since 2022, but since 2014, at the very least; much longer, actually, in many ways. This is just to starve off defeat. They don’t have a plan to win. They just want to avoid losing, I guess because it’s an election year. Gilbert.

Gilbert Doctorow: 04:09
No, I agree completely with this. And it is a substantial consensus among experts. But I wouldn’t necessarily say just opposition people, opposition to the Washington narrative. But even in mainstream, there is a consensus that this is not going to save, give Ukraine the possibility of recovering its territory. That is a lost cause. I think the consensus of experts, even moving into mainstream, is coming close to what Jacques Baud was saying about four months ago, that this war has nothing to do with Ukraine. It has everything to do with the West and Russia.

04:47
And Ukraine is being used and abused by the West callously, viciously actually, to the maximum extent to cause harm to Russia. I think what is more troublesome, more worrisome for us all, is not the 61 billion that’s been appropriated for military and budgetary assistance to Ukraine. It is what is going on just under the radar and not very far below it, because it is being picked up by some astute people. And by that I mean the dispatch to Ukraine of advisers, advisers to assist with the most advanced equipment is now scheduled to be delivered to Ukraine. This takes us back to where we were in the 1960s with the American advisers in Vietnam. And that was a time when there was still an understanding of red lines to prevent a direct military clash between the superpowers. That has gone away. There is no recognition of red lines, as Mr. Macron said in a very prevocative way, but in an accurate way, and the possibility of this escalating further, incrementally, is really there.

06:06
We have more and more NATO advisers coming in. We have more and more targeting of those NATO advisers by the Russian Ministry of Defense. And sooner or later, this becomes explosive.

Peter Lavelle:
Well, Dima, of course, I mean, many will say that this is going up the escalation ladder for the very reason that Gilbert just mentioned, is that you’re going to see more and more NATO troops going into Ukraine. But it belies the fact that no matter what the West does vis-a-vis Ukraine, the Russians know it’s directed against them, and it’s not changing the, moving the needle, as it were, on the battlefield. I mean, there are a number of experts that you and I and Gilbert and our audience follow Is that the Ukrainian lines are becoming weaker and weaker and there could be some kind of breakdown. What does NATO do then?

Dmitry Babich: 07:00
Well, NATO will say that just, you know, “‘The dictator’ cracked up to be stronger than we expected. Democracy is on the wane around the world. Autocrats are on the rise.” We’re going to hear a lot of that. The problem is that the United States and the European Union have become ideological states, ideological entities, and their control over the media is absolute. You know, look, one of the main characteristics of a totalitarian regime is that you mix common morals and politics. So during the last three months, the message that we had from the American media in Ukraine, from the European correspondents, it was “Ukrainians are dying, Russia is advancing, and you, Mike Johnson, is to blame for that. You didn’t give the money. So you are a bad man, you know, you’re personally responsible for something, for everything that happens in Ukraine, everything bad that happens in Ukraine.”

08:02
So there is that mixup of morals and politics, you know. In the same way, in the Soviet Union, if you were against Stalin, if you said something bad about Stalin, you just not, you didn’t just make a mistake. You were a very bad person. You had to be ashamed of yourself. So we see this used here and it’s just astounding how the media in the West changes its tunes. All of these few months before it was, you know, “Ukrainian army is starving, there are no munitions, all this because of Mike Johnson.” In fact, it was not true because the munitions delivered in 2022, in 2023, you know, most of this money is going to be just compensating, you know, Pentagon and the American military-industrial complex for that.

08:51
But they wanted to create that atmosphere. And suddenly after the money was given, actually physically, it’s not yet there and the munitions are not there, but suddenly the tone changed, you know. Suddenly we don’t have all of these sentimental articles about soldiers and suffering officers and weeping Zelensky. And the story that was just astounding for me was how Zelensky said, “How come we’re not Israel? I’m in shock, you know. When Israel was attacked by Iranian drones, everyone rushed to the help of Israel. Why are we not Israel?” And the answer is very simple.

Peter Lavelle: 09:32
But Dima, for the very reasons that Gilbert just said, It’s not about Ukraine. That’s what’s really tragic about it. You know, you know, Gilbert, this, you know, as we are on this program, counterintuitive here, the 61 billion– and it doesn’t really matter the amount. you know, people make the amount the center of the story. It doesn’t really matter– because all this does is that it speeds up the demise of what we know of Ukraine. This is going to speed it up, not slow it down, for the very reason that there’s no strategic plan that this money is going to forward. And that’s the tragedy of it all. We’re going to see massive casualties. And this equipment, as Dima has pointed out, is that a lot of it probably hasn’t even been made yet. So, I mean, this is really kind of unicorn stuff. Gilbert.

Gilbert Doctorow: 10:31
Well, on both sides, both on the Russian side and on the American side and allied side, there is a feeling that the coming months will be decisive. This act, if Congress, which Biden successfully, remarkably got through over the opposition of Trump, that is–

Peter Lavelle:
Well, that’s that’s a little unclear, Gilbert. I mean, he, you know, Mike Johnson went to Mar-a-Lago, they did the photo op. I mean, I think Trump totally, totally fumbled this one. And for a public relations point of view. Go ahead.

Gilbert Doctorow: 11:06
Yeah. Well, I think that the coming months are decisive for Biden in his re-election campaign, and this is a holding action. Whether it will hold or not remains to be seen. It is understood the same way by the Russians, that they have a period before them of several months to conclusively knock out Ukraine before this thing really goes off in a wild direction. So, I think we have to sit back, watch this closely, and see where it’s going. It could go into World War III very easily. It could also end in a capitulation by Ukraine very easily, for all the reasons that have been discussed.

They’re out of men, it’s not just out of munitions. And to speak about a Russian advantage of 5 to 1 or 7 to 1 in artillery shells, they’re speaking about that as if it were a new development coming from the failure of the allies to deliver munitions to Ukraine. That’s rubbish. It’s been 7 to 10 to 1 since February of 2022. So for the reading public who has been asleep for the last two years, this is news. For the rest of us, it’s not news at all. And you have to look for what spells the difference. The difference is they’re out of men, not out of munitions. And the men that they’re throwing in are unprepared.

12:36
Everything, virtually everything that the Ukrainians say about the Russian army is simply a reversal of facts. They’re describing themselves. And they’re putting up untrained men and the rest, and mobilization, all these lies are a description of their own situation.

Peter Lavelle:
All right. Gilbert, I have to jump in here. We’re going to go to a short break, gentlemen, and after that short break, we’ll continue our discussion on some real news. Stay with RT.

13:11
Welcome back to Crosstalk Bullhorns. I’m Peter Lavelle. To remind you, we’re discussing some real news. Dima, on the theme, going back about the appropriation of the $61 billion, which of course, depending on how you count it, I mean, some people pointed out 8 billion of it will be in cash, which I guess we all know what will happen to that very quickly, okay? Corruption in Ukraine has only gotten worse, it’s not gotten better, unfortunately. For the people of Ukraine, for the people that actually want their pension and all that, I don’t see why the United States taxpayer should pay another country’s pensions, maybe a topic of another program.

But one could be much more cynical. This is one big wet kiss goodbye. They’re washing their hands of it, because that’s going to need– that 61 billion will go up in smoke, quite literally, depending on how you want to interpret it. It’s not going to make a difference on the battlefield, as we’ve already discussed on this program. So this was just kind of a feel-good vote, remarkably– and maybe one of you or both of you want to address this– why give Biden a win in an election year like this? I’m simply mystified by it. Dima?

Dmitry Babich: 14:24
Well, let’s look at the figures. 46 billion of that amount, 61, is going to be spent on arms. The remaining, I guess, 15 billion is going to be spent on Ukraine. And as you rightly said, part of it will be in cash, and it is supposed to compensate the pensioners. Well, it’s very easy for the Ukrainian government to steal that money. And during the debate in the Senate, a few senators like J.D. Vance and others, they raised it. They said, “Look, you said it was one of the most corrupt countries in the world. How come we’re sending them our money?” you know. As for the battleground, the goals, the aims that Zelensky and his masters are setting themselves are just not realistic, you know.

15:12
To take back Crimea, there are 2.7 million people living in Crimea, you know? It has been a part of Russian Empire since 1783. The huge majority of the people there do not want, under any circumstances, to go back to Ukraine, you know. When American media was a little bit more honest in the 90s, look at the articles by Celestine Bohlen in the New York Times, by Steve Erlanger. They all wrote that Russians make up a huge majority in Crimea; they’re not happy with the Ukrainian government. Then they were not happy. Now they’re even more unhappy, because they get bombarded every day.

15:52
So when you have unrealistic goals, you can’t win, you know. And what’s going on smacks of a “meat for arms” deal, you know. The Congress, you know, the Congress passed this bill when? After Zelensky announced a new mobilization, 250,000 men will have to go to the army, that means to the front. And, you know, this terrible thing, the Ukrainian government is now requiring Ukrainians living abroad to come to the consular offices and sign up, you know, clear out their situation, their relationship with the army. Otherwise, they will not renew their passports. And all these millions of men will become illegals in Poland, in Germany.

Peter Lavelle: 16:39
Maybe Gilbert knows this, but that’s in contravention to EU laws, okay? I mean, these people are conscientiously opposing this conflict, but that’s neither here nor there. Gilbert, what bothers me and is what we’ve seen over the last few months, particularly if we want to consider the implications of the attack on the concert hall in St. Petersburg, it seems the U.S., because they’re the ones that are calling the shots here, they want to rely more and more on terrorism, which of course is something that the Russians will react to very, very strongly, obviously. So the asymmetricalness of it is becoming more and more obvious. Are you worried about that escalating?

Gilbert Doctorow: 17:24
I think it’s difficult to contain entirely state-sponsored terrorism. So the possibility of some sort of tragedy ahead cannot be excluded entirely. Nonetheless, the result of this appropriation and the continuation of the work, and particularly the result of Ukrainian anticipated use of the longer-range missiles to attack civilian targets in Russia, will be a further aggravation and a further intensification of what we have seen for the last two months, when Russia finally has been staging attacks on the generating plants, not on substations, to destroy the infrastructure of electricity in Ukraine and to target particularly the areas from which the most vicious attacks on civilians in the Belgorod region of Russia have been staged, and that is to take over, essentially, Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv.

18:42
And that, the exodus from Kharkiv, that has been shown on television, is going to continue and is going to become still greater. So I can see as one of the unexpected results of what is going on is a further extension of Russkiy Mir in Western Europe. I live in Brussels and I can tell you right now sometimes I wonder if I’m in Moscow. Because all I hear around me is Russian speech, and this is from the so-called Ukrainians who are now among us. That is a fact of life that I see and I don’t believe that there will be any return to Ukraine of those whom I now see around me in Brussels, but I’m sure you also see in Paris and Berlin and other cities.

Peter Lavelle: 19:29
Well, Gilbert, I mean, if you’re a young Ukrainian woman and you have a child and that child is already speaking or learning German or learning Polish or, you know, French, the likelihood of returning home to a devastated country is close to zero. Dima, very shortly, President Volodymyr Zelensky will no longer be the legal president of Ukraine. I thought it was quite interesting listening to the floor speeches about democracy versus authoritarianism, but Zelensky will be an unelected, I don’t know, whatever term you want– viceroy, dictator, strongman– there will be no legal legitimacy behind him maintaining power.

Dmitry Babich: 20:18
Well, I think that brings us back to this desperate question from Zelensky. “Why am I not Israel, why is Ukraine not a big Israel?” Because you are an unelected military dictator, and you have a dreadful security service, you know. Tucker Carlson just visited Ukraine, and when he came back to the United States, he said he heard the word SBU around himself all the time. SBU is the Ukrainian security s ervice, which people really fear. I mean, they fear it a lot more than Soviet KGB, you know, and certainly more than FSB here. So, the fact that he is not elected is just the smallest of his sins. In reality, of course, people did not support his actions, which led to this tragedy in the first place. It could be avoided 100 times before it started on February 24th, 2022.

Peter Lavelle: 21:21
You know, Gilbert, looking at some of the Western media coverage, most of it’s quite laughable and obviously tragic, because so many young men, particularly Ukrainian men, continue to die. But there’s the new mantra, I mean it’s being introduced, is that “Putin wants results by Victory Day”, by May 9th, you know. And I just kind of just roll my eyes. I mean, if there’s been any– if this military campaign, the “Special Military Operation”, as it was initially called, has no timelines at all. Haven’t they learned that by now. that– and maybe the tail end of that is that the big Russian offensive that’s coming, I don’t see that either. I think that they see what they’re doing is working, maybe not as fast as any of us would like, but it is working. That’s why they needed the $61 billion. Gilbert.

Gilbert Doctorow: 22:17
All of our whiz kids who are in Washington, and in Berlin, and in London, have the same failure to think outside the box. They project onto Russia what their own military campaign would look like, and then they draw conclusions that Russia fails here and there, because it hasn’t done what they expect.

Peter Lavelle:
Like the shock and awe, shock and awe. Why isn’t Russia using shock and awe?

Gilbert Doctorow:
So that’s where we began in February 2022, and that’s where we are today. They simply refuse to learn that there are other ways to wage a war, and there are other concepts of war-making than their own. And the Russian concept goes back, it wasn’t invented here, it goes back to Clausewitz, where military action is a projection, it’s a continuation and a handmaiden of diplomacy. So this is not appreciated. Diplomacy has gone by the boards in the United States and Western Europe, and they just cannot see. It’s really an intellectual, conceptual failure, to understand, that people can do things differently and have a different set of objectives. And that’s where we are today.

Peter Lavelle: 23:27
You know, Dima, eventually all conflicts come to an end, and in all conflicts there’s an element of diplomacy at the very end. What initiative has the West given Russia to engage in diplomacy, since the West has rejected it completely?

Dmitry Babich:
Well, I would look at it in a wider frame. What conflict have the United States and the EU ended since the EU in its present form sprang up in 1992? Not a single one. They tried in Cuba. It didn’t work. All the other wars were made by them, you know. They widened smaller conflict into big ones, like the protests in Syria, thanks to them, grew into a civil war. And we have many examples. But I would like to quote Senator Thomas Tuberville here. Speaking against this bill at the Senate, he said, “We need to work with Ukraine and Russia to end all this.” And then he added, “But that is called diplomacy. That’s not going to come from us.”

24:34
Unfortunately, I’m afraid he was right. Because working with Ukraine and Russia’s policy. Tell me, when it was the last time when the United States and the EU would work with both sides of the book. They always just supported one side. In Syria, in Libya, everywhere.

Peter Lavelle: 24:56
Well, you know, Gilbert, we’re rapidly running out of time, but Secretary Blinken went to China and scolded them for backing Russia in whatever form that he claims; there’s not a lot of evidence. But what I find really interesting when you see the Secretary saying, lecturing another country about helping another country in a conflict, well, what is the West doing with Ukraine? I mean, they don’t see the symmetry. These people have no sense of self– they can’t see how the other side would see the same problem, Gilbert.

Gilbert Doctorow:
Well, the other side simply cannot be right. There’s one way to do it, and that’s our way.

Peter Lavelle:
That’s right.

Gilbert Doctorow:
We have allies, but you don’t have any allies. You cannot have allies, by definition. You’re an axis of evil or whatever. And so there is this mental failure to put things together.

Peter Lavelle: 25:51
Yeah, well, I mean, the great Stephen Cohen, probably one of the greatest Russianists there ever was, he said during the Cold War “We needed to be in the other guy’s shoes to be able to see what’s going on.” That there’s an inability of doing that. And I think Dima is ultimately right. It’s very ideological. We have in all around the world, it’s the West that is ideological. Most the world wants practical results, and that usually happens in history when you’re practical.

All right gentlemen, that’s all the time we have. I want to thank my guests in St. Petersburg and here in Moscow. And of course I want to thank our viewers for watching us here on RT.

26:29
See you next time; and remember, Crosstalk rules.

Travel notes, St Petersburg, April-May 2024: first installment

My mention in my last essay of using the Estonian route to St Petersburg now that the Finnish border crossings are temporarily or, more likely, permanently closed, elicited several expressions of interest from readers, some of whom also may be looking for new ways to access Russia from Europe.

In past travel notes, I devoted some attention to the peculiarities of the political situation in Estonia where the Prime Minister and her government are among the most vicious Russophobes on the Continent and biggest cheerleaders for NATO expansion, to the outskirts of Moscow if they had their way.  At the same time, their capital, Tallinn, has a substantial Russian-speaking population. I have in mind permanent residents, not tourists passing through. You see and hear them not only in the pedestrian zones of historic Tallinn but also in the shopping malls at the city outskirts.  When we took the Tallink ferry from Helsinki to Tallinn a week ago many if not most of the passengers, particularly the younger ones, were Russian speakers who seemed very much at home.

Considering the anti-Russian policies and propaganda of the government, you may wonder why Russians come and why Russian speakers stay in Estonia.

Allow me to venture a guess based on what I saw as a bus traveler going from Tallinn to St  Petersburg when I looked up from the movie screen in front of my seat and looked out the window. There is no denying that the farmsteads and little settlements on the Estonian territory along this west-east route are in better condition and more prosperous than the little wooden houses, some dilapidated, that line the road on first 100 km inside the Russian territory.  As you move further east in Russia, the houses show prosperity, but they are already the country residences of Petersburgers, not the indigenous population.  And, of course, when you approach Petersburg itself, the dynamism of the city is evident in world class infrastructure including some remarkable bridges and arterial highways.

My point is that Russian speakers in Estonia may well appreciate that they are living in a country with higher living standards for the lower strata of society than in neighboring Russia.

In this essay, I intend to add some realism as regards foreigners’ dealings with the authorities, beginning with the first obligation of anyone arriving here for more than eight business days: registration with the communal offices.

This is something that Western experts who have official Russian hosts have not faced, since the hosts take care of it all, very discreetly. The same is true for tourists on short visits: the registration is performed by the front desk staff of the hotels they stay in. But for all others, and that includes myself traveling on a visit to relatives, one is obliged to visit the nearest government office performing registration of foreigners and fill out 4-page registration forms that are very demanding. Filling out the papers by hand can be maddening, because any error you make sends you back to point zero, told to start afresh.  And filling the form out on your computer using a downloaded form comes up against the Russian bureaucrats’ making little changes here or there in the form at least once a year without warning, which may well invalidate the now outdated form you are using.

In this essay I may disappoint readers who would like to believe that Moscow is the New Rome and that Russia is a very desirable place to live compared to the West which seems to have entered into moral degeneracy and terminal decline.

This turn of mind is now rather fashionable ever since Tucker Carlson in several video reports following his interview with Vladimir Putin, took his audience on a walking tour of Russian supermarkets and debunked all notions that Russians are suffering from the effects of Western sanctions. What he showed was a cornucopia, he demonstrated that Russians are ‘spoiled for choice’ in their diet, as the Brits would say.

Meanwhile, Carlson’s filmed visit to the Moscow subway showed that Russian public services are world leaders and not decrepit, as the liars among our government leaders and captive press in the West would have us believe.

However, Carlson had neither the time, nor the background knowledge to pick up nuances that go beyond the presence of Snickers in food stores or the quality and price of fruit and vegetables on sale in Moscow. I intend to present a more balanced view of how Russia and Russians are faring now in this third year of the Ukraine war.

As it turns out, precisely the food supply and pricing is the most positive feature of everyday life. It has not only held steady but is visibly improving in ways that both average workaday Russians and the wives of better-paid corporate managers can see and feel.  The government claims that, overall, 2023 was a year that saw real wages rise 5% across the country. Judging by what the supermarkets are stocking, there is every reason to believe that consumer spending is ticking up, not just on essentials but on extravagances that brighten daily lives.

As recently as a year ago, when I sought to prepare a festive meal to treat visiting friends, I had to travel to the Petersburg central district from my outlying borough of Pushkin, 15 km away. Today, there is absolutely no need to go further than several hundred meters from my apartment building on foot to pick up delicacies that exceed even the high expectations of your typical Russian guest.

New specialty stores have opened in my neighborhood, which is populated not only by corporate managers but also by folks of modest means, including a large contingent of military families.  Pushkin is home to a number to Ministry of Defense institutes, always has been going back to tsarist times. It also is a training center for military personnel sent here by ‘friendly countries.’ And so I am not surprised to see several blacks in their home country uniforms doing shopping in my Economy supermarket.

Regarding the new retailers, I think in particular of “Caviar and Fish,” whose product offering I will mention in a minute. Then there is the local branch of a Belarus food products chain that offers very good hard cheeses and dairy products. And further afield, 2 km away in the ‘downtown’ of Pushkin, a branch of the Bouchet bakeries has opened, offering for sale very authentic jumbo croissants, fruit pies and cream-filled cakes of every variety.

Changes even have come to the long-existing Economy class supermarket across the road from my apartment, Verny, which now offers some high value yet affordably priced items that Russian consumers adore. The most exceptional of these is premium, tender smoked white fish from Lake Ladoga, vacuum packed in 200g portions. This maslyanaya ryba (literally ‘butter fish’) is a favorite of Petersburgers. For years, our friends traveled across the border to Finland to buy this and similar smoked fish delicacies. Let the Finns weep over their lost trade while they build their border wall now.

The ‘ Caviar and Fish’ shop opened at some time in the past 7 months when I was unable to visit Petersburg. It is also part of a retail chain in Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast.  The product range is limited and focused on what you simply cannot find elsewhere, not here and certainly not in Belgium: fresh, unpasteurized red salmon (gorbusha or keta) caviar in plastic containers of 125 grams flown in from Kamchatka in the Russian Far East and priced from 7.50 to 9.50 per pack. Then there is an assortment of black caviar offerings from various members of the sturgeon family, ranging from the enormous Beluga native to the Caspian down to the trout-sized sterlet that used to abound in West European and  British rivers once upon  a time and was the fish of royalty. The black caviar comes in glass containers of as little as 50 grams and is of two very different types:  fish-farmed or wild.  The wild version is 40% more expensive than the farmed fish caviar, but the difference between the two is day and night.

 Except for plutocrats in the West, few of us venture to explore the difference.  In Russia, even folks who watch their budgets will do the taste test to celebrate some memorable anniversary with the right kind of caviar.

In Belgium, in Israel, in France, in Italy, in Russia and surely in many other countries, during the winter holiday season shops and restaurants feature the locally raised sturgeon caviar for a touch of extravagance. Given the tiny amount in sampler glass containers, you do not feel the hefty price per kg and may splurge on what is, from my experience, close to tasteless. By contrast, real wild Beluga is sensual and rich in taste.

This new wild sturgeon caviar in “Caviar and Fish” will cost you between 35 and 50 euros for 50 grams, but you and the person you choose to treat will have no regrets. This takes you back in time to the heyday of Soviet Russia, when many things in public life may have been fairly awful but when the luxury dining pleasures available to select offspring of the proletariat and their foreign guests were extraordinary.

Of course, there are also down to earth gastronomic pleasures that everyone here can and does indulge, none more so than the seasonal little fish called koryushka that is caught on its way from Lake Ladoga to the Gulf of Finland to spawn in the period following the break-up of ice on the lake and river.  Now is the time, and a plate full of freshly fried koryushka is a must for visitors to the city in the coming several weeks. At the market, these fish sell for about 7 euros per kg in the best size category.

                                                                         *****

Setting a lavish table for guests is a tradition deeply embedded in the culture here. But the other side of the coin is lavish gifts from guests to host.

In anticipation of reader comments that I am describing the way of life of the wealthy, I point out that our guests are from the intelligentsia stratum of society that never was nor is today well paid or well pensioned. One of our guests is a semi-retired journalist, editor of a publication of the Union of Journalists and part-time professor in a Moscow School of Continuing Education. Another guest is a retired engineer-designer of modules for civilian-purposed rockets, whose pension is above average only because he is a blokadnik, meaning a survivor of the Great Siege of Leningrad in WWII.

The lavish gifts to one’s host may take the form of the bottle of 15 year old fine Georgian brandy (konyak) that our Moscow friend brought us a couple of days ago.  But it always takes the form of a bouquet of flowers for the lady of the house. And to ensure that no visitor comes empty handed even in our outlying borough, in our residential neighborhood there is a 24-hour florist just a 5 minute walk away from our house.  Indeed, our guests brought roses to our home banquet.

Sanctions or no sanctions, the Dutch flower trade continues to function in Russia very well.  Amsterdam is the source for most everything you see in shops. Since the price for flowers was always very high here, the additional costs of getting payments to the supplier while circumventing the SWIFT blockade are passed along to consumers without problems.  I was delighted to pick up some very fresh tulips the other day, paying 10 euros for 8 flowers, which is a premium of just 20% above what I pay for the same in Brussels.

Prices above Western levels almost never apply to foodstuffs, which, as Tucker Carlson correctly pointed out, are generally several times (not percent, but times) below supermarket prices in Western Europe on an apples for apples basis.

However, let us not pretend that there are no negative sides to the sanctions for the Russian consumer. This comes into view when you redirect your attention to computers, smart phones, home electronics, white goods and similar. Suffice it to say here that most well known global (Western) brands have been sold off since the Special Military Operation began and have not been replaced.  What you see instead, on the computer Notebook or Laptop shelves are what we would call ‘no-names’ or Brand X coming from China’s producers for their domestic market.  And if you find an Asus or Acer, then, as I heard from the salesman in our local branch of a nationwide electronics chain, they cannot sell you Microsoft Office software. Why not?  Probably this is due to orders from the manufacturer.  This does not mean that you will not have Office on your computer, but you will be buying a pirated version and Microsoft may cause you many headaches when they detect it, as they surely will. I know from personal experience.

I say this as a ‘down payment’ on my next installment of travel notes.

                                                                               *****

Before closing, I wish to share with you our experience of what makes Russia, and in particular St Petersburg, the unique cultural center in the world that it is, and the decisive reason why I keep coming back year after year.

As I said above, many of our long time friends in the city are card carrying members of the Russian intelligentsia. That makes them interesting personalities by definition. Politically it makes them nearly all “Westernizers” or “Liberals” by definition.  But in this essay, I put politics aside.

Our Tamara arranged for the six of us to visit a “concert” given by a well known performer and teacher of traditional Russian romances in a most extraordinary venue: the musical scores and instruments shop called Severnaya Lira (Northern Lyre) on Nevsky 26, just adjacent to the landmark pre-Revolutionary Singer Building dating from the start of the 20th century that has for decades served as Petersburg’s number one bookseller.

The Northern Lyre has been operating at this address from before I moved to Petersburg in 1994 to work and live. This is the store where we bought a slightly tired but still functional Krasny Oktyabr upright piano that we still keep in our apartment. It is where I bought all my scores for learning to play the cello straight through to the German edition of Bach’s Suites for Unaccompanied Cello.

The store used to be shabby.  It remains shabby. But it is run by a team of young music enthusiasts who apparently stage there the kind of mini-concerts that we saw last night. They only have seats for an audience of ten and the several others who walked in during the concert were standees. There were no suits and ties, no cocktail dresses in this audience of middle aged folks who obviously have some connection or other to the store or to the soloist. There was one kid, a girl about aged 10 with her mother.  In numbers, this concert was perfectly in line with the early 20th century salons where many of the songs were created and first performed. Of course, those salons were necessarily the property of the well-to-do.

Our soloist has a perfectly pitched voice. Not strong but very precise and agreeable to the ears. She was accompanied by a highly regarded and musically very accomplished pianist who is holder of a Russian Federation award. They presented romances drawn mostly from the repertoire of a celebrated Leningrad stage performer who died many, many years ago but is regarded as a very important popularizer of the genre and inspiration for composers of her age.

The store may have the subtitle Noty (Scores), but neither soloist nor accompanist had any scores. They could go on for hours relying solely on memory.  That musical professionalism was always the hallmark of the Mariinsky Theater singers and other Petersburg orchestra members whom we got to know back in the 1990s.

The ”concert” was free of charge. Looking past her through the storefront windows we saw the stream of pedestrians on Nevsky Prospekt who were oblivious to this cultural event. Still further, across the boulevard stands the Kazansky Cathedral, a symbol of this city.

I cannot imagine a concert like this in any other city I know of and it makes Petersburg especially precious.

After the concert we walked our friends a few hundred meters up Nevsky Prospekt through the throngs of pedestrians who, on a pleasant, dry Saturday evening like yesterday come out from the entire city to  this boulevard to see and be seen. So it was in the 1840s, so it is today.

We went to one of our favorite haunts in Petersburg for drinks, the ground floor bar of the Grand Hotel Europe (Gostinitsa Evropeiskaya).  This was the favorite hotel of Petr Ilyich Tchaikovsky, the place where he took a room immediately upon arrival from abroad. It is located just across from the Philharmonic hall (originally the club of Petersburg nobility) and from the so-called Square of the Arts on which the buildings of the Russian Museum and the Maly Opera Theater (originally the Italian Opera) are situated. The ensemble of these streets dates from the 1820s. 

There are many 4 and 5 star hotels in Petersburg today, but there is only one Grand Hotel d’Europe. When we left the hotel to catch the taxi we ordered by phone, former Minister of Culture Mikhail Shvydkoi (2000-2004) arrived by taxi with his wife. Obviously for him as well, this hotel has warm memories.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Reisenotizen, St. Petersburg, April-Mai 2024: erste Tranche

Meine Erwähnung in meinem letzten Aufsatz, die estnische Route nach St. Petersburg zu nutzen, nachdem die finnischen Grenzübergänge vorübergehend oder, was wahrscheinlicher ist, dauerhaft geschlossen sind, löste mehrere Interessensbekundungen von Lesern aus, von denen einige vielleicht auch nach neuen Wegen suchen, um von Europa aus nach Russland zu gelangen.

In früheren Reiseberichten habe ich mich mit den Besonderheiten der politischen Situation in Estland befasst, wo die Ministerpräsidentin und ihre Regierung zu den größten Russenfeinden des Kontinents gehören und die NATO-Erweiterung bis an den Stadtrand von Moskau vorantreiben würden, wenn es nach ihnen ginge. Gleichzeitig gibt es in Tallinn, der Hauptstadt des Landes, eine große russischsprachige Bevölkerung. Ich denke dabei an die ständigen Einwohner, nicht an Touristen auf der Durchreise. Man sieht und hört sie nicht nur in den Fußgängerzonen des historischen Tallinn, sondern auch in den Einkaufszentren am Stadtrand. Als wir vor einer Woche mit der Tallink-Fähre von Helsinki nach Tallinn fuhren, waren viele, wenn nicht sogar die meisten Passagiere, insbesondere die jüngeren, russischsprachig und schienen sich sehr wohl zu fühlen.

In Anbetracht der antirussischen Politik und Propaganda der Regierung fragen Sie sich vielleicht, warum Russen nach Estland kommen und warum russischsprachige Menschen in Estland bleiben.

Erlauben Sie mir, eine Vermutung zu wagen, die sich auf das stützt, was ich als Busreisender auf der Fahrt von Tallinn nach St. Petersburg gesehen habe, als ich von der Kinoleinwand vor meinem Sitz aufgeblickt und aus dem Fenster geschaut habe. Es lässt sich nicht leugnen, dass die Bauernhöfe und kleinen Siedlungen auf estnischem Gebiet entlang dieser West-Ost-Route in besserem Zustand und wohlhabender sind als die kleinen, teilweise verfallenen Holzhäuser, die die Straße auf den ersten 100 km auf russischem Gebiet säumen. Je weiter man nach Osten in Russland vordringt, desto wohlhabender werden die Häuser, aber das sind bereits die Landhäuser der Petersburger, nicht der örtlichen Bevölkerung. Und wenn man sich Petersburg selbst nähert, zeigt sich die Dynamik der Stadt in einer Infrastruktur von Weltklasse, einschließlich einiger bemerkenswerter Brücken und Fernstraßen.

Ich will damit sagen, dass Russischsprachige in Estland sehr wohl zu schätzen wissen, dass sie in einem Land leben, in dem der Lebensstandard für die unteren Schichten der Gesellschaft höher ist als im benachbarten Russland.

In diesem Aufsatz möchte ich etwas Realismus in Bezug auf den Umgang von Ausländern mit den Behörden einbringen, beginnend mit der ersten Verpflichtung für jeden, der hier länger als acht Arbeitstage bleibt: die Anmeldung bei den Gemeindeämtern.

Westliche Experten, die offizielle russische Gastgeber haben, sind damit nicht konfrontiert, da die Gastgeber alles diskret erledigen. Das Gleiche gilt für Touristen auf Kurzbesuchen: Die Registrierung erfolgt durch das Personal an der Rezeption der Hotels, in denen sie übernachten. Für alle anderen, also auch für mich, der ich zu Verwandten reise, muss man das nächstgelegene Ausländeramt aufsuchen und ein vierseitiges Formular ausfüllen, das sehr anspruchsvoll ist. Das Ausfüllen der Papiere von Hand kann sehr mühsam sein, denn bei jedem Fehler muss man wieder bei Null anfangen und wird aufgefordert, von vorne zu beginnen. Und wenn man das Formular am Computer mit Hilfe eines heruntergeladenen Formulars ausfüllt, stößt man darauf, dass die russischen Bürokraten mindestens einmal im Jahr ohne Vorwarnung kleine Änderungen an dem Formular vornehmen, die dazu führen können, dass das von Ihnen verwendete, inzwischen veraltete Formular ungültig wird.

Vielleicht enttäusche ich mit diesem Essay Leser, die gerne glauben würden, dass Moskau das neue Rom ist und dass Russland im Vergleich zum Westen, der moralisch degeneriert und im Niedergang begriffen zu sein scheint, ein sehr lebenswerter Ort ist.

Diese Denkweise ist in Mode gekommen, seit Tucker Carlson in mehreren Videobeiträgen im Anschluss an sein Interview mit Wladimir Putin sein Publikum auf einen Rundgang durch russische Supermärkte mitgenommen und alle Behauptungen widerlegt hat, die Russen würden unter den Auswirkungen der westlichen Sanktionen leiden. Was er zeigte, war ein Füllhorn, er demonstrierte, dass die Russen bei ihrer Ernährung die “Qual der Wahl” haben, wie die Briten sagen würden.

Carlsons gefilmter Besuch in der Moskauer U-Bahn zeigte unterdessen, dass die russischen öffentlichen Dienste weltweit führend sind und nicht, wie uns die Lügner unter unseren Regierungsvertretern und die gefangene Presse im Westen glauben machen wollen, marode.

Carlson hatte jedoch weder die Zeit noch das Hintergrundwissen, um Nuancen zu erkennen, die über das Vorhandensein von Snickers in Lebensmittelgeschäften oder die Qualität und den Preis von Obst und Gemüse, das in Moskau verkauft wird, hinausgehen. Ich beabsichtige, einen ausgewogeneren Blick darauf zu werfen, wie es Russland und den Russen in diesem dritten Jahr des Ukraine-Krieges geht.

Wie sich herausstellt, sind gerade die Lebensmittelversorgung und die Preisgestaltung das positivste Merkmal des täglichen Lebens. Sie ist nicht nur stabil geblieben, sondern verbessert sich zusehends in einer Weise, die sowohl der durchschnittliche russische Arbeiter als auch die Ehefrauen besser bezahlter Unternehmensmanager sehen und spüren können. Die Regierung behauptet, dass die Reallöhne im Jahr 2023 landesweit um 5 % gestiegen sind. Nach den Angeboten in den Supermärkten zu urteilen, gibt es allen Grund zu der Annahme, dass die Verbraucherausgaben steigen, und zwar nicht nur für das Nötigste, sondern auch für Extravaganzen, die das tägliche Leben verschönern.

Noch vor einem Jahr musste ich, wenn ich ein festliches Essen für Freunde zubereiten wollte, von meinem 15 km entfernten Außenbezirk Puschkin in das Petersburger Zentrum fahren. Heute muss ich mich nicht mehr weiter als einige hundert Meter von meinem Wohnhaus entfernen, um Köstlichkeiten zu besorgen, die selbst die hohen Erwartungen des typischen russischen Gastes übertreffen.

In meinem Viertel, das nicht nur von Unternehmensmanagern, sondern auch von Leuten mit bescheidenen Mitteln, darunter viele Militärfamilien, bevölkert wird, haben neue Fachgeschäfte eröffnet. Puschkin beherbergt eine Reihe von Instituten des Verteidigungsministeriums, die bis in die Zarenzeit zurückreichen. Es ist auch ein Ausbildungszentrum für Militärpersonal, das von “befreundeten Ländern” hierher geschickt wird. Und so überrascht es mich nicht, dass ich in meinem Economy-Supermarkt mehrere Schwarze in Uniformen ihres Heimatlandes einkaufen sehe.

Bei den neuen Einzelhändlern denke ich vor allem an “Kaviar und Fisch”, dessen Produktangebot ich gleich erwähnen werde. Dann gibt es noch die örtliche Filiale einer weißrussischen Lebensmittelkette, die sehr guten Hartkäse und Molkereiprodukte anbietet. Und weiter weg, 2 km entfernt im “Stadtzentrum” von Puschkin, hat eine Filiale der Bäckerei Bouchet eröffnet, die sehr authentische Jumbo-Croissants, Obstkuchen und mit Sahne gefüllte Torten aller Art zum Verkauf anbietet.

Sogar in dem seit langem bestehenden Economy-Class-Supermarkt gegenüber meiner Wohnung, Verny, hat sich etwas getan: Er bietet jetzt einige hochwertige, aber dennoch erschwingliche Artikel an, die bei den russischen Verbrauchern sehr beliebt sind. Das außergewöhnlichste Produkt ist der hochwertige, zart geräucherte Weißfisch aus dem Ladogasee, vakuumverpackt in 200-g-Portionen. Dieser maslyanaya ryba (wörtlich “Butterfisch”) ist bei den Petersburgern sehr beliebt. Jahrelang sind unsere Freunde über die Grenze nach Finnland gereist, um diese und ähnliche geräucherte Fischdelikatessen zu kaufen. Sollen die Finnen doch über ihren verlorenen Handel weinen, während sie jetzt ihre Grenzmauer bauen.

Das Geschäft “Kaviar und Fisch” wurde irgendwann in den letzten 7 Monaten eröffnet, als ich nicht in der Lage war, Petersburg zu besuchen. Es ist auch Teil einer Einzelhandelskette in Petersburg und dem Gebiet Leningrad. Die Produktpalette ist begrenzt und konzentriert sich auf das, was man nirgendwo anders findet, nicht hier und schon gar nicht in Belgien: frischer, unpasteurisierter Rotlachs- (Gorbuscha- oder Keta-) Kaviar in Plastikbehältern von 125 Gramm, die aus Kamtschatka im russischen Fernen Osten eingeflogen werden und zwischen 7,50 und 9,50 pro Packung kosten. Dann gibt es eine Auswahl an schwarzem Kaviar von verschiedenen Mitgliedern der Störfamilie, vom riesigen Beluga aus dem Kaspischen Meer bis hin zum forellengroßen Sterlet, der früher in westeuropäischen und britischen Flüssen vorkam und der Fisch der Könige war. Der schwarze Kaviar wird in Glasbehältern mit einem Gewicht von nur 50 Gramm geliefert und ist in zwei verschiedenen Varianten erhältlich: aus Fischfarmen oder wild. Die wilde Variante ist 40 % teurer als der Zuchtfischkaviar, aber der Unterschied zwischen beiden ist wie Tag und Nacht.

Außer den Plutokraten im Westen wagen es nur wenige von uns, den Unterschied zu erkunden. In Russland machen sogar Leute, die auf ihr Budget achten, den Geschmackstest, um ein denkwürdiges Jubiläum mit der richtigen Sorte Kaviar zu feiern.

In Belgien, Israel, Frankreich, Italien, Russland und sicherlich auch in vielen anderen Ländern bieten Geschäfte und Restaurants in der Wintersaison den vor Ort gezüchteten Störkaviar an, um einen Hauch von Extravaganz zu vermitteln. In Anbetracht der winzigen Mengen, die in Probiergläsern angeboten werden, spürt man den hohen Kilopreis nicht und gibt sich mit einem Produkt zufrieden, das nach meiner Erfahrung fast geschmacklos ist. Der echte wilde Beluga ist dagegen sinnlich und reich an Geschmack.

Dieser neue wilde Störkaviar in “Caviar and Fish” kostet zwischen 35 und 50 Euro für 50 Gramm, aber Sie und die Person, die Sie damit verwöhnen wollen, werden es nicht bereuen. Sie werden in die Blütezeit des sowjetischen Russlands zurückversetzt, als viele Dinge des öffentlichen Lebens vielleicht ziemlich schrecklich waren, aber die luxuriösen Essensgenüsse, die ausgewählten Nachkommen des Proletariats und ihren ausländischen Gästen zur Verfügung standen, waren außergewöhnlich.

Natürlich gibt es auch bodenständige gastronomische Genüsse, denen jeder hier frönen kann und dies auch tut, vor allem der kleine Fisch namens Korjuschka, der in der Zeit nach dem Eisbruch auf See und Fluss auf seinem Weg vom Ladogasee zum Finnischen Meerbusen zum Laichen gefangen wird. Jetzt ist die Zeit gekommen, und ein Teller voll frisch gebratener Koryushka ist in den kommenden Wochen ein Muss für Besucher der Stadt. Auf dem Markt werden diese Fische in der besten Größenklasse für etwa 7 Euro pro kg verkauft.

                                                                         *****

Ein reich gedeckter Tisch für Gäste ist eine Tradition, die tief in der hiesigen Kultur verwurzelt ist. Aber die Kehrseite der Medaille sind großzügige Geschenke der Gäste an die Gastgeber.

In Erwartung von Leserkommentaren, dass ich die Lebensweise der Wohlhabenden beschreibe, weise ich darauf hin, dass unsere Gäste aus der gesellschaftlichen Schicht der Intelligentsia kommen, die noch nie gut bezahlt oder mit guten Pensionen ausgestattet war und es auch heute nicht ist. Einer unserer Gäste ist ein Journalist im Halbruhestand, Redakteur einer Publikation des Journalistenverbandes und Teilzeitprofessor an einer Moskauer Schule für Fortbildung. Ein anderer Gast ist ein pensionierter Ingenieur, der Module für zivile Raketen entwickelt, dessen Rente nur deshalb überdurchschnittlich hoch ist, weil er ein blokadnik ist, d.h. ein Überlebender der Großen Belagerung von Leningrad im Zweiten Weltkrieg.

Die großzügigen Geschenke an den Gastgeber können die Form einer Flasche 15 Jahre alten georgischen Edelbranntweins (Konyak) annehmen, die uns unser Moskauer Freund vor ein paar Tagen mitgebracht hat. Aber es ist immer auch ein Blumenstrauß für die Dame des Hauses dabei. Und damit auch in unserem abgelegenen Stadtteil kein Besucher mit leeren Händen kommt, gibt es in unserem Wohnviertel einen 24-Stunden-Floristen, der nur 5 Minuten zu Fuß von unserem Haus entfernt ist. Unsere Gäste brachten sogar Rosen zu unserem Hausbankett mit.

Sanktionen hin oder her, der niederländische Blumenhandel funktioniert in Russland weiterhin sehr gut. Amsterdam ist die Quelle für fast alles, was Sie in den Geschäften sehen. Da die Preise für Blumen hier schon immer sehr hoch waren, werden die zusätzlichen Kosten für die Weiterleitung der Zahlungen an die Lieferanten unter Umgehung der SWIFT-Blockade ohne Probleme an die Verbraucher weitergegeben. Ich war erfreut, als ich neulich einige sehr frische Tulpen kaufen konnte und 10 Euro für 8 Blumen bezahlt habe, was einen Aufschlag von nur 20 % gegenüber dem Preis in Brüssel bedeutet.

Preise, die über dem westlichen Niveau liegen, gelten fast nie für Lebensmittel, die, wie Tucker Carlson richtig festgestellt hat, im Allgemeinen um ein Vielfaches (nicht um ein Prozent, sondern um ein Vielfaches) unter den Supermarktpreisen in Westeuropa liegen, wenn man Äpfel mit Äpfeln vergleicht.

Wir sollten jedoch nicht so tun, als hätten die Sanktionen für den russischen Verbraucher keine negativen Seiten. Dies wird deutlich, wenn man seine Aufmerksamkeit auf Computer, Smartphones, Heimelektronik, Haushaltsgeräte und Ähnliches lenkt. Hier genügt es zu sagen, dass die meisten bekannten globalen (westlichen) Marken seit Beginn der militärischen Sonderoperation verschwunden und nicht wieder aufgetaucht sind. Was Sie stattdessen in den Regalen für Computer-Notebooks oder Laptops sehen, würden wir als “No-Names” oder Marke X bezeichnen, die von chinesischen Herstellern für den heimischen Markt hergestellt werden. Und wenn Sie einen Asus oder Acer finden, dann bekommen Sie, wie ich von dem Verkäufer in unserer örtlichen Filiale einer landesweiten Elektronikkette gehört habe, keine Microsoft Office-Software. Und warum nicht? Wahrscheinlich liegt das an den Anweisungen des Herstellers. Das bedeutet nicht, dass Sie kein Office auf Ihrem Computer haben werden, aber Sie werden eine Raubkopie kaufen, und Microsoft kann Ihnen viel Kopfzerbrechen bereiten, wenn sie das merken, was sie sicherlich tun werden. Ich weiß das aus eigener Erfahrung.

Ich sage dies als “Anzahlung” für meine nächste Folge von Reisenotizen.

                                                                               *****

Bevor ich schließe, möchte ich mit Ihnen unsere Erfahrungen darüber teilen, was Russland und insbesondere St. Petersburg zu dem einzigartigen Kulturzentrum in der Welt macht, und was der entscheidende Grund dafür ist, dass ich Jahr für Jahr wiederkomme.

Wie ich bereits sagte, sind viele unserer langjährigen Freunde in der Stadt überzeugte Mitglieder der russischen Intelligenzia. Das macht sie per Definition zu interessanten Persönlichkeiten. Politisch gesehen sind sie fast alle per definitionem “Verwestlichte” oder “Liberale”. Aber in diesem Essay lasse ich die Politik beiseite.

Unsere Tamara arrangierte für uns sechs den Besuch eines “Konzerts”, das von einem bekannten Interpreten und Lehrer traditioneller russischer Romanzen an einem außergewöhnlichen Ort gegeben wurde: dem Geschäft für Musiknoten und Instrumente namens Sewernaja Lira (Nördliche Leier) am Newskij 26, gleich neben dem denkmalgeschützten Singer-Gebäude aus der Zeit vor der Revolution, das Anfang des 20. Jahrhunderts erbaut wurde und seit Jahrzehnten als Petersburgs führender Buchhändler fungiert.

Die Nördliche Leier gab es an dieser Adresse schon, bevor ich 1994 nach Petersburg zog, um dort zu arbeiten und zu leben. In diesem Geschäft kauften wir ein etwas abgenutztes, aber immer noch funktionstüchtiges Krasny Oktyabr-Klavier, das wir immer noch in unserer Wohnung haben. Hier kaufte ich alle meine Partituren, um Cello spielen zu lernen, bis hin zur deutschen Ausgabe von Bachs Suiten für unbegleitetes Cello.

Der Laden war früher schäbig. Er ist immer noch schäbig. Aber er wird von einem Team junger Musikenthusiasten betrieben, die dort offenbar die Art von Mini-Konzerten veranstalten, die wir gestern Abend gesehen haben. Sie haben nur Plätze für zehn Zuhörer, und die anderen, die während des Konzerts hereinkamen, waren Stehplätze. Es gab keine Anzüge und Krawatten, keine Cocktailkleider in diesem Publikum von Leuten mittleren Alters, die offensichtlich irgendeine Verbindung zu dem Laden oder dem Solisten haben. Es gab ein Kind, ein etwa 10-jähriges Mädchen mit seiner Mutter. Zahlenmäßig passte dieses Konzert perfekt zu den Salons des frühen 20. Jahrhunderts, in denen viele der Lieder entstanden und uraufgeführt wurden. Natürlich waren diese Salons zwangsläufig das Eigentum der Wohlhabenden.

Unsere Solistin hat eine perfekt geführte Stimme. Nicht stark, aber sehr präzise und angenehm für die Ohren. Begleitet wurde sie von einem hoch angesehenen und musikalisch sehr versierten Pianisten, der mit einem Preis der Russischen Föderation ausgezeichnet wurde. Sie präsentierten Romanzen, die größtenteils aus dem Repertoire einer berühmten Leningrader Bühnendarstellerin stammten, die vor vielen, vielen Jahren verstarb, aber als eine sehr wichtige Popularisatorin des Genres und als Inspiration für Komponisten ihrer Zeit gilt.

Der Laden trägt zwar den Untertitel Noty (Partituren), aber weder Solist noch Begleiter hatten Partituren. Sie konnten sich stundenlang allein auf ihr Gedächtnis verlassen. Diese musikalische Professionalität war stets das Markenzeichen der Sänger des Mariinsky-Theaters und anderer Petersburger Orchestermitglieder, die wir in den 1990er Jahren kennen gelernt hatten.

Das “Konzert” war kostenlos. Als wir durch die Schaufenster hinausgeschaut haben, sahen wir den Strom von Fußgängern auf dem Newski-Prospekt, die von diesem kulturellen Ereignis nichts mitbekamen. Noch weiter entfernt, auf der anderen Seite des Boulevards, steht die Kasanski-Kathedrale, ein Wahrzeichen dieser Stadt.

Ich kann mir ein solches Konzert in keiner anderen mir bekannten Stadt vorstellen, und das macht Petersburg besonders wertvoll.

Nach dem Konzert begleiteten wir unsere Freunde ein paar hundert Meter den Newski-Prospekt hinauf durch die Fußgängerscharen, die an einem angenehmen, trockenen Samstagabend wie gestern aus der ganzen Stadt auf diesen Boulevard strömen, um zu sehen und gesehen zu werden. So war es in den 1840er Jahren, so ist es heute.

Wir gingen in eines unserer Lieblingslokale in Petersburg, die Bar im Erdgeschoss des Grand Hotel Europe (Gostinitsa Evropeiskaya), um etwas zu trinken. Dies war das Lieblingshotel von Petr Iljitsch Tschaikowsky, in dem er unmittelbar nach seiner Ankunft aus dem Ausland ein Zimmer nahm. Es befindet sich direkt gegenüber der Philharmonie (ursprünglich ein Klub des Petersburger Adels) und dem so genannten Platz der Künste, auf dem sich die Gebäude des Russischen Museums und des Maly-Operntheaters (ursprünglich die Italienische Oper) befinden. Das Ensemble dieser Straßen stammt aus den 1820er Jahren. Heute gibt es in Petersburg viele 4- und 5-Sterne-Hotels, aber nur noch ein Grand Hotel d’Europe. Als wir das Hotel verließen, um das telefonisch bestellte Taxi zu nehmen, kam der ehemalige Kulturminister Mikhail Shvydkoi (2000-2004) mit seiner Frau im Taxi an. Offensichtlich ist dieses Hotel auch für ihn mit warmen Erinnerungen verbunden.

Travel is fun! The long route to St Petersburg

Dear readers,

In a couple of hours, I set out on the long route to St Petersburg.

Pre-Covid shut-down of intra European air travel,  pre-Special Military Operation sanctions, the journey from Brussels was accomplished by direct flight, Zaventem airport to Pulkovo airport in a little over two and a half hours. With the advent of the New Cold War, the latest and cheapest travel variant entails three forms of public transportation: air, sea and passenger bus and, all in all, takes 18 hours.

I will now fly to Helsinki, then take the sea ferry to Tallinn, arriving late and spending the night. The next morning there is a 7-hour bus ride to Russia’s Northern Capital. Several months ago a finishing touch was added to this last part of the journey when the Russians closed their border crossing to buses coming from/golng to the Estonian side, allegedly for months-long renovation of the facility, and now the happy travelers make the 750 meter crossing by foot through no-man’s land, mostly on a bridge over the Narva river.  Once reaching the other side there is a different bus provided by Estonian or Russian companies for the remainder of the journey.The effect is to accentuate the physical barrier separating two civilizations. Rain, snow, as we expect tomorrow, makes no difference to those on this new form of Compostela pilgrimage.

The harsh worsening of travel conditions that I have just described pertains to Europeans, for whom Russia was always just a short flight away.  Travelers from the USA and Rest of the World are less penalized, since overall travel time and expense for visitors crossing one or another ocean to get to Russia does not change much when you transit via Istanbul or Dubai.

So be it.

I will be spending close to three weeks in Petersburg, returning home shortly after the 9th of May Victory in Europe celebrations which are a very important part of the Russian calendar of public events.  Perhaps there will be an iteration of the March of the Immortal Regiment down Nevsky Prospekt that in recent years I found to be a wonderful opportunity to study the demos. Perhaps the march will be cancelled for security reasons in this period of heightened Ukrainian directed terrorism.  In any case, there will be a post-parade celebratory dinner with friends that provides another temperature reading on the public mood in this third year of ever widening and intensifying war.

As usual on my visits, I will also spend time out on the street checking supermarkets and farmers’markets to do an offhand measure of inflation and supply of consumables.

Stay tuned!

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Reisen macht Spaß! Der lange Weg nach St. Petersburg

Liebe Leserinnen und Leser,

in ein paar Stunden werde ich mich auf den langen Weg nach St. Petersburg machen.

Vor der Schließung des innereuropäischen Flugverkehrs wegen Covid und vor den Sanktionen im Rahmen der Militäroperation war die Reise von Brüssel aus mit einem Direktflug vom Flughafen Zaventem zum Flughafen Pulkowo in etwas mehr als zweieinhalb Stunden zu bewältigen. Mit dem Beginn des Neuen Kalten Krieges umfasst die neueste und billigste Reisevariante drei öffentliche Verkehrsmittel: Flugzeug, Schiff und Passagierbus und dauert insgesamt 18 Stunden.

Ich fliege jetzt nach Helsinki, nehme dann die Fähre nach Tallinn, komme spät an und übernachte dort. Am nächsten Morgen steht eine 7-stündige Busfahrt in die nördliche Hauptstadt Russlands an. Vor einigen Monaten wurde diesem letzten Teil der Reise noch ein i-Tüpfelchen aufgesetzt, als die Russen ihren Grenzübergang für Busse, die von der estnischen Seite kommen oder dorthin fahren, schlossen, angeblich wegen monatelanger Renovierungsarbeiten an den Anlagen, und nun legen die glücklichen Reisenden den 750 Meter langen Weg zum Grenzübergang durch Niemandsland zurück, meist auf einer Brücke über den Fluss Narva. Auf der anderen Seite angekommen, wird die restliche Strecke mit einem anderen Bus zurückgelegt, der von estnischen oder russischen Unternehmen bereitgestellt wird, um die physische Barriere zwischen zwei Zivilisationen zu verstärken. Ob es regnet oder schneit, wie wir es morgen erwarten, macht für die Teilnehmer an dieser neuen Form der Compostela-Pilgerreise keinen Unterschied.

Die soeben beschriebene drastische Verschlechterung der Reisebedingungen betrifft die Europäer, für die Russland immer nur einen kurzen Flug entfernt war. Reisende aus den USA und dem Rest der Welt sind weniger benachteiligt, da sich die Gesamtreisezeit und die Kosten für Besucher, die den einen oder anderen Ozean überqueren, um nach Russland zu gelangen, nicht wesentlich ändern, wenn sie über Istanbul oder Dubai reisen.

Sei’s drum.

Ich werde fast drei Wochen in Petersburg verbringen und kurz nach den Feierlichkeiten zum 9. Mai, dem Tag des Sieges in Europa, die einen wichtigen Teil des russischen Veranstaltungskalenders ausmachen, nach Hause zurückkehren. Vielleicht wird es eine Wiederholung des Marsches des Unsterblichen Regiments auf dem Newski-Prospekt geben, den ich in den letzten Jahren als eine wunderbare Gelegenheit zum Studium der Demos empfunden habe. Vielleicht wird der Marsch aus Sicherheitsgründen in dieser Zeit des verstärkten ukrainischen Terrorismus abgesagt. Auf jeden Fall wird es im Anschluss an die Parade ein feierliches Abendessen mit Freunden geben, das einen weiteren Aufschluss über die Stimmung in der Bevölkerung in diesem dritten Jahr des sich immer weiter ausbreitenden und intensivierenden Krieges gibt.

Wie bei meinen Besuchen üblich, werde ich auch Zeit auf der Straße verbringen und Supermärkte und Bauernmärkte besuchen, um mit eigenen Augen die Inflation und das Angebot an Konsumgütern zu messen.

Bleiben Sie dran!

Talking to Indian global broadcaster WION about Iran’s weekend strike on Israel

This morning’s 8 minute interview on India’s premier English language global broadcaster was high level and covered a number of issues well outside the narrow confines of what Mr. Netanyahu may or may not do next. I expect many readers will find value in it.

Transcript below by a reader

Hem Kaur Saroya: 0:01
World leaders have urged Israel not to retaliate after Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards its territory. Nearly three-quarters of the Israeli public opposes a retaliatory strike on Iran for its massive missile attack on the country, and that is if such an action would harm Israel’s security alliance with its allies. Washington intends to hit Iran with new sanctions, and on the other hand, according to official Kremlin statement, President Vladimir Putin has expressed hope that all sides will show reasonable restraint and prevent a confrontation that could have catastrophic consequences for the entire region.

The question remains, how will things pan out in the West Asian region? My name is Hem Kaur Soroya, and to discuss this further, we’re now being joined by Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, political analyst, author and historian. Thank you so much for joining us.

Doctorow:
Thanks for the invitation.

Hem Kaur Saroya:
Now, sir, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has told his soldiers that the country will know how to defeat its enemies, should conflict in West Asia escalate further. Israel has not mentioned when or how it will respond to the Iranian strikes, but it appears to be keen on a response. What’s your assessment of this?

Doctorow: 1:11
Well, yes, I understand from a political standpoint, he, as the leader of the military, is obliged to pledge at least a token response to appease the hardliners within the Netanyahu cabinet. However, he is under– and the Israeli military in general is under– a very stern reprimand, one can say, from its backers in the United States and from its allies abroad, because they, the United States in particular, are now held hostage by Iran, who have threatened to attack any bases, any forces in the region that would enable an Israeli strike on Iran.

Hem Kaur Saroya: 2:01
Right sir, in fact I was just going to come to this. Allies of both Iran and Israel, they have urged for de-escalation. In fact Moscow has urged restraint in talks with the Iranian president as well. Do you think Israel will still go ahead and that do alone if it has to in retaliating?

Doctorow:
Well, we have to understand what is meant by urging restraint and why they are urging restraint. It is not out of humanitarian considerations. It is out of their own self-interest and desire to preserve the equilibrium in the Middle East as it is today, because it is relatively speaking favorable to Israel and its allies. Should they respond, should Israel not heed the warnings, the very clear warnings from the United States and others, and proceed on an emotional basis to respond to the Iranian attack, they risk being isolated, they risk losing their supplies of weaponry, which are critical, not quite as critical to Israel as these supplies from outside are to Ukraine. But if there’s a prolonged conflict, the situation with Israel and its neighborhood will be as adverse and as dangerous for Israel as Ukraine has, pending the limited supplies it’s receiving from abroad. So Israel runs a very great risk if it should not listen to the sage advice coming out of Washington.

Hem Kaur Saroya: 3:31
All right. Now, when we speak of allies of both sides, Moscow as well as the United States, what sort of a role do you think they play here? Do you think both sides can effectively help de-escalate tensions in the region?

Doctorow:
The interests of Russia and also of China in bringing Iran into a group of constructive world leaders, has already occurred, going back to the membership of Iran in the Shanghai organization and in BRICS. This membership, which is demonstrated by the recent statements both from Moscow and from Beijing– that they support Iran in its self-defense measures, which are legitimate under the Article 51 of the United Nations charter– this political support coming from these two fellow members of BRICS, of course, tempers the behavior of Iran and is all to the good.

Hem Kaur Saroya: 4:42
All right. Now, if we come to the polls here, some polls suggest that nearly three quarters of the Israeli public opposes a retaliatory strike on Iran for its attack on the country. At a time when the Israeli prime minister has already been facing growing pressure over its operations in Gaza, how do you see things actually panning out for the Israeli prime minister and also in the region?

Doctorow:
Well, polls have been a very poor indicator of what the Netanyahu government will do. And that’s not surprising, because in general, governments do not follow what the street tells them, unless a revolution is imminent. The role of governments in foreign policy is exclusively theirs, and they are under no obligation– whether it’s the United States, whether it’s France, whether it’s Russia or any other country– they’re under no obligation to listen to the polls or what the street is telling them.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if Mr. Netanyahu does what he believes is essential within the political context of his cabinet and survival in power. That being said, the majority of his cabinet surely is for moderation. It is only a couple of extreme conservative, orthodox members of his cabinet who are troublemakers.

Hem Kaur Saroya: 5:59
All right. Now, also speaking of Iran now, for many, the growing partnership between Tehran and Moscow, that’s a cause of concern as well. It’s seen as strengthening the capabilities of both the countries. What are your thoughts on this?

Doctorow:
Well, why should that be unusual? The United States has its allies, and why shouldn’t the rest of the world also find common interests? Iran and Russia are not natural allies. The preference of the middle classes and perhaps large part of the government cadres within Iran was always to have some accommodation with the United States and with the West in general. It was only the complete break-off that followed Mr. Trump’s decision to leave the agreement over the pause in the Iranian nuclear program, it was only that which forced Iran to look for a new political orientation in foreign affairs.

7:03
Having said that, they have found a very remarkable complementarity of interests, both with Russia and with China. And so, the notion coming out of Washington that instructing Beijing to instruct Iran to stop supporting Russia is nonsense, is juvenile. The interests of countries, particularly countries that are following a realist foreign policy– as opposed to a romantic values-driven foreign policy– the interests of these countries is dominant in their individual foreign policy decisions. There is nothing whatever transactional on this. It is an ideological identity in the primacy of interest-based foreign policy.

Hem Kaur Saroya:
All right. Well, Dr. Doctorow, thank you so much for joining us on WION with your insights and your perspective on this.

Doctorow:
Thanks again.

Conversation with Press TV about the results of the weekend attack on Israel: Spotlight_15.04.24

Yesterday’s 24 minute Spotlight program was rather like a three-way conversation with the Teheran based moderator Marzieh Hashemi and Canada based fellow panelist, Yves Engler. The moderator was pitching to us the official Iranian position on what was achieved and sought our agreement or disagreement, as the case may be.

The main points in the official position are that the Iranian attack was justified under the terms of the UN Charter article 51 regarding each state’s right to self-defense; that the attack was intended to send a clear message to Israel that Iranian missiles can penetrate its Iron Dome and reach their designated targets, and that Teheran intentionally kept destruction to a minimum by giving advance notice of the attack and concentrating on two military sites while sparing civilians

See https://www.urmedium.net/c/presstv/129174

Transcript below by a reader

Marzieh Hashemi 0:21
Hello, and welcome to PressTV Spotlight. I’m Marzieh Hashemi. Thanks so much for being with us. Well, Iran, in an impressive display of strength, accuracy and technological prowess, sent hundreds of drones and missiles towards the Zionist-occupied territories during its retaliatory operation against the regime. Despite the Iron Dome and help from the United States, the UK, France and Jordan, in shooting down the drones, the Iranian missiles hit their targets, which were two bases, the Neverton military base and the Ramon Air Base were hit with accuracy. The paradigm in the region has been changed. What does it mean for the regime, the region, and the world? Stay with us as we take a look at all of this on the Spotlight.

I’d like to welcome my guests to the program. Out of Montreal, Yves Engler, author and political activist. And out of Brussels, Gilbert Doctorow, independent international affairs analyst.

Well thank you both for being with me. Let’s start this off in Montreal. And Yves, well, Iran’s retaliatory operation was initiated due to the Israeli regime’s attack on Iran’s consular section of the embassy in Damascus on April the 1st. Now. Tehran has cited Article 51, the Charter of the United Nations, and its right to self-defense. Your assessment of Iran’s right to have carried out this strike?

Yves Engler 1:58
Well, I’m not a lawyer or an expert in international law, but clearly Israel violated Iranian sovereignty in murdering a number of Iranian officials, including top generals, two weeks ago. So– and Israel has, of course, you know, killed many Iranians in Syria over recent years and also even is alleged to have been behind a whole series of operations within Iran that have killed different officials over the years. So, I think that it’s clear that Israel violated international law, and it seems at least a plausible argument that Iran had the right, according to international law, to respond to Israel’s aggression. So, you know, again, I’m not a lawyer, but on the surface of it, it seems that Iran obviously had a right to respond to Israel’s crass, brazen violation of international law.

Marzieh Hashemi: 3:09
Okay. Well, Gilbert, there are major attempts now to downplay the success of Iran’s True Promise operation. What is your perspective regarding the operation and the overall effectiveness of the strike?

Gilbert Doctorow 3:24
I think the operation has to be looked at on two levels, tactical and strategic. It was the tactical level, at a minimum, the Iranian attack provided important intelligence information to Iran on the components and the location of those components in the Israeli Iron Dome and air defense levels, because they have several different systems in operation. At the tactical level, the mission was disputed, as you have noted, that Iran claimed success in hitting its two military objects that were essential to its retaliatory response, whereas Western media tend to ignore or even to deny that any significant damage was done. That remains to be appraised in the future.

However, the very fact that Iran responded in this way, that in the first time ever in its history has directly struck the territory of Israel, thus sent a message through the whole community in the Middle East, which has a strategic level of importance, namely the clear warning that Iran issued, and that has to be taken seriously given the actions of this past weekend, is the warning that it made to other Gulf states, and in particular states which are home to American military bases and operational centers such as Bahrain is.

And these warnings were that if you facilitate the counter-attack that one may expect or think will happen from Israel in response to this weekend’s massive drone and ballistic missile and cruise missile attack on Israel– if you facilitate an Israeli response, we will bomb you. The fact is that none of the players in the news wants to be brought into the war directly. And so what has happened as a consequence of this exercise by Iran, a limited exercise over the weekend, is that the neighbors are withdrawing their permission for the United States to operate and to use the airspace of these countries to support Israel in any future counterattack.

Now, that is something that Iran has strived to achieve over decades, and it seems to have been achieved in one weekend. So at a tactical level, there may be disputes over what was actually done on the ground. There is no dispute that Iran showed it is capable of, self-confident in pursuing a military confrontation with Israel, if that is what has to happen. And at a strategic level, it has changed the game in the Middle East, because all the neighboring states have backed away from the United States.

Marzieh Hashemi: 6:43
OK. Well, Yves, no country has dared to attack inside of the Israeli regime, to the Western hegemonic front’s unwavering support for the regime. But Iran chose to do it, and has been effective. Now, your thoughts on the overall attack, and is it a game changer? Iran was able to penetrate several layers of defense from the regime itself and also from the United States, France, the UK and Jordan. That in itself is extremely effective. Your thoughts?

Yves Engler: 7:23
Well, I agree with my co-panelist’s assessment to a large extent. I think this is significant. There’s a kind of two different angles being done in the Canadian and Western media. On one hand, saying that Iran has drastically escalated things, and then at the same time saying that Iran has been unsuccessful, which is a little bit in contradiction with each other. So, you know, whether this is going to be a game changer for the region, I’m a little bit hesitant on that front. I think that … I’m made scared by the situation, because I think that there really are fanatics in charge of the Israeli government and military.

And I think that even if the U.S. and others have tried to warn Israel to not do something really crazy in response, I think there’s a decent chance that the Netanyahu government will do a– launch something that is a huge escalation from an already tense situation, and that could spiral into something even bigger. But I think that to me, the hope here is that Israel is restrained in terms of its response to Iran, and also that Israel and the other countries in the region that have, like Jordan for instance, that, you know, helped shoot down drones, that this puts a whole lot of pressure on that government to do more to end the genocide in Gaza, and that Israel is put more on the back foot in its policy in Gaza. But at this point, I don’t think it’s clear, you know, what the Israeli reaction is going to be, and if the most crazy elements of the Israeli government will be restrained.

Marzieh Hashemi: 9:45
Hmm. Okay, well, Gilbert, Iran says its goals of the operation were deterring, punishing, and warning the Zionist regime. Do you think that it reached its goals?

Gilbert Doctorow: 9:58
I think it has. Of course, we’ll know in the coming days whether the Israeli government acts rationally or pursues an emotional response that is self-destructive. It has been stated in the Western press that the Iranian attack was the largest-in-scale use of drones and other missiles to a single day. This was 320 or something like that, missiles and other objects sent away to Israel. However, let’s look at the numbers. This is a numbers game. And you have to consider that the potential of Iran to deliver a devastating or more than one devastating attack on the very compact geography of Israel is overwhelmingly clear.

The numbers of missiles in the Iranian inventory– including the most recent, most modern, and most destructive missiles that number several thousand– can be as many as 10,000. So in this respect, what happened over the weekend was only indicative and a warning of what can come. There is no way that a massive, genuinely massive, missile strike against Israel can be turned back by an Iron Dome or any other air defense system. So in this context any action by Israel that wants to be a macho is going to be self-destructive.

Marzieh Hashemi: 11:44
Okay, well your thoughts about that, Yves, because if, according to Gilbert, if the Israeli regime understands that any action they will take will be self-destructive– because I want to go back to what you said, and when you talked about the regime and the possibility of actually now them initiating an attack. But how logical would that be, when even Iran has not used its more sophisticated missiles, but still were able to penetrate?

Now Iran is saying that it did not want to cause any major damage, it wanted to send a message, and it sent that message by hitting those two bases. It also did not want to hit any civilian areas, which perhaps can be a lesson for the Israeli regime. Your thoughts on that side of things.

Yves Engler: 12:35
Well, I think the Israelis are caught, because the Israelis want to– this, you know, psycho power that unleashes far more destruction on anyone else than is ever committed on them is part of their whole raison d’etre, how they operate. And obviously we see that in Gaza, that in response to the October 7th, they feel the need to demonstrate how violent and try to scare the whole region. So Israel wants to operate like that. So I think the general ethos from the Israeli government is going to be to respond in that way. And also, I think the fact that they are failing in their stated objectives in Gaza, in that they haven’t got the hostages and Hamas is still able to operate, that that makes them want to lash out even more.

But I agree that the likely response, if Israel does go, let’s call it crazy, in its response to Iran, then there’s going to be a lot of damage in Israel. And the Israeli public is, you know, their little bubble’s going to burst. The reality is, even despite October 7th, Israelis have lived a fairly quiet existence while occupying and brutalizing Palestinians. But, you know, I wouldn’t, unfortunately, I wouldn’t put it past the Netanyahu government to pursue something that’s on the very escalatory side of a response. I would assume there’s going to be some response from Israel. I don’t think Israel is going to be able to not respond in any way.

But, yeah, I mean, I think that the Israeli military and the Israeli government are caught in a difficult position from their standpoint, in that they want to be the bully that gets to do all the killing and gets to do all the damage and not have any impact or very little impact on Israeli society. And now they’ve been confronted with the fact that much of Israel could be destroyed if they try to, you know, keep up that that bully posture.

Marzieh Hashemi: 15:15
Hmm. Well Gilbert, Iran has said that they have not shown the most of their ability. They just wanted to send this message and serve as a deterrent. However, that if the Israeli regime continues with its aggression, that it will definitely respond in much harsher ways inside of the regime. Your thoughts about, first of all, what Iran is saying, and second of all, how likely can that serve as a deterrent in itself?

Gilbert Doctorow: 15:51
Well, the Israelis are very dependent on the United States and other allies to enable their very powerful armed forces, to maintain that posture of strength. And as the warning of Iran regarding how it will behave, should there be a forceful Israeli response to this latest weekend’s events, that has, as I said, frightened the neighborhood and sobered up the neighborhood, so that they are stepping away from the United States.

But Mr. Biden has urged caution on Israel. It is not a matter of his humanitarian disposition. It is a realization that American bases in the neighborhood are hostage to Israeli actions. And the head of the regional operational center for the United States is under threat. The base of the 5th Fleet is under threat, under massive threat that Iran can carry out, depending on what the Israelis do next.

Now if we have to look at what the Israelis would like to do, what Netanyahu would like to do, we don’t have to guess. He has talked about it for the last five or ten years. He would like to destroy the alleged Iranian nuclear program, that is, weaponry. And here Mr. Netanyahu is totally dependent on American support. Because the facilities in Iran are at a great distance from Israel, and Israeli planes can achieve missions only with the help of American tanker planes. Mr. Biden would have to then be in the midst of any Israeli attack and it’s hardly credible that he will do that now, given the vulnerability of American assets in the region.

So what Israelis could do, how they could realize their dreams, it is unforeseeable, it is improbable that their dreams can be fulfilled, that they can do damage of a great significance to Iran. Iran is vastly larger, it is ten times bigger in population. It is inconceivable that Israel could deliver a damage to Iran that would not be immediately turned into destruction of Israel. So I think that however hotheads may exist in the Israeli cabinet– there are at least two of them who are quite prominent in their rabid remarks– I don’t think that they can prevail against the common sense and the sense of self-preservation of their colleagues.

Marzieh Hashemi: 19:01
Well, your thoughts, Yves, on the significance of the United States not getting involved and coming so far to the aid of the Zionists to attack Iran. Gilbert pointed out some points, but I’d like to hear your perspective.

Yves Engler: 19:14
Well, I mean, the U.S. did help in shooting down and destroying some of the drones and missiles. So the U.S. has provided help, and they, of course, provide innumerable forms of support to the Israeli military at all times, and intelligence and weapons, et cetera, et cetera. Whether they will enable, directly enable Israel to strike nuclear facilities in Iran, I would venture to guess they won’t. I agree with that. You know, we don’t know, the U.S. tried to say they had no role in the attack on April 1st. I don’t know if that’s correct or not. In a direct sense, it may be correct, but you know, indirectly, there’s so many ways in which they enabled Israeli military and also the fact that they failed to condemn the attack, you know, a sort of tacit endorsement of what Israel did.

I think the U.S. is divided. Also, I think this is, you know, one of the things that Israel obviously wants to draw the U.S. into fighting Iran as much as possible, and I don’t think it’s just around destroying, you know, alleged nuclear program. I think they would probably like– Israel would like to see the U.S. just, you know, destroy Iran generally, but– and certainly, you know, destroy as much of its military as possible. I still think that the, you know, Biden is so wildly pro-Israel and there’s so many of the upper echelons of his administration that are so wildly pro-Israel– and so much of the Republican and the political culture in the U.S. is so pro-Israel– I think there’s still a possibility here that Israel does something, you know, very aggressive in its response and the U.S. is sucked into defending Israel and fighting Iran in a more, in a direct sense.

So, I think that that’s definitely a possibility. And it’s just so many ways in which all that can escalate, too. I mean, you know, the more bombings in Syria, and there’s obviously Russian forces in Syria, and you can draw in, obviously, you know, Hezbollah will be part of this. But there’s a lot of ways in which this can escalate quite quickly. But I don’t think that, I wouldn’t put it past the fact that the Biden administration will end up being directly involved against Iran on behalf of Israel.

Marzieh Hashemi: 21:58
Your thoughts, Gilbert, on where this could go. Because on the one hand, we have the resistance front and their allies. We’re looking at, of course, the traditional resistance front. We also have Russia and China now coming out and supporting Iran’s right to initiate that retaliatory attack. I mean, your overall assessment of where this can go at this point in time.

Gilbert Doctorow: 22:25
Well, it can go in all directions, and it can take us to very dramatic change in global economics. Iran has many possibilities of defending itself and imposing enormous pain on those who attack it. Last week, we all learned about the taking of a merchant vessel, a container vessel, Israeli-owned, in the Straits of Hormuz, and it’s being directed to Iranian port. The Straits of Hormuz are under close watch of Iran, which has ground to naval vessel attack missiles capable of closing the straits and strangling the global movement of natural gas and oil.

That is to say, the amount of pain that any of Iran’s enemies can think of imposing on Iran is held in check by the reality of the pain that Iran can impose on the world at large. So I am skeptical that this will go off in a wild direction, since all parties are aware of what I just said. However, tit-for-tat, at a less than awful level, are foreseeable or possible, and I sincerely hope that the conflict will remain contained.

Marzieh Hashemi: 24:14
Okay. And on that note, I thank both of you for being with me here on the Spotlight. Yves Engler, author and political activist out of Montreal. Gilbert Doctorow, independent international affairs analyst out of Brussels. And thank you viewers for being with us on another Spotlight, I’m Marzieh Hashemi, signing out for myself and all the crew right here in Tehran. Hope to see you right here next time.
24:35

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Gespräch mit Press TV über die Ergebnisse des Angriffs auf Israel vom Wochenende: Spotlight 15.04.24

Die gestrige 24-minütige Spotlight-Sendung glich eher einem Dreiergespräch mit der in Teheran ansässigen Moderatorin Marzieh Hashemi und ihrem in Kanada lebenden Gesprächspartner Yves Engler. Die Moderatorin legte uns die offizielle iranische Position zu den Errungenschaften dar und bat um unsere Zustimmung oder Ablehnung, je nachdem.

Die wichtigsten Punkte in der offiziellen Stellungnahme sind, dass der iranische Angriff gemäß Artikel 51 der UN-Charta, der das Recht jedes Staates auf Selbstverteidigung betrifft, gerechtfertigt war; dass der Angriff eine klare Botschaft an Israel senden sollte, dass iranische Raketen den Iron Dome durchdringen und die vorgesehenen Ziele erreichen können, und dass Teheran die Zerstörung absichtlich auf ein Minimum beschränkte, indem es den Angriff im Voraus ankündigte und sich auf zwei militärische Einrichtungen konzentrierte, während die Zivilbevölkerung verschont wurde.

Siehe https://www.urmedium.net/c/presstv/129174

What you need to know about the Iranian attack on Israel but will not find in your mainstream news provider

Iran’s weekend massive drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attack on Israel has now been covered in the global media, with the headlines announcing that 99% of the barrage was shot down by Israeli, U.S. and other friendly air defense systems. The question these media pose is what will be the Israeli response, as if that were a matter strictly to be decided by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet.

In fairness, I note that The Financial Times has also published a front page article setting out what it considers to be the Iranian perspective on the attack, namely that it was successful insofar as it demonstrated their country is not shying away from direct military confrontation with Israel and is confidently prepared to prosecute a full scale war if it comes to that.  See “We’re crazier than you realize”: Iran delivers its message with attack on Israel. Tehran believes calibrated missile and drone barrage is enough to restore deterrent and bolster image.”

However, the Iranian position is much more nuanced and contains far greater threat not only to Israel but also to the entire United States presence in the region than the FT suggests. I say this on the basis of an analysis provided on last night’s edition of the Vladimir Solovyov talk show on Russian state television by a regular panelist, Semyon Arkadievich Bagdasarov, who is a leading Russian specialist on the region.

For those who wish to see and hear Bagdasarov’s 14 minutes on air in the original Russian, the link is

https://all-make.su/22174-vecher-s-solovyovym-14-04-2024/   minutes:  27 – 41.

In what follows I offer a brief biographical sketch of Bagdasarov so that the seriousness of his remarks can be better appreciated. Then I will summarize what he said on air.

                                                                    *****

Aged 69, Bagdasarov was born in Central Asia in the Ferghana Valley, which passes through Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan and Kyrgyzstan.  Accordingly, he has the proper birthright to his position since 2014 as director of the think tank called the Center for the Study of the Countries of the Near East and Central Asia. However, Bagdasarov reached this academic plateau after passing through a succession of military and civilian government posts, including the 5 years starting in 2007 as a Duma member from the ‘For a Just Russia opposition party of Sergei Mironov, which might be described as slightly to the Left of the ruling United Russia party.

Bagdasarov’s professional education was in a military academy and he ultimately retired with the rank of colonel. He then moved into government service first at the regional level and then as an expert to the Duma, to which, as I said above, he was later elected.

In line with what the FT article has said, Bagdasarov calls the Iranian attack on Israel a limited strike intended as a warning, but also yielding both specific tactical and strategic results. 

On the tactical side, the swarming of drones was intended to activate the Iron Dome and other levels of Israeli air defense and to reveal the location of their component parts as well as to deplete the Israeli stock of relevant missiles.

Per Bagdasarov, Israeli claims to have shot down 99% of the incoming barrage should be taken with a grain of salt. The Iranians’ key targets in the attack were the Israeli air force base in the south of the country from which the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was launched two weeks ago and a military intelligence compound which had prepared that deadly strike. The actual extent of damage from Iranian missiles remains to be evaluated.

Bagdasarov explains that the Iranian attack was ‘limited’ because it consisted of rather slow moving drones and of missiles with small warheads.  These were not Iran’s most advanced and lethal attack materiel, which has been held in reserve for any possible Round Two.

How many drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles does Iran have?  Bagdasarov says no one knows exactly but it may well be 10,000 or more and includes several hundred highly advanced missiles which also have multiple warheads and so are very difficult to defend against.  Over the past 20 years, Iran has bet its defense budget on missiles and drones, and it has a large-scale serial production of both. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional allies also have large stocks of these weapons, some of which are also fairly sophisticated. In particular, Hizbollah in Lebanon may have 1500 high quality missiles in its arsenal.

At the strategic level, Iran demonstrated its ability to coordinate a missile and drone attack on Israel with its regional proxies so as to maximize the threat coming from all directions.

Iran used the attack to achieve a political and military objective that has long eluded it. Teheran has now issued threats against Persian Gulf states to bomb any and all that allow the Americans to use their air space or otherwise facilitate Israel’s possible revenge attack on Iran from their territories.  These states all fear a war and have now agreed to Iran’s demand. In effect, this negates decades of U.S. unchallenged domination in the Gulf.

Iran has specifically threatened the U.S. regional command in Qatar and the base of the 5th fleet in Bahrain.

The latter point is reflected in Biden’s latest urging restraint on Israel.  Washington has understood that its forces in the region are now hostage to whatever Netanyahu may do against Iran as follow-up to this weekend’s barrage.

Furthermore, at the threat level, Iran has a still unused but clearly visible ace in the hole: its ability at will to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and thereby cut off nearly all export shipments of gas and oil from the region. The Straits are just 50 km wide and are easily controlled by Iran’s anti-ship missiles ashore. Such a closure would create havoc on global energy markets. We were reminded of Iran’s dominant position there several days ago when they captured a container ship owned by an Israeli millionaire which was traveling through and directed it to their own coast.

And what about Israel’s alleged plans to attack Iran’s nuclear installations?  Bagdasarov insists that this is an impossible objective.  Firstly, because the Iranian nuclear program is distributed among 200 centers spread across the vast country and many of these locations are in desert areas buried under 40 meters of sand.  The Israelis might only destroy a couple of the best known nuclear centers. Secondly, because to reach their targets in Iran, the Israeli jets would require in-air refueling by American tankers, and it is scarcely credible that Biden will give his consent considering how the U.S. regional bases are under threat.

Iran fired this time only on military objects, but if they use not 300 but 10,000 missiles and drones then Israel will be obliterated.  Hizbollah alone have 1,500 advanced missiles.  Iran surely has real missiles and drones that are still more powerful.  No one knows exactly how many.   Over the past 20 years Iran placed its bets on drones and missiles. In the assortment, they have some very sophisticated multi warhead missiles that are unstoppable.

Later in the program (at 1 hour 36 minutes) a military commentator who is a frequent panelist on the Solovyov show, Lt General (retired), Yevgeny Buzhinsky, head of the Center of Applied Military Research of Moscow State University, seconded the estimation of Bagdasarov that this was just a warning, a PR exercise by Iran. As for the shoot-down, he noted that with its S400 and other systems Russia has probably the best air defense in the world, and yet they strain to reach the 99% interception that Israel has blithely claimed.

As host Vladimir Solovyov commented at the opening of the program, the principal fact is that the Iranians did it. They spat on the U.S. and its allies, and they just did what they believed was necessary. In consequence the world ‘built on rules’ counts for nothing.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Was Sie über den iranischen Angriff auf Israel wissen müssen, aber nicht in Ihren Mainstream-Nachrichten finden werden

Über Irans massiven Drohnen-, Marschflugkörper- und ballistischen Raketenangriff auf Israel am Wochenende haben die Medien weltweit berichtet, wobei die Schlagzeilen verkündeten, dass 99 % der Drohnen und Raketen von israelischen, US-amerikanischen und anderen befreundeten Luftabwehrsystemen abgeschossen wurden. Die Frage, die in diesen Medien gestellt wird, ist die nach der israelischen Antwort, als ob dies eine Angelegenheit wäre, die ausschließlich vom Kabinett von Premierminister Netanjahu zu entscheiden wäre.

Fairerweise muss ich anmerken, dass die Financial Times ebenfalls einen Artikel auf der Titelseite veröffentlicht hat, in dem sie die iranische Sichtweise des Angriffs darlegt, nämlich dass dieser insofern erfolgreich war, als er gezeigt hat, dass ihr Land eine direkte militärische Konfrontation mit Israel nicht scheut und selbstbewusst bereit ist, einen ausgewachsenen Krieg zu führen, wenn es dazu kommt. Siehe “Wir sind verrückter als ihr denkt”: Iran übermittelt seine Botschaft mit einem Angriff auf Israel. Teheran glaubt, dass ein kalibrierter Raketen- und Drohnenbeschuss ausreicht, um die Abschreckung wiederherzustellen und das Image zu stärken.”

Die iranische Position ist jedoch viel nuancierter und birgt eine weitaus größere Bedrohung nicht nur für Israel, sondern auch für die gesamte Präsenz der Vereinigten Staaten in der Region, als die FT annimmt. Ich sage dies auf der Grundlage einer Analyse, die in der gestrigen Ausgabe der Wladimir-Solowjow-Talkshow des russischen Staatsfernsehens von einem regelmäßigen Diskussionsteilnehmer, Semjon Arkadjewitsch Bagdasarow, einem führenden russischen Experten für die Region, vorgelegt wurde.

Für diejenigen, die Bagdasarows 14-minütige Sendung im russischen Original sehen und hören möchten, hier der Link

https://all-make.su/22174-vecher-s-solovyovym-14-04-2024/   minutes:  27 – 41.

Im Folgenden möchte ich eine kurze biografische Skizze von Bagdasarov geben, um die Ernsthaftigkeit seiner Äußerungen besser einschätzen zu können. Anschließend fasse ich zusammen, was er in der Sendung gesagt hat.

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Der 69-jährige Bagdasarow wurde in Zentralasien im Ferghana-Tal geboren, das durch Usbekistan, Tadschikistan und Kirgisistan verläuft. Dementsprechend ist er seit 2014 Direktor der Denkfabrik “Zentrum für das Studium der Länder des Nahen Ostens und Zentralasiens”. Dieses akademische Niveau erreichte Bagdasarow jedoch erst, nachdem er eine Reihe von militärischen und zivilen Regierungsposten durchlaufen hatte, darunter auch die fünf Jahre ab 2007 als Duma-Mitglied der Oppositionspartei ‚Für ein gerechtes Russland‘ von Sergej Mironow, die man als leicht links von der Regierungspartei ‚Einiges Russland‘ bezeichnen könnte.

Bagdasarow absolvierte eine Militärakademie und wurde schließlich mit dem Rang eines Oberst pensioniert. Danach trat er in den Staatsdienst ein, zunächst auf regionaler Ebene und dann als Experte in der Duma, in die er, wie ich bereits sagte, später gewählt wurde.

Im Einklang mit dem FT-Artikel bezeichnet Bagdasarow den iranischen Angriff auf Israel als einen begrenzten Schlag, der als Warnung gedacht war, aber auch konkrete taktische und strategische Ergebnisse brachte.

Auf der taktischen Seite sollten die Drohnenschwärme den Iron Dome [die Eiserne Kuppel] und andere Ebenen der israelischen Luftverteidigung aktivieren und den Standort ihrer Bestandteile aufdecken sowie den israelischen Bestand an relevanten Raketen dezimieren.

Die israelische Behauptung, 99 % des eintreffenden Bombardements abgeschossen zu haben, ist laut Bagdasarow mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Die wichtigsten Ziele des iranischen Angriffs waren der israelische Luftwaffenstützpunkt im Süden des Landes, von dem aus der israelische Angriff auf das iranische Konsulat in Damaskus vor zwei Wochen gestartet wurde, sowie ein militärisches Geheimdienstzentrum, das diesen tödlichen Angriff vorbereitet hatte. Das tatsächliche Ausmaß des Schadens durch iranische Raketen muss noch ermittelt werden.

Bagdasarov erklärt, dass der iranische Angriff “begrenzt” war, da er aus sich eher langsam bewegenden Drohnen und aus Raketen mit kleinen Sprengköpfen bestand. Es handelte sich nicht um das modernste und tödlichste iranische Angriffsmaterial, das für eine mögliche zweite Runde in Reserve gehalten wird.

Wie viele Drohnen, ballistische Raketen und Marschflugkörper besitzt der Iran? Bagdasarow sagt, niemand wisse es genau, aber es könnten durchaus 10.000 oder mehr sein, darunter mehrere hundert hochmoderne Raketen, die auch mehrere Sprengköpfe haben und daher sehr schwer abzuwehren sind. In den letzten 20 Jahren hat der Iran sein Verteidigungsbudget auf Raketen und Drohnen verwettet und produziert beides in großem Maßstab in Serie. Inzwischen verfügen auch die regionalen Verbündeten des Iran über große Bestände dieser Waffen, von denen einige ebenfalls recht hoch entwickelt sind. Insbesondere die Hisbollah im Libanon verfügt möglicherweise über 1.500 hochwertige Raketen in ihrem Arsenal.

Auf strategischer Ebene hat der Iran seine Fähigkeit unter Beweis gestellt, einen Raketen- und Drohnenangriff auf Israel mit seinen regionalen Vertretern zu koordinieren, um die Bedrohung aus allen Richtungen zu maximieren.

Der Iran hat den Angriff genutzt, um ein politisches und militärisches Ziel zu erreichen, das er schon lange nicht mehr verfolgt hat. Teheran hat nun den Staaten am Persischen Golf gedroht, alle zu bombardieren, die den Amerikanern die Nutzung ihres Luftraums gestatten oder auf andere Weise einen möglichen Vergeltungsangriff Israels auf den Iran von ihrem Territorium aus ermöglichen. Diese Staaten fürchten alle einen Krieg und haben nun der Forderung des Irans zugestimmt. Damit ist die jahrzehntelange unangefochtene Vorherrschaft der USA am Golf faktisch zunichte gemacht.

Der Iran hat insbesondere das US-Regionalkommando in Katar und den Stützpunkt der 5. Flotte in Bahrain bedroht.

Der letztgenannte Punkt spiegelt sich in Bidens jüngstem Aufruf zur Zurückhaltung gegenüber Israel wider. Washington hat begriffen, dass seine Streitkräfte in der Region nun Geisel dessen sind, was Netanjahu im Anschluss an das Bombardement vom Wochenende gegen den Iran unternehmen wird.

Darüber hinaus verfügt der Iran auf der Ebene der Bedrohung über ein noch ungenutztes, aber deutlich sichtbares Ass im Ärmel: seine Fähigkeit, nach Belieben die Straße von Hormuz zu blockieren und damit fast alle Gas- und Ölexporte aus der Region abzuschneiden. Die Straße von Hormuz ist nur 50 km breit und kann von Irans Anti-Schiffs-Raketen an Land leicht kontrolliert werden. Eine solche Sperrung würde die globalen Energiemärkte in Aufruhr versetzen. An die beherrschende Stellung Irans in der Meerenge wurden wir vor einigen Tagen erinnert, als das Land ein Containerschiff, das einem israelischen Millionär gehörte und auf der Durchfahrt war, gekapert und an die eigene Küste gesteuert hat.

Und was ist mit den angeblichen Plänen Israels, die Nuklearanlagen des Irans anzugreifen? Bagdasarov besteht darauf, dass dies ein unmögliches Ziel ist. Erstens, weil das iranische Atomprogramm auf 200 Zentren verteilt ist, die über das ganze Land verstreut sind, und viele dieser Standorte befinden sich in Wüstengebieten, die unter 40 Metern Sand begraben sind. Die Israelis könnten nur einige der bekanntesten Nuklearzentren zerstören. Zweitens würden die israelischen Jets, um ihre Ziele im Iran zu erreichen, Luftbetankung durch amerikanische Tankflugzeuge benötigen, und es ist kaum glaubhaft, dass Biden seine Zustimmung geben wird, wenn man bedenkt, dass die regionalen US-Basen bedroht sind.

Der Iran hat dieses Mal nur auf militärische Objekte gefeuert, aber wenn er nicht 300, sondern 10.000 Raketen und Drohnen einsetzen würde, würde Israel ausgelöscht. Allein die Hisbollah verfügt über 1.500 moderne Raketen. Der Iran hat sicherlich echte Raketen und Drohnen, die noch leistungsfähiger sind. Keiner weiß genau, wie viele. In den letzten 20 Jahren hat der Iran auf Drohnen und Raketen gesetzt. Im Sortiment haben sie einige sehr ausgeklügelte Raketen mit mehreren Sprengköpfen, die nicht zu stoppen sind.

Später in der Sendung (bei 1 Stunde 36 Minuten) schloss sich ein Militärkommentator, der häufig in der Solowjow-Sendung zu Wort kommt, Generalleutnant a.D. Jewgeni Buschinski, Leiter des Zentrums für angewandte Militärforschung der Staatlichen Universität Moskau, der Einschätzung von Bagdasarow an, dass es sich nur um eine Warnung, eine PR-Übung des Iran gehandelt habe. Was den Abschuss anbelangt, so merkte er an, dass Russland mit seinen S400- und anderen Systemen wahrscheinlich über die beste Luftabwehr der Welt verfüge, und dass es dennoch Mühe habe, die von Israel munter behaupteten 99 % Abfangquote zu erreichen.

Wie Gastgeber Wladimir Solowjow zu Beginn der Sendung sagte, ist die wichtigste Tatsache, dass es die Iraner waren. Sie haben die USA und ihre Verbündeten bespuckt und einfach getan, was sie für notwendig hielten. Infolgedessen zählt die Welt der regelbasierten Ordnung nichts.

Is the West hopelessly overwhelmed by “Satanism” as Russian media suggest?

In his recent book The Russian Art of War, which I heartily recommend to all who want to understand why and how Western politicians and media experts have condemned Ukraine to a tragic defeat, author Jacques Baud highlights the distinction between propaganda and disinformation. The former tends to blow out of proportion one’s own advantages, while the latter is outright lies about one’s opponents.

In this regard, I have to say that Russian state media have for many months been engaging in disinformation by spreading the myth of the decline and imminent fall of Western civilization under pressure from the LGBTQ+ movement, by secularism run amok and other aberrant behavior now celebrated as ‘inclusivism’ in many American states and in the most progressive EU countries.

To be sure, the visual demonstrations on Sixty Minutes and Evening with Vladimir Solovyov of the ‘Satanism’ that they say has overtaken the West and is a prelude to its collapse, in the spirit of the sage observation from the past that ‘those whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad,’ these videos are taken from major U.S. and European television channels.  Of course, for the most part the reporting was generated in the West by producers who are practicing ‘tabloid’ journalism. Along with stories on UFOs, videos of parades by the morally depraved sell newspapers and improve ratings.

However, for Russian state television it all serves the ongoing Information War in which the Kremlin counters the libelous anti-Putin,  anti-Russian narrative emanating from Washington, London and Brussels with its own narrative in which Russia is the defender of traditional values against the Satanists and perverts who now rule in Western countries. Russian television airs special programs on how normal God-fearing Christians living in the West are resettling in Russia to raise their children in a morally healthy environment.

I write to you today from Knokke, a resort on the Belgian seacoast 120 km from Brussels and 20 km from Bruges, the epicenter of foreign tourism in Belgium, where the reality around me in my rented apartment totally overturns all notions of the West’s moral decline and possible fall.  Indeed, Vladimir Putin could move here tomorrow and feel totally comfortable with the way traditional values predominate daily life.

This city of 33,000 is probably the wealthiest per capita in Belgium. That is worth noting because the crusade against traditional values is everywhere being waged by elites, not by your ‘man in the street,’ for reasons of political gain through the divide and conquer aspect of identity politics. I say ‘wealthy’ in a qualified sense:  when studio apartments sell for half a million and family apartments sell for two or three million euros, the owners are properly speaking ‘millionaires.’ At the same time, they are not billionaires, who are more likely to have their getaway residences on the shores of Lake Como in Italy or in other more prestigious foreign locations. My educated guess is that the folks I see strolling down the digue (literally, ‘dike’ but in fact a very wide sidewalk that borders the beach) in these days before the season starts are successful owners of small businesses, high executives in major corporations and  high civil servants, all of whom work for a living. They are Belgians with a small admixture of vacationing Germans, French and visitors from other nearby countries. During the high season, there are a great number of day visitors who come from all levels of Belgian society and whom I will not take into account in what follows.

The overwhelming impression is that Knokke is a family resort. There are a great number of young couples pushing baby carriages with their newly hatched offspring or accompanying toddlers and kindergarten age kids who are taking their first rides on scooters or bikes. But there are also great numbers of retirees who are taking charge of their grandchildren on weekends or holidays while the parents get time off.

There does not appear to be any decline of fecundity in Flanders. Many couples have two or three children in tow. Among the adolescents, there are ‘girl power’ threesomes, and the boys are similarly grouped. But at dating age, all I see is heterosexual couples.

I have no doubt that the traditional rule of 10% homosexuals holds true in the populations in Knokke, but as in the past there is no aggressive promotion of alternative life styles here, no ‘in your face’ parades. There are no sex neutral toilets or advertising for sex change operations in the media.

There is a well cared for Catholic church in the midst of the Knokke shopping district. They have an 11.30am Sunday mass, which I may visit later today to do a headcount.  But religion is not a big social determinant in a culture that is strongly commercial like the one in Knokke. We have seven day a week shopping, and stores are full on Sunday as well as on other days.

The mood here is ‘la vie en rose’ as the good times roll on for this stratum of the population at least. This good life centers on the innocent pleasures of the table. There are a great many very good restaurants in Knokke and also some restaurants of gastronomic distinction. They all seem to be well patronized. The concentration here is much greater than in Brussels. Then there are also a large number of top quality traiteurs, i.e., caterers, many of whom offer prepared and portioned gourmet food for take-away at half the cost in restaurants.

What else is a beach bordering the cold waters of the English channel good for if not staring out at the sea or at the digue strollers with a mug of beer and some chips or peanuts ready to hand? My grandfather, who came from Lithuania, often repeated that ‘there is no bad beer.’ I don’t quite know what he had in mind, but here in Knokke it remains true that the Belgian beers remain enormously diverse and of exceptional quality. And there are hundreds of people seated each afternoon at cocktail tables in concessions managed by restaurateurs who are quaffing the beers and socializing.

In conclusion, I strongly urge RT or Russian state television to send a crew here to Knokke to see that the end of the world is not nigh in Western Europe. And also to see that Belgian society is not ‘tired of the Ukraine war,’ as the Russian ambassador recently commented to the press.  Leaving aside Prime Minister De Croo and his politician buddies, Belgian society is utterly indifferent to the war and focused on its own pleasures and challenges.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Ist der Westen hoffnungslos vom “Satanismus” überwältigt, wie russische Medien suggerieren?

In seinem kürzlich erschienenen Buch The Russian Art of War (Die russische Kriegskunst), das ich allen wärmstens empfehle, die verstehen wollen, warum und wie westliche Politiker und Medienexperten die Ukraine zu einer tragischen Niederlage verurteilt haben, hebt der Autor Jacques Baud den Unterschied zwischen Propaganda und Desinformation hervor. Erstere neigt dazu, die eigenen Vorteile ins Unermessliche zu steigern, während letztere die Gegner schlichtweg belügt.

In diesem Zusammenhang muss ich sagen, dass die russischen Staatsmedien seit vielen Monaten Desinformation betreiben, indem sie den Mythos vom Niedergang und drohenden Untergang der westlichen Zivilisation unter dem Druck der LGBTQ+-Bewegung, des Amok laufenden Säkularismus und anderer abartiger Verhaltensweisen verbreiten, die heute in vielen amerikanischen Bundesstaaten und in den fortschrittlichsten EU-Ländern als “Inklusivismus” gefeiert werden.

Die visuellen Demonstrationen in Sechzig Minuten und Abend mit Vladimir Solovyov über den “Satanismus”, der ihrer Meinung nach den Westen überrollt habe und das Vorspiel zu seinem Zusammenbruch sei, und zwar gemäß der weisen Beobachtung aus der Vergangenheit, “wen die Götter vernichten wollen, den machen zuerst verrückt”, diese Videos stammen von großen amerikanischen und europäischen Fernsehsendern. Natürlich wurde der größte Teil der Berichterstattung im Westen von Produzenten erstellt, die Boulevardjournalismus betreiben. Geschichten über UFOs und Videos von Paraden der moralisch Verkommenen verkaufen Zeitungen und verbessern die Einschaltquoten.

Für das russische Staatsfernsehen dient das alles jedoch dem laufenden Informationskrieg, in dem der Kreml der verleumderischen, gegen Putin gerichteten, antirussischen Darstellung aus Washington, London und Brüssel seine eigene Darstellung entgegensetzt, in der Russland der Verteidiger traditioneller Werte gegen die Satanisten und Perversen ist, die jetzt in den westlichen Ländern herrschen. Das russische Fernsehen strahlt Sondersendungen darüber aus, wie normale, gottesfürchtige Christen, die im Westen leben, nach Russland umsiedeln, um ihre Kinder in einer moralisch gesunden Umgebung aufzuziehen.

Ich schreibe Ihnen heute aus Knokke, einem Ferienort an der belgischen Küste, 120 km von Brüssel und 20 km von Brügge entfernt, dem Epizentrum des Auslandstourismus in Belgien, wo die Realität um mich herum in meiner Mietwohnung alle Vorstellungen vom moralischen Verfall und möglichen Untergang des Westens völlig umstößt. In der Tat könnte Wladimir Putin morgen hierher ziehen und sich mit der Art und Weise, wie traditionelle Werte das tägliche Leben beherrschen, völlig wohl fühlen.

Diese Stadt mit 33.000 Einwohnern ist wahrscheinlich die reichste pro Kopf in Belgien. Das ist erwähnenswert, denn der Kreuzzug gegen die traditionellen Werte wird überall von den Eliten geführt, nicht vom “Mann auf der Straße”, und zwar aus Gründen des politischen Gewinns durch den Aspekt des “Teile und Herrsche” der Identitätspolitik. Ich sage “wohlhabend” in einem eingeschränkten Sinne: Wenn Einzimmerwohnungen für eine halbe Million und Familienwohnungen für zwei oder drei Millionen Euro verkauft werden, sind die Eigentümer genau genommen “Millionäre”. Gleichzeitig sind sie aber keine Milliardäre, die ihre Feriendomizile eher an den Ufern des Comer Sees in Italien oder an anderen prestigeträchtigen Orten im Ausland haben. Ich vermute, dass die Leute, die ich in diesen Tagen vor Saisonbeginn an der Digue (wörtlich “Deich”, aber in Wirklichkeit ein sehr breiter Bürgersteig, der an den Strand grenzt) flanieren sehe, erfolgreiche Inhaber von Kleinunternehmen, Führungskräfte in großen Unternehmen und hohe Beamte sind, die alle für ihren Lebensunterhalt arbeiten. Es sind Belgier mit einer kleinen Beimischung von urlaubenden Deutschen, Franzosen und Besuchern aus anderen nahe gelegenen Ländern. Während der Hochsaison gibt es eine große Anzahl von Tagesbesuchern, die aus allen Schichten der belgischen Gesellschaft kommen und die ich im Folgenden nicht berücksichtigen werde.

Der überwältigende Eindruck ist, dass Knokke ein Familienort ist. Es gibt viele junge Paare, die Kinderwagen mit ihrem frisch geschlüpften Nachwuchs schieben oder Kleinkinder und Kinder im Kindergartenalter begleiten, die ihre ersten Fahrten auf Rollern oder Fahrrädern unternehmen. Aber es gibt auch viele Rentner, die an Wochenenden oder in den Ferien auf ihre Enkelkinder aufpassen, während sich die Eltern eine Auszeit nehmen.

Ein Rückgang der Fruchtbarkeit scheint in Flandern nicht zu bestehen. Viele Paare haben zwei oder drei Kinder im Schlepptau. Unter den Jugendlichen gibt es ‘Girl Power’-Dreier, und die Jungen sind in ähnlichen Gruppen organisiert. Aber im Dating-Alter sehe ich nur heterosexuelle Paare.

Ich zweifle nicht daran, dass die traditionelle Regel von 10 % Homosexuellen in der Bevölkerung von Knokke zutrifft, aber wie in der Vergangenheit gibt es hier keine aggressive Werbung für alternative Lebensstile, keine “in your face”-Paraden. Es gibt keine geschlechtsneutralen Toiletten und keine Werbung für geschlechtsangleichende Operationen in den Medien.

Mitten im Einkaufsviertel von Knokke gibt es eine gut gepflegte katholische Kirche. Dort findet sonntags um 11.30 Uhr eine Messe statt, die ich vielleicht später am Tag besuchen werde, um die Besucher zu zählen. Aber in einer stark kommerziell geprägten Kultur wie der in Knokke ist die Religion kein wichtiger sozialer Faktor. Bei uns kann man sieben Tage die Woche einkaufen, und die Geschäfte sind am Sonntag genauso voll wie an den anderen Tagen.

Die Stimmung hier ist ‘la vie en rose’, denn die guten Zeiten gehen weiter, zumindest für diese Schicht der Bevölkerung. Dieses gute Leben konzentriert sich auf die unschuldigen Freuden der Tafel. In Knokke gibt es viele sehr gute Restaurants und auch einige Restaurants von gastronomischem Rang. Sie scheinen alle gut besucht zu sein. Die Konzentration ist hier viel größer als in Brüssel. Darüber hinaus gibt es eine große Anzahl erstklassiger Traiteure, d.h. Caterer, von denen viele zubereitete und portionierte Gourmetgerichte zum Mitnehmen anbieten, die nur halb so viel kosten wie in Restaurants.

Wofür ist ein Strand am kalten Wasser des Ärmelkanals sonst gut, wenn nicht dafür, mit einem Krug Bier und ein paar Chips oder Erdnüssen in der Hand auf das Meer oder auf die Bummelanten zu schauen? Mein Großvater, der aus Litauen stammte, sagte oft, dass es kein schlechtes Bier gibt. Ich weiß nicht genau, was er damit meinte, aber hier in Knokke sind die belgischen Biere nach wie vor sehr vielfältig und von außergewöhnlicher Qualität. Und jeden Nachmittag sitzen Hunderte von Menschen an Cocktailtischen in von Gastronomen betriebenen Lokalen, um Bier zu trinken und sich zu unterhalten.

Abschließend möchte ich RT oder das russische Staatsfernsehen dringend bitten, ein Team nach Knokke zu schicken, um zu sehen, dass das Ende der Welt in Westeuropa nicht nahe ist. Und auch, um zu sehen, dass die belgische Gesellschaft nicht “des Ukraine-Krieges überdrüssig” ist, wie der russische Botschafter kürzlich gegenüber der Presse erklärte. Sieht man einmal von Premierminister De Croo und seinen Politikerkollegen ab, so ist der belgischen Gesellschaft der Krieg völlig gleichgültig und sie konzentriert sich auf ihre eigenen Vergnügungen und Herausforderungen.

Europe’s sinking economy:  how many causes can we name while ignoring the Russia factor?

As  I indicated in my last essay, a great deal of information that would allow one independently to come to a comprehensive understanding of what is going on in the world is available in mainstream media, however counterintuitive that may be for those who revile the Washington narrative and its commercial purveyors.  However, the facts we need to know are either buried deep in articles that have titles and opening paragraphs that contradict the content lower down OR as I wrote in that last essay, they are separate dots that are never connected by the journalists and their editors to draw the big picture they do not want to see.

My case today is not taken from the Ukraine war but from its consequences: the visible and statistically demonstrated decline of the European economy and in particular of the country that has long been celebrated as its locomotive, Germany.

This issue has featured in much of the reporting of The Financial Times and other major media these last several weeks when numbers for the economic performance at the end of last year and start of this year have been published. The latest growth estimate for Europe put out by the European Central Bank is an anemic 0.6% while Germany is likely entering a second quarter of recession.

A lot has been written about the leading causes of the bad economic results, in the expectation that once they are identified suitable corrective measures can be put in place. Of late, attention has been directed at the weak capital markets in Europe, compared to the United States, for example, all of which deprives industry of funds for investment that will raise productivity and make Europe more competitive on world markets.

Additional points for discussion are eagerly awaited from Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister and former President of the European Central Bank, who has been tasked by the European Commission to deliver recommendations on how European competitiveness might be improved.

However, these approaches overlook the fact that deficient capital markets and the many other handicaps that Draghi is likely to name have been around for a long time but that the present stark weakness of the German economy is something very new and, frankly astonishing, to anyone who cares to look at the figures on the collapse of German automobile manufacturing, for example.

Going back six months or more there were articles in our press and feature programs on the BBC and other media recounting how German industrialists are moving abroad and making new manufacturing investments there rather than in their homeland.  At that time the high cost of energy ever since Russian pipeline gas was discontinued following the destruction of Nord Stream I was openly mentioned as a factor in the deindustrialization of Germany.

However, that objectivity and frankness has since been put aside. In a BBC report on German industry a week ago, I heard that high energy costs due to the end of cheap Russian gas is not a significant factor in Germany’s economic travails since only 6% of German industry is very energy dependent.

Today, when European gas prices have dropped dramatically from the record levels of late 2022, there is some truth in reducing the weight we give to energy when explaining the German economic decline that is ongoing. However, natural gas has a far greater role in economic and social life than just to fuel the metallurgical or glass industries.  It also is feedstock for the chemical and related industries as well as for fertilizers needed to maintain German and European agricultural output.  Moreover, the decision of the German and European governments to prioritize geopolitics over domestic economic performance has been a very clear message to industry that Europe is not the place they want to be. Industrialists may not say much in public, but their falling investment here speaks volumes.

The facts are so obvious when you look at them that even the propagandists at The Financial Times have been obliged to give them space. See the article a day ago entitled “German industry unlikely to fully recover from energy crisis, warns RWE boss.” Here you see it in black and white: “German industry is unlikely to recover to pre-Ukraine war levels as elevated prices from imported liquefied natural gas have put Europe’s largest economy at a ‘disadvantage’, the chief of one of Germany’s leading energy companies has warned.”

This is not Russian propaganda.  It is highly authoritative and responsible German executives speaking and they are reported in the viciously anti-Russian FT.  No investigative journalists like Sy Hersh need apply to light the way for the general public.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Translation below into German (Andreas Mylaeus)

Europas sinkende Wirtschaft: Wie viele Ursachen können wir nennen und dabei den Faktor Russland ignorieren?

Wie ich in meinem letzten Aufsatz angedeutet habe, finden sich in den Mainstream-Medien viele Informationen, die es einem ermöglichen würden, sich unabhängig ein umfassendes Bild davon zu machen, was in der Welt vor sich geht, so kontraintuitiv das auch für diejenigen sein mag, die das Washingtoner Narrativ und seine kommerziellen Überbringer verachten. Die Fakten, die wir wissen müssen, sind jedoch entweder tief in Artikeln vergraben, deren Titel und einleitende Absätze dem Inhalt weiter unten widersprechen, oder sie sind, wie ich in diesem letzten Aufsatz schrieb, einzelne Punkte, die von den Journalisten und ihren Redakteuren nie miteinander verbunden werden, um das große Bild zu zeichnen, das sie nicht sehen wollen.

Mein heutiger Fall bezieht sich nicht auf den Krieg in der Ukraine, sondern auf seine Folgen: den sichtbaren und statistisch belegten Niedergang der europäischen Wirtschaft und insbesondere des Landes, das lange Zeit als ihre Lokomotive gefeiert wurde, Deutschland.

Dieses Thema hat in den letzten Wochen einen Großteil der Berichterstattung der Financial Times und anderer großer Medien bestimmt, als die Zahlen für die Wirtschaftsleistung zum Ende des letzten und Anfang dieses Jahres veröffentlicht wurden. Die jüngste Wachstumsschätzung der Europäischen Zentralbank für Europa beläuft sich auf magere 0,6 %, während Deutschland wahrscheinlich in ein zweites Quartal der Rezession eintritt.

Es wurde viel über die Hauptursachen für die schlechten wirtschaftlichen Ergebnisse geschrieben, in der Erwartung, dass, sobald sie identifiziert sind, geeignete Korrekturmaßnahmen ergriffen werden können. In letzter Zeit wurde die Aufmerksamkeit auf die im Vergleich zu den Vereinigten Staaten schwachen Kapitalmärkte in Europa gelenkt, die der Industrie Mittel für Investitionen vorenthalten, die die Produktivität steigern und Europa auf den Weltmärkten wettbewerbsfähiger machen würden.

Weitere Diskussionspunkte werden mit Spannung von Mario Draghi, dem ehemaligen italienischen Ministerpräsidenten und ehemaligen Präsidenten der Europäischen Zentralbank, erwartet, der von der Europäischen Kommission beauftragt wurde, Empfehlungen zur Verbesserung der europäischen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit vorzulegen.

Dabei wird jedoch übersehen, dass es unzulängliche Kapitalmärkte und die vielen anderen Handicaps, die Draghi wahrscheinlich aufzählen wird, schon seit langem gibt, dass aber die derzeitige eklatante Schwäche der deutschen Wirtschaft etwas ganz Neues ist und, offen gesagt, für jeden, der sich die Zahlen über den Zusammenbruch der deutschen Automobilproduktion ansieht, erstaunlich ist.

Vor mehr als sechs Monaten wurde in der Presse und in Sendungen der BBC und anderer Medien darüber berichtet, dass deutsche Industrielle ins Ausland abwandern und dort neue Investitionen tätigen, anstatt in ihrem Heimatland zu produzieren. Damals wurden die hohen Energiekosten, die seit dem Wegfall der russischen Gaspipeline nach der Zerstörung von Nord Stream I anfallen, offen als ein Faktor für die Deindustrialisierung Deutschlands genannt.

Diese Objektivität und Offenheit wurde jedoch inzwischen beiseite geschoben. In einem BBC-Bericht über die deutsche Industrie vor einer Woche hörte ich, dass die hohen Energiekosten aufgrund des Wegfalls des billigen russischen Gases kein wesentlicher Faktor für die wirtschaftliche Misere in Deutschland seien, da nur 6 % der deutschen Industrie stark energieabhängig seien.

Heute, da die europäischen Gaspreise gegenüber den Rekordwerten von Ende 2022 drastisch gesunken sind, ist es richtig, dass wir der Energie bei der Erklärung des anhaltenden wirtschaftlichen Niedergangs in Deutschland weniger Bedeutung beimessen. Erdgas spielt jedoch im wirtschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Leben eine weitaus größere Rolle als nur als Brennstoff für die Metall- oder Glasindustrie. Es ist auch Ausgangsstoff für die chemische und verwandte Industrien sowie für Düngemittel, die zur Aufrechterhaltung der deutschen und europäischen landwirtschaftlichen Produktion benötigt werden. Darüber hinaus war die Entscheidung der deutschen und europäischen Regierungen, der Geopolitik Vorrang vor der heimischen Wirtschaftsleistung einzuräumen, eine sehr klare Botschaft an die Industrie, dass Europa nicht der Ort ist, an dem sie sein möchte. Industrielle mögen in der Öffentlichkeit nicht viel sagen, aber ihre sinkenden Investitionen hier sprechen Bände.

Die Fakten sind so offensichtlich, dass sogar die Propagandisten der Financial Times gezwungen waren, ihnen Raum zu geben. Siehe den Artikel von vorgestern mit der Überschrift “German industry unlikely to fully recover from energy crisis, warns RWE boss” (“Die deutsche Industrie wird sich wahrscheinlich nicht vollständig von der Energiekrise erholen, warnt der RWE-Chef”). Hier sehen Sie es schwarz auf weiß: “Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass sich die deutsche Industrie auf das Niveau vor dem Ukraine-Krieg erholt, da die hohen Preise für importiertes Flüssiggas Europas größte Volkswirtschaft ‘benachteiligt’ haben, warnte der Chef eines der führenden deutschen Energieunternehmen.”

Dies ist keine russische Propaganda. Es sind höchst maßgebliche und verantwortungsbewusste deutsche Führungskräfte, die hier sprechen und über die in der bösartig antirussischen FT berichtet wird. Investigative Journalisten wie Sy Hersh brauchen sich nicht zu bewerben, um für die Öffentlichkeit Licht ins Dunkel zu bringen.